Announcement

**Udog** · 01-31-2021, 08:53 AM

Do not inflict your will. Just give love. The soul will take that love and put it where it can best be used.

**Udog** · 01-31-2021, 08:53 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Most passing yards in a Super Bowl:
365— Kurt Warner
373— Nick Foles
377— Kurt Warner
414— Kurt Warner
466— Tom Brady
505— Tom Brady

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 436,117
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out

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Armadillo: Sunday's Den: Early thoughts on a blockbuster trade

Was all set to write a fascinating summary of Saturday’s college basketball action, then around 10pm, news broke of a blockbuster trade in the NFL, and it involved the Rams, so I opened up a cold bottle of Sierra Mist as my head spun around like Linda Blair in The Exorcist.

I could write about this for the next two days, but you’d probably get bored reading it, so I’ll try and keep it to the essential points. I won’t succeed, but I’ll try.

— November 1, 2008 I was at a Tennessee-South Carolina game in Columbia; we tailgated in a field and watched college games all afternoon on big-screen TV tucked in luggage compartment of a Winnebago- it was a very excellent day, an hour of which was spent debating the merits of Matthew Stafford as a quarterback— he was in his last year at Georgia.

My friend didn’t (probably still doesn’t) like Stafford as a QB; I was in his corner, and now, 12 years later, he is the Rams’ QB, my team’s quarterback. Hope I was right back then.

— By the way, we had Church’s Fried Chicken that day, the absolute best fried chicken I’ve ever had. They have a couple Church’s stores in Las Vegas; it is worth a cab ride to get some.

— Stafford-for-Goff is the first player-for-player trade this century involving players who were both taken first overall in an NFL Draft, Stafford in 2009, Goff seven years later.

— Detroit’s new GM is Brad Holmes, who had been the Rams’ director of scouting. Because Holmes is a minority, the Rams got two 3rd-round picks when he was named Detroit’s GM— one of those now goes back to the Lions, as part of this deal.

— Six other teams were trying to acquire Stafford; the Rams didn’t have a first round pick this year, so they kicked in two 1st-round picks (2022, 2023), plus that 3rd-round pick.

— Remember this phrase: salary cap relief. Goff’s contract is way heavier than Stafford’s, and the Rams have several other (good) players they’d like to keep— this deal will let them do that.

— A summation of the QB’s records:
— Stafford is 74-93-1 as an NFL starter, 0-3 in playoff games.
— Goff is 44-30 as an NFL starter, 2-3 in playoff games, but he also won the Seattle playoff game a few weeks ago, in relief.

— Only 14 QB’s have started a Super Bowl in their first three years in the NFL; Goff was #13.

— Lions visit SoFi Stadium next fall; I’m guessing that’ll be a Monday night game.

— Last time the Rams had a first round pick was 2016, when they took Goff. Now, the next first round pick they have is 2024; they traded for Goff, Brandin Cooks, Jalen Ramsey and now Stafford. GM Les Snead likes to trade picks for known quantities— seeing how the Rams are 46-27 the last four years, I’d say Les Snead is doing a damn fine job, and so is coach McVay.

— Speaking of which, think about this: the quarterback has a radio in his helmet, and that voice is in his ear every play, until the play clock hits 0:15, For the last four years, the voice in Goff’s ear was McVay, who is known as a quarterback guru.

The last time McVay wasn’t in Goff’s ear, things didn’t go so well, but he was a rookie back then, and now he has a good body of work behind him. Former Chargers’ coach Anthony Lynn is Detroit’s new offensive coordinator.

— Goff doesn’t like cold weather, and Chicago/Green Bay (Lions’ NFC North rivals) have outdoor stadiums, where it gets cold late in the season. Really cold.

— Stafford’s 0-3 career playoff record raises eyebrows: here are the games:
2011— L45-28 @ New Orleans. Was 28-43/380 passing, with 3 TD’s, 2 INT’s.
2014— L24-20 @ Dallas. Was 28-42/323 passing, with one TD, one INT in his hometown.
2016— L26-6 @ Seattle. Was 18-32/205 passing. Game was 10-6 after three quarters.

— Hopefully next December, I’ll be worrying about his playoff record, because that’ll mean the Rams made the playoffs.

— An obscure and hopefully irrelevant detail: Goff’s father played major league baseball, and Jared Goff is a big SF Giants fan, which means he dislikes the Dodgers, which isn’t a really great thing for LA’s quarterback. Now he isn’t LA’s quarterback anymore.

When Matthew Stafford was a high school QB in Texas, the center he took snaps from was a kid named Clayton Kershaw, who is now a great pitcher for the Dodgers. So at least now the Rams’ quarterback will throw out the first pitch at a Dodger game.

**Udog** · 01-31-2021, 09:07 AM

517UTAH -518 DENVER
UTAH is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game in the current season.

519PHILADELPHIA -520 INDIANA
PHILADELPHIA is 6-20 ATS (-16 Units) in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons.

523ORLANDO -524 TORONTO
TORONTO is 16-4 ATS (11.6 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games in the last 3 seasons.

523ORLANDO -524 TORONTO
Nick Nurse is 16-4 ATS (11.6 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games (Coach of TORONTO)

525BROOKLYN -526 WASHINGTON
BROOKLYN is 31-14 ATS (15.6 Units) in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points in the last 3 seasons.

527CLEVELAND -528 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) in home games after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread in the last 3 seasons.

