Announcement

**Udog** · 10-09-2020, 08:51 AM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

NFL leaders in scoring (thru four weeks):
46— Randy Bullock, Cin
45— Rodrigo Blankenship, Ind
42— Alvin Kamara, NO; Dalvin Cook, Minn
40— Mason Crosby, GB
39— Daniel Carlson, LV
38— Justin Tucker, Balt

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 212,420
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Friday's Den: Wrapping up a busy Thursday

13) Chicago 20, Tampa Bay 19:
— Tampa Bay scored 23-19 points in their losses, 31-28-38 in its wins.
— Buccaneers outgained Chicago 339-243.
— When Brady threw an incompletion on 4th down on Tampa’s last drive, he didn’t know it was 4th down. Surprising thing to see.

— Santos kicked a 38-yard FG with 1:13 left for the win.
— Chicago has won four of its first five games, their best start since 2012.  — Bears are 14-3-1 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog.

12) Atlanta 7, Miami 0: (Braves win 3-0)
— Braves have thrown four shutouts in five playoff games.
— Travis d’Arnaud had two more RBI for Atlanta, which makes the NLCS for first time since 2001.
— Excellent season for Miami, which shocked the world by making the playoffs.

11) Los Angeles 12, San Diego 3 (LA wins 3-0)
— Padres were up against it here, with Clevinger/Lamet both hurt coming in.
— Dodgers broke it open with five runs in third inning.
— Will Smith had five hits, scored three times of LA.

10) Houston 11, A’s 4 (Astros win 3-1)
— Brantley scored three runs, knocked in three more.
— Correa went 3-4 with five RBI.
— Astros are in their 4th consecutive ALCS.

9) New York 5, Tampa Bay 1 (series 2-2)
— Bronx bullpen threw five shutout innings in relief of Montgomery.
— Gleyber Torres scored two runs, knocked in two more.
— Decisive Game 5 is tonight in San Diego.

8) Sunday’s Denver-New England game was moved to 5pm Monday, first half of a Monday night twinbill with Chargers-Saints.

Buffalo-Tennessee has been moved from Sunday to 7pm Tuesday, assuming the Titans get healthier. If the Buffalo-Tennessee game is played Tuesday, then the Week 6 Bills-Chiefs game gets pushed back from Thursday night to Sunday afternoon.

7) Houston 49, Tulane 31— Not often a team playing its season opener opposes a team playing its 4th game of the year, but welcome to 2020.

Tulane scored two defensive TD’s in the first 6:00 of this game, but wound up getting run off the field by Houston’s explosive passing game.

Cougars threw for 319 yards, outgained Tulane 476-211- they had TD passes of 41, 62 yards.

6) Los Angeles Chargers showed good common sense by naming rookie Justin Herbert their starting QB going forward; the kid has played well so far, might as well let him play so he gets the needed experience and also so their fanbase gets excited and will want to buy tickets next season, in the new domed stadium.

5) This week, someone posted a video on Twitter of a Kentucky basketball practice from 2018; John Calipari tells the team that if Tyler Herro can make eight 3-pointers in a row, he’ll end that day’s practice early.   First shot, swish; he runs down to the other end, makes another. He goes end-to-end three other times, makes all eight shots, and his teammates erupt with joy.

Huge change in basketball over the last 10-15 years; skill development. The Curry/Thompson Golden State teams have shown how shooting can make teams great and make a guy rich, and guys have worked their butts off to become great shooters. Herro was a steal for Miami with the 13th pick of last year’s draft.

4) For some reason the other night, I’m sitting here at 2am with a Texas-Oklahoma football game from 1984 on TV. Keith Jackson/Frank Broyles calling a rain-soaked game, was great fun to listen to. Not much passing; shoulder pads were a lot bigger then.

3) Random movie trivia, part 1: When they filmed the movie The Blues Brothers in 1980, they wrecked 103 cars during the filming, 60 of which were police cars, at $4,000 a pop.

2) Random movie trivia, part 2: Until Thursday, I had no idea that actor Jon Voight was Angelina Jolie’s father.

