Wednesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 12/9

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Wednesday, December 9

Good Luck on day #343 of 2020!

NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Interesting pointspreads for Week 14 games:
— Minnesota @ Tampa Bay (-6.5)
— Kansas City (-7) @ Miami
— Indianapolis (-2.5) @ Las Vegas
— NJ Jets @ Seattle (-13.5)
— Atlanta (-2.5) @ LA Chargers
— New Orleans (-7) @ Philadelphia

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 285,779
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.


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Armadillo: Wednesday's Den: Mid-week musings…….

13) Baltimore 34, Cowboys 17
— Cowboys lost six of their last seven games.
— Last ten games, Dallas is minus-14 in turnovers.
— Cowboys are 2-10 ATS this year; their three wins by total of 7 points.
— Cowboys are 0-3 on natural grass, losing by combined score of 82-29.
— Dallas is 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog, 1-4 TY.

— Baltimore ran ball for 294 yards (7.9 yards/carry)
— Lamar Jackson threw for only 107 yards, ran for 94 more.
— When Troy Aikman questions the effort of Dallas’ defense, you know it
was bad.
— Ravens allowed 17 or fewer points in six of seven wins, 26.8 ppg in losses.

12) Michigan-Ohio State football game was cancelled, supposedly because there is lot of COVID in the Michigan football program. If Ohio State doesn’t come up with another game this week, they can’t play in the Big 14 title game- you have to play six games to be eligible.

In other news, NC State cancelled their basketball game with Michigan, but the Wolverines quickly added Toledo to replace the Wolfpack. Guess Michigan’s basketball team is healthier than the football team, or Michigan just didn’t want to lose to Ohio State by 40 on national TV.

11) Kansas 73, Creighton 72:
— Down 73-70, kid on Creighton got fouled shooting a 3, but missed third foul shot.
— Kansas made 10-22 on arc; they’ve won five games in a row.
— Jayhawks have wins over Kentucky/Creighton since losing to Gonzaga.

10) Illinois 83, Duke 68:
— Illinois shot 58% from floor, Duke 40.3%.
— Big 14 leads 6-1 in their challenge with the ACC.
— Next Wednesday, Duke finally plays a road game, at Notre Dame.

9) Miami 58, Purdue 54:
— Purdue led this game 32-14 at halftime; Miami looked TERRIBLE.
— Miami held the Boilers to 22 points in second half.
— Teams combined to make 5-42 3-point shots. Oy.

8) Philadelphia Eagles made a QB switch; rookie Jalen Hurts will start for Philly Sunday when they visit the Saints in the Superdome. It will be Hurts’ first NFL start.

7) Buffalo Bills’ coach Sean McDermott came to Buffalo after being an assistant for the Carolina Panthers from 2011-16; Bills now have ten former Panthers on their roster.

6) Baseball signings:
— Royals signed 1B Carlos Santana for two years, $17M
— White Sox signed OF Adam Eaton for one year, $7M

5) White Sox also acquired P Lance Lynn from Texas, for prospect Dane Dunning and a younger minor leaguer. Lynn was 6-3, 3.32 in 13 starts for Texas LY.

4) College football trend: Last 14 Army-Navy games stayed under the total.

3) 49ers are 22-8 in Jimmy Garoppolo’s last 30 starts; they’re 5-14 in last 19 games he missed.

2) If we’re going to discuss all-time QB rankings, it has to be said that its a hell of a lot easier to play quarterback now than it was 20-30, 40 years ago. All the rules now favor the offense; if you hit a QB hard now, you’re probably getting a penalty, even if its a legal hit.

Back in the day, guys got pummeled and no one said a word; I remember Terry Bradshaw getting body-slammed by Joe (Turkey) Jones in Cleveland- lot of violent hits back then, which resulted in careers being a lot shorter.

1) NBA preseason games start Friday; apparently ESPN will be showing some of these games. Sacramento-Portland is on the docket for Friday night.

[Udog]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Wednesday, December 9

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NCAAB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, December 9

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NCAAB

Wednesday, December 9

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Trend Report
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[Udog]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, December 9

Rhode Island @ Wisconsin
Rhode Island (3-2)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 21-9 team
— picked 7th in A-14 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #72 by KenPom
— Rams are 3-2 vs schedule #46; they won last three games.
— This is URI’s fifth top 100 game; other game was vs #106 South Florida.
— Rams haven’t played in a week, since beating Seton Hall by 13.

