Da Bum's COLLEGE BASKETBALL 2020-2021 NEWS/TRENDS/BEST BETS THRU NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP !

[StarDust Bum]

621VILLANOVA -622 BAYLOR
BAYLOR is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

623ORAL ROBERTS -624 ARKANSAS
ARKANSAS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after having won 2 of their last 3 games in the current season.

623ORAL ROBERTS -624 ARKANSAS
ORAL ROBERTS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after scoring 75 points or more 5 straight games in the current season.

623ORAL ROBERTS -624 ARKANSAS
ORAL ROBERTS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots in the current season.

625OREGON ST -626 LOYOLA-IL
OREGON ST is 13-0 ATS (13 Units) after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog in the current season.

627FLORIDA ST -628 MICHIGAN
MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals in the current season.

641CREIGHTON -642 GONZAGA
CREIGHTON is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) vs. teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons.

643OREGON -644 USC
USC is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

643OREGON -644 USC
USC is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

647SYRACUSE -648 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread in the current season.


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Saturday’s games

Villanova (5) vs Baylor (1)
Villanova (18-6)
— ranked #11 by KenPom
— Tempo: #332
— Experience: #146
— Continuity: #7
— Villanova PG Gillespie is out for year; they beat Winthrop/North Texas to get here.
— Villanova is 7-5 in last dozen games, after an 11-1 start.
— Wildcats get 37.3% of their points on arc (#39)
— Wildcats’ bench plays #300 minutes; injuries are costly.
— Since 2005, Villanova is 4-2 in Sweet 16 games.

Baylor (24-2)
— ranked #2 by KenPom
— Tempo: #157
— Experience: #85
— Continuity: #32
— Baylor is 7-2 since its 21-day COVID pause.
— Bears are shooting 41.5% on the arc (#1)
— Baylor forces turnovers 24.7% of time (#3)
— Bears are grabbing 36.7% of their missed shots (#6)
— Under Drew, Baylor is 2-2 in Sweet 16 games.

— Last five tournaments, #1-seeds are 11-3 ATS vs 4/5-seeds in Sweet 16.

Oral Roberts (15) vs Arkansas (3)
Oral Roberts (18-10)
— ranked #128 by KenPom
— Tempo: #46
— Experience: #250
— Continuity: #272
— Oral Roberts won its last seven games, scoring 82.7 ppg.
— ORU lost by 5 at Oklahoma State, 14 at Oklahoma, 11 at Arkansas.
— Oral Roberts is shooting 38.2% on arc (#14), 82.4% on line (#1)
— ORU is 2nd #15-seed to get this far; their bench played total of only 53:00 in their two wins last week, which were both by 3 points.
— This is Oral Roberts’ first NCAA Tournament since 2008.

Arkansas (24-6)
— ranked #15 by KenPom
— Tempo: #17
— Experience: #239
— Continuity: #339
— Arkansas won 11 of its last 12 games.
— Arkansas is 10-0 outside the SEC (non-conf schedule #274)
— Razorbacks gave up 78+ points in all six of their losses.
— Razorbacks were down 14 in first half to Colgate in 1st round, still won by 17.
— Opponents are shooting 45.9% inside arc (#38)
— Musselman is 4-3 in NCAA Tournament games.

— Oral Roberts lost 87-76 at Arkansas December 20; ORU was up 41-31 at the half.
— ORU is 2nd #15-seed to get this far; Florida Gulf Coast (+13) lost 62-50 to Florida in this round, eight years ago.

Oregon State (12) vs Loyola Chi (8)
Oregon State (19-12)
— ranked #49 by KenPom
— Tempo: #303
— Experience: #67
— Continuity: #154
— Oregon State won five in row, eight of its last nine games.
— Oregon State is getting 21.3% of its points on foul line (#44)
— Beavers are shooting 47.0% inside arc (#275)
— OSU won Pac-12 tournament for first time, after they were 5th in regular season.
— Beavers’ wins last week were their first tournament wins since 1982.

Loyola Chi (26-4)
— ranked #9 by KenPom
— Tempo: #342
— Experience: #36
— Continuity: #11
— Loyola won eight in row, 19 of last 20 games.
— Loyola is shooting 57.7% inside arc (#4).
— Ramblers are 6-3 vs top 100 teams.
— Loyola lost by 14 to Wisconsin, by hoop to Richmond, beat Ga Tech/Illinois.
— Ramblers are #2 team in country on defensive boards.
— Loyola made Final Four in 2018, its only NCAA in last 24 years.

— This is only 2nd #8-12 seed game ever in Sweet 16; 12-seed Missouri (+1) beat UCLA in 2002.
— Rhode Island (-8.5) beat 13-seed Valparaiso 74-68 in only 8-13 game, in 1998.

Syracuse (11) vs Houston (2)
Syracuse (18-9)
— ranked #37 by KenPom
— Tempo: #150
— Experience: #234
— Continuity: #67
— Syracuse won eight of their last 11 games.
— Orangemen are 5-7 vs teams in the top 50.
— Syracuse is a bottom 20 team in country on defensive boards.
— Orangemen made 29-58 on arc in their two wins last week.
— Since 2003, Syracuse is 4-4 SU in Sweet 16 games.

Houston (25-3)
— ranked #4 by KenPom
— Tempo: #325
— Experience: #144
— Continuity: #107
— Houston has the best eFG% defense in country.
— Opponents are shooting 29.3% on arc (#12)
— Cougars won their last nine games, six of them by 24+ points.
— Houston finished last game on 13-2 run to nip Rutgers 63-60.
— Since 1997, Sampson is 2-2 in Sweet 16 games.

