Wednesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 12/16

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Wednesday, December 16

Good Luck on day #350 of 2020!

NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Annual salary the next six years for Giannis Antetokounmpo:
2020-21— $27.5M
2021-22— $39.3M
2022-23— $42.5M
2023-24— $45.6M
2024-25— $48.8M
2025-26— $51.9M
Americans who have died from COVID-19: 302,046
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.


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Armadillo: Wednesday's Den: Mid-week musings……..

13) There was a cool story on the Interweb this week about Miami Heat assistant coach Anthony Carter, from back in his playing days.

Summer of 2003, Carter OK’d a $4.1M option to keep playing with Miami, but his agent screwed up and never notified the Heat by the June 30 deadline, so he wound up signing with San Antonio for $750,000 instead. Not good.

The agent has integrity though, and worked a plan to make sure Carter got the $3M+ he lost out on. Apparently, that payment plan was just completed, and Carter finally has the money, It is an unusual story in that player/agent are still good friends, despite the blunder.

12) An offshoot of Carter leaving Miami was that it created cap space for the Heat to acquire Lamar Odom, who the next summer was part of the package Miami sent to the Lakers when they got Shaquille O’Neal. Without the agent’s screw-up, maybe Shaq is never in Miami.

11) This offseason was very short for NBA teams, but Oklahoma City Thunder made 11 trades since last season ended, with 24 players either passing through the Thunder roster, or winding up in Oklahoma this season. OKC also has a ton of draft picks over the next five years.

10) Toronto Raptors will be playing home games in Tampa this season, much like the Blue Jays played home games in Buffalo last summer. Not an ideal situation, but Tampa in the winter is a solid alternative to always being cold.

9) Alabama 83, Furman 80— Paladins led by 16 in first half, by 10 at halftime, but Alabama caught them down the stretch. Furman was 15-36 on the arc, shot 65% inside the arc, but they missed nine of their last ten shots.

Furman has a nice team; they’ll be a problem for someone in March Madness.

What is a paladin, you ask? A paladin is a knight renowned for heroism and chivalry.

8) Illinois 92, Minnesota 65— Gophers came to Champaign 6-0, but got spanked badly here by an Illini squad that has already played four top 100 teams. This was Minnesota’s first game against a top 100 opponent.

Two things after watching Furman/Minnesota tonight:
a) Veteran mid-majors with strong continuity will be very dangerous; they’re TEAMS
b) Teams need to go thru the wars of playing tough opponents, in order to get better. Beating up on stiffs doesn’t make you that much better.

7) Rutgers hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 1991, but they probably will this year; they’re #20 in the KenPom rankings, the highest they’ve been in the 20 years KenPom has been on the Interweb.

6) Virginia Tech 66, Clemson 60— 5-1 Clemson has three wins on neutral floors, but they lose their first true road game of the season. Hokies outscored Clemson 25-12 on the foul line.

5) Underrated fact: Jim Plunkett, Roger Staubach are only two QB’s who won the Heisman Trophy and also won a Super Bowl.

4) Vanderbilt hired Notre Dame’s defensive coordinator Clark Lea as its new football coach; Lea is a Vandy alum, so that makes even more sense.

3) Major League came out in 1988, Bull Durham came out the next year, and here it is 2020 and I still can’t decide which movie I like better.

2) NFL officials are throwing too many intentional grounding flags; the better QB’s are also getting more leeway on those calls. No one pays to watch the officials.

1) Baseball doings:
— C James McCann gets $40.6M over four years from the Mets.
— OF Hunter Renfroe gets $3.1M from the Red Sox, for one year.

[Udog]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, December 16

[Udog]

NCAAB

Wednesday, December 16

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Trend Report
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[Udog]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, December 16

Richmond @ Vanderbilt
Richmond (4-1)
— Experience: #15
— Tempo: #51
— Continuity: #8
— ranked #58 by KenPom
— Spiders lost by 16 at West Virginia Sunday, their first loss.
— Richmond has top 100 wins over Kentucky, Northern Iowa

Vanderbilt (2-0)
— Experience: #260
— Tempo: #170
— Continuity: #90
— ranked #125 by KenPom
— Vandy beat Valparaiso by 6 and beat up on a stiff.
— Commodores took 61 3’s in first two games, making 29.5%.

