Announcement

**Udog** · 01-06-2021, 07:45 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Spreads for this weekend’s Wild Card games:
— Indianapolis @ Buffalo (-6.5, 51)
— LA Rams @ Seattle (-4, 42.5)
— Tampa Bay (-9, 45) @ Washington
— Baltimore (-3, 55.5) @ Tennessee
— Chicago @ New Orleans (-9.5, 47)
— Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-6, 47.5)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 351,774
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's Den: Some early college basketball knowledge

This is another unusual college basketball season, but hopefully this season will play out until the end, which obviously didn’t happen last year. Here is some early knowledge……..

13) Michigan (4-0) is the only unbeaten team left in the Big 14; there are fewer turnovers in this league than in any league in the country. Lot of half-court basketball.

While I’m typing this up, I’m watching re-runs of the old TV show The West Wing, and who shows up on one episode but Michigan coach Juwan Howard, who shows up playing pick-up ball with the President and his staff. This was 1999; Howard was still an active player.

7-2 Rutgers looks like they’ll make the NCAA’s for first time since 1991.

12) Oklahoma State starts out 1-3 in Big X, after going 6-0 out of conference; Cowboys are #312 in experience, #280 in continuity. Their best player is freshman Cade Cunningham, who won’t be in college three months from now— he’ll be getting ready for the NBA Draft, but he’ll likely stay engaged here, since his brother is an assistant coach at Oklahoma State.

11) North Carolina is 6-4, 1-2 in the ACC; they’re experience team #325. Duke is off to a 3-2 start, 1-0 in ACC; they haven’t played since December 16, and are experience team #338. Seems like a bad year to have an inexperienced team.

10) Teams from the bigger conferences with the most experience:
AAC: Tulsa, SMU, East Carolina
ACC: Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Florida State
A-14: Richmond, Dayton, Saint Louis
Big East: Seton Hall, Georgetown, Creighton
Big 14: Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan
Big X: Oklahoma, Iowa State, Texas
Pac-12: Oregon, Colorado, California
SEC: Missouri, Georgia, Ole Miss

9) Teams from the bigger conferences with the least experience:
AAC: Tulane, Memphis, Central Florida
ACC: Duke, Louisville, North Carolina
A-14: UMass, St Joe’s, LaSalle
Big East: Butler, St John’s, Marquette
Big 14: Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern
Big X: Kansas State, TCU, Oklahoma State
Pac-12: Washington State, Arizona, Utah
SEC: Auburn, Kentucky, LSU

8) Maybe this category is more important than experience; continuity. How long have teams been together. Teams that cobble together transfers may have more experience, but they’re still getting to know each other.

Teams from the bigger conferences with the most
AAC: East Carolina, Memphis, South Florida
ACC: Georgia Tech, Clemson, Florida State
A-14: Richmond, Duquesne, Saint Louis
Big East: Villanova, Creighton, UConn
Big 14: Wisconsin, Rutgers, Illinois
Big X: Texas, West Virginia, Oklahoma
Pac-12: UCLA, Utah, Stanford
SEC: Missouri, South Carolina, Texas A&M

7) Montana Grizzlies started out Big Sky play 1-3; the four games were decided by a total of six points. Montana hasn’t finished under .500 in Big Sky play since 2004.

6) Seton Hall split its six non-conference games, but is off to a 5-1 start in Big East play; their only conference loss was to Providence, in overtime. Overall, Pirates have played schedule #33 so far this season.

5) Two years ago, Washington was 27-9, 15-3 in Pac-12, a 9-seed in the NCAA’s, but since then, Huskies are 16-24, 5-16 in league games. Washington is 1-7 this season; their only win is over #280 Seattle.

Oregon/UCLA are tied for first place at 3-0; Arizona is 9-1, 3-1 in conference, but they’re not going to the NCAA’s this year, and they’re experience team #281, so some regression is expected. Stanford won five of its last six games; they’re 6-3, vs schedule #40.

4) Kentucky is 2-6; one win was in double OT, the other over #275 Morehead State. Wildcats are #339 in experience, turning ball over 22.8% of time (#288)- lack of a true point guard seems to be an issue.

