Announcement

**Udog** · 03-02-2021, 09:46 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

More over/under major league win totals (from DraftKings):
87.5— Oakland A’s!!!!
86.5— Astros, Cardinals, Blue Jays
85.5— Rays
84.5— Nationals
83.5— Angels
82.5— Reds, Brewers

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 513,112
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

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Armadillo: Tuesday's Den: 13 of my most memorable NCAA Tournament games:

13) Georgetown 50, Princeton 49— 1989 first round. It would be another 29 years before a #1-seed lost to a 16-seed, but Pete Carril’s Tigers came damn close in this game.

Dick Vitale was in the ESPN studio with Bob Ley that night; he says on the air if Princeton wins the game, he’ll stand on his head on the set, on the air. He damn near had to do it. Georgetown had Alonzo Mourning that year; they wound up losing in the regional final.

12) Villanova 77, North Carolina 74— 2016 national title game. I’m sitting in the Westgate SuperBook watching this game, guy sitting next to me has Villanova and the under. From the sound of his voice and his tension level, he had a lot of money on both.

Guard on North Carolina (Marcus Paige?) hits a tough shot to tie the game and put the game over the total; the guy next to me slumped in his chair, but when Kris Jenkins drained a long shot to win the national title, the guy cheered up, a lot. That night, splitting his bets was a very good thing.

11) Kansas 83, Oklahoma 79— 1988 national title game. Over the last 35 years, this was only time the underdog won all three games at the Final Four. Kansas was a #6-seed; it would be another 26 years before a lower seed (#7-seed UConn in 2014) would win a national title.

Billy Tubbs coached Oklahoma back then; I loved watching his teams, they played and with great confidence. This game was 50-50 at halftime, two conference rivals going at it, but the Jayhawks had Danny Manning, and he led them to a surprising national championship.

10) Vermont 60, Syracuse 57 OT— 2005 first round. Back then, group of us would gather at an Off Track Betting sports bar, hunker down for four days and watch games for 12 hours a day. Lot of fun, lot of bantering back/forth. Wish the casino in Schenectady was around back then.

This was the year Tom Brennan coached Vermont to a big upset in the first round; they were a 9-point underdog in this game. Brennan later became a talk radio star, after he retired from coaching- his Catamounts lost their next game by 11 to Michigan State.

9) Northern Iowa 69, Kansas 67 OT— 2010 2nd round. I was at the MGM Grand watching this game; lot of Kansas fans were around, very cocky that their team was headed to the Sweet 16- they were the #1-seed in that region.

Problem is, no one told Northern Iowa; they hit a 3-pointer late in the game, pulled the big upset and made a lot of Jayhawk fans very sad.

That was the week I’m watching a game, kid scores a basket very early in the game and the three guys next to me start hugging each other and yelling. I ask them if that was their brother who scored that basket— they said no, they had Wake Forest in their “first to 15” bet.

I had no idea that MGM offered a bet where you picked which team got to 15 points first.

8) North Carolina 77, Oregon 76— 2017 national semifinal. Watched this game in Las Vegas with a friend of mine who had a very, very large bet on Oregon. He had both underdogs that day, and over the last 35 years, that day was the only time in national semifinals where both underdogs lost, but both covered, so he had a really good day.

South Carolina was a #7-seed that surprisingly made the Final Four that year; since then, Gamecocks are 32-36 in SEC games, and haven’t been back in NCAAs. Tough place to win.

7) North Carolina 71, Gonzaga 65— 2017 national final. This was two nights after the two dogs had covered the semi-final games. I’m at the SouthPoint sportsbook, and I sit next to three younger guys, all from San Diego. It was also opening night of baseball season.

For the next 3-4 hours, we shot the breeze about everything, mostly sports, but some other stuff too. They told me that Steve Fisher needed to retire at San Diego State (he did, right after that). First time I ever had a quesadilla (they’re good!!). Living proof that all Americans have more in common than what separates us.

6) Georgia Tech 93, Minnesota 91— 1990 regional final. I had the Gophers +3.5. Minnesota has the ball at the end, no chance to win, kid drains a 3 from the right corner at the buzzer, to send me home happy.

Long, long time ago, went to the NIT Final Four in New York City. This is 1984 or so, when I had just started working. All I remember about that night:
— Fresno State had really pretty cheerleaders who threw small boxes of raisins into the stands. Apparently, they grow a lot of raisins in Fresno.
— Someone scored a basket late in the game to cover the spread; these three guys in front of us starting yelling and hugging each other. Winning money makes you happy.
— Long busride back to Albany, then I went right to work— I was on the midnight-8am shift back then, looking at fingerprints. That was a long freakin’ night.