1) Best wishes to Kansas football coach Les Miles, one of our favorites, who tested positive for COVID this week. Get well soon, coach.

**Udog** · 10-09-2020, 08:53 AM

NBA public betting, line movement for October 9
Patrick Everson

LeBron James and the Lakers can finish off the Heat and claim the NBA championship in Game 5 on Wednesday Night. FanDuel Sportsbook opened Los Angeles -7.5 and moved to -7.

NBA betting odds are on the board and getting action for Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Friday night, which could end with a hoisting of the championship trophy as LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers look to finish off the Miami Heat.

FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on NBA Finals opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s matchup, along with odds to win the NBA championship.

NBA line movement

The Lakers held off the Heat 102-96 in Game 4 Tuesday night to take a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven series and move to the brink of the title. FanDuel opened Los Angeles a 7.5-point favorite for Game 5 and bounced to -7 a couple of times, including late Wednesday night.

The total opened at 216.5 and spent a few hours at 217 Wednesday before dropping to 216.

NBA public betting

Early betting splits at FanDuel indicate customers at least think the Heat will cover the number in Game 5. While ticket count is two-way, with a lean toward Miami at 54 percent, 82 percent of money was on the Heat through Wednesday night.

The total is very much seeing two-way action, with 59 percent of tickets on the Over, but money split right down the middle through Wednesday.

**Udog** · 10-09-2020, 09:00 AM

709MIAMI -710 LA LAKERS
MIAMI is 16-3 ATS (12.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

NBA
Dunkel

Friday, October 9

Miami @ LA Lakers

Game 709-710
October 9, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
119.767
LA Lakers
131.616
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 12
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 7 1/2
216 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-7 1/2); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, October 9

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MIAMI (57 - 35) vs. LA LAKERS (67 - 23) - 10/9/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 49-40 ATS (+5.0 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 31-21 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LA LAKERS are 13-24 ATS (-13.4 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 5-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 8-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA

Friday, October 9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Miami @ LA Lakers
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami's last 12 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Lakers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Miami

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**Udog** · 10-09-2020, 09:05 AM

Game 5 Odds: Heat vs. Lakers
Michael Crosson

The Los Angeles Lakers reigned victorious in a closely contested Game 4 NBA Finals bout in the Orlando bubble on Tuesday night, and now LeBron James finds himself just one victory over the Miami Heat away from becoming just the third player in NBA history to secure a championship ring with three different teams.

Betting Resources

Matchup: NBA Finals Game 5
Series: Lakers lead 3-1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Friday, Oct. 9, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

LeBron James and the L.A. Lakers will look to eliminate the Miami Heat when the pair meet in Game 5 on Friday. (AP)

Line Movements

Tyler Herro broke the heart and bank of every Laker bettor with his last-second, garbage-time, 3-point bomb to secure a Miami +7.5 cover at the end of Game 4 on Tuesday night. Understandably, the oddsmakers have elected to leave the line for Friday night’s game at the same number – Los Angeles -7.

The ‘over-under’ in this series has split now 2-2 in the first four games of these NBA Finals, after combining for just 198 points in their most recent matchup. The total for Friday night’s game still sits in the same ballpark of their recent matchups – OU 216.

Spread: Los Angeles -7
Money-Line: Los Angeles -310 Miami +260
Total: 216
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -10000, Miami +2000

Game 4 Recap

The Heat got back a key player from injury in Bam Adebayo (15 points, 7 rebounds) for Game 4, and despite losing the game, Miami finally looked like the team that locked down the Eastern Conference defensively by holding the Lakers to their lowest point total in this series so far (102).

Tuesday night was all about LeBron James yet again though, as the King led Los Angeles in scoring with 28 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists on 50% shooting in the victory.

The Lakers got virtually no help from the bench in Game 4, as guys not in the starting lineup for Frank Vogel’s team shot a combined 5 for 15 in the contest. But it did not make a difference as Anthony Davis went for 22 points on 50% shooting, while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Danny Green combined for another 25 points.

Los Angeles tried to keep Miami in the game by turning the ball over 15 times and letting the Heat outshoot them 18-21 at the foul line. But Erik Spoelstra’s team just did not bring the firepower to knock off the Lakers in this one like they did in Game 3.

