Announcement

**Udog** · 01-06-2021, 08:48 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Spreads for this weekend’s Wild Card games:
— Indianapolis @ Buffalo (-6.5, 51)
— LA Rams @ Seattle (-4, 42.5)
— Tampa Bay (-9, 45) @ Washington
— Baltimore (-3, 55.5) @ Tennessee
— Chicago @ New Orleans (-9.5, 47)
— Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-6, 47.5)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 351,774
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's Den: Some early college basketball knowledge

This is another unusual college basketball season, but hopefully this season will play out until the end, which obviously didn’t happen last year. Here is some early knowledge……..

13) Michigan (4-0) is the only unbeaten team left in the Big 14; there are fewer turnovers in this league than in any league in the country. Lot of half-court basketball.

While I’m typing this up, I’m watching re-runs of the old TV show The West Wing, and who shows up on one episode but Michigan coach Juwan Howard, who shows up playing pick-up ball with the President and his staff. This was 1999; Howard was still an active player.

7-2 Rutgers looks like they’ll make the NCAA’s for first time since 1991.

12) Oklahoma State starts out 1-3 in Big X, after going 6-0 out of conference; Cowboys are #312 in experience, #280 in continuity. Their best player is freshman Cade Cunningham, who won’t be in college three months from now— he’ll be getting ready for the NBA Draft, but he’ll likely stay engaged here, since his brother is an assistant coach at Oklahoma State.

11) North Carolina is 6-4, 1-2 in the ACC; they’re experience team #325. Duke is off to a 3-2 start, 1-0 in ACC; they haven’t played since December 16, and are experience team #338. Seems like a bad year to have an inexperienced team.

10) Teams from the bigger conferences with the most experience:
AAC: Tulsa, SMU, East Carolina
ACC: Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Florida State
A-14: Richmond, Dayton, Saint Louis
Big East: Seton Hall, Georgetown, Creighton
Big 14: Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan
Big X: Oklahoma, Iowa State, Texas
Pac-12: Oregon, Colorado, California
SEC: Missouri, Georgia, Ole Miss

9) Teams from the bigger conferences with the least experience:
AAC: Tulane, Memphis, Central Florida
ACC: Duke, Louisville, North Carolina
A-14: UMass, St Joe’s, LaSalle
Big East: Butler, St John’s, Marquette
Big 14: Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern
Big X: Kansas State, TCU, Oklahoma State
Pac-12: Washington State, Arizona, Utah
SEC: Auburn, Kentucky, LSU

8) Maybe this category is more important than experience; continuity. How long have teams been together. Teams that cobble together transfers may have more experience, but they’re still getting to know each other.

Teams from the bigger conferences with the most
AAC: East Carolina, Memphis, South Florida
ACC: Georgia Tech, Clemson, Florida State
A-14: Richmond, Duquesne, Saint Louis
Big East: Villanova, Creighton, UConn
Big 14: Wisconsin, Rutgers, Illinois
Big X: Texas, West Virginia, Oklahoma
Pac-12: UCLA, Utah, Stanford
SEC: Missouri, South Carolina, Texas A&M

7) Montana Grizzlies started out Big Sky play 1-3; the four games were decided by a total of six points. Montana hasn’t finished under .500 in Big Sky play since 2004.

6) Seton Hall split its six non-conference games, but is off to a 5-1 start in Big East play; their only conference loss was to Providence, in overtime. Overall, Pirates have played schedule #33 so far this season.

5) Two years ago, Washington was 27-9, 15-3 in Pac-12, a 9-seed in the NCAA’s, but since then, Huskies are 16-24, 5-16 in league games. Washington is 1-7 this season; their only win is over #280 Seattle.

Oregon/UCLA are tied for first place at 3-0; Arizona is 9-1, 3-1 in conference, but they’re not going to the NCAA’s this year, and they’re experience team #281, so some regression is expected. Stanford won five of its last six games; they’re 6-3, vs schedule #40.

4) Kentucky is 2-6; one win was in double OT, the other over #275 Morehead State. Wildcats are #339 in experience, turning ball over 22.8% of time (#288)- lack of a true point guard seems to be an issue.

Tennessee is 7-1, with wins over Colorado, Cincinnati, Missouri; they defend very well, have overcome some COVID issues already.

3) Teams who take highest %age of their shots behind the arc:
58.6%- Wofford
53.9%- Evansville
52.4%- UNLV
52.3%- Akron
51.9%- Florida International, Auburn

2) San Diego State is off to a 7-2 start, but they led 33-7 in one of the games they lost. You wouldn’t think the #8 team in experience would blow a lead like that. Utah State/Boise State would appear to be San Diego State’s biggest challengers in the Mountain West.

UNLV hasn’t played since December 5th; they were off to a 1-4 start anyway- no depth.

1) Tulsa won its last five games after a 1-3 start; their last three D-I wins are over Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, all quality wins. Golden Hurricane is #34 experience team that has played schedule #57- they force turnovers 22.3% of the time.

8-1 Houston is favored in the AAC; 6-4 Memphis has been a bit of a disappointment.

