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  • Sunday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 2/28

    Trends and Indexes

    Sunday, February 28

    Good Luck on day #59 of 2021!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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  • #2
    Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

    Six guys who were student managers for their college hoop teams:
    — Auburn coach Bruce Pearl (Boston College)
    — LSU coach Will Wade (Clemson)
    — Clippers’ executive Lawrence Frank (Indiana)
    — Thunder coach Mar Daigneault (UConn)
    — Texas Tech coach Chris Beard (Texas)
    — Iowa State coach Steve Prohm (Alabama)

    Americans who have died from COVID-19: 510,658
    PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.


    **********

    Armadillo: Sunday's Den: Wrapping up a basketball Saturday……

    13) Will any of this season’s scheduling oddities become normal in the future? Will playing two games at one site over 2-3 days, which reduces travel, become the new normal, or will things go back to the way they were last year?

    Friday nights have always been a slow night for college hoop, but this year, Fridays have been busier than Wednesday/Thursdays. I’m guessing the TV people would prefer leaving Fridays to the NBA and getting college games back to mid-week dates, but that remains to be seen.

    12) Alabama basketball coach Nate Oats recently signed a contract extension that will pay him $3.225M/year, not bad for a guy who, eight years ago, was a high school Math teacher and the basketball coach at a Michigan HS. He taught at the school for 11 years; now he’s rich.

    Alabama is 19-6 this year, 14-2 in the SEC; they’ll be a high seed in the NCAA’s.

    11) Oklahoma State 94, Oklahoma 90, OT— Cade Cunningham scored 40 points for OSU, in an impressive one-man show. Cunningham’s brother was hired as an assistant coach by the Cowboys last year, as an inducement for his brother to come to Stillwater.

    Whatever they’re paying the brother, it ain’t enough. Oklahoma State will play in the NCAA’s before they get their probation from the NCAAs. Cunningham will be a walking advertisement for the Oklahoma State program when he plays in the NBA.

    10) Louisville 80, Duke 73 OT
    — Cardinals blew a 12-point lead, but pulled away for the OT win.
    — ESPN’s Jay Bilas (a Duke alum) calls most Duke games, but he was at Kansas-Baylor, so ESPN showed they give Duke no special treatment— Chris Spatola was the analyst. He is Coach K’s son-in-law.

    Oy.

    9) Kansas 71, Baylor 58— Bears lose for first time in 18 games; this was their second game back after a 21-day COVID pause. Selection Sunday is two weeks from today, so their first game in the NCAA Tournament is 18-19 days away. Will they have their legs back by then?

    8) North Carolina 78, Florida State 70
    — This was Roy Williams’ 900th career win; 482 at Carolina, 418 at Kansas.
    — Florida State led this game by 16 in the first half.
    — Peaks/valleys: Carolina got hammered at home by Marquette during the week.

    7) Upsets of the Day:
    — Tennessee Tech (+10.5) 71, Murray State 61
    — Northridge (+10) 90, Bakersfield 87
    — Rider (+9.5) 78, Saint Peter’s 65
    — Vanderbilt (+9.5) 75, Ole Miss 70
    — Auburn (+8) 77, Tennessee 72
    — Bradley (+8) 67, Drake 61
    — Oregon State (+7) 73, Stanford 62
    — Boston College (+7) 94, Notre Dame 90

    6) Texas Tech 68, Texas 59:
    — Longhorns are 4-6 in their last ten games, after a 10-1 start.
    — Tech’s win snaps a 3-game losing skid.

    5) Morehead State 89, Belmont 82, OT
    — Belmont lost twice this week, after starting the season 24-1.
    — Morehead was 31-39 on foul line, Belmont 14-19.

    4) Auburn 77, Tennessee 72— Tigers pull the upset without star G Sherife Cooper, who is out for the year. Excellent coaching job by Bruce Pearl, but also a disturbing loss for Tennessee, which looked lackluster in defeat. When network TV guys say it on the air, it had to be obvious.

    3) Arkansas 83, LSU 75— Razorbacks have won six in row, nine of last ten games. LSU takes lot of quick shots and doesn’t pass the ball so much- they’re 4-6 in their last ten games, after they started the season 10-2.