527CLEVELAND -528 MINNESOTA
Ryan Saunders is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) in home games after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread (Coach of MINNESOTA)

**Udog** · 01-31-2021, 09:10 AM

NBA

Sunday, January 31

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Trend Report
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LA Clippers @ New York
LA Clippers
LA Clippers is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing New York
LA Clippers is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
New York
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New York's last 7 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 6 games at home

Utah @ Denver
Utah
Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Denver
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

Philadelphia @ Indiana
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Indiana is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

Orlando @ Toronto
Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Orlando's last 9 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Orlando's last 24 games on the road
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Orlando
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Orlando

Brooklyn @ Washington
Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Brooklyn's last 15 games
Washington
Washington is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Brooklyn

Cleveland @ Minnesota
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 10 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland

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**Udog** · 01-31-2021, 09:11 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, January 31

LA Clippers @ New York
Clippers (15-5)
— Clippers won nine of their last ten games.
— Clippers are 6-3 ATS on road.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

Knicks (9-11)
— New York lost three of its last three games.
— Knicks split their eight home games.
— Under is 6-2 in New York’s home games.

— Clippers won nine of last ten series games (6-4 ATS)
— LA covered four of its last five visits to Manhattan.
— Six of last seven series games went over.

Utah @ Denver
Jazz (15-4)
— Utah won/covered its last 11 games.
— Jazz won/covered their last four road games.
— Over is 3-1-1 in last five Utah games.

Nuggets (11-8)
— Denver won/covered five of its last six games.
— Nuggets are 4-5 SU/3-6 ATS on the road.
— Over is 4-1 in Denver’s last five games.

— Denver won three of last four series games.
— Jazz is 2-3-1 ATS in last six visits to Colorado.
— Over is 6-3 in last nine series games.

Philadelphia @ Indiana
76ers (14-6)
— 76ers won seven of their last nine games.
— Sixers are 1-4-1 ATS in last six road games.
— Under is 6-3 in Philly’s road games.

Pacers (11-8)
— Indiana is 3-4 in its last seven games.
— Pacers are 4-5 SU in last nine home games.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven games overall.

— Home side won last five series games.
— 76ers are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Indiana.
— Eight of last ten series games stayed under.

Orlando @ Toronto
Magic (8-12)
— Orlando lost 10 of its last 12 games (3-9 ATS)
— Magic is 2-5 ATS in last seven road games.
— Over is 6-3-1 in their road games

Raptors (7-12)
— Toronto lost four of its last six games.
— Raptors lost three of their four “home” games (3-7 ATS).
— Five of last seven Toronto games stayed under the total.

— Toronto won last eight series games (7-1 ATS)
— Magic were 1-5 in last six visits to Toronto.
— Under is 7-2 in last nine series games.

Brooklyn @ Washington
Nets (13-8)
— Brooklyn won eight of its last ten games.
— Nets lost four of their seven road games.
— 14 of last 15 Brooklyn games went over the total.

Wizards (3-12)
— Wizards lost six of their last seven games.
— Washington is 1-6 SU at home (2-5 ATS)
— Over is 4-3 in Wizards’ home games.

— Wizards won four of last five series games.
— Nets are 2-3 ATS in last five visits here.
— Three of last four series games stayed under.

Cleveland @ Minnesota
Cavaliers (9-10)
— Cleveland lost three of its last four games (5-2 ATS in last seven).
— Cavaliers lost five of their last six road games.
— Six of Cavaliers’ last seven games went over the total.

Timberwolves (4-14)
— Minnesota lost 14 of its last 16 games.
— Wolves are 4-2 ATS in last six games as a home dog.
— Three of Minnesota’s last four games went over the total.
— Karl-Anthony Towns (COVID) is likely out here.

— Minnesota won three of last four series games.
— Cavaliers covered four of last five visits to the Twin Cities.
— Eight of last ten series games went over.

**Udog** · 01-31-2021, 10:21 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, January 31

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UTAH (15 - 4) at DENVER (11 - 8) - 1/31/2021, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games this season.
UTAH is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
UTAH is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
UTAH is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 8-7 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 8-7 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (14 - 6) at INDIANA (11 - 8) - 1/31/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 5-3 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 4-4 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (15 - 5) at NEW YORK (9 - 11) - 1/31/2021, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 77-53 ATS (+18.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 3-0 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ORLANDO (8 - 12) at TORONTO (7 - 12) - 1/31/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 20-32 ATS (-15.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 8-5 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 10-3 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
10 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BROOKLYN (13 - 8) at WASHINGTON (3 - 12) - 1/31/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BROOKLYN is 79-51 ATS (+22.9 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1996.
BROOKLYN is 35-19 ATS (+14.1 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-3 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 5-3 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (9 - 10) at MINNESOTA (4 - 14) - 1/31/2021, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 136-191 ATS (-74.1 Units) after scoring 85 points or less since 1996.
CLEVELAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 30-50 ATS (-25.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 22-35 ATS (-16.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-29 ATS (-19.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-32 ATS (-20.2 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 23-44 ATS (-25.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 01-31-2021, 10:26 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, January 31

**Udog** · 01-31-2021, 10:44 AM

Hoop Trends for Sunday January 31
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Philadelphia at Indiana (7:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Pacers are 11-0 ATS (11.18 ppg) with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 15 fouls.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Cleveland at Minnesota (8:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Cavaliers are 0-12 ATS (-13.12 ppg) as a favorite off a loss in which they shot under 40% from the field.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Utah at Denver (3:35 p.m. ET)

-- The Nuggets are 11-0 OU (14.09 ppg) as a home dog off a road loss.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day (8:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup: Brooklyn at Washington (7:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Nets are 0-10-2 OU (-9.04 ppg) with rest coming off a road win where they had 30+ assists.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

**Udog** · 01-31-2021, 10:48 AM

Announcement

Sunday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/31

Sunday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/31

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