Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/11

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Thursday, February 11

Good Luck on day #42 of 2021!

NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Odds for this week’s Pebble Beach PGA tournament:
15-2— Patrick Cantlay
14-1— Daniel Berger
18-1— Paul Casey
19-1— Will Zalatoris
21-1— Jason Day
23-1— Francesco Molinari, Jordan Spieth

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 468,117
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.


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Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) If the Seahawks trade Russell Wilson, I’ll be doing snow angels on my front lawn and I’m not kidding. As a Ram fan, watching them defend Wilson twice a year (3 times this past year) for the last nine seasons hasn’t been fun.

Send him to Las Vegas, the Jets, Houston— anywhere outside the NFC West!!!

12) Last bet I made in Las Vegas was October 2019, Seattle @ Cleveland. Seahawks won 32-28, I had some great pizza at Bonanno’s (around corner from excellent sportsbook at MGM Grand) and all was well with the world. Rooting for Wilson is more fun than rooting against him.

While you were sleeping the other night, I was watching movies and doing research. Here are some trends on how teams who lost a Super Bowl fared the next season:

11) 37 of 54 Super Bowl losers made the playoffs again the next season.

10) 8 of 54 Super Bowl losers made it back to the Super Bowl the next year, going 3-5.

Three teams that won the Super Bowl the year after losing one:
— 1971 Cowboys
— 1972 Dolphins
— 2018 Patriots

9) Last team to lose the Super Bowl 2+ years in a row: the 1990-93 Bills.

8) From 1974-86, the loser of the Super Bowl made the playoffs the next season every year, but went only 2-12 in playoff games.

7) Overall, Super Bowl losers are 32-34 SU in playoff games the following season.

Elsewhere…….
6) There was a 3-way trade in baseball:
— Royals get OF Andrew Benitendi
— Red Sox get OF Franchy Cordero and P prospect Josh Winckowski
— Mets get OF prospect Khalil Lee

5) From what I read/hear on the Interweb, the Houston Texans are a tremendous mess.

Team president Jamey Rootes quit Wednesday, at least in part from tensions over the front office’s recent general manager search. I’ve never heard of this freakin’ guy, but they said on TV that the team’s owner ignored the work the search committee did on finding a new GM. Roones has worked for Houston for 20 years, so his quitting is no small thing.

Rootes’ resignation comes a week after the Texans fired Kevin Krajcovic, director of football administration, as well as equipment manager Mike Parson- they also fired a PR person who had been there for years.

Cal McNair has run the Texans since his father passed away; he got thoroughly ripped on an ESPN talkshow Wednesday, by three ex-NFL players. We’ll see if they wind up trading QB Deshaun Watson, but if I was a Texans’ fan, I’d be pretty queasy right now.

4) Over last two NBA seasons, Dallas Mavericks have lost 23 games by 5 or fewer points, the most of any team in the league.

3) Heard a new TV analyst on ESPNU Wednesday; former North Carolina coach Matt Doherty, who was a pleasant surprise. He spoke his mind, gave out some Dean Smith tidbits, and was generally upbeat and candid.

I’ve said this a lot here; the best announce teams are when you feel like you’re eavesdropping on two friends watching a game. Thats what this was like, so a good hire by ESPN.

2) Washington’s NFL team re-signed QB Taylor Heinicke, I’m guessing to be their backup again next season. Heinicke threw for 306 yards in Washington’s playoff game last month; you would think they’ll try to acquire a bigger name to start next year, but Heinicke proved he belongs in the league.

1) Weird season in college basketball; Kentucky is 5-13, Duke is 7-8. Michigan State is 4-7 in conference games. March is going to be a very interesting month.

[Udog]

533INDIANA -534 DETROIT
DETROIT is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in home games versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game in the current season.

535MIAMI -536 HOUSTON
MIAMI is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

537PHILADELPHIA -538 PORTLAND
PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) after having won 2 of their last 3 games in the current season.

539ORLANDO -540 GOLDEN STATE
ORLANDO is 124-166 ATS (-58.6 Units) after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread since 1996.

573TORONTO -574 BOSTON
BOSTON is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

[Udog]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, February 11

Miami @ Houston
Heat (10-14)
— Miami won its last three games SU.
— Heat is 4-6 ATS on the road this season.
— Under is 8-4 in their last 12 games.