— Since 2012, #11-seeds are 6-2 ATS in Sweet 16 games.

Sunday’s games

Florida State (4) vs Michigan (1)
Florida State (18-6)
— ranked #13 by KenPom
— Tempo: #89
— Experience: #100
— Continuity: #103
— FSU is 4-3 in its last seven games, after a 14-3 start.
— Seminoles have #21 eFG% defense in country.
— Florida State is shooting 38.2% on the arc (#16)
— Deep team; they’re #25 in bench minutes.
— Florida State is the tallest team in the country.
— Since 1997, Hamilton is 1-3 in Sweet 16 games.

Michigan (22-4)
— ranked #3 by KenPom
— Tempo: #246
— Experience: #58
— Continuity: #146
— Michigan is 4-3 in its last seven games, after an 18-1 start.
— Key player Livers missed last three games (check status)
— Michigan has #6 eFG% defense in country.
— Wolverines are shooting 38.5% on arc (#11)
— Since 1998, Michigan is 1-2 SU in Sweet 16 games.

— Last five tournaments, #1-seeds are 11-3 ATS vs 4/5-seeds in Sweet 16.
— Three years ago, Michigan beat Florida State 58-54 in a regional final.

Creighton (5) @ Gonzaga (1)
Creighton (22-8)
— ranked #20 by KenPom
— Tempo: #143
— Experience: #40
— Continuity: #18
— Creighton won five of its last six games.
— Bluejays are shooting 55.9% inside the arc (#10)
— Creighton has #28 eFG% defense in country.
— Bluejays beat Cal-Santa Barbara/Ohio to get here.
— This is as far as Creighton has ever gotten in this event.

Gonzaga (28-0)
— ranked #1 by KenPom
— Tempo: #4
— Experience: #248
— Continuity: #179
— Gonzaga has one win this season by less than 10 points.
— Gonzaga’s first two tournament wins were by 43-16 points.
— Zags are shooting 63.6% inside arc (#1)
— Gonzaga gets 57.2% of its points on 2-point shots (#30)
— Under Few, Gonzaga is 2-6 in Sweet 16 games, winning in 2015, 2019.

— Last five tournaments, #1-seeds are 11-3 ATS vs 4/5-seeds in Sweet 16.

Oregon (7) vs USC (6)
Oregon (21-6)
— ranked #17 by KenPom
— Tempo: #227
— Experience: #29
— Continuity: #266
— Oregon is 7-1 since their loss at USC February 22.
— Oregon won 12 of their last 14 games.
— Ducks are shooting 38.2% on arc (#15)
— Oregon is 5-2 this season vs top 50 teams.
— Under Altman, Ducks are 2-2 SU in Sweet 16 games.

USC (24-7)
— ranked #6 by KenPom
— Tempo: #236
— Experience: #201
— Continuity: #317
— USC won five of its last six games.
— USC has #7 eFG% defense in country.
— Opponents are shooting 41.4% inside arc (#1)
— Trojans are shooting only 64.3% on foul line (#328)
— USC gave up 56-51 points in its wins last week.
— USC last made the Elite 8 in 2001, when Henry Bibby was coach.

— Since 2002, when conference rivals meet in NCAA Tournament, from the Sweet 16 on, underdog was 7-4 ATS in those games.
— Oregon lost 72-58 at USC February 22; game was 43-22 at the half.
— Since 1987, favorites are 3-3 ATS when #6-7 seeds meet in this round.

UCLA (11) vs Alabama (2)
UCLA (20-9)
— ranked #22 by KenPom
— Tempo: #337
— Experience: #279
— Continuity: #29
— UCLA has lost four in row before winning three games last week.
— UCLA is shooting 37.4% on the arc (#28)
— Bruins are 7-7 vs teams ranked in top 50.
— Since 2009, UCLA is 11-7 in NCAAs.
— Cronin is 9-11 in NCAAs, 3-5 after the first round.

Alabama (26-6)
— ranked #8 by KenPom
— Tempo: #12
— Experience: #136
— Continuity: #152
— Alabama won eight in row, 11 of last 12 games.
— Crimson Tide has #17 eFG% defense in country.
— Alabama gets 40.1% of its points on 3-pointers (#15)
— Alabama is grabbing 32.1% of its missed shots (#53)
— Crimson Tide hasn’t been this far in the last 24 years.

— Since 2012, #11-seeds are 6-2 ATS in Sweet 16 games.


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Oral Roberts @ Arkansas
Oral Roberts
No trends to report
Arkansas
Arkansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oral Roberts

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday’s 6-pack
Active leaders in career home runs:
662— Albert Pujols
487— Miguel Cabrera
424— Edwin Encarnación
417— Nelson Cruz
352— Ryan Braun
334— Robinson Cano

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 545,357
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“You never get over it, but you get to where it doesn’t bother you so much.”
Jeffrey Eugenides

Saturday’s quiz
Where did James Harden play his college basketball?

Friday’s quiz
Oakland manager Bob Melvin has been in his current job the longest; this is his 11th season with the A’s.

Thursday’s quiz
Jimmy Chitwood was the big star for Hickory High in Hoosiers; he wore number 15.

**************************

Saturday’s Den: Clearing out a cluttered mind……..

13) You know your life is good when someone offers you $120 million for six years, and you turn them down. Thats what Astros’ SS Carlos Correa did this week. No thanks to $120M.

Correa is represented by the William Morris Agency; they must be pretty sure Correa will get more than $20M a year down the road, or maybe they wanted opt-outs in the middle, or who knows? Correa will make $11,700,000 this year, is a free agent next winter.

