Announcement

**Udog** · 02-24-2021, 07:50 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Odds to win the college basketball title:
3-1— Gonzaga, Baylor
7-1— Michigan
11-1— Villanova
14-1— Houston, Ohio State, Texas
16-1— Florida State
18-1— Illinois, Iowa

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 501,724
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's Den: Mid-week musings…….

13) A gambler bet $67,000 Tuesday night at @pointsbetusa that 17-0 Baylor would beat 2-16 Iowa State SU, but Baylor was down 32-15 early, was still down a point with 4:54 left to play- they wound up winning 77-72.

The gambler risked $67,000, made himself a stresssful $2,914. Very stressful.

12) Baylor 77, Iowa State 72— That was the Bears’ first game in three weeks; they just need to get games under their belt, to get ready for the tournament. Can a team get in midseason form in three weeks? We’re about to find out.

11) March’s college basketball schedule is going to be scrambled this year, but at least they’re going to play tournaments, unlike last year. Some of the conference tournaments start next week; I’ll be posting information on all that I can. Hopefully next season will be more normal.

10) NBA trends on back/backs:
— Road teams who played at home night before: Favorites 4-3 ATS, underdogs 6-10-1
— Teams on road for 2nd consecutive night: F 13-8 ATS, U 19-13-1
— Teams at home for 2nd consecutive night: F 12-9-1, U 14-14
— Home teams who played on road night before: F 2-9, U 10-6
— Home teams 38-38-1………favorites 31-29-1, underdogs 49-43-2

9) I’d be fascinated to know what NBA coaches who also coached in college think about the two sports: Billy Donovan, Brad Stevens, Quin Snyder. Even Lon Kruger, who coached the Hawks for a few years but who coaches Oklahoma now.

Recruiting and the transfer epidemic has to make college coaching less appealing; the money is better in the NBA, but lot of coaches like to teach— lot more of that in college.

Would be a fascinating HBO special this summer. Or NBA TV.

8) Lefty pitcher Scott Kazmir signed a minor league deal with the Giants; he has a career record of 108-96, but hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2016. Giants will be his 7th big league team.

7) NBA teams who play the fastest tempo, which could be helpful in betting totals:
1) Golden State
2) Houston
3) Chicago
4) Minnesota
5) Philadelphia

6) Michigan State 81, Illinois 72: Some nights Illinois looks like a Final Four team, then there are nights like tonight. You have to win four tournament games in a row to make the Final Four; is Illinois consistent enough?

5) There are already 110 kids on the college basketball transfer portal; with this year being a free year for college players, meaning that conceivably, everyone playing this year could also come back and play next year, the transfer portal should be fascinating this spring.

Over 1,000 kids transferred last year; I’m guessing this year’s number will be around 1,500.

4) All-Star reserves were announced Tuesday; couple of surprising omissions:
— Phoenis Suns are 20-10; Devin Booker is their best player, scoring 24.7 ppg.
— Domantas Sabonis is one of four players averaging at least 20 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists per game.

NBA All-Star Game is way harder to make than the baseball/football All-Star Games

3) Michigan’s football team has six new assistant coaches for next season; now all ten of Jim Harbaugh’s assistant coaches are under 40 years old, which is highly unusual.

2) Georgia 91, LSU 78— Dismal effort by LSU, which is now 4-5 in its last nine games. LSU is #329 in the country in assists/FG’s made, meaning they go 1-on-1 a lot and depend on their rebounding for scoring. Not the best recipe for March, especially for experience team #327.

1) Auburn star Sharife Cooper has his foot in a walking boot, Auburn isn’t playing in the postseason and Cooper is likely headed to the NBA this summer, so his college career is pretty much over. So are Auburn’s chances of winning again this season. They’ve lost 7 of their last 8 games, and finish up with Tennessee/Alabama.

**Udog** · 02-24-2021, 07:55 AM

501GOLDEN STATE -502 INDIANA
INDIANA is 14-3 ATS (10.7 Units) vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons.

503TORONTO -504 MIAMI
MIAMI is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days in the last 3 seasons.

505HOUSTON -506 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game in the current season.

507BOSTON -508 ATLANTA
BOSTON is 156-113 ATS (31.7 Units) in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1996.

509SAN ANTONIO -510 OKLAHOMA CITY
OKLAHOMA CITY is 285-232 ATS (29.8 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game since 1996.

511MINNESOTA -512 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 24-43 ATS (-23.3 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.