Lakers bettors felt confident down the stretch of Tuesday night’s contest, as LeBron and company boasted a nine-point lead with the clock winding down in Game 4. But of course, the 20-year old rookie from the University of Kentucky had to be the hero for Miami bettors, securing the backdoor cover on the final shot of the contest.

Covering the spread will not be enough for the Heat on Sunday night though, as one more Lakers victory will give them their first title since 2010.

Game 4 Betting Results

Outcome: Lakers 106 Heat 96

While Herro gave Heat backers a nice win on side wagers, the 'under' was never in doubt and it cashed across the board. The 'under' is now 3-1 in the first four games of the finals

Game: Lakers Win, Heat Cover (+7.5), Under 218.5
First Quarter: Lakers Win (27-22), Lakers Cover (-3), Under 56.5
First-Half: Lakers Win (49-47), Heat Cover (+5), Under 112.5
Second-Half: Lakers Win (53-49), Heat Cover (+4), Under 107

Miami Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 16-11 SU, 18-9 ATS, 13-11-1 O/U
Playoffs: 13-6 SU, 15-4 ATS, 9-10 O/U

Even though they lost the game, Tuesday night’s contest should have been the most encouraging contest of this series so far for Heat fans, as the Miami defense really seemed to gel with Bam back in the lineup.

The results were not necessarily encouraging for the immediate future, as Miami is currently staring down the barrel of a 3-1 deficit. But Tuesday night showed that this young, Heat core has the foundation to defend and compete with dynamic, star-filled rosters like the Lakers, when healthy.

The Heat have had their greatest success against Los Angeles when they play through Butler and let him take 20+ shots per game, which is a tough strategy against a team wielding defensive firepower like the Lakers. Miami is clearly still one piece away. But it has still been one heck of a ride in the bubble for this dark-horse Miami squad.

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 18-9 SU, 11-15-1 ATS, 12-15 O/U
Playoffs: 15-4 SU, 10-8-1 ATS, 8-11 O/U

It feels obnoxious saying that AD has been a letdown in his last two NBA Finals contests for Los Angeles, averaging over 18 points per game, but that really is an underwhelming feat for the Lakers’ superstar big man.

Davis is shooting the ball fine over this stretch (50%+ in last 2 games), it just seems like the Lakers are strategizing away from the big man in this series, as AD draws Adebayo on a large percentage of his square-up opportunities.

King James currently sits as a -450 favorite to win Finals MVP after back-to-back slow performances from Davis. Looking forward to another emotional MVP speech from ‘the chosen one’ following the conclusion of this series.

Fun Fact

The last time the Lakers won a title, they knocked off Rajon Rondo and the “Big 3” Boston Celtics in 7 games back in the 2010 NBA Finals.

Ten years later, the four-time All-Star still comes off the bench for the Lakers, searching for his second title and contributing quality minutes at the guard position for a team that desperately needs it. If Los Angeles is able beat Miami one more time in this series, his second championship ring is undoubtedly well earned.)

Key Injuries

Los Angeles

None

Miami

PG Goran Dragic: Foot - Doubtful

Dragic suffered a fascia tear in his foot during Game 1 of these NBA Finals, and has not been able to get back on the floor since. Prior to Game 4, Dragic tried to warm-up with his team and go through a pre-game routine, but it was evident he was still dealing with some serious discomfort in his left foot.

The veteran point-guard is listed as 'doubtful' for Friday night’s tilt. I do not expect him to suit up for the remainder of this series – but you never know. Goran is a tough guy.

Kendrick Nunn is slated to fill Miami’s gap in the rotation for Game 5. Surprisingly, this move did not leave too big of a scar on the Heat’s offensive production during the first few meetings of Dragic’s absence, but they are now beginning to feel the loss of their point-guard as 2020 Rookie of the Year Runner-up scored just six points on 2 of 11 field goal attempts on Tuesday night.

**Udog** · 10-09-2020, 01:14 PM

Satch,

If your Pbluemarlin email is still active, check it.

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Friday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 10/9

Friday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 10/9

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