UMass @ LaSalle
UMass (1-1)
— Experience: #316
— Tempo: #64
— Continuity: #219
— ranked #128 by KenPom
— UMass split a pair with Northeastern over the weekend.
— UMass didn’t sub much in first two games (#261 bench minutes)

LaSalle (2-3)
— Experience: #243
— Tempo: #262
— Continuity: #69
— ranked #128 by KenPom
— LaSalle lost three of four D-I games, falling to Saint Peter’s/Army.
— Explorers are turning ball over 24.5% of time (#290).

— UMass beat LaSalle twice LY, by 11-8 points.

Pittsburgh @ Miami
Pittsburgh (4-1)
— Experience: #297
— Tempo: #101
— Continuity: #94
— ranked #84 by KenPom
— Pitt won its only top 100 game, 71-70 at Northwestern.
— Panthers are shooting 30.1% on arc (#225), 62.7% on line (#271)

Miami (3-1)
— Experience: #113
— Tempo: #198
— Continuity:#48
— ranked #133 by KenPom
— Miami got upset by Florida Gulf Coast in its last game.
— Miami beat Purdue at home; they’re shooting 22.7% on arc (#308).

— Miami won seven of last eight games with Pitt.

Mercer @ Georgia State
Mercer (6-0)
— Experience: #130
— Tempo: #58
— Continuity: #263
— ranked #148 by KenPom
— Three of Mercer’s wins are vs non-D-I teams.
— Bears have road wins at Georgia Tech, Georgia Southern.
— Mercer has made 43.8% of its 3’s (#11)

Georgia State (3-1)
— Experience: #194
— Tempo: #32
— Continuity: #148
— ranked #110 by KenPom
— Panthers haven’t played in 12 days, since winning at Charlotte.
— State hasn’t rebounded well on defensive end (#312).

— Mercer made 11-26 on arc, beat Georgia State 86-69 at home Nov 30.
— Game was 42-37 at half; Mercer survived 19 turnovers (-4)

Ohio State @ Purdue
Ohio State (5-0)
— Experience: #92
— Tempo: #137
— Continuity: #156
— ranked #20 by KenPom
— Buckeyes won by 5 at Notre Dame, also beat four stiffs (schedule #266)
— Ohio State has rebounded 35.9% of their own missed shots (#27)

Purdue (4-2)
— Experience: #301
— Tempo: #273
— Continuity: #156
— ranked #32 by KenPom
— Purdue lost both top 100 games, to Clemson/Miami.
— Boilers are turning ball over 22.3% of time (#245)

— Purdue won four of last six series games.

South Florida @ Cincinnati
South Florida (4-2)
— Experience: #129
— Tempo: #246
— Continuity: #96
— ranked #104 by KenPom
— USF lost its two top 100 games, by 16-18 points (URI/Va Tech)
— Bulls turned ball over 20.8% of time (#216), are shooting 56.7% on line (#311)

Cincinnati (2-2)
— Experience: #157
— Tempo: #146
— Continuity: #178
— ranked #60 by KenPom
— Bearcats split first four games (schedule #47), beating Lipscomb/Furman.
— Cincy is shooting 25% on arc so far (21-84, #291)

— Cincinnati won last 11 series games; four of last five were by 12+ points.

Memphis @ Tulane
Memphis (4-3)
— Experience: #304
— Tempo: #16
— Continuity: #35
— ranked #54 by KenPom
— Memphis is 3-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, losing by 29-17-37 points.
— Tigers aren’t shooting well: 30.4% on arc (#219), 47.5% inside arc (#202).

Tulane (4-0)
— Experience: #312
— Tempo: #267
— Continuity: #276
— ranked #211 by KenPom
— Green Wave hasn’t played any tough teams yet (schedule #311)
— Best team Tulane beat? #216 Lipscomb 68-66

— Memphis won last 10 series games; they won here in OT last year.

Butler @ Villanova
Butler (1-0)
— Experience: #179
— Tempo: #323
— Continuity: #230
— ranked #61 by KenPom
— Butler hasn’t played since November 25.
— Bulldogs beat Western Michigan 66-62 in opener (trailed with 11:11 left in game)

Villanova (5-1, 1-0)
— Experience: #120
— Tempo: #350
— Continuity: #6
— ranked #3 by KenPom
— Billikens beat LSU by 4; whacked three stiffs.
— Villanova has four top 10 0wins (schedule #31)
— Wildcats’ only loss was in OT to Virginia Tech.

— Villanova won five of last six series games.

Ole Miss @ Middle Tennessee
Ole Miss (3-0)
— Experience: #89
— Tempo: #254
— Continuity: #210
— ranked #41 by KenPom
— Rebels are giving up 59 ppg, forcing turnovers 31.5% of time.
— 4th game in seven days for Ole Miss, who’ve played schedule #300.

