Announcement

**Udog** · 02-15-2021, 09:35 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six of the college teams that play the best FG% defense:
42.1%— opponents’ eFG%- Houston
43.1— Michigan
43.6— USC
44.1— Memphis
45.1— Alabama
45.5— Texas

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 485,235
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

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Armadillo: Monday's Den: Going thru college basketball conferences

Selection Sunday is less than four weeks away; no one even knows yet how Championship Week is going to play out; will every conference have a tournament this year, or just a lot of makeup games, so the better teams can jack up their power ratings?

Here is what I think/know about how teams look heading into the season’s stretch run:

AAC— Houston is 17-2, the AAC’s only sure bet to be in the field of 68; Cougars beat Texas Tech on a neutral floor in November, will be a popular sleeper pick in people’s brackets.

Cincinnati is 4-0 since their 25-day COVID pause; the four wins were by a total of nine points. Memphis, SMU still have a shot to play their way into at-large bids.

ACC— When ESPN’s announcers openly talk about the ACC being down this year, you KNOW the league is down. kenpom.com has ACC as the #4 league, tied for its lowest ranking since 2013. Right now, Virginia/Florida State look like the only sure things for the NCAA’s.

ACC will wind up with 2-3 other teams in the field, but it’ll be dependent on who wins lot of games from now on. Louisville is on a pause; Virginia Tech and UNC should get in if the wheels don’t fall off for them. Duke is 8-8, 6-6 in league; they’re a bubble team.

A-14— Some teams in this league have been hit hard by the pandemic; Davidson hasn’t played in three weeks, Saint Louis went 34 days between games, Fordham didn’t play a game until December 30, then fired its coach.

Their conference tournament will be one of the better ones; the winner might be the only A-14 team in the field of 68.

Big East— Villanova/Creighton are in, Seton Hall is mostly in. Rest of the league better get hot, or they’ll be in the NIT. KenPom has the Big East at #5, as low as they’ve been since 2002.

UConn lost lost four of its last six games; Xavier just had a 2-week pause. Under Patrick Ewing., Georgetown is 23-42 in regular season conference games; how does he get to fix things?

Big 14— One of the most interesting parts of Selection Sunday will be how many teams from this league get in the field of 68. Pundits on the Big 14 Network would have you believe that every team in the league is tournament-worthy, but we know thats not true. Why should a team that finishes 9th or 10th in a 14-team league get to play for a national title?

Michigan came off a 23-day layoff Sunday and had a terrific comeback win at Wisconsin; Ohio State has won 9 of its last 10 games, Illinois has won five in a row (with two OT wins). One of the things I’ll be looking at is if Iowa gets in the same bracket as a real athletic underdog, a team like VCU or Loyola or Oregon.

Big X— Baylor hasn’t played in three weeks; my thing is that teams will need 3-4 games before the tournament to get their sea legs back. Oklahoma won its last won 7 of its last 8 games, and has a coach who has taken two other schools to a Final Four. They’re going to get six teams in the tournament unless Oklahoma State gets hot and makes it seven.

Texas was 11-2 before their 10-day COVID pause; they’re 3-2 since, but won their last couple games- they’re a team to watch between now and Selection Sunday.

Big West— I enjoy watching Big West games on my laptop late at night; its a good league, not a great league, but highly competitive. Adding Cal-Bakersfield made their conference tournament a hell of a lot harder- they’re a tough defensive team that doesn’t score points early, a lot like Cal-Irvine, another one of the league’s frontrunners.

Cal-Santa Barbara hasn’t lost yet in 2021 (10-0); this is the best team Cal-Riverside has ever had, and with a first-year head coach. Bottom part of the league has been on pause a lot; the semi-final doubleheader at the Big West tournament will be must-see TV.

Conference USA— North Texas/Western Kentucky seem like the two best teams; Mean Green hasn’t made the tournament since 2010, WKU hasn’t made it since 2013. UAB, Louisiana Tech also have a legit shot to win the tournament; this is a one-bid league.

Last three NCAA tournaments, C-USA had three different teams repping it, and none of those three were North Texas/Western Kentucky. Hilltoppers have an NBA big man in Bassey and three senior starters; this is Rick Stansbury’s time to shine.

Mountain West— Utah State, Boise State, San Diego State figure to battle it out in Las Vegas; Aztecs can get an at-large bid even if they lose in Vegas- they beat UCLA, Arizona State back before Christmas. San Diego State plays Boise State twice in a couple weeks; Aztecs got swept by Utah State. All three of those teams shouldo be in the Mountain West Final Four.

Bottom half of this league is really bad; the bottom three teams are a combined 6-35. Aztecs will sweat some on Selection Sunday if they lose in the MW tournament, but they’re likely the only team in the league that rates an at-large bid.