513DETROIT -514 NEW ORLEANS
Dwane Casey is 22-40 ATS (-22 Units) when the total >=220 (Coach of DETROIT)

513DETROIT -514 NEW ORLEANS
DETROIT is 22-40 ATS (-22 Units) when the total >=220 in the last 3 seasons.

517LA LAKERS -518 UTAH
UTAH is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in home games off a home win by 10 points or more in the current season.

**Udog** · 02-24-2021, 07:57 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, February 24

Golden State @ Indiana
Warriors (17-15)
— Golden State won five of its last eight games SU.
— Warriors are 3-6 ATS as road underdogs TY.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five road games.

Pacers (15-14)
— Indiana won three of its last four games.
— Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last ten home games.
— Over is 3-0 in Indiana’s last three games.

— Pacers won four of last six series games.
— Warriors covered three of last four trips to Indiana.
— Over is 6-4 in last ten series games.

Boston @ Atlanta
Celtics (15-16)
— Boston is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games.
— Celtics are 3-9 ATS in last 12 road games.
— Over is 3-1 in last four Boston games.

Hawks (13-18)
— Atlanta lost six of eight, nine of last 12 games.
— Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
— Nine of Atlanta’s 11 games went over the total.

— Boston won eight of last nine series games.
— Celtics covered their last three visits to Atlanta.
— Three of last four series games went over.

Houston @ Cleveland
Rockets (11-18)
— Houston lost its last eight games (1-7 ATS).
— Rockets covered twice in their last seven road games.
— Over is 4-2 in their last six games.

Cavaliers (10-21)
— Cleveland snapped an 0-10 skid last nite (1-13 ATS last 14).
— Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
— Last four Cleveland games stayed under the total.

— Houston won five of last six series games.
— Rockets are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Cleveland.
— Under is 3-2 in last five series games played here.

Toronto @ Miami
Raptors (16-16)
— Toronto won/covered four of five, nine of its last 13 games.
— Raptors are 9-3 ATS in their last dozen road games.
— Under is 4-0 in last four Toronto games.

Heat (14-17)
— Miami won three in row, seven of its last ten games overall.
— Heat is 0-8-1 ATS in last nine home games.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five home games.

— Toronto won six of last nine series games.
— Raptors are 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Miami.
— Last four series games stayed under the total.

Minnesota @ Chicago
Timberwolves (7-25)
— Minnesota lost nine of last ten, 19 of its last 23 games.
— Wolves are 1-3 ATS in their last four road games.
— Four of last six Minnesota games stayed under the total.

Bulls (14-16)
— Chicago won four of its last five games SU.
— Bulls are 3-6-1 ATS in their last ten home games.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four games.

— Minnesota won eight of last ten series games.
— Timberwolves are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Chicago.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.

Detroit @ New Orleans
Pistons (9-22)
— Detroit lost eight of its last 12 games (1-3 ATS last four)
— Pistons are 3-6-3 ATS in last 12 road games.
— Under is 9-4 in Detroit’s last 13 games.

Pelicans (13-17)
— New Orleans lost five of its last seven games overall.
— Pelicans are 6-4 ATS in their last ten home games.
— Over is 15-2-2 in their last 19 games.

— Detroit won three of last four series games.
— Pistons covered their last three visits to Bourbon Street.
— Four of last six series games stayed under.

San Antonio @ Oklahoma City
Spurs (16-11)
— Spurs haven’t played in ten days.
— San Antonio won five of its last six games overall.
— Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
— Under is 4-2 in Spurs’ last six games.

Thunder (12-19)
— Thunder lost seven of last nine games (1-4 ATS last five)
— OKC is 4-9-1 ATS at home this season.
— Under is 6-1 in their last seven games.

— San Antonio won six of last nine series games.
— Spurs are 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Oklahoma.
— Under is 5-4-1 in last ten series games.

Charlotte @ Phoenix
Hornets (14-16)
— Charlotte won four of its last seven games.
— Hornets are 1-3 ATS in their last four road games.
— Over is 6-2 in Charlotte’s last eight road games.

Suns (20-10)
— Phoenix won/covered 12 of its last 14 games.
— Suns are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.
— Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.

— Suns won last two series games, after losing previous five.
— Charlotte is 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Phoenix.
— Over is 8-2 in last ten series games.

LA Lakers @ Utah
Lakers (22-10)
— Lakers lost four of last five games, are 2-7 ATS in last nine.
— Lakers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.
— Under is 13-3 in their road games this season.

Jazz (25-6)
— Utah won 21 of its last 23 games (20-2-1 ATS).
— Jazz is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games.
— Over is 5-2 in Utah’s last six games overall.