Middle Tennessee (2-3)
— Experience: #88
— Tempo: #53
— Continuity: #259
— ranked #192 by KenPom
— MTSU’s only D-I win is also their only top 100 game (Murray State)
— Blue Raiders have 3 losses to teams ranked #172 or lower.

— Kermit Davis coached the Blue Raiders for 16 years; they went 81-23 the last three.
— Ole Miss beat MTSU twice, by 18-18 points, since Davis moved to Oxford.

UTEP @ Arizona State
UTEP (2-2)
— Experience: #155
— Tempo: #253
— Continuity: #183
— ranked #186 by KenPom.
— UTEP lost by 12 at Saint Mary’s, by 8 at Arizona.
— Miners’ two wins are vs non-D-I teams.
— UTEP plays seven guys; two guys played 40:00 vs Saint Mary’s

Arizona State (4-2)
— Experience: #161
— Tempo: #13
— Continuity: #129
— ranked #46 by KenPom.
— Sun Devils are 3-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100; they’ve played schedule #70.
— ASU hit a buzzer beater to nip Grand Canyon 71-70 rival.
— Sun Devils are forcing turnovers 22.5% of the time (#69)

East Carolina @ SMU
East Carolina (5-0)
— Experience: #107
— Tempo: #206
— Continuity: #1
— ranked #126 by KenPom
— ECU has played an assortment of meatballs (schedule #286)
— Pirates have a road win, 66-57 at Charlotte.
— ECU has made 37.7% of its 3’s (#57)

SMU (4-0)
— Experience: #63
— Tempo: #156
— Continuity: #70
— ranked #52 by KenPom
— SMU won by a hoop at Dayton, beat three stiffs.
— Mustangs are forcing turnovers 23.8% of time (#42).

— SMU won 10 of last 11 meetings; they lost at ECU last year.

Duke @ Notre Dame
Duke (2-2)
— Experience: #317
— Tempo: #91
— Continuity: #234
— ranked #13 by KenPom
— Duke’s best player Johnson (foot) is out.
— First road trip for Duke; they lost both top 100 games, to Michigan St, Illinois.
— Duke turned ball over 21.5% of time so far (#229)

Notre Dame (2-2)
— Experience: #80
— Tempo: #244
— Continuity:#107
— ranked #75 by KenPom
— Notre Dame split first four games, vs schedule #20.
— Irish are shooting 41.6% on arc (#16); they gave up 80-90 points in their losses.

— Duke won last six series games, last four by 18+ points.

TCU @ Oklahoma State
TCU (5-2, 0-1)
— Experience: #291
— Tempo: #345
— Continuity: #109
— ranked #62 by KenPom
— TCU split four top 100 games, losing to Oklahoma/Providence.
— Horned Frogs are 2-0 on neutral floors; this is their first true road game.

Oklahoma State (4-1)
— Experience: #295
— Tempo: #62
— Continuity: #270
— ranked #44 by KenPom
— Cowboys’ six wins are vs schedule #177.
— OSU already has 3 road wins, including Marquette/Wichita State.

— Home side won last five series games.

[Udog]

653RICHMOND -654 VANDERBILT
VANDERBILT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins in the last 3 seasons.

655MASSACHUSETTS -656 LASALLE
LASALLE is 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) after 3 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

655MASSACHUSETTS -656 LASALLE
MASSACHUSETTS are 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons.

657TX-SAN ANTONIO -658 OREGON ST
OREGON ST is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite in the last 3 seasons.

659NEBRASKA-OMAHA -660 COLORADO
NEBRASKA-OMAHA is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in road games vs. winning teams over the last 2 seasons.

661TOLEDO -662 MARSHALL
TOLEDO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons.

663PITTSBURGH -664 MIAMI
MIAMI is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.

665SAN DIEGO -666 CAL POLY-SLO
SAN DIEGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals in the last 3 seasons.

669OHIO ST -670 PURDUE
PURDUE is 72-41 ATS (26.9 Units) in home games after one or more consecutive overs since 1997.

671S FLORIDA -672 CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 56-99 ATS (-52.9 Units) after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers since 1997.

673MEMPHIS -674 TULANE
TULANE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive unders in the last 3 seasons.

677BUTLER -678 VILLANOVA
VILLANOVA is 20-8 ATS (11.2 Units) after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers in the last 3 seasons.

[Udog]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Wednesday, December 16