Tennessee is 7-1, with wins over Colorado, Cincinnati, Missouri; they defend very well, have overcome some COVID issues already.

3) Teams who take highest %age of their shots behind the arc:
58.6%- Wofford
53.9%- Evansville
52.4%- UNLV
52.3%- Akron
51.9%- Florida International, Auburn

2) San Diego State is off to a 7-2 start, but they led 33-7 in one of the games they lost. You wouldn’t think the #8 team in experience would blow a lead like that. Utah State/Boise State would appear to be San Diego State’s biggest challengers in the Mountain West.

UNLV hasn’t played since December 5th; they were off to a 1-4 start anyway- no depth.

1) Tulsa won its last five games after a 1-3 start; their last three D-I wins are over Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, all quality wins. Golden Hurricane is #34 experience team that has played schedule #57- they force turnovers 22.3% of the time.

8-1 Houston is favored in the AAC; 6-4 Memphis has been a bit of a disappointment.

**Udog** · 01-06-2021, 07:58 AM

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, January 6

**Udog** · 01-06-2021, 08:00 AM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, January 6

Tulsa @ South Florida
Tulsa (6-3, 3-1)
— ranked #79 by KenPom
— Tempo: #322
— Experience: #34
— Continuity: #186
— Tulsa won its last five games after a 1-3 start.
— Tulsa’s last three D-I wins: Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati
— Tulsa is forcing turnovers 22.3% of time (#55)

South Florida (6-4, 2-2)
— ranked #100 by KenPom
— Tempo: #252
— Experience: #109
— Continuity: #68
— USF lost four of its six top 100 games.
— Bulls are turning ball over 21.5% of time (#255)
— USF is shooting only 59.1% on foul line (#329).

— Tulsa won all nine AAC meetings.
— Tulsa won last four visits here, by 17-12-8-9 points.

UMass @ George Washington
UMass (2-3, 1-1)
— ranked #114 by KenPom
— Tempo: #31
— Experience: #333
— Continuity: #199
— Three UMass losses are by total of nine points.
— Minutemen split their two road games so far.
— UMass has #316 eFG% defense in country.

George Washington (3-7, 2-1)
— ranked #208 by KenPom
— Tempo: #168
— Experience: #272
— Continuity: #211
— GW won two of last three games, after a 1-6 start.
— To this point, Colonials have played schedule #291.
— GW lost four of its five top 200 games.

— George Washington won last eight series games.
— Minutemen lost last four visits here, by 6-22-16-12 points.

Rhode Island @ Richmond
Rhode Island (5-5, 2-1)
— ranked #76 by KenPom
— Tempo: #134
— Experience: #114
— Continuity: #292
— URI lost both its road games, 11 at Wisconsin, 3 at WKU.
— Rams lost four of their seven top 100 games.
— URI won last game in OT, after being down four with 0:20 left.

Richmond (7-3, 1-1)
— ranked #59 by KenPom
— Tempo: #130
— Experience: #11
— Continuity: #10
— Spiders lost two of last three games, after a 6-1 start.
— Richmond lost last two home tilts (Hofstra, St Bonaventure)
— Spiders have #27 eFG% in country.

— Teams split last four series games.
— Rams won two of last three visits to Richmond.

Virginia Tech @ Louisville
Virginia Tech (8-1, 2-0)
— ranked #42 by KenPom
— Tempo: #302
— Experience: #210
— Continuity: #116
— Tech won its first two ACC games, by 2-6 points.
— Hokies won their last four games overall.
— Tech is getting 43.1% of its points on arc (36.5%, #77)

Louisville (7-1, 2-0)
— ranked #24 by KenPom
— Tempo: #325
— Experience: #337
— Continuity: #325
— Louisville’s only loss came after an 18-day layoff.
— Cardinals allowed 59 ppg in three wins since then.
— Louisville won first two ACC games by 10-12 points.

— Louisville won all six ACC meetings.
— Hokies lost last four visits here, by 15-4-8-16 points.