5) Murray State 83, Marquette 64— 2019 first round. Not a pleasant memory; I picked this game over the total, should have had Murray and the over. Marquette had no answer for Ja Morant and the Racers were going to hang 100 on a Big East team, the game was going to go way over the total, but the Marquette coach retreated his team into a zone defense and refused to try and win, to avoid embarrassment. No bueno.

Gamer stayed under the total; lets just say…….I wasn’t happy ��

4) UNLV 103, Duke 73— 1990 national title game. Wish I was in Las Vegas for this game, the night Jerry Tarkanian won his first national title. What a team that was; Larry Johnson, Greg Anthony, Stacey Augmon. Lot of midnight games on ESPN for that crew.

Back then, Big Monday was a tripleheader: Big East at 7, Big 10 at 9, Big West at midnight, after SportsCenter. UNLV was in the Big West back then; they were like Gonzaga is now, a very big fish in a fairly small pond. Lot of fun to watch.

3) Northwestern State 64, Iowa 63— 2006 first round. This was a 3-14 game; Demons were a 7-point underdog. I had gone on a local radio show when the brackets came out and predicted an outright win for Northwestern State, so I was pretty excited when it happened.

Couple years later down in Orlando, I’m watching an AAU game down in Florida and the Northwestern State coach sits next to me. I told him the story, thanked him; he told me how one of his former players was going to graduate school at Iowa that year, had given him a great scouting report on the Hawkeyes. Luckily for me.

2) Loyola Marymount 111, New Mexico State 92— 1990 first round. LMU’s first game since the tragic death of Hank Gathers during the WCC tournament, 12 days earlier.

Game was tied at halftime; Bo Kimble, LMU’s best player, had four fouls at halftime but the Lions exploded in the second half and won going away. Kimble shot his first foul shot lefty to honor his fallen teammate. LMU won two more games before losing in the regional final.

**Udog** · 03-02-2021, 09:49 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Tuesday, March 2

**Udog** · 03-02-2021, 09:50 AM

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, March 2

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**Udog** · 03-02-2021, 09:52 AM

NCAAB

Tuesday, March 2

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Trend Report
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**Udog** · 03-02-2021, 09:56 AM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, March 2

Baylor @ West Virginia
Baylor (18-1, 10-1)
— ranked #3 by KenPom
— Tempo: #176
— Experience: #99
— Continuity: #35
— Baylor split two games, after its 21-day pause.
— Bears are forcing turnovers 25.7% of time (#3)
— Baylor is grabbing 36.9% of its missed shots (#5).

West Virginia (17-6, 10-4)
— ranked #19 by KenPom
— Tempo: #126
— Experience: #152
— Continuity: #34
— WVU won three in row, six of last seven games.
— Mountaineers’ last four losses were all by 5 or fewer points.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— WVU is grabbing 35.4% of its missed shots (#16).

— Baylor won three of last four series games.
— Bears lost four of last five visits to Morgantown.

Xavier @ Georgetown
Xavier (13-5, 6-5)
— ranked #55 by KenPom
— Tempo: #145
— Experience: #145
— Continuity: #188
— Xavier lost three of their last five games overall.
— Musketeers are shooting 55.1% inside arc (#24), has #54 eFG%.
— Xavier is 11-2 vs teams outside the top 50.

Georgetown (8-11, 6-8)
— ranked #89 by KenPom
— Tempo: #111
— Experience: #59
— Continuity: #249
— Georgetown won three of its last four games.
— Hoyas are turning ball over 22.6% of time (#323)
— Georgetown is getting 36% of its points on arc (#55) (36.3%, #63)

— Xavier won eight of last nine series games.
— Musketeers won five of last six visits here.

Illinois @ Michigan
Illinois (18-6, 14-4)
— ranked #6 by KenPom
— Tempo: #172
— Experience: #219
— Continuity: #47
— Illinois won nine of its last ten games.
— Illini star Dosunmu (nose) isn’t expected to play here.
— Illinois is shooting 55.7% inside arc (#19)

Michigan (18-1, 13-1)
— ranked #2 by KenPom
— Tempo: #226
— Experience: #58
— Continuity: #151
— Michigan won its last seven games, giving up 57-57 in last two.
— Michigan is shooting 39% on the arc (#11)
— Wolverines have #2 eFG% defense (#2 inside arc)

— Michigan won six of last nine series games.
— Illini lost five of last six visits to Ann Arbor.