12) As recently as 2010, starting pitchers in the major leagues threw 100+ pitches in 50% of their games, so half the time the starter threw 100+ pitches.

Last year? Starters threw 100+ pitches 10% of the time, as analytics people hammer home the idea that facing hitters a third time in a game is a bad thing.

11) An “immaculate inning” is when a pitcher strikes out the side on nine pitches; doesn’t happen much. 94 major league pitchers have done it.

Nolan Ryan is the only pitcher ever to throw an immaculate inning in both leagues.

10) Pitchers Max Fried (Braves), Jack Flaherty (Cardinals) and Lucas Giolito (White Sox) all went to the same high school, Harvard-Westlake in Los Angeles. They were all on the baseball team at the same time; they all have the same agent and they’ll all start on Opening Day this season.

Apparently it cost $42,000 a year to go Harvard-Westlake; 42 grand a year for freakin’ high school. Yikes.

9) Heard this stat again on TV the other night, it is staggering; Minnesota Twins have lost their last 18 playoff games. They’ve had good teams; losing 18 playoff games in a row is staggering.

8) NBA is going to have a play-in tournament in mid-May, just before their playoffs start:
— #7 and #8-seeds will play one game, winner gets #7-seed in playoffs.
— #9 and #10-seeds will play one game, loser gets eliminated.
— Winner of the second game plays the loser of the first game, winner gets the #8-seed.

7) There were 40 players traded at the NBA trading deadline Wednesday, the most of any deadline in the last 30 years.

6) Saw this note several times Wednesday and thought it was a joke; about the 4th time I saw it posted, I realized it was true- over the next seven NBA drafts, Oklahoma City Thunder has 34 draft choices, 17 in the first round, 17 in the second.

NBA rosters are only 15 players; what are they going to do with all that draft capital? They could field two teams. Will be interesting to see what they do from here on in.

5) Seattle Seahawks have only 3 picks in this year’s draft; Philadelphia has 11.

4) Miami Dolphins were busy Friday, they traded the #3 pick in this draft to the 49ers for the #12 pick and other stuff, then traded the #12 pick and other stuff to the Eagles for the #6 pick.

Miami has five picks in the first three rounds of next month’s draft; the main question though, isn’t draft picks, it is whether Tua Tagovailoa is good enough to be their franchise quarterback.

3) AL East rivals New York-Boston will play six series this season, five of them weekend series. Of the five Sunday games, four of them are on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.

Not much original thinking there. How about promoting some other teams, or showing more west coast teams. Show the Angels/Padres more, or Houston- they have good players. People would like to see Trout, Tatis or Altuve more.

2) College basketball stuff:
Shaka Smart bolts Texas for Marquette. Smart was 109-86 at Texas, 51-56 in regular season conference games, 0-3 in NCAA Tournament games.

His Longhorns won the Big X tournament this year, but the first round loss to Abilene Christian ended the season on a dark note. Since making the Final Four at VCU in 2014, Smart is 2-7 in NCAA Tournament games. Right or wrong, that is what people remember.

Is Marquette a better job than Texas? Texas hasn’t made the Sweet 16 since 2008, Marquette made it in three of last four years under Buzz Williams (2011-13) but that was a while ago. Hiring Steve Wojciechowski was a blunder; Smart is an upgrade over him.

Big X is a tough league; been ranked 1st or 2nd the last eight seasons. Big East has usually been 3rd during that time. We’ll see how things turn out, but Smart’s seat was getting hot in Austin, and now he gets a fresh start at Marquette.

1) Random movie/TV trivia: Actress Mariska Hargitay, the star of Law and Order SVU, is the daughter of the famous actress Jayne Mansfield. Didn’t know that.

[StarDust Bum]

621VILLANOVA -622 BAYLOR
BAYLOR is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

623ORAL ROBERTS -624 ARKANSAS
ORAL ROBERTS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots in the current season.

623ORAL ROBERTS -624 ARKANSAS
ARKANSAS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after having won 2 of their last 3 games in the current season.

623ORAL ROBERTS -624 ARKANSAS
ORAL ROBERTS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after scoring 75 points or more 5 straight games in the current season.

625OREGON ST -626 LOYOLA-IL
OREGON ST is 13-0 ATS (13 Units) after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog in the current season.

627FLORIDA ST -628 MICHIGAN
MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals in the current season.

629MEMPHIS -630 COLORADO ST
MEMPHIS are 8-0 ATS (8 Units) after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread in the current season.

631MISSISSIPPI ST -632 LOUISIANA TECH
LOUISIANA TECH is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games in the current season.

647SYRACUSE -648 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread in the current season.


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NCAAB
Dunkel

Saturday, March 27




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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 27

NCAA Tournament

Saturday’s games

Villanova (5) vs Baylor (1)
Villanova (18-6)
— ranked #11 by KenPom
— Tempo: #332
— Experience: #146
— Continuity: #7
— Villanova PG Gillespie is out for year; they beat Winthrop/North Texas to get here.
— Villanova is 7-5 in last dozen games, after an 11-1 start.
— Wildcats get 37.3% of their points on arc (#39)
— Wildcats’ bench plays #300 minutes; injuries are costly.
— Since 2005, Villanova is 4-2 in Sweet 16 games.

Baylor (24-2)
— ranked #2 by KenPom
— Tempo: #157
— Experience: #85
— Continuity: #32
— Baylor is 7-2 since its 21-day COVID pause.
— Bears are shooting 41.5% on the arc (#1)
— Baylor forces turnovers 24.7% of time (#3)
— Bears are grabbing 36.7% of their missed shots (#6)
— Under Drew, Baylor is 2-2 in Sweet 16 games.