Pac-12— Contrary to what Bill Walton talks about on ESPN every week, league is a little down- Arizona’s being ineligible because of recruiting violations is a big part of that. I’m thinking four teams from Pac-12 get in. Right now, USC is clearly the best team, but Andy Enfield won more NCAA tourney game at Florida Gulf Coast (2) than he has with the Trojans (1).

UCLA lost three of its last five games; Mick Cronin hasn’t had a great record in March. Oregon usually gets stronger as time goes on; they’re likely to make some noise next month. Colorado has a veteran team, but they play one good game, then have a stinker- their last three losses are to Washington, Utah, Cal, all bad losses.

SEC— The most 2020 thing in college hoop is that Kentucky is 6-13, 6-7 in conference; curious to see if John Calipari is in the CBS studio during the first round of the tournament. With the league’s perennial frontrunner out of the picture, that leaves Alabama as the best team- they’re fun to watch, play a very fast pace, but they don’t have a great basketball pedigree (one win in NCAA’s, since 2007).

SEC figures to get five other teams in the field of 68; Arkansas, Florida, LSU, Missouri, Tennessee. Would expect all six teams to win their first round game; not sure any of them, other than Alabama, will get to the Sweet 16.

Southern— Much like the Big West, I’m looking forward to the semi-finals of this tournament; this is a one-bid league, so when East Tennessee, Furman, NC-Greensboro and Wofford likely face off in the semi-finals, it’ll be very entertaining.

WCC— Gonzaga is in this league; they’re this generation’s version of Jerry Tarkanian’s great UNLV teams from 30-40 years ago. Big fish, small pond, strong national footprint. Gonzaga is going to be favored to win a national title; that springs added pressure.

BYU is only other WCC team that has a shot at an at-large bid; they have wins over San Diego State, Utah. BYU probably needs to get to 20 wins for that to happen; they’re a mature team in terms of the players’ ages, which has to help in a weird season like this one.

**Udog** · 02-15-2021, 09:46 AM

519CHICAGO -520 INDIANA
CHICAGO is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

521HOUSTON -522 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 451-516 ATS (-116.6 Units) in home games since 1996.

523ATLANTA -524 NEW YORK
NEW YORK is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game in the current season.

525PHILADELPHIA -526 UTAH
UTAH is 10-0 ATS (10 Units) after 2 consecutive non-conference games in the current season.

527MIAMI -528 LA CLIPPERS
MIAMI is 32-13 ATS (17.7 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders in the last 3 seasons.

529CLEVELAND -530 GOLDEN STATE
CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game in the current season.

**Udog** · 02-15-2021, 09:51 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Monday, February 15

**Udog** · 02-15-2021, 09:52 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, February 15

Chicago @ Indiana
Bulls (10-15)
— Chicago lost four of its last six games SU.
— Bulls are 9-3 ATS on the road this season.
— Over is 6-2 in their last eight road games.

Pacers (14-13)
— Indiana won its last two games, after a 1-6 skid.
— Pacers are 2-7 ATS in last nine home games.
— Four of Indiana’s last five games stayed under the total.

— Pacers won/covered last six series games.
— Chicago covered once in its last five visits to Indiana.
— Last four series games went over the total.

Houston @ Washington
Rockets (11-15)
— Houston lost its last five games (0-5 ATS).
— Rockets covered once in their last five road games.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.

Wizards (7-17)
— Wizards lost four of their last six games.
— Washington is 4-8 ATS at home this season.
— Under is 6-1 in Wizards’ last seven games.

— Houston won last three series games.
— Rockets are 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Washington.
— Over is 6-2-1 in last nine series games.

Atlanta @ New York
Hawks (11-15)
— Atlanta lost six of its last seven games.
— Hawks are 3-1 ATS in their last four road games.
— Five of Atlanta’s six games went over the total.

Knicks (13-15)
— New York won four of its last six games (5-1 ATS).
— Knicks are 4-2 ATS in last six home games.
— Under is 7-3 in New York’s last ten games.

— Knicks won six of last eight series games.
— Hawks are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Manhattan.
— Three of last four series games went over.

Philadelphia @ Utah
76ers (18-9)
— 76ers lost three of their last five games.
— Sixers are 3-6-2 ATS in last 11 road games.
— Over is 6-2 in Philly’s last eight road games.

Jazz (22-5)
— Utah won seven in row, 17 of its last 18 games (17-1-1 ATS).
— Jazz is 11-0-1 ATS in its last 12 home games.
— Over is 5-3-1 in Utah’s last nine home games.

— 76ers won five of last six series games (6-0 ATS)
— 76ers covered four of last five visits to Utah.
— Under is 7-3 in last ten series games.