Wisconsin (3-1)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 21-10 team
— picked 1st in Big 14 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #8 by KenPom
— Badgers beat three mid-majors by 10-34-40, lost by 2 at Marquette.
— Wisconsin is #52 in experience; they start five seniors.
— Badgers’ eFG% defense is #11 in country.

Maryland @ Clemson
Maryland (4-0)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 24-7 team
— picked 10th in Big 14 by Blue Ribbon.
— ranked #30 by KenPom
— Maryland beat Old Dominion by 18, and three stiffs.
— Terps are shooting 42.5% on arc, 62.3% inside arc; their eFG% is #1 in country.
— Maryland starts two juniors, two seniors; this is their first road game.

Clemson (3-0)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 16-15 team
— picked 8th in ACC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #27 by KenPom
— Clemson beat Miss St/Purdue, by 11 points each.
— Tigers forced turnovers 31.4% of time so far (#7).
— Clemson’s bench plays #2 minutes in country.

Providence @ TCU
Providence (3-2)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 21-11 team
— picked 6th in Pac-12 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #69 by KenPom
— Friars beat Davidson by a point and two other stiffs.
— Providence has made only 20.7% of its 3’s so far.
— Friars were 1-2 in Maui Classic, losing by 21 to Indiana, 17 to Alabama.

TCU (4-1)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 16-16 team
— picked 9th in Big X by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #61 by KenPom
— Three of TCU’s four wins are by 6 or fewer points.
— TCU is playing pace #351; very slow.
— Horned Frogs’ only loss was by 4 to Oklahoma Sunday.

Northern Iowa @ Richmond
Northern Iowa (1-3)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 25-6 team
— picked 2nd in MVC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #86 by KenPom
— UNI whipped an NAIA stiff, after losing first three games by 6-2-11 points.
— Panthers have made 44.6% of their 3’s (#14)
— This is UNI’s first true road game; they’re #244 in experience.

Richmond (3-0)
— 5 starters back from LY’s 24-7 team
— picked 1st in A-14 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #58 by KenPom
— Spiders beat Kentucky by 12, Radford by 5.
— Richmond is forcing turnovers 24.5% of time.
— Spiders outscored Wofford 12-2 over final 2:18 in Monday’s 77-72 win.

Toledo @ Michigan
Toledo (3-2)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 17-15 team
— picked 4th in MAC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #102 by KenPom
— Rockets lost to Bradley/Xavier by a combined five points.
— Toledo is shooting 40.9% on arc (#28).
— Rockets are shooting 40.9% on arc, but only 41% inside arc.

Michigan (4-0)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 19-12 team
— picked 9th in Big 14 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #16 by KenPom
— Wolverines scored 80+ points in winning each of their first four games.
— Michigan is shooting 63.6% inside arc (#7)
— Wolverines already beat two MAC teams, by 14-19 points.

Marshall @ Charleston
Marshall (2-0)
— 5 starters back from LY’s 17-14 team
— picked 4th in C-USA by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #88 by KenPom
— Marshall beat Arkansas St by 14, Wright State by 16.
— Thundering Herd is playing #6 pace in country, very fast.
— Marshall made only 23.4% (11-47) of its 3’s in first two games.

Charleston (1-2)
— 1 starter back from LY’s 17-14 team
— picked 3rd n C-USA by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #202 by KenPom
— Cougars lost to UNC by 19, Furman by 24 to start season.
— Charleston is shooting 41.7% on line (#300), 28.3% on line (#230).
— Charleston is playing #321; contrast of styles here.

Indiana @ Florida State
Indiana (3-1)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 20-12 team
— picked 8th in Big 14 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #21 by KenPom
— Indiana finished 3rd in Maui Classic, losing by 22 to Texas.
— Hoosiers have #37 eFG% defense; they beat Providence, Stanford.
— Indiana doesn’t play any seniors; they start 2 sophs, 2 juniors.

Florida State (1-0)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 26-5 team
— picked 4th in ACC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #22 by KenPom
— FSU beat #307 North Florida by 28 in its only game so far.
— Seminoles played ten guys 11:00+ in their opener.
— Last two years, FSU went 29-9 in ACC regular season games.

Georgia Tech @ Nebraska
Georgia Tech (1-2)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 17-14 team
— picked 6th in ACC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #75 by KenPom
— Tech lost to Georgia State/Mercer, beat Kentucky.
— Yellow Jackets are #5 experience team in country; 4 seniors and a junior start.
— Loss to Georgia State in their opener was in four overtimes.