Fresno State @ Boise State
Fresno State (10-10, 8-10)
— ranked #200 by KenPom
— Tempo: #303
— Experience: #302
— Continuity: #301
— Fresno lost three of its last four games overall.
— Bulldogs are turning ball over 21.5% of time (#295)
— Fresno has #250 eFG% in country (#285 on arc, #185 inside arc).

Boise State (18-6, 14-5)
— ranked #52 by KenPom
— Tempo: #133
— Experience: #70
— Continuity: #246
— Broncos split their last ten games.
— Boise is 11-0 SU at home this season.
— Broncos are #25 in country on defensive boards.

— Bulldogs lost 73-51 in Boise January 20.
— Teams split last eight series games.
— Fresno lost 13 of last 15 visits to Boise (2-2 in last four)

Duke @ Georgia Tech
Duke (11-9, 9-7)
— ranked #36 by KenPom
— Tempo: #162
— Experience: #344
— Continuity: #252
— Duke won four of its last five games.
— Blue Devils are shooting 54.3% inside arc (#38)
— Duke is getting only 13% of its points on foul line (#344)

Georgia Tech (13-8, 9-6)
— ranked #30 by KenPom
— Tempo: #122
— Experience: #4
— Continuity: #9
— Tech won its last four games, giving up 63.8 ppg.
— Yellow Jackets are forcing turnovers 22.2% of time (#38)
— Tech is shooting 54.5% inside arc (#35)

— Tech lost 75-68 in Durham January 26.
— Duke won last 14 series games.
— Blue Devils won last five visits here, all by 7+ points.

Indiana @ Michigan State
Indiana (12-12, 7-10)
— ranked #37 by KenPom
— Tempo: #283
— Experience: #283
— Continuity: #81
— Indiana lost its last three games, by 7-11-16 points.
— Hoosiers are shooting 48.6% inside arc (#222).
— Indiana is getting 22% of its points on foul line (#27)

Michigan State (13-10, 7-10)
— ranked #63 by KenPom
— Tempo: #163
— Experience: #196
— Continuity: #77
— Spartans won three of their last four games.
— Michigan State has #234 eFG% in country.
— Spartans are 6-1 last seven times they scored 66+ points.

— Spartans won 78-71 at Indiana February 20.
— Indiana is 4-3 in last seven series games.
— Hoosiers lost four of last five games in Breslin Center.

Memphis @ South Florida
Memphis (14-6, 10-3)
— ranked #47 by KenPom
— Tempo: #34
— Experience: #322
— Continuity: #67
— Memphis won five in row, eight of last nine games.
— Tigers have #3 eFG% defense in country.
— Memphis is turning ball over 22.5% of time (#321).

South Florida (8-10, 4-8)
— ranked #149 by KenPom
— Tempo: #270
— Experience: #139
— Continuity: #76
— USF lost five of its last six games.
— Last four home games, Bulls scored only 54.4 ppg.
— USF has #321 eFG%, shooting 42.9% inside arc (#340)

— Bulls lost 58-57 at Memphis December 29.
— Teams split last six meetings.
— Tigers won three of last four visits to Tampa.

Wisconsin @ Purdue
Wisconsin (16-9, 10-8)
— ranked #11 by KenPom
— Tempo: #325
— Experience: #19
— Continuity: #13
— Wisconsin is 4-6 in its last ten games overall.
— Badgers have won four of last six road games.
— Badgers are shooting 46.2% inside arc (#292)

Purdue (16-8, 11-6)
— ranked #13 by KenPom
— Tempo: #274
— Experience: #328
— Continuity: #113
— Purdue won its last three games, by 10-17-21 points.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— In their last three games, Boilers scored 74.3 ppg.
— Purdue is a top 40 rebounding team in country.

— Purdue won six of last eight series games.
— Badgers lost last four games in Mackey Arena, by 11-11-28-19 points.

Kentucky @ Ole Miss
Kentucky (8-14, 7-8)
— ranked #53 by KenPom
— Tempo: #201
— Experience: #339
— Continuity: #342
— Kentucky won three of its last four games.
— Wildcats are grabbing 33.5% of their own missed shots (#31)
— Kentucky has #301 eFG% in country (45.5% inside arc, #311)

Ole Miss (13-10, 8-8)
— ranked #58 by KenPom
— Tempo: #312
— Experience: #93
— Continuity: #213
— Rebels were on 5-1 roll before losing last game, at Vandy.
— Ole Miss is shooting 28.5% inside arc (#339)
— Ole Miss is forcing turnovers 24% of time (#7)

— Kentucky won last 11 series games.
— Wildcats won last four visits to Oxford, by 13-14-23-4 points.