**Udog** · 01-06-2021, 08:50 AM

511HOUSTON -512 INDIANA
HOUSTON is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

513WASHINGTON -514 PHILADELPHIA
WASHINGTON is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots in the last 3 seasons.

515CLEVELAND -516 ORLANDO
CLEVELAND is 136-190 ATS (-73 Units) after scoring 85 points or less since 1996.

517BOSTON -518 MIAMI
BOSTON is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games after 2+ road games over the last 2 seasons.

519CHARLOTTE -520 ATLANTA
CHARLOTTE is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) in road games after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

521UTAH -522 NEW YORK
NEW YORK is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.

523OKLAHOMA CITY -524 NEW ORLEANS
OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) after 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

525DETROIT -526 MILWAUKEE
DETROIT is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game in the last 3 seasons.

525DETROIT -526 MILWAUKEE
Dwane Casey is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game (Coach of DETROIT)

527TORONTO -528 PHOENIX
PHOENIX is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) off a loss against a division rival in the last 3 seasons.

**Udog** · 01-06-2021, 08:53 AM

NBA

Wednesday, January 6

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Trend Report
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Houston @ Indiana
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 9 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indiana's last 9 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston

Cleveland @ Orlando
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Orlando
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland

Washington @ Philadelphia
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 9 games

Charlotte @ Atlanta
Charlotte
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Charlotte's last 6 games
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Charlotte
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Charlotte

Boston @ Miami
Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games when playing Miami
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Boston

Utah @ New York
Utah
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Utah's last 9 games when playing New York
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games when playing on the road against New York
New York
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New York's last 9 games when playing Utah
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 6 games when playing at home against Utah

Detroit @ Milwaukee
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

Oklahoma City @ New Orleans
Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of New Orleans's last 17 games

Toronto @ Phoenix
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Toronto is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Phoenix
Phoenix is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Phoenix is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

LA Clippers @ Golden State
LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 9 of LA Clippers's last 11 games when playing on the road against Golden State
LA Clippers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Golden State's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Golden State's last 11 games when playing at home against LA Clippers

Chicago @ Sacramento
Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
Sacramento
Sacramento is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago

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**Udog** · 01-06-2021, 10:00 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, January 6

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HOUSTON (2 - 3) at INDIANA (5 - 2) - 1/6/2021, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 182-142 ATS (+25.8 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.
HOUSTON is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 113-76 ATS (+29.4 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (2 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (6 - 1) - 1/6/2021, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 144-186 ATS (-60.6 Units) off an upset win as an underdog since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) in road games after allowing 115 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 21-40 ATS (-23.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 72-47 ATS (+20.3 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-3 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 5-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (4 - 3) at ORLANDO (5 - 2) - 1/6/2021, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 136-190 ATS (-73.0 Units) after scoring 85 points or less since 1996.
ORLANDO is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 4-3 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 6-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON (5 - 3) at MIAMI (3 - 3) - 1/6/2021, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 54-39 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 32-19 ATS (+11.1 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 8-5 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 7-6 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (2 - 5) at ATLANTA (4 - 3) - 1/6/2021, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 66-93 ATS (-36.3 Units) after allowing 115 points or more since 1996.
ATLANTA is 18-30 ATS (-15.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-2 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-3 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (4 - 3) at NEW YORK (4 - 3) - 1/6/2021, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 25-37 ATS (-15.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 4-0 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (2 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (4 - 3) - 1/6/2021, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 50-34 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-34 ATS (-17.4 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-4 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-3 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (1 - 6) at MILWAUKEE (4 - 3) - 1/6/2021, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 234-283 ATS (-77.3 Units) after a division game since 1996.
DETROIT is 52-79 ATS (-34.9 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 102-81 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 50-32 ATS (+14.8 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 27-8 ATS (+18.2 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 56-39 ATS (+13.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 10-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 12-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (1 - 5) at PHOENIX (5 - 2) - 1/6/2021, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
PHOENIX is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 2-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-0 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (4 - 4) at SACRAMENTO (3 - 4) - 1/6/2021, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (5 - 3) at GOLDEN STATE (4 - 3) - 1/6/2021, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 72-49 ATS (+18.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 19-33 ATS (-17.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 29-47 ATS (-22.7 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 29-45 ATS (-20.5 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 7-6 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 7-6 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 01-06-2021, 12:03 PM

NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, January 6

**Udog** · 01-06-2021, 12:51 PM

Hoop Trends for Wednesday Jan. 6
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Houston at Indiana (7:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Pacers are 13-0 ATS (7.62 ppg) after a game as a road dog in which Victor Oladipo was their high scorer.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Detroit at Milwaukee (8:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Bucks are 0-12 ATS (-12.62 ppg) with rest off a win in which they had 6+ double digit scorers.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Washington at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Wizards are 10-0 OU (11.35 ppg) as a dog off a win in which they had fewer than 10 turnovers.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Utah at New York (7:35 p.m. ET)

-- The Knicks are 0-11 OU (-17.82 ppg) after Julius Randle had at least 5 turnovers last game.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

Announcement

Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/6

Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/6

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