Nebraska (3-1)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 23-9 team
— picked 2nd in OVC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #111 by KenPom
— Nebraska won three of four games, losing by 3 to Nevada.
— Huskers are forcing turnovers 25.9% of time (#24)
— Nebraska is playing #20 pace, but is shooting only 28.9% on arc.

Oklahoma @ Xavier
Oklahoma (2-0)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 19-12 team
— picked 6th in Big 14 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #25 by KenPom
— Sooners hammered Tex-San Antonio, won by 4 at TCU Sunday.
— Oklahoma made 23-52 3’s (44.2%) in first two games.
— Sooners starts four seniors and a junior; they’re experience team #73.

Xavier (6-0)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 19-13 team
— picked 6th in Big East by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #59 by KenPom
— Xavier is coming off of Sunday’s rivalry win over Cincinnati.
— That is only top 100 team Musketeers played so far.
— Xavier starts a frosh, a soph, three seniors.

California @ Pepperdine
California (2-3)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 14-18 team
— picked 9th in Pac-12 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #130 by KenPom
— All three of Cal’s losses are to Pac-12 teams.
— Golden Bears are turning ball over 24.7% of time (#261)
— Cal scored 63 or fewer points in all four of its D-I games.

Pepperdine (1-2)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 16-16 team
— picked 4th in WCC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #97 by KenPom
— Waves lost by 5 at San Diego State, in triple OT to UCLA.
— Pepperdine was up 16 with with 14:19 left at Pepperdine Sunday
— Waves start two seniors, two juniors; their star PG played whole 40:00 Sunday

Boise State @ BYU
Boise State (2-1)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 18-14 team
— picked 9th in ACC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #40 by KenPom
— Boise beat an NAIA team Friday, after splitting pair of D-I games.
— Broncos lost by 10 at Houston, beat Sam Houston State by 31.
— Boise starts 2 juniors, 2 seniors; they play seven guys.

BYU (5-1)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 24-8 team
— picked 2nd in WCC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #87 by KenPom
— BYU beat St John’s/Utah St by combined nine points.
— Cougars’ only loss was by 26 to USC at Mohegan Sun.
— BYU turned ball over 22.1% of time so far (#221)

San Diego @ UCLA
San Diego
— 2 starters back from LY’s 9-23 team
— picked 9th in WCC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #153 by KenPom.
— This is the Toreros’ season opener.
— San Diego has six transfers expected to play this season.
— If all the transfers are eligible, Toreros should be pretty good.

UCLA (3-1)
— 5 starters back from LY’s 19-12 team
— picked 2nd in Pac-12 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #33 by KenPom.
— UCLA lost to the Aztecs, beat Pepperdine in triple OT.
— Bruins are playing a Cronin-like pace (#342, slow)
— UCLA has a home tilt with Marquette Friday; will they look ahead?

Pittsburgh @ Northwestern
Pittsburgh (2-1)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 16-17 team
— picked 11th in ACC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #91 by KenPom
— Pitt got upset by St Francis, then beat two other stiffs.
— Panthers shot 59.4% inside arc in first three games.
— Pitt starts three sophs, two juniors; they’re experience team #276.

Northwestern (2-0)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 8-23 team
— picked 13th in Big 14 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #65 by KenPom
— Wildcats beat up on two of ten worst D-I teams in country, by 43-45.
— Northwestern starts three sophs, two juniors; they’re stepping up in class here.
— Wildcats made 25-53 on arc in first two games.

[Udog]

601CHICAGO ST -602 LOYOLA-IL
CHICAGO ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a road dog of >=30.5 in the last 3 seasons.

605RHODE ISLAND -606 WISCONSIN
WISCONSIN is 54-32 ATS (18.8 Units) in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts since 1997.

607MARYLAND -608 CLEMSON
CLEMSON is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

609PROVIDENCE -610 TCU
TCU is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots over the last 2 seasons.

611FURMAN -612 CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 2-10 ATS (-9 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 in the last 3 seasons.

613W ILLINOIS -614 MIAMI OHIO
W ILLINOIS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread in the last 3 seasons.

615N IOWA -616 RICHMOND
RICHMOND is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

617ROBERT MORRIS -618 W VIRGINIA
W VIRGINIA is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.

619MARSHALL -620 COLL OF CHARLESTON
MARSHALL is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.

621CS-BAKERSFIELD -622 ARIZONA
CS-BAKERSFIELD is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) after playing a road game in the last 3 seasons.