— Last five tournaments, #1-seeds are 11-3 ATS vs 4/5-seeds in Sweet 16.

Oral Roberts (15) vs Arkansas (3)
Oral Roberts (18-10)
— ranked #128 by KenPom
— Tempo: #46
— Experience: #250
— Continuity: #272
— Oral Roberts won its last seven games, scoring 82.7 ppg.
— ORU lost by 5 at Oklahoma State, 14 at Oklahoma, 11 at Arkansas.
— Oral Roberts is shooting 38.2% on arc (#14), 82.4% on line (#1)
— ORU is 2nd #15-seed to get this far; their bench played total of only 53:00 in their two wins last week, which were both by 3 points.
— This is Oral Roberts’ first NCAA Tournament since 2008.

Arkansas (24-6)
— ranked #15 by KenPom
— Tempo: #17
— Experience: #239
— Continuity: #339
— Arkansas won 11 of its last 12 games.
— Arkansas is 10-0 outside the SEC (non-conf schedule #274)
— Razorbacks gave up 78+ points in all six of their losses.
— Razorbacks were down 14 in first half to Colgate in 1st round, still won by 17.
— Opponents are shooting 45.9% inside arc (#38)
— Musselman is 4-3 in NCAA Tournament games.

— Oral Roberts lost 87-76 at Arkansas December 20; ORU was up 41-31 at the half.
— ORU is 2nd #15-seed to get this far; Florida Gulf Coast (+13) lost 62-50 to Florida in this round, eight years ago.

Oregon State (12) vs Loyola Chi (8)
Oregon State (19-12)
— ranked #49 by KenPom
— Tempo: #303
— Experience: #67
— Continuity: #154
— Oregon State won five in row, eight of its last nine games.
— Oregon State is getting 21.3% of its points on foul line (#44)
— Beavers are shooting 47.0% inside arc (#275)
— OSU won Pac-12 tournament for first time, after they were 5th in regular season.
— Beavers’ wins last week were their first tournament wins since 1982.

Loyola Chi (26-4)
— ranked #9 by KenPom
— Tempo: #342
— Experience: #36
— Continuity: #11
— Loyola won eight in row, 19 of last 20 games.
— Loyola is shooting 57.7% inside arc (#4).
— Ramblers are 6-3 vs top 100 teams.
— Loyola lost by 14 to Wisconsin, by hoop to Richmond, beat Ga Tech/Illinois.
— Ramblers are #2 team in country on defensive boards.
— Loyola made Final Four in 2018, its only NCAA in last 24 years.

— This is only 2nd #8-12 seed game ever in Sweet 16; 12-seed Missouri (+1) beat UCLA in 2002.
— Rhode Island (-8.5) beat 13-seed Valparaiso 74-68 in only 8-13 game, in 1998.

Syracuse (11) vs Houston (2)
Syracuse (18-9)
— ranked #37 by KenPom
— Tempo: #150
— Experience: #234
— Continuity: #67
— Syracuse won eight of their last 11 games.
— Orangemen are 5-7 vs teams in the top 50.
— Syracuse is a bottom 20 team in country on defensive boards.
— Orangemen made 29-58 on arc in their two wins last week.
— Since 2003, Syracuse is 4-4 SU in Sweet 16 games.

Houston (25-3)
— ranked #4 by KenPom
— Tempo: #325
— Experience: #144
— Continuity: #107
— Houston has the best eFG% defense in country.
— Opponents are shooting 29.3% on arc (#12)
— Cougars won their last nine games, six of them by 24+ points.
— Houston finished last game on 13-2 run to nip Rutgers 63-60.
— Since 1997, Sampson is 2-2 in Sweet 16 games.

— Since 2012, #11-seeds are 6-2 ATS in Sweet 16 games.

NIT tournament

Memphis vs Colorado State
Memphis (18-8)
— ranked #39 by KenPom
— Tempo: #48
— Experience: #323
— Continuity: #78
— Memphis won 12 of its last 15 games.
— Tigers have #5 eFG% defense in country.
— Memphis is turning ball over 22.0% of time (#316)
— Tigers are shooting only 60.9% on foul line (#341)
— Memphis is 8-3 outside the AAC (non-conf schedule #197)

Colorado State (20-6)
— ranked #60 by KenPom
— Tempo: #133
— Experience: #308
— Continuity: #36
— Rams won eight of their last ten games.
— Colorado State is shooting 55.6% inside arc (#12).
— Colorado State is shooting 79.5% on foul line (#7)
— 43.3% of shots they take are 3’s (#43)
— Rams are 5-1 outside Mountain West, losing at Saint Mary’s.

Louisiana Tech vs Mississippi State
Louisiana Tech (23-7)
— ranked #76 by KenPom
— Tempo: #119
— Experience: #61
— Continuity: #116
— Bulldogs won seven of their last eight D-I games.
— Louisiana Tech has three senior starters.
— Bulldogs have the #11 eFG% defense- they’re #34 on defensive boards.
— Tech lost at LSU, beat Ole Miss, their two SEC games this year.
— Tech was held to 55-48 points in last two losses.

Mississippi State (17-14)
— ranked #77 by KenPom
— Tempo: #301
— Experience: #313
— Continuity: #253
— Bulldogs are 6-4 in their last ten games.
— Miss State is grabbing 36.2% of their missed shots (#8)
— Bulldogs have #43 eFG% defense in country.

— Tech made 10-16 on arc, won 74-67 at Miss State last season.
— Miss State beat North Texas by 6, in their one C-USA game.
— Miss State starts three sophs and a freshman; they’re using these games to help build for next season.