Rockets (11-13)
— Houston lost four of its last five games.
— Rockets covered once in their last six home games.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five games.

— Rockets won four of last six series games.
— Miami is 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Houston.
— Three of last four series games stayed under.

Toronto @ Boston
Raptors (12-13)
— Toronto won/covered four of its last five games.
— Raptors are 7-3 ATS in last ten road games.
— Last seven Toronto games went over the total.

Celtics (12-11)
— Boston lost eight of its last 12 games.
— Celtics are 6-2 ATS at home this season.
— Three of last four Boston games went over the total.

— Road team won last ten series games.
— Toronto covered three of last four visits to Boston.
— Under is 8-2 in last ten series games.

Indiana @ Detroit
Pacers (12-13)
— Indiana lost four in row, six of its last seven games.
— Pacers are 1-4 ATS in last five road games.
— Indiana’s last three games stayed under the total.

Pistons (6-18)
— Detroit lost nine of its last 12 games.
— Pistons are 8-2 ATS in last ten home games.
— Over is 3-1 in Detroit’s last four games.

— Pistons won three of last four series games.
— Pacers covered once in last five visits to Detroit.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.

Orlando @ Golden State
Magic (9-16)
— Orlando lost 14 of its last 17 games (4-13 ATS)
— Magic is 2-7 ATS in last nine road games.
— Over is 7-4-1 in their road games this season.

Warriors (13-12)
— Golden State split its last dozen games.
— Warriors are 8-4 SU/ATS in last 12 home games.
— Under is 7-3 in Golden State’s last ten home games.

— Golden State won eight of last ten series games.
— Magic covered three of last five visits to the Bay Area.
— Six of last eight series games stayed under total.

Philadelphia @ Portland
76ers (17-7)
— 76ers won 11 of their last 14 games. (5-1-1 ATS last seven)
— Sixers are 3-0-1 ATS in last four road games.
— Under is 5-2 in Philly’s last seven games overall.

Trailblazers (12-10)
— Portland won three of its last four games, covered five of last seven.
— Blazers are 3-8 ATS at home.
— Over is 7-3 in Portland’s last ten games.
— Starting G McCollum/C Nurkic are both out.

— Blazers won five of last six series games.
— 76ers are 0-2-1 ATS in last three visits to Portland.
— Last six series games went over the total.

[Udog]

NBA

Thursday, February 11

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Trend Report
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Miami @ Houston
Miami
Miami is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Miami's last 14 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Miami

Toronto @ Boston
Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games on the road
Boston
Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Toronto

Indiana @ Detroit
Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Indiana is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indiana

Orlando @ Golden State
Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Orlando's last 8 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Orlando's last 8 games when playing Golden State
Golden State
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Orlando
Golden State is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing Orlando

Philadelphia @ Portland
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Portland
Portland
Portland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Portland is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia


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[Udog]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, February 11

[Udog]

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, February 11

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INDIANA (12 - 13) at DETROIT (6 - 18) - 2/11/2021, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 100-70 ATS (+23.0 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
DETROIT is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-3 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 4-4 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (10 - 14) at HOUSTON (11 - 13) - 2/11/2021, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MIAMI is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (18 - 7) at PORTLAND (13 - 10) - 2/11/2021, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 4-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ORLANDO (9 - 16) at GOLDEN STATE (13 - 12) - 2/11/2021, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 21-36 ATS (-18.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 40-57 ATS (-22.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 68-95 ATS (-36.5 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 2-2 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 2-2 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (12 - 13) at BOSTON (12 - 11) - 2/11/2021, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 62-46 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 11-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 10-6 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

[Udog]

Hoop Trends for Thursday February 11
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Miami at Houston (7:35 p.m. ET)

-- The Heat are 9-0 ATS (8.28 ppg) on the road off a game as a favorite in which Duncan Robinson shot worse than 33 percent.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Orlando at Golden State (10:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Warriors are 0-12 ATS (-7.08 ppg) at home off a road win in which their opponent shot under 40% from the field.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Toronto at Boston (7:35 p.m. ET)

-- The Celtics are 13-0-1 OU (18.39 ppg) as a favorite with less than two days rest off a road loss.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Miami at Houston (7:35 p.m. ET)

-- The Rockets are 0-15 OU (-11.43 ppg) at home with less than two days rest after they had at least 30% of their points from threes.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

[Udog]

Shawn,

Can you see Dunkel and the referee assignments in this thread?