    2) Gonzaga 86, LMU 69— Gonzaga is the last unbeaten team in the country which puts the target right on their backs. Zags have one single-digit win the entire season (December 2nd vs West Virginia); when they have to play a close game in the NCAA’s, will that hurt them?

    1) There are a lot of teams who are capable of beating anyone on a given day, but it seems like there are very few teams who are consistently good. Winning a national title takes six wins a row, the last four (or five) over strong teams.

    The eventual national champ this year may be a team that gets help from upsets elsewhere in their bracket, not unlike Kansas in 1988.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 02-28-2021, 12:49 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      NCAAB
      Long Sheet

      Sunday, February 28


      Last edited by StarDust Bum; 02-28-2021, 12:34 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        NCAAB

        Sunday, February 28


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        Trend Report
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        Last edited by StarDust Bum; 02-28-2021, 12:34 PM.

        Comment


        • #5
          NCAAB
          Armadillo's Write-Up

          Sunday, February 28


          Memphis @ Cincinnati
          Memphis (13-6, 9-3)
          — ranked #46 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #36
          — Experience: #322
          — Continuity: #67
          — Memphis won four in row, seven of last eight games.
          — This is their 2nd game after an 18-day layoff.
          — Memphis has #2 eFG% defense in country.

          Cincinnati (9-8, 7-5)
          — ranked #97 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #62
          — Experience: #244
          — Continuity: #214
          — Bearcats won six of last seven games (5 of 6 wins were by 3 or less pts)
          — Cincinnati is 2-6 vs top 100 teams this season.
          — You’re reading ***************.com
          — Cincy is shooting 29.7% on arc (#316), 65.7% on line (#313)

          — Cincinnati won seven of last eight series games.
          — Memphis lost their last seven games in Cincinnati.

          South Florida @ Houston
          South Florida (8-9, 4-7)
          — ranked #139 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #268
          — Experience: #132
          — Continuity: #76
          — Bulls lost four of their last five games.
          — USF is shooting 43.3% inside arc (#336), has #322 eFG%.
          — Bulls are grabbing 35.2% of their missed shots (#17)

          Houston (19-3, 12-3)
          — ranked #4 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #305
          — Experience: #163
          — Continuity: #122
          — Houston is 3-2 in last five D-I games, after a 15-1 start.
          — They won last two games by 38-24 points, giving up 52-57 points.
          — Cougars have #1 eFG% defense in country.

          — Houston won 82-65 at USF February 10.
          — Cougars won last eight series games.
          — Bulls lost last three visits here, by 23-12-19 points.

          Pittsburgh @ NC State
          Pittsburgh (9-9, 5-8)
          — ranked #82 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #140
          — Experience: #299
          — Continuity: #110
          — Pitt lost four in row, seven of last eight games.
          — Panthers lost last three road games, by 1-7-6 points.
          — This is Pitt’s first game in eight days.

          NC State (11-9, 7-8)
          — ranked #71 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #184
          — Experience: #212
          — Continuity: #121
          — NC State won last three games, all on road, giving up 65 ppg.
          — Wolfpack lost their last three home games.
          — State is forcing turnovers 22.6% of time (#26)

          — Wolfpack won 74-73 at Pitt February 17.
          — State won last 11 series games.
          — Panthers lost last four visits to Raleigh, by 18-5-6-4 points.

          Villanova @ Butler
          Villanova (15-3, 10-2)
          — ranked #8 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #325
          — Experience: #123
          — Continuity: #6
          — Villanova won 13 of its last 15 games overall.
          — Wildcats lost last two road games, at St John’s/Creighton.
          — Villanova has #37 eFG% in country (#28 on arc, #65 inside arc).

          Butler (8-13, 7-11)
          — ranked #124 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #328
          — Experience: #187
          — Continuity: #237
          — Butler lost six of its last nine games overall.
          — Bulldogs won three of their last four home tilts.
          — Butler is shooting 46% inside the arc (#301)

          — Butler lost 85-66 at Villanova December 16.
          — Wildcats won six of last seven series games.
          — Villanova lost three of last four games in Hinkle Fieldhouse.