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NCAAB

Saturday, March 27

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Trend Report
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Oral Roberts @ Arkansas
Oral Roberts
No trends to report
Arkansas
Arkansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oral Roberts


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[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, MARCH 27
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MEM at CSU 12:00 PM
CSU +4.5
U 137.5

ORST at L-IL 02:40 PM
ORST +7.0
O 125.0

MSST at LT 03:00 PM
LT -1.0
U 135.0

VILL at BAY 05:15 PM
VILL +7.5
U 142.0

ORU at ARK 07:25 PM
ORU +11.5
O 157.0

SYR at HOU 09:55 PM
SYR +6.5
U 141.0

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, MARCH 27
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MEM at CSU 12:00 PM
CSU +4.5...........90 - 67...........LOSER
U 137.5

ORST at L-IL 02:40 PM
ORST +7.0................65 - 58....WINNER
O 125.0......................LOSER

MSST at LT 03:00 PM
LT -1.0..............84 - 62....LOSER
U 135.0

VILL at BAY 05:15 PM
VILL +7.5..........51 - 62
U 142.0.................WINNER

ORU at ARK 07:25 PM
ORU +11.5...........70 - 72....WINNER
O 157.0...............LOSER

SYR at HOU 09:55 PM
SYR +6.5...........46 - 52.......LOSER
U 141.0..................WINNER



2021 NCAA AND NIT TOURNAMENT BEST BETS

DATE...............W-L-T...................%.................UNITS

03/27/2021...........4-5-0.................44.44%..........-7.50
03/25/2021...........3-3-0.................50.00%..........-1.50
03/24/2021...........0-2-0.................00.00%..........-11.00
03/23/2021...........1-3.0.................25.00%..........-11.50
03/22/2021...........9-10-0...............47.36%..........-10.00
03/21/2021...........4-9-0.................30.76.............- 29.50
03/20/2021..........13-11-0...............53.16.............+ 4.50
03/19/2021..........12-13-0...............48.00%..........-11.50
03/18/2021............3-4-1................ 42.85%...........- 7.00
03/17/2021............4-0-0...............100.00%..........+20.00

Totals...................53 - 60...............46.90..............- 65.00

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s 6-pack
Active leaders in career strikeouts:
3,013— Justin Verlander
2,784— Max Scherzer
2,689— Zack Greinke
2,526— Clayton Kershaw
2,524— Felix Hernandez
2,397— Jon Lester

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 548,130
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“We really haven’t made a big deal about the 12th seed in the tournament. We were thrilled to be here. But we had a mission. I don’t want to throw too much at them. They’ll see it. And it’s cool. But we just gotta really keep our feet on the ground, stay humble and stay hungry, keep grinding away.”
Oregon State coach Wayne Tinkle

Sunday’s quiz
Which major league team has gone the longest since last time they made the playoffs?

Saturday’s quiz
James Harden played his college basketball at Arizona State.

Friday’s quiz
Oakland manager Bob Melvin has been in his current job the longest; this is his 11th season with the A’s.

***********************

Sunday’s Den: Trends for National League teams

Arizona
— Last made playoffs in 2017.
— Finished over .500 three of last four years.
— 5-11 vs lefty starting pitchers LY.
— 9-21 on the road LY.

Atlanta
— Made playoffs the last three years.
— 19-11 at home LY.
— 8-4 vs lefty starting pitchers LY.
— 11-9 vs AL teams, 24-16 vs NL teams.

Chicago
— Made playoffs four of last five years.
— 19-14 at home, 15-12 on road LY
— 7-4 vs lefty starters, 12-8 vs AL Central teams.
— Joe Maddon made playoffs four of five years with the Cubs; why did they dump him?

Cincinnati
— Braves shut them out 1-0/5-0 in two playoff games LY.
— Reds’ previous playoff appearance was in 2013.
— Reds are moving Eugenio Suarez to SS this year.
— Losing P’s Bauer, Iglesias will be hard to overcome.

Colorado
— Went combined 97-125 the last two years.
— Finished over .500 twice in last ten years.
— Were only 12-18 at Coors Field last year.
— 16-24 vs right-handed starting pitchers.

Los Angeles
— won World Series LY for first time since 1988.
— Last losing season? They were 80-82 in 2010.
— Made playoffs the last eight years.
— were 7-5 in one-run games, 36-12 in the others.

Miami
— made playoffs LY for first time since 2003.
— went 31-29, despite giving up 41 more runs than they scored.
— 24-17 vs righty starters, 7-12 vs southpaws.
— Before LY, their last winning season was in 2009.

Milwaukee
— made playoffs the last three years.
— went 29-31, despite going 11-5 in one-run games.
— 11-7 vs lefty starters, 18-24 vs righties.
— 10-10 vs AL Central, 19-21 vs NL Central rivals.

NY Mets
— Finished over .500 in 3 of last 12 seasons.
— Last made playoffs in 2016.
— Were 6-11 in one-run games LY.
— Have new owner with lot of $$$; will they re-sign Lindor?

Philadelphia
— Had great run from 2007-11, making playoffs every year.
— Haven’t made playoffs since 2011.
— 21-19 vs NL East, 7-13 vs AL East LY.
— 13-9 vs lefty starters, 15-23 vs right starters.

Pittsburgh
— Last made playoffs in 2015.
— 6-22 on road, 2-10 vs lefty starters LY.
— 16-24 vs NL Central, only 3-17 vs AL Central LY.
— were over .500 four times in 9 years under Clint Hurdle.

St Louis
— made playoffs 11 of last 17 years.
— 22-18 vs NL Central, 8-10 vs AL Central.
— 26-21 vs righty starters, 4-7 vs southpaws.
— Acquiring 3B Arenado is big upgrade to defense.

