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**Udog** · 01-14-2021, 09:34 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Updated odds to win NBA title:
2-1— Lakers
7-2— Brooklyn
8-1— Clippers, Milwaukee
20-1— Boston, Miami
30-1— Dallas, Denver, Phoenix, Portland, Utah
60-1— Golden State, Toronto

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 381,116
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

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Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) Brooklyn Nets grabbed the headlines Wednesday when they traded for James Harden, in a 4-way deal that had to have the salary cap guys recharging their iPhones a couple times.

— Nets get James Harden
— Pacers get Caris LaVert and a 2nd round pick
— Cavaliers get Jarrett Allen, Taurean Prince
— Rockets got four 1st round draft picks, four pick swaps with Brooklyn, plus:
Victor Oladipo, Dante Exum, Rodions Kurcus

Very unusual for a blockbuster like this to happen during the season.

12) Harden and Kevin Durant have won 7 of the last 11 NBA scoring titles; Nets become the first team ever with two players who have won 3+ scoring titles each.

Why is that? Because there is only one basketball in a game; to win a scoring title, you have to have that ball a great deal of the time. It is going to take a lot of cooperation for this to work.

11) Put yourself in Steve Nash’s shoes; after a Hall of Fame playing career, Nash is a rookie head coach at age 46, charged with coaching a team with:
— 32-year old Kevin Durant coming off an achilles injury
— 31-year old Kyrie Irving, who missed the last two weeks for personal issues
— and now a thinned-out roster after acquiring the prolific Harden, who is 31.

Nets need to add three more players before the playoffs start, in order to contend for a title. One has to be a backup center.

10) Wednesday morning, Nets were +$550 to win the NBA title; now they’re +$300.

9) Texas Tech 79, Texas 77:
— High-level game, could’ve been an Elite 8 or Final Four game.
— Tech was 22-28 on foul line, Texas 18-31
— Longhorns led 48-38 at halftime.
— Texas had 15 turnovers, Red Raiders 7
— Teams meet again in the last regular season game, February 27

8) Saw something in that game I don’t think I’ve ever seen in a real game before; have seen it on the playground a few times, but never in a serious game.

Tech’s Mac McClung, who transferred to Tech from Georgetown, was driving towards the hoop, about 12 feet from the basket on the left side of the lane and he leaves his feet while throwing the ball off the backboard- to himself, where he grabbed it and got fouled trying to score.

You have to be pretty damn sure you’re not getting taken out of the game if you do stuff like that; McClung scored 22 points for the 11-3 Red Raiders, playing 36:00. He doesn’t come out often.

7) UConn star James Bouknight is out indefinitely after having surgery on his left elbow; he hurt the elbow diving for a loose ball the other night. Bouknight is averaging 20.3 ppg.

6) How are NBA teams on the second night of back/backs?
— Road team that played at home night before: 4-4-1 ATS
— Road team that also played on road night before: 11-8 ATS
— Home team that played at home night before: 10-6 ATS
— Home team that also played on road night before: 5-4 ATS

That adds up to 30-22-1 ATS, surprisingly good.

5) JaKarr Sampson is a forward for the Indiana Pacers; at age 27, he is already on his fifth NBA team. This is another guy who must be good at packing:

2014-16: played 121 games for the 76ers, scored 5.2 ppg in 15.1 mpg.
2016: finished that season playing 26 games for Denver, scoring 5.2 ppg in 18 mpg
2016-17: Played in the G-League.
2017-18: Scored 4.7 ppg in 15.6 mpg in 22 games for Sacramento.
2018-19: Played only four games for Chicago.
2019-20: Scored 4.9 ppg in 13.6 mpg in 34 games for Indiana
2020-21: Is scoring 2.5 ppg in 6.7 mpg for Indiana.

Sampson played two years at St John’s, scoring 13.9 ppg; he played in the Chinese league a couple times too, for a team in Shandong. He is on his way to writing an interesting book.

4) Dallas 104, Charlotte 93:
— Kristaps Porzingis made his season debut, scoring 16 points in 21:00.
— Charlotte’s Gordon Hayward strained his hip, left the game early.

3) Florida State 105, NC State 73:
— Seminoles hadn’t played in 15 days; they played really, really well.
— FSU shot 72.5% inside the arc, made 12-18 shots on the arc.
— Seminoles’ 1.52 ppp is highest ppp I’ve ever seen.

2) Why do people wear watches? Everyone carries cellphones, which obviously have clocks in them. Seems like a waste of money to buy a watch.

1) If you’re a football coach for the Cal Bears, I’m guessing you’ll be on the phone making recruiting calls Saturday afternoon, seeing how the Rams-Packers playoff game has couple of Cal Bears playing quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff. Good advertising for the program.

**Udog** · 01-14-2021, 09:42 AM

567MIAMI -568 PHILADELPHIA
MIAMI is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

569CHARLOTTE -570 TORONTO
TORONTO is 13-2 ATS (10.8 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons.

571HOUSTON -572 SAN ANTONIO
SAN ANTONIO is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons.

575INDIANA -576 PORTLAND
INDIANA is 44-27 ATS (14.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% in the last 3 seasons.

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, January 14

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, January 14

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MIAMI (4 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (8 - 4) - 1/14/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 73-49 ATS (+19.1 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 77-51 ATS (+20.9 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game since 1996.
MIAMI is 75-51 ATS (+18.9 Units) after allowing 115 points or more since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 33-49 ATS (-20.9 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 5-3 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-4 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (6 - 6) at TORONTO (2 - 8) - 1/14/2021, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 3-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-3 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (3 - 6) at SAN ANTONIO (6 - 5) - 1/14/2021, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 1130-1003 ATS (+26.7 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 575-485 ATS (+41.5 Units) in home games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 225-173 ATS (+34.7 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 454-381 ATS (+34.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
HOUSTON is 138-101 ATS (+26.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 4-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-3 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (6 - 5) at DENVER (5 - 6) - 1/14/2021, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 26-43 ATS (-21.3 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 4-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 4-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (7 - 4) at PORTLAND (7 - 4) - 1/14/2021, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 4-0 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 3-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Thursday, January 14

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Trend Report
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Miami @ Philadelphia
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Miami

Charlotte @ Toronto
Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Charlotte's last 6 games
Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Toronto's last 11 games when playing Charlotte

Houston @ San Antonio
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing San Antonio
San Antonio
San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston

Golden State @ Denver
Golden State
Golden State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Denver's last 14 games

Indiana @ Portland
Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games on the road
Portland
Portland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Portland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana

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**Udog** · 01-14-2021, 12:47 PM

Hoop Trends for Thursday January 14
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Charlotte at Toronto (7:35 p.m. ET)

-- The Raptors are 12-0 ATS (12.58 ppg) as a home 8+ point favorite after they had less than 15% of their points from free throws last game.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Houston at San Antonio (7:35 p.m. ET)

-- The Spurs are 0-13 ATS (-10.23 ppg) at home coming off a win as a favorite.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Golden State at Denver (10:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Nuggets are 11-0 OU (14.09 ppg) as a home dog off a loss in a road game.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Charlotte at Toronto (7:35 p.m. ET)

-- The Raptors are 0-11 OU (-10.73 ppg) as a home 8+ point favorite off a loss in which Kyle Lowry was not their high scorer.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

Announcement

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/14

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/14

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