          Montana State @ Idaho
          Montana State (9-8, 6-5)
          — ranked #225 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #182
          — Experience: #86
          — Continuity: #226
          — Bobcats lost their last five games, giving up 86 ppg.
          — MSU is getting 21.7% of its points on foul line (#36)
          — Montana State is shooting 32.8% on arc (#229)

          Idaho (1-19, 1-16)
          — ranked #354 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #244
          — Experience: #157
          — Continuity: #187
          — Idaho’s win Friday was their first after an 0-19 start.
          — Six of their seven home losses were by 13+ points.
          — Vandals are turning ball over 23.9% of time (#340)

          — Bengals upset Montana State 74-69 here Friday night.
          — Bobcats won five of last six series games.
          — Montana State won 77-67/71-68 in last two visits here.

          Michigan State @ Maryland
          Michigan State (13-9, 7-9)
          — ranked #59 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #147
          — Experience: #196
          — Continuity: #78
          — Spartans won last three games overall, by 7-9-4 points.
          — Michigan State lost four of last five on road (won at Indiana)
          — Spartans force turnovers only 15.5% of time (#330)

          Maryland (14-10, 8-9)
          — ranked #29 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #315
          — Experience: #67
          — Continuity: #56
          — Maryland won last four games, giving up 59.8 ppg.
          — Terrapins are 6-10 vs top 100 teams.
          — Maryland is shooting 53% inside arc (#57).

          — Spartans won seven of last nine series games.
          — Michigan State won last three visits here, by 6-14-12 points.

          Iowa @ Ohio State
          Iowa (17-7, 11-6)
          — ranked #5 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #111
          — Experience: #201
          — Continuity: #48
          — Hawkeyes won four of their last five games.
          — Iowa is shooting 40.1% on the arc (#4)
          — Hawkeyes are 2-6 when they give up 79+ points, 15-1 otherwise.

          Ohio State (18-6, 12-6)
          — ranked #7 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #246
          — Experience: #91
          — Continuity: #174
          — Buckeyes lost last two games, after a 10-1 run.
          — OSU is 3-5 in conference games decided by 7 or less points.
          — Ohio State has #47 eFG%, shooting 36.6% on arc (#56)

          — Ohio State won 89-85 at Iowa February 4.
          — Buckeyes are 5-3 in last eight series games.
          — Hawkeyes lost last three visits here, by 4-18-20 points.

          Charlotte @ Texas-El Paso
          Charlotte (9-12, 5-8)
          — ranked #229 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #355
          — Experience: #140
          — Continuity: #196
          — Charlotte lost last five games, scoring 45-47 points in last two.
          — 49ers lost last four road tilts, last three by 13-19-23 points.
          — Charlotte is turning ball over 21.2% of the time (#281)

          Texas-El Paso (11-10, 7-8)
          — ranked #145 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #214
          — Experience: #136
          — Continuity: #232
          — UTEP won its last three games, giving up 58 ppg.
          — You’re reading ***************.com
          — Miners have #283 eFG%, shooting 46.3% inside arc (#288)
          — UTEP is 4-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200.

          — Charlotte lost 70-47 here yesterday.
          — Miners won five of last eight series games.
          — 49ers lost last three games here, by 7-4-23 points.

          Florida International @ Western Kentucky
          FIU (9-15, 2-13)
          — ranked #289 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #71
          — Experience: #133
          — Continuity: #215
          — FIU lost five in row, 12 of last 13 games.
          — Panthers are shooting 40.5% on the arc (#10)
          — FIU has #309 eFG% defense in country (52.8% inside arc, #275)

          Western Kentucky (15-5, 8-2)
          — ranked #87 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #192
          — Experience: #51
          — Continuity: #90
          — WKU won six of its last seven games.
          — They won their last three home games, by 8-6-23 points.
          — Hilltoppers lost at Houston Thursday, its first game in 12 days.

          — WKU won five of eight series games.
          — Teams split four series games played here.

          Quinnipiac @ Marist
          Quinnipiac (8-9, 6-7)
          — ranked #264 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #41
          — Experience: #316
          — Continuity: #162
          — Quinnipiac won last three games, scoring 82.3 ppg.
          — Bobcats lost three of four true road games (last one was February 8)
          — Quinnipiac has #3 eFG% defense in country.