— Lakers won/covered last four series games.
— Lakers are 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Utah.
— Three of last four series games went over.

**Udog** · 02-24-2021, 08:00 AM

NBA

Wednesday, February 24

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Trend Report
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Golden State @ Indiana
Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games on the road
Golden State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana
Indiana is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games when playing at home against Golden State
Indiana is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Golden State

Boston @ Atlanta
Boston
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Boston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Atlanta's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home

Houston @ Cleveland
Houston
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games

Toronto @ Miami
Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Toronto

Minnesota @ Chicago
Minnesota
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Chicago
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing Minnesota

Detroit @ New Orleans
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of New Orleans's last 14 games at home

San Antonio @ Oklahoma City
San Antonio
San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Antonio is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games at home

Charlotte @ Phoenix
Charlotte
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Charlotte's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Charlotte's last 11 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix
Phoenix is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Phoenix is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

LA Lakers @ Utah
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of LA Lakers's last 19 games on the road
Utah
Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

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**Udog** · 02-24-2021, 09:21 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, February 24

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GOLDEN STATE (17 - 15) at INDIANA (15 - 14) - 2/24/2021, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 74-50 ATS (+19.0 Units) in home games against Pacific division opponents since 1996.
INDIANA is 184-146 ATS (+23.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 2-2 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 2-2 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (16 - 16) at MIAMI (14 - 17) - 2/24/2021, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 255-208 ATS (+26.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-4 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 6-3 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (11 - 18) at CLEVELAND (11 - 21) - 2/24/2021, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 31-45 ATS (-18.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 20-34 ATS (-17.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 40-54 ATS (-19.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 58-33 ATS (+21.7 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
CLEVELAND is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in non-conference games this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON (15 - 16) at ATLANTA (13 - 18) - 2/24/2021, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 65-51 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 5-4 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 8-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (16 - 11) at OKLAHOMA CITY (12 - 19) - 2/24/2021, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 63-44 ATS (+14.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 1139-1010 ATS (+28.0 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 384-304 ATS (+49.6 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 458-383 ATS (+36.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 5-3 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 5-3 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (7 - 25) at CHICAGO (14 - 16) - 2/24/2021, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 37-56 ATS (-24.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 28-50 ATS (-27.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 28-41 ATS (-17.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) after allowing 130 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
CHICAGO is 35-53 ATS (-23.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 147-195 ATS (-67.5 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.
CHICAGO is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in home games after scoring 115 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 24-43 ATS (-23.3 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (9 - 22) at NEW ORLEANS (13 - 17) - 2/24/2021, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 56-86 ATS (-38.6 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 133-101 ATS (+21.9 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (14 - 16) at PHOENIX (20 - 10) - 2/24/2021, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 205-256 ATS (-76.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
CHARLOTTE is 39-61 ATS (-28.1 Units) in road games after allowing 115 points or more since 1996.
PHOENIX is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 44-31 ATS (+9.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 43-27 ATS (+13.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 55-80 ATS (-33.0 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 3-1 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 2-2 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (22 - 10) at UTAH (25 - 6) - 2/24/2021, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all games this season.
UTAH is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
UTAH is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
UTAH is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games this season.
UTAH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
UTAH is 14-1 ATS (+12.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
UTAH is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
UTAH is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
UTAH is 20-4 ATS (+15.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
UTAH is 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 6-1 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 5-2 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 02-24-2021, 09:28 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, February 24

**Udog** · 02-24-2021, 09:30 AM

**Udog** · 02-24-2021, 11:29 AM

Hoop Trends for Wednesday February 24
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: L.A. Lakers at Utah (10:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Jazz are 19-0 ATS (9.16 ppg) as a favorite off a win.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Minnesota at Chicago (8:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Timberwolves are 0-15-1 ATS (-7.06 ppg) after Karl-Anthony Towns was their high scorer last game.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Golden State at Indiana (7:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Warriors are 12-0 OU (16.54 ppg) with no rest off a win as a favorite in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Houston at Cleveland (7:35 p.m. ET)

-- The Rockets are 0-10 OU (-16.15 ppg) off a game as a dog in which Eric Gordon shot worse than 33 percent.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

**Udog** · 02-24-2021, 11:33 AM

Breaking Down the Utah Jazz's Historic ATS Run
Jason Logan

The Jazz have been steamrolling teams and have an NBA-best 25-6 record and 23-8 ATS mark. They're winning by an average of 9.8 points per game and have been betting favorites in all but three contests.