San Diego
— made playoffs LY for first time since 2006.
— 27-13 vs righty starters, 10-10 vs lefties LY.
— won all four of their extra inning games.
— 24-16 vs NL West, 13-7 vs AL West.

San Francisco
— finished under .500 the last four years.
— 19-14 at home, 10-17 on road LY.
— won three World Series from 2010-14.
— 18-22 vs NL West, 11-9 vs AL West LY.

Washington
— made playoffs 5 of last 9 years
— despite that, have had 7 managers the last 16 years
— were over .500 eight of last nine years, won 2019 WS.
— 11-7 vs lefty starters, 15-27 vs lefty starters.

[StarDust Bum]

2020-21 college basketbal

Sunday’s NCAA games

Florida State (4) vs Michigan (1)
Florida State (18-6)
— ranked #13 by KenPom
— Tempo: #89
— Experience: #100
— Continuity: #103
— FSU is 4-3 in its last seven games, after a 14-3 start.
— Seminoles have #21 eFG% defense in country.
— Florida State is shooting 38.2% on the arc (#16)
— Deep team; they’re #25 in bench minutes.
— Florida State is the tallest team in the country.
— Since 1997, Hamilton is 1-3 in Sweet 16 games.

Michigan (22-4)
— ranked #3 by KenPom
— Tempo: #246
— Experience: #58
— Continuity: #146
— Michigan is 4-3 in its last seven games, after an 18-1 start.
— Key player Livers missed last three games (check status)
— Michigan has #6 eFG% defense in country.
— Wolverines are shooting 38.5% on arc (#11)
— Since 1998, Michigan is 1-2 SU in Sweet 16 games.

— Last five tournaments, #1-seeds are 11-3 ATS vs 4/5-seeds in Sweet 16.
— Three years ago, Michigan beat Florida State 58-54 in a regional final.

Creighton (5) @ Gonzaga (1)
Creighton (22-8)
— ranked #20 by KenPom
— Tempo: #143
— Experience: #40
— Continuity: #18
— Creighton won five of its last six games.
— Bluejays are shooting 55.9% inside the arc (#10)
— Creighton has #28 eFG% defense in country.
— Bluejays beat Cal-Santa Barbara/Ohio to get here.
— This is as far as Creighton has ever gotten in this event.

Gonzaga (28-0)
— ranked #1 by KenPom
— Tempo: #4
— Experience: #248
— Continuity: #179
— Gonzaga has one win this season by less than 10 points.
— Gonzaga’s first two tournament wins were by 43-16 points.
— Zags are shooting 63.6% inside arc (#1)
— Gonzaga gets 57.2% of its points on 2-point shots (#30)
— Under Few, Gonzaga is 2-6 in Sweet 16 games, winning in 2015, 2019.

— Last five tournaments, #1-seeds are 11-3 ATS vs 4/5-seeds in Sweet 16.

Oregon (7) vs USC (6)
Oregon (21-6)
— ranked #17 by KenPom
— Tempo: #227
— Experience: #29
— Continuity: #266
— Oregon is 7-1 since their loss at USC February 22.
— Oregon won 12 of their last 14 games.
— Ducks are shooting 38.2% on arc (#15)
— Oregon is 5-2 this season vs top 50 teams.
— Under Altman, Ducks are 2-2 SU in Sweet 16 games.

USC (24-7)
— ranked #6 by KenPom
— Tempo: #236
— Experience: #201
— Continuity: #317
— USC won five of its last six games.
— USC has #7 eFG% defense in country.
— Opponents are shooting 41.4% inside arc (#1)
— Trojans are shooting only 64.3% on foul line (#328)
— USC gave up 56-51 points in its wins last week.
— USC last made the Elite 8 in 2001, when Henry Bibby was coach.

— Since 2002, when conference rivals meet in NCAA Tournament, from the Sweet 16 on, underdog was 7-4 ATS in those games.
— Oregon lost 72-58 at USC February 22; game was 43-22 at the half.
— Since 1987, favorites are 3-3 ATS when #6-7 seeds meet in this round.

UCLA (11) vs Alabama (2)
UCLA (20-9)
— ranked #22 by KenPom
— Tempo: #337
— Experience: #279
— Continuity: #29
— UCLA has lost four in row before winning three games last week.
— UCLA is shooting 37.4% on the arc (#28)
— Bruins are 7-7 vs teams ranked in top 50.
— Since 2009, UCLA is 11-7 in NCAAs.
— Cronin is 9-11 in NCAAs, 3-5 after the first round.

Alabama (26-6)
— ranked #8 by KenPom
— Tempo: #12
— Experience: #136
— Continuity: #152
— Alabama won eight in row, 11 of last 12 games.
— Crimson Tide has #17 eFG% defense in country.
— Alabama gets 40.1% of its points on 3-pointers (#15)
— Alabama is grabbing 32.1% of its missed shots (#53)
— Crimson Tide hasn’t been this far in the last 24 years.

— Since 2012, #11-seeds are 6-2 ATS in Sweet 16 games.

NIT Final
Memphis vs Mississippi State
Memphis (19-8)
— ranked #33 by KenPom
— Tempo: #49
— Experience: #323
— Continuity: #78
— Memphis won 13 of its last 16 games.
— Tigers have #5 eFG% defense in country.
— Memphis is turning ball over 21.8% of time (#313)
— Tigers are shooting only 61.4% on foul line (#341)
— Memphis is 9-3 outside the AAC (non-conf schedule #198)
— Tigers made 14-27 on arc yesterday, scored 1.32 ppp.