Cleveland @ Golden State
Cavaliers (10-18)
— Cleveland lost nine of its last ten games (0-10 ATS).
— Cavaliers are 1-10 ATS in last 11 road games.
— Cavaliers’ last four games went over the total.

Warriors (14-13)
— Golden State is 4-5 SU in its last nine games.
— Warriors are 4-5 ATS in last nine home games.
— Under is 3-1 in Golden State’s last four home games.

— Warriors won last ten series games (7-3 ATS)
— Cleveland is 3-2 ATS in last five visits to the Bay Area.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.

Miami @ LA Clippers
Heat (11-15)
— Miami won four of its last five games (3-2 ATS).
— Heat is 5-7 ATS on the road this season.
— Under is 5-1 in their last six games.

Clippers (20-8)
— Clippers won their last three games, by 7-9-17 points.
— Clippers are 4-6 ATS in last ten games at Staples.
— Over is 7-1 in their last eight games.

— Clippers won/covered last four series games.
— Miami is 2-2 ATS in last four series games played here.
— Last three series games went over the total.

Brooklyn @ Sacramento
Nets (16-12)
— Brooklyn lost four of its last seven games.
— Nets are 2-6 ATS in last eight road games.
— 19 of last 22 Brooklyn games went over the total.
— Durant (hamstring) is out here.

Kings (12-14)
— Sacramento lost its last three games, by 8-11-14 points.
— Kings are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.
— Over is 11-3 in their last 14 home games.

— Brooklyn won/covered last four series games.
— Nets are 3-1 ATS in last four visits to Sacramento.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven series games.

**Udog** · 02-15-2021, 09:54 AM

NBA

Monday, February 15

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Trend Report
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Chicago @ Indiana
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Chicago's last 14 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Indiana
Indiana
Indiana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago

Houston @ Washington
Houston
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Washington
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Houston

Atlanta @ New York
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Atlanta's last 13 games on the road
New York
New York is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
New York is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

Philadelphia @ Utah
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Utah
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Utah
Utah
Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Cleveland @ Golden State
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Golden State
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland

Miami @ LA Clippers
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
LA Clippers
LA Clippers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games

Brooklyn @ Sacramento
Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Brooklyn's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 19 of Brooklyn's last 22 games
Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games at home

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**Udog** · 02-15-2021, 10:12 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, February 15

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CHICAGO (10 - 15) at INDIANA (14 - 13) - 2/15/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 6-3 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 9-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (11 - 15) at WASHINGTON (7 - 17) - 2/15/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 23-38 ATS (-18.8 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 20-32 ATS (-15.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 39-52 ATS (-18.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 114-80 ATS (+26.0 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
HOUSTON is 57-32 ATS (+21.8 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 349-412 ATS (-104.2 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 145-190 ATS (-64.0 Units) off an upset win as an underdog since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (11 - 15) at NEW YORK (13 - 15) - 2/15/2021, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 6-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 6-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (18 - 9) at UTAH (22 - 5) - 2/15/2021, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all games this season.
UTAH is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
UTAH is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
UTAH is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games this season.
UTAH is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
UTAH is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
UTAH is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
UTAH is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
UTAH is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
UTAH is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-0 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (11 - 15) at LA CLIPPERS (20 - 8) - 2/15/2021, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 88-62 ATS (+19.8 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 4-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 4-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (10 - 18) at GOLDEN STATE (14 - 13) - 2/15/2021, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games this season.
CLEVELAND is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 232-285 ATS (-81.5 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
CLEVELAND is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CLEVELAND is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
CLEVELAND is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in home games after allowing 130 points or more since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 40-59 ATS (-24.9 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 35-52 ATS (-22.2 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 2-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 3-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BROOKLYN (16 - 12) at SACRAMENTO (12 - 14) - 2/15/2021, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BROOKLYN is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 72-49 ATS (+18.1 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 4-0 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 4-0 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 02-15-2021, 10:42 AM

Hoop Trends for Monday February 15
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Philadelphia at Utah (9:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Jazz are 17-0 ATS (9.44 ppg) as a favorite off a win.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Houston at Washington (7:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Wizards are 0-16-1 ATS (-11.21 ppg) off a win as a dog where they made at least 10 more free throws than their opponent.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Chicago at Indiana (7:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Bulls are 15-0 OU (17.63 ppg) as a road dog with more than one day of rest off a home game in which their opponent shot over 50% from the field.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Cleveland at Golden State (10:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Warriors are 0-10 OU (-8.80 ppg) as a home favorite after Draymond Green had more assists than shot attempts last game.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

**Udog** · 02-15-2021, 10:44 AM

Announcement

Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/15

Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/15

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