The Utah Jazz are making sweet, sweet NBA betting music this season. Heading into Wednesday's home game versus the Los Angeles Lakers, the Jazz are not only the NBA’s top team at 25-6 SU but also its best bet at 23-8 against the spread.

That red-hot ATS record has earned +12.9 units for NBA bettors or a windfall of $1,290 if you wagered $100 on each of Utah’s 31 games this season at flat -110 juice.

Those earnings are bolstered by two winning streaks: an 11-game ATS run between January 8 and January 29 and an eight-game ATS streak that was snapped in Friday's 116-112 road loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, with Utah closing as a 1-point road underdog.

Utah's historic ATS run

The Jazz were 18-2 ATS in the 20 games heading into last Thursday's 114-96 win in the first of two road stops versus Clippers (failing to cover in back-to-back outings on January 31 and February 2), which ranked as the second-best 20-game ATS stretch in the past 30 NBA seasons. And, depending on the closing spread used for grading Utah's 117-105 win over Detroit on February 2 (-12 or -12.5), that mark could have been 18-1-1 ATS.

The 2014-15 Atlanta Hawks own the top 20-game ATS run in that span, posting a 19-1 ATS mark from December 15 to January 21 (a streak that went 20-1 ATS before coming to an end). Those Hawks also strung together 15 consecutive ATS wins – another NBA betting record.

Utah boasted an average margin of victory of 15.6 points during that 11-game ATS stretch versus an average point spread of -5.5. On the year, the Jazz own an average margin of victory of 9.8 points per game and closed as betting favorites in all but three of their 31 contests.

Can the Jazz keep covering?

As the momentum builds and the bettors get wise to Utah's profitable push (now 20-3 ATS in the past 23 outings), oddsmakers will pad those spreads knowing that public money is coming. And once that money comes in, these spreads can make major moves before tipoff.

Take Utah's recent eight-game ATS run for example. The Jazz faced an average closing spread of -6.6 but those lines opened at an average of -5.1, moving up 1.5 points per game. Utah opened -3.5 at L.A. Thursday (the first of two road games vs. the Clippers) and jumped to -4.5 before moving to -6.5 upon news that Los Angeles would be without stars Paul George and Kawhi Leonard.

According to Consensus numbers, Utah garnered an average of 57 percent of bets placed during those eight contests, including 60, 57, 69, and 59 percent of bets in four of those outings, despite taking on three of the tougher teams in the Eastern Conference in the Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat, and Milwaukee Bucks—as well as the Clippers.

Eventually, there will be a tipping point when public perception pushes the spreads too high, opening up value on the other side of the board. Friday's loss to L.A. could have started the dominoes falling, however, that game saw different line movement as past outings due to the available statuses of George and Leonard (Utah opened as low as -2 and climbed as high as -5 before L.A.'s star were given the thumbs up, shrinking this line as low as Jazz +1).

One thing working for Utah backers during this magical season is that the Jazz aren't a very popular team among casual NBA fans. If the Los Angeles Lakers or Boston Celtics had started stringing together ATS wins left and right, you could be sure the public players would be all over it and any value would dry up faster than a ShamWow in the middle of the Utah salt flats.

Looking at the 2014-15 Hawks (another team outside of the NBA public darlings), they opened with a 33-12 ATS record in the first 45 games of the schedule, another NBA betting best.

As Atlanta's streak gained attention from the betting public, however, the spreads grew and the betting bonanza eventually came to an abrupt halt when the Hawks were installed as 17.5-point home favorites versus Minnesota on January 25, 2015, winning the game 112-100 but falling short of that pile of chalk. That tipped off a 1-4 ATS skid for the Hawks, who also faced lofty spreads of -14 and -16 in that span.

Atlanta would finish the season with a 50-31-1 record against the spread, going 17-19-1 ATS in its final 37 games (then falling flat with a 6-10 ATS mark in the playoffs). The Hawks boasted an average margin of victory of +4.5 points per game that season.

Looking at the all-time best bets in NBA gambling history, the 2009-10 Bucks are at the top of the mountain with a 52-28-2 ATS record in an 82-game season (the 2011-12 San Antonio Spurs went 43-22-1 ATS in a 66-game lockout-shortened schedule).

The Bucks, who covered at an incredible 65 percent clip that year, strung together 10 straight covers and went on an 11-0-1 ATS tear between February 19 and March 12. Milwaukee, which went 46-36 SU, owned an average margin of victory of only +1.3 points per game.

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Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/24

Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/24

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