Mississippi State (18-14)
— ranked #63 by KenPom
— Tempo: #301
— Experience: #315
— Continuity: #253
— Bulldogs are 7-4 in their last 11 games.
— Miss State is grabbing 36.3% of their missed shots (#8)
— Bulldogs have #39 eFG% defense in country.
— Miss State is turning ball over 22.2% of time (#318)
— Bulldogs are shooting 65.9% on foul line (#311)
— Miss State allowed 65.7 ppg in its three NIT wins.
— Bulldogs made 10-20 on arc, never trailed in yesterday’s win.

[StarDust Bum]

more later

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Sunday, March 28

[StarDust Bum]

627FLORIDA ST -628 MICHIGAN
MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals in the current season.

641CREIGHTON -642 GONZAGA
CREIGHTON is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) vs. teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons.

643OREGON -644 USC
USC is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

643OREGON -644 USC
USC is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.



----------------------------------



NCAAB

Sunday, March 28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oregon @ USC
Oregon
Oregon is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games when playing USC
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oregon's last 7 games when playing USC
USC
USC is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oregon
USC is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oregon

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, MARCH 28
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MSST at MEM 12:00 PM
MSST +4.0
O 135.5

CREI at GONZ 02:10 PM
GONZ -13.5
U 158.5

LT at CSU 03:00 PM
CSU -1.0
U 140.5

FSU at MICH 05:00 PM
FSU +2.0
U 143.0

UCLA at ALA 07:15 PM
UCLA +6.5
O 145.0

ORE at USC 09:45 PM
ORE +2.0
O 138.0

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, MARCH 28
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MSST at MEM 12:00 PM
MSST +4.0..........64 - 77......LOSER
O 135.5........................WINNER

CREI at GONZ 02:10 PM
GONZ -13.5...............65 - 83.........WINNER
U 158.5.

LT at CSU 03:00 PM
CSU -1.0.............................76 - 74.....LOSER
U 140.5...................LOSER

FSU at MICH 05:00 PM
FSU +2.0..........58 - 76...........LOSER
U 143.0............................WINNER

UCLA at ALA 07:15 PM
UCLA +6.5................88 - 78....WINNER
O 145.0.........................WINNER

ORE at USC 09:45 PM
ORE +2.0............68 - 82.....WINNER
O 138.0.......................WINNER



2021 NCAA AND NIT TOURNAMENT BEST BETS

DATE...............W-L-T...................%.................UNITS

03/28/2021...........7-4-0.................63.63%.........+ 13.00
03/27/2021...........4-5-0.................44.44%..........-7.50
03/25/2021...........3-3-0.................50.00%..........-1.50
03/24/2021...........0-2-0.................00.00%..........-11.00
03/23/2021...........1-3.0.................25.00%..........-11.50
03/22/2021...........9-10-0...............47.36%..........-10.00
03/21/2021...........4-9-0.................30.76.............- 29.50
03/20/2021..........13-11-0...............53.16.............+ 4.50
03/19/2021..........12-13-0...............48.00%..........-11.50
03/18/2021............3-4-1................ 42.85%...........- 7.00
03/17/2021............4-0-0...............100.00%..........+20.00

Totals...................60 - 64...............48.38%.............- 52.00

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Active career leaders in OPS:
.9996— Mike Trout
.937— Joey Votto
.931— Miguel Cabrera
.924— Albert Pujols
.914— Paul Goldschmidt
.905— Giancarlo Stanton

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 548,130
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.


**********

Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up a sports weekend…….

13) This is the state of college basketball these days:

In February, North Carolina needed couple of games to update their resume; they added mid-week non-conference home games with Northeastern, Marquette, Won one, lost one. Didn’t seem like a big deal at the time.

When Carolina beat Northeastern 82-62 February 17, Huskies’ sophomore PG Tyson Walker scored 27 points, and showed up on the radar of the big $$$ schools who like to poach players from low and mid-major schools. Happens all the time now.

Makes college basketball a lot more like baseball, but I’m an Oakland A’s fan, and it drives me batty when players bolt for greener pa$ture$. Loyalty is in scarce supply these days.

Walker averaged 18.8 ppg and 4.8 assists/game as a sophomore at Northeastern, was named the CAA’s Defensive Player of the Year; he committed to Michigan State this weekend.

Not sure what Northeastern is going to do for a point guard next year, none of the national media seemed too interested in that.

12) UCLA 88, Alabama 78 OT:
— Crimson Tide went 11-25 on foul line, in an overtime loss.
— UCLA scored 23 points in the 5:00 overtime.
— This is Mick Cronin’s 12th NCAA tourney, his first regional final.

11) Baylor 62, Villanova 51:
— Villanova led 30-23 at halftime.
— Baylor was +10 in turnover margin (16-6)
— Teams combined to make 6-36 on the arc.

10) Arkansas 72, Oral Roberts 70:
— ORU led 46-34 with 15:24 left in the game.
— Eric Musselman is 5-3 in NCAA tourney games; his team trailed by 10+ points in all five of the wins.
— Oral Roberts were almost first-ever #15-seed to make a regional final.

9) Gonzaga 83, Creighton 65:
— Gonzaga is 29-0, has one win by fewer than 10 points.
— Zags took 33 shots inside arc, made 25 of them (75.8%)
— Gonzaga had 23 assists on 32 made field goals.

8) Oregon State 65, Loyola Chi 58:
— Beavers are 2nd-ever #12-seed (Missouri ’02) to make a regional final.
— OSU held Ramblers to 33.3% from the floor.
— On February 20, Oregon State was 11-11; they’ve gone 9-1 since then.