Wichita State @ Houston
Wichita State (6-2, 2-0)
— ranked #83 by KenPom
— Tempo: #247
— Experience: #133
— Continuity: #222
— Wichita won last three D-I games, by 4-5-4 points, all on road
— Shockers split their four top 100 games.
— To this point, Wichita has played schedule #25.

Houston (8-1, 3-1)
— ranked #9 by KenPom
— Tempo: #314
— Experience: #181
— Continuity: #105
— Houston’s one loss was by a point at Tulsa.
— Houston’s three AAC wins were by 26-9-14 points.
— Cougars are forcing turnovers 24.9% of time (#15)

— Houston won five of six AAC meetings.
— Shockers lost last three visits here, by 14-9-33 points.

Georgetown @ Butler
Georgetown (3-6, 1-4)
— ranked #106 by KenPom
— Tempo: #75
— Experience: #41
— Continuity: #245
— Hoyas lost last three games, by 11-11-4 points.
— Georgetown is turning ball over 21.9% of time (#267)
— Under Ewing, Hoyas are 20-42 in Big East games.

Butler (2-5, 1-3)
— ranked #83 by KenPom
— Tempo: #290
— Experience: #273
— Continuity: #281
— Butler’s Big East losses are by 19-16-8 points.
— Bulldogs split pair with Providence, their only Big East win.
— Butler has #323 eFG% defense in country.

— Teams split last eight series games.
— Hoyas won their last four games in Hinkle Fieldhouse.

Arkansas @ Tennessee
Arkansas (9-1, 1-1)
— ranked #40 by KenPom
— Tempo: #29
— Experience: #223
— Continuity: #329
— Arkansas lost its last game, at home to Missouri.
— Hogs won their only road game, by 12 at Auburn.
— Arkansas has #22 eFG% defense in country.

Tennessee (7-1, 1-1)
— ranked #8 by KenPom
— Tempo: #295
— Experience: #221
— Continuity: #89
— Tennessee lost its last game, at home to Alabama.
— Vols have three top 100 wins: Colorado, Cincinnati, Missouri
— Tennessee is forcing turnovers 25.3% of time (#14).

— Tennessee won three of last four series games.
— Razorbacks lost last two visits to Knoxville, by 19-21 points.

St John’s @ Xavier
St John’s (6-4, 1-3)
— ranked #92 by KenPom
— Tempo: #16
— Experience: #260
— Continuity: #204
— St John’s is playing its first game in 17 days.
— Red Storm lost both its road games, by 9-3 points.
— St John’s is forcing turnovers 23.5% of time (#29).

Xavier (8-2, 1-2)
— ranked #6 by KenPom
— Tempo: #194
— Experience: #117
— Continuity: #5
— Xavier lost its last two games, after an 8-0 start.
— Musketeers won four of their six top 100 games.
— Xavier has #25 eFG% in country.

— Xavier won last eleven series games.
— Johnnies lost last five games in Cintas Center.

Minnesota @ Michigan
Minnesota (10-2, 3-2)
— ranked #31 by KenPom
— Tempo: #109
— Experience: #325
— Continuity: #148
— Gophers are 0-2 on Big 14 road, losing by 27-12 points.
— Home team won all five of their conference games.
— Minnesota won four of its six top 100 games.

Michigan (9-0, 4-0)
— ranked #10 by KenPom
— Tempo: #211
— Experience: #64
— Continuity: #142
— Michigan won its last three games, by 11-11-19 points.
— Wolverines are shooting 61.7% inside arc (#6)
— Michigan doesn’t sub a lot (bench minutes #307)

— Michigan won 14 of last 16 series games.
— Gophers lost their last six visits to Ann Arbor.

Seton Hall @ Creighton
Seton Hall (8-4, 5-1)
— ranked #37 by KenPom
— Tempo: #231
— Experience: #15
— Continuity: #123
— Pirates won seven of last eight games, after a 1-3 start.
— Seton Hall won last three road tilts (Penn St, Marquette, Xavier)
— To this point, Seton Hall has played schedule #40.