          Marist (10-8, 8-8)
          — ranked #268 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #297
          — Experience: #280
          — Continuity: #203
          — This is Marist’s first game in eight days.
          — Red Foxes split their last eight games.
          — Marist is turning ball over 22% of time (#312).

          — Quinnipiac won five of last six series games.
          — Bobcats won their last three games in the McCann Center.

          Nevada @ Utah State
          Nevada (14-8, 9-6)
          — ranked #94 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #116
          — Experience: #332
          — Continuity: #303
          — Nevada won four of its last five games.
          — Opponents are shooting 45.7% inside arc (#42).
          — Friday’s loss here was Nevada’s first game in 19 days.

          Utah State (15-7, 12-4)
          — ranked #56 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #117
          — Experience: #257
          — Continuity: #142
          — Aggies are 3-4 in their last seven games, after a 12-3 start.
          — Utah State won six of seven Mountain West home games.
          — Aggies are a top 10 rebounding team in country.

          — Nevada lost 75-72 here Friday night; both teams shot 50%+ on arc.
          — Aggies won three of last four series games.
          — Wolf Pack lost last three games here, by 5-10-3 points.

          North Dakota State @ South Dakota
          North Dakota State (12-11, 10-5)
          — ranked #159 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #339
          — Experience: #263
          — Continuity: #247
          — North Dakota State lost four of its last six games.
          — Bison are best team in country on defensive boards.
          — North Dakota State is in bottom 15 in country at forcing turnovers.

          South Dakota (13-9, 11-3)
          — ranked #171 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #138
          — Experience: #219
          — Continuity: #311
          — Coyotes lost three of last five games, after a 9-0 Summit start.
          — Average total in their last five games: 163.
          — South Dakota is shooting 37.8% on arc (#25).

          — Bison lost 80-71 here yesterday, outscored 25-7 on foul line.
          — Bison beat South Dakota 74-67 on a neutral floor, back in December.
          — North Dakota State is 14-6 in last 20 series games.
          — Teams split last six series games played here.

          Western Illinois @ Oral Roberts
          Western Illinois (7-13, 5-8)
          — ranked #293 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #46
          — Experience: #60
          — Continuity: #343
          — WIU won five of its last six games.
          — Opponents are shooting 39.2% on arc (#339).
          — Leathernecks are shooting 45.3% inside arc (#317)

          Oral Roberts (12-10, 9-5)
          — ranked #182 by KenPom
          — Tempo: #60
          — Experience: #232
          — Continuity: #272
          — Oral Roberts lost four of its last seven games.
          — Golden Eagles have #254 eFG% defense in country.
          — ORU can shoot; 39% on arc (#11), 81.6% on foul line (#2)

          — Leathernecks lost 85-81 here yesterday.
          — Home side won eight of last ten series games.
          — WIU lost last four visits to Tulsa, by 15-9-17-4 points.
          Last edited by StarDust Bum; 02-28-2021, 12:35 PM.

          Comment


          • #6
            791VILLANOVA -792 BUTLER
            BUTLER is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in home games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.

            793MEMPHIS -794 CINCINNATI
            CINCINNATI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

            795MICHIGAN ST -796 MARYLAND
            MICHIGAN ST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots over the last 2 seasons.

            797FLA INTERNATIONAL -798 W KENTUCKY
            FLA INTERNATIONAL is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds in the last 3 seasons.

            799CHARLOTTE -800 UTEP
            UTEP is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) against conference opponents in the last 3 seasons.

            801MONTANA ST -802 IDAHO
            IDAHO is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog in the last 3 seasons.

            803IOWA -804 OHIO ST
            OHIO ST is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 2 seasons.

            803IOWA -804 OHIO ST
            IOWA is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) off a road loss over the last 2 seasons.

            805QUINNIPIAC -806 MARIST
            MARIST is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after playing a game as a road underdog in the current season.

            807PITTSBURGH -808 NC STATE
            NC STATE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games after playing a game as an underdog in the last 3 seasons.
            Last edited by StarDust Bum; 02-28-2021, 12:35 PM.

            Comment


            • #7
              NCAAB
              Dunkel

              Sunday, February 28


              Last edited by StarDust Bum; 02-28-2021, 12:36 PM.

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