Horizon tournament (@ campus sites)
Fort Wayne @ Cleveland State
Fort Wayne (8-14, 7-14)
— ranked #277 by KenPom
— Tempo: #98
— Experience: #72
— Continuity: #167
— Mastodons upset Green Bay in double OT Thursday.
— Fort Wayne lost nine of its last eleven games.
— Fort Wayne are turning ball over 24.2% of time (#342)
— Last four years, Mastodons went 2-4 in Summit tourney.

Cleveland State (16-7, 16-4)
— ranked #153 by KenPom
— Tempo: #286
— Experience: #71
— Continuity: #121
— Cleveland State hasn’t played in ten days.
— Vikings won six of their last eight games.
— Cleveland State is #305 team on defensive boards.
— Last nine years, Vikings are 4-8 in Horizon tourney, 2-5 in first game.

— These teams split pair in Fort Wayne, February 19-20

Detroit @ Northern Kentucky
Detroit (12-9, 11-6)
— ranked #141 by KenPom
— Tempo: #215
— Experience: #18
— Continuity: #206
— Detroit won 11 of its last 13 games.
— Titans are shooting 39% on the arc (#12).
— Detroit has #318 eFG% defense in country.
— Detroit is 3-7 in Horizon tourney, since they won it in 2012.

Northern Kentucky (13-10, 11-7)
— ranked #187 by KenPom
— Tempo: #316
— Experience: #301
— Continuity: #171
— NKU won eight of its last ten games.
— Norse is 2-6 vs teams ranked in top 200.
— Opponents are shooting 35% on arc (#244).
— NKU hasn’t played in ten days; they’ve won this tournament three of last four years.

— NKU is 8-1 vs Detroit in Horizon meetings.
— Titans are 0-4 at NKU, with all four losses by 14+ points.

Milwaukee @ Wright State
Milwaukee (9-11, 8-10)
— ranked #216 by KenPom
— Tempo: #106
— Experience: #179
— Continuity: #143
— Milwaukee lost five of its last seven games.
— Opponents are shooting 37.8% on the arc (#321).
— Panthers lost five of their last seven road games.

Wright State (18-5, 16-4)
— ranked #60 by KenPom
— Tempo: #65
— Experience: #288
— Continuity: #94
— Raiders haven’t played in ten days.
— Wright State has #8 eFG% defense in country.
— Raiders won 10 of their last 11 games.
— Last five years, Wright State is 8-4 in this event, winning it in 2018.

— Wright St beat Milwaukee 92-81/92-82 in Dayton, February 12-13.
— Raiders won six of last seven series games.
— Panthers lost last four visits here, by 2-12-11-10 points.

Youngstown State @ Oakland
Youngstown State (15-11, 10-11)
— ranked #226 by KenPom
— Tempo: #207
— Experience: #198
— Continuity: #101
— Youngstown won six of its last seven D-I games.
— Penguins have #320 eFG% defense in country.
— YSU is grabbing 33.1% of its missed shots (#39)
— Youngstown is 4-7 in this event, winning twice in 2017.

Oakland (10-17, 10-10)
— ranked #207 by KenPom
— Tempo: #108
— Experience: #271
— Continuity: #271
— Oakland lost four of last six games; their last two losses were both in 2OT’s.
— Grizzlies have #338 eFG% defense in country.
— Oakland is 6-6 vs teams ranked outside top 200.
— Oakland went W-L in this event the last three years.

— Penguins lost 82-65/81-74 at Oakland, on January 15-16.
— Oakland won four of last five series games.
— Youngstown lost last four visits here, by 4-8-17-7 points.

**Udog** · 03-02-2021, 09:57 AM

601UTRGV -602 NEW MEXICO ST
NEW MEXICO ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=16 assists/game over the last 2 seasons.

603AKRON -604 BUFFALO
AKRON is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons.

605TOLEDO -606 C MICHIGAN
TOLEDO is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds in the current season.

607BAYLOR -608 W VIRGINIA
BAYLOR is 12-1 ATS (10.9 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.

609WAKE FOREST -610 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games in the last 3 seasons.

611ARKANSAS -612 S CAROLINA
S CAROLINA is 40-66 ATS (-32.6 Units) in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games since 1997.

613TEXAS -614 IOWA ST
TEXAS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=18 free throws/game in the current season.

615TCU -616 TEXAS TECH
TCU is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.

617XAVIER -618 GEORGETOWN
GEORGETOWN is 47-69 ATS (-28.9 Units) in home games vs. good teams (Win Pct: 60% to 80%) since 1997.

619TULSA -620 UCF
UCF is 16-2 ATS (13.8 Units) in home games after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games since 1997.

Announcement

Tuesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/2

Tuesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/2

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