7) Michigan 76, Florida State 58:
— Surprisingly easy win for the Wolverines.
— FSU shot only 40%, looked lost on offense.
— Michigan scored 81.3 ppg in first three tourney wins.

6) USC 82, Oregon 68:
— Trojans made 10-17 shots on arc, scored 1.22 ppp.
— In two games vs Oregon this year, Trojans led by 19-21 at the half.
— Pac-12 is 12-2 in NCAA Tournament, including this game.

5) Houston 62, Syracuse 46:
— Cougars won their last ten games.
— Syracuse shot 28% from floor, 5-23 on arc.
— Average total in the four Saturday games: 126.5.

4) Memphis 77, Mississippi State 64:
— Tigers win the NIT; in their last two games, they made 24-49 3-pointers.
— This game was 33-33 at halftime.
— Memphis didn’t play any seniors; they should be good next year.

3) If Houston beats Oregon State tonight, they’ll have made the Final Four by winning four games in their region, against the #15-10-11-12 seeds. That doesn’t happen often.

2) Indiana Hoosiers hired alum Mike Woodson as their basketball coach; Woodson coached the Atlanta Hawks for six years, the Knicks for three more; he scored 14 ppg in his 11-year NBA career. His last head coaching gig was 2014; he’s been an assistant coach since.

Utah poached coach Craig Smith from in-state rival Utah State to be its next head man. Few days ago, Smith told his Utah State players not to have any concerns about him leaving- he was staying right where he was, sure as sure could be.

Money does strange things to people.

1) I like the idea they enacted this year; the 2nd weekend of the tournament being Saturday-Tuesday instead of Thursday-Sunday. Not sure what next year’s schedule will be like, maybe no one does; when you change the schedule once every 35 years, people get used to the way it was.

[StarDust Bum]

653ARKANSAS -654 BAYLOR
BAYLOR is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

655OREGON ST -656 HOUSTON
OREGON ST is 14-0 ATS (14 Units) after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog in the current season.




NCAAB
Dunkel

Monday, March 29






NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, March 29

Arkansas (3) vs Baylor (1)
Arkansas (25-6)
— ranked #18 by KenPom
— Tempo: #17
— Experience: #239
— Continuity: #339
— Arkansas won 12 of its last 13 games.
— Arkansas is 11-0 outside the SEC (non-conf schedule #273)
— Razorbacks gave up 78+ points in all six of their losses.
— Razorbacks won last two games by a hoop each.
— Opponents are shooting 46.3% inside arc (#47)
— Musselman is 5-3 in NCAA Tournament games; his team trailed by 10+ points in all five of the wins.

Baylor (25-2)
— ranked #2 by KenPom
— Tempo: #179
— Experience: #85
— Continuity: #32
— Baylor is 8-2 since its 21-day COVID pause.
— Bears are shooting 40.8% on the arc (#2)
— Baylor forces turnovers 24.8% of time (#3)
— Baylor gave up 56.3 ppg in its first three tourney wins.
— Bears are grabbing 36.8% of their missed shots (#6)
— Under Drew, Baylor lost Elite 8 games in 2010, 2012.

— Since 2007, in regional finals between #1-#3 seeds: favorites are 8-4 ATS.

Oregon State (12) vs Houston (2)
Oregon State (20-12)
— ranked #43 by KenPom
— Tempo: #305
— Experience: #65
— Continuity: #154
— Oregon State won six in row, nine of its last ten games.
— Oregon State is getting 21.5% of its points on foul line (#40)
— Beavers are shooting 46.8% inside arc (#278)
— OSU won Pac-12 tournament for first time, after they were 5th in regular season.
— Beavers’ wins last week were their first tournament wins since 1982
— OSU gave up 61.3 ppg in its first three NCAA games.

Houston (27-3)
— ranked #3 by KenPom
— Tempo: #326
— Experience: #142
— Continuity: #107
— Houston has the best eFG% defense in country.
— Opponents are shooting 29.0% on arc (#8)
— Cougars won their last ten games, six of them by 24+ points.
— So far in this tournament, Houston has played seeds #15-10-11.
— Cougars allowed 54 ppg in first three NCAA games.
— Sampson made 2002 Final Four with Oklahoma, then lost in the Elite 8 the next year.

— Oregon State is 2nd #12-seed ever to play in regional final; Missouri (+6.5) lost 81-75 to Oklahoma in 2002.
— Since 2004, #2-seeds are 3-8 ATS as a favorite in regional finals.

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, MARCH 29
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ORST at HOU 07:15 PM
ORST +8.0
U 130.0

ARK at BAY 09:57 PM
ARK +7.0
U 149.5



2021 NCAA AND NIT TOURNAMENT BEST BETS

DATE...............W-L-T...................%.................UNITS

03/28/2021...........6-5-0.................54.54%%......+2.50
03/27/2021...........4-5-0.................44.44%..........-7.50
03/25/2021...........3-3-0.................50.00%..........-1.50
03/24/2021...........0-2-0.................00.00%..........-11.00
03/23/2021...........1-3.0.................25.00%..........-11.50
03/22/2021...........9-10-0...............47.36%..........-10.00
03/21/2021...........4-9-0.................30.76.............- 29.50
03/20/2021..........13-11-0...............53.16.............+ 4.50
03/19/2021..........12-13-0...............48.00%..........-11.50
03/18/2021............3-4-1................ 42.85%...........- 7.00
03/17/2021............4-0-0...............100.00%..........+20.00

Totals...................59 - 65...............47.58%.............- 62.50

REVISED TOTALS AS I HAD OREGON AS A WINNER......