Creighton (8-2, 4-1)
— ranked #14 by KenPom
— Tempo: #71
— Experience: #48
— Continuity: #18
— Creighton’s two losses were by total of 6 points.
— Bluejays won last four games, last three by 2-5-2 points.
— Bluejays are shooting 57.1% inside arc (#21)

— Teams split last eight series games.
— Pirates lost three of last four visits to Omaha.

Oklahoma @ Baylor
Oklahoma (6-2, 2-1)
— ranked #44 by KenPom
— Tempo: #125
— Experience: #68
— Continuity: #46
— Sooners are 1-1 on road; their last road game was Dec 9th.
— Oklahoma’s three Big X games were decided by 4-2-4 points.
— Sooner opponents are shooting 42.2% inside arc (#18).

Baylor (9-0, 2-0)
— ranked #2 by KenPom
— Tempo: #115
— Experience: #145
— Continuity: #62
— Baylor is forcing turnovers 27.3% of time (#5)
— To this point, Bears have played schedule #230.
— Baylor is shooting 43.8% on the arc (#2).

— Baylor won last five series games.
— Sooners won last four visits to Waco, by 6-23-6-4 points.

Auburn @ Ole Miss
Auburn (6-4, 0-2)
— ranked #74 by KenPom
— Tempo: #184
— Experience: #341
— Continuity: #313
— Auburn lost first two SEC games, to Texas A&M/Arkansas.
— Tigers are turning ball over 23.5% of time (#307).
— Auburn lost four of its five top 100 games.

Ole Miss (5-3, 0-1)
— ranked #50 by KenPom
— Tempo: #164
— Experience: #111
— Continuity: #202
— Rebels lost three of their last four games.
— Best team Ole Miss has beaten: #186 NC-Wilmington.
— Rebels are forcing turnovers 26.8% of time (#7).

— Auburn won four of last six series games.
— Teams split last four meetings played here.

Georgia @ LSU
Georgia (7-1, 0-1)
— ranked #91 by KenPom
— Tempo: #14
— Experience: #97
— Continuity: #253
— Dawgs lost last game, by 10 at home to Miss State.
— This is Georgia’s first road game.
— Dawgs are forcing turnovers 23.9% of time (#25).

LSU (6-2, 1-1)
— ranked #26 by KenPom
— Tempo: #196
— Experience: #326
— Continuity: #129
— LSU lost its last game, by 4 at Florida.
— Tigers lost two of their three top 100 games.
— LSU has #13 eFG%, vs schedule #204.

— LSU won last three series games, by 10-4-30 points.
— Dawgs lost four of last five visits to Baton Rouge.

**Udog** · 01-06-2021, 08:03 AM

NCAAB

Wednesday, January 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-06-2021, 08:06 AM

651ST JOSEPHS -652 ST BONAVENTURE
ST JOSEPHS are 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) after a game where they covered the spread in the last 3 seasons.

655PITTSBURGH -656 SYRACUSE
PITTSBURGH is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive conference games in the last 3 seasons.

657SAINT LOUIS -658 LASALLE
LASALLE is 15-5 ATS (9.5 Units) after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.

659MASSACHUSETTS -660 GEORGE WASHINGTON
MASSACHUSETTS are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after a combined score of 165 points or more in the last 3 seasons.

663VIRGINIA TECH -664 LOUISVILLE
LOUISVILLE is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in home games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.

665PENN ST -666 OHIO ST
PENN ST is 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.

669THE CITADEL -670 MERCER
MERCER is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game in the last 3 seasons.

671SAMFORD -672 UT-CHATTANOOGA
SAMFORD is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games vs. good teams (Win Pct: 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons.

673VA COMMONWEALTH -674 GEORGE MASON
GEORGE MASON is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home games after playing a game as a road underdog in the last 3 seasons.

675GEORGETOWN -676 BUTLER
GEORGETOWN is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders in the last 3 seasons.

**Udog** · 01-06-2021, 10:57 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Wednesday, January 6

Announcement

Wednesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 1/6

Wednesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 1/6

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment