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**Udog** · 10-06-2020, 09:52 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Payrolls of the eight baseball teams still playing:
— New York $249,788,488
— Los Angeles $222,115,000
— Houston $214,090,057
— Atlanta $158,026,375
— San Diego $151,453,350
— Oakland $95,455,433
— Miami $73,114,200
— Tampa Bay $72,489,233

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 210,013
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Tuesday's Den: Nobody asked me, but……

13) Kansas City 26, Patriots 10:
— New England travelled to Kansas City Monday morning, played their #2-3 QB’s.
— Patriots had two empty trips to red zone; QB Hoyer was then replaced by Stidham.
— New England ran ball for 185 yards, but turned it over four times.

— KC won its first four games, scoring 29.3 ppg- they’re first team EVER to start out 4-0 four years in a row.
— Chiefs gave up 526 YR the last three weeks, 175.3/game.
— KC is 19-10 ATS in its last 29 games as a home favorite.

12) Green Bay 30, Falcons 16:
— Falcons are 0-4; they led one game 26-10 with 7:00 left, led 29-10 at halftime in another game. Coach’s job has to be in jeopardy.
— Atlanta has been outscored 84-46 in second half of games.
— Home side won last seven series games.

— Green Bay won its first four games, scoring 43-42-37-30 points.
— Three of four Packer games went over the total.
— Packers covered eight of last 11 games as a home favorite.

11) Houston Texans fired coach Bill O’Brien after their 0-4 start; Romeo Crennel is the interim coach. O’Brien had a 52-48 regular season record, with five winning seasons out of seven, but there has long been a power struggle within the Texans about personnel control, so the trade of DeAndre Hopkins, and subsequent 0-4 start, sealed O’Brien’s fate.

10) Dallas Cowboys’ defense has allowed 15 TD’s on their opponents’ last 37 drives- that’s not good. On the bright side, Dak Prescott is the first NFL player ever to pass for 450+ yards three games in a row.

9) Can’t remember an NFL game where both teams had 30+ first downs; Cleveland had 33, Dallas 35 in the Browns’ 49-38 win Sunday.

8) Only two players ever have won an NBA championship with three different teams; Robert Horry, John Salley. Lebron James would become the third if the Lakers win this year.

7) Word of the Day: quisling

According to the Oxford Dictionary, a quisling is “a traitor who collaborates with an enemy force occupying their country.”

The word originated in Norway, where a guy named Vidkun Quisling was a Norwegian military officer, politician, and Nazi collaborator in the 1930’s.

6) Not often a football team runs the ball for 300+ yards, let alone 400+; Kentucky ran it for 407 yards in their 42-41 overtime loss to Ole Miss Saturday.

On Signing Day next February, when college teams are announcing their new recruits, Ole Miss better have signed a hell of a lot of kids who play defense- they need ‘em.

5) In 2007, Michigan State’s football team had three QB’s on its roster who started NFL games this weekend: Brian Hoyer, Kirk Cousins, Nick Foles.

4) Before Saturday, the last time Oklahoma lost a football game at Iowa State was 1960, a couple months before my first birthday.

3) Baseball happenings over the last few days:
— Phillies demoted GM Matt Klentak, after the team spent a boatload of $$$ the last few years but never made the playoffs. Philly had the worst bullpen in the majors this year and they failed to re-sign free agent-to-be C JP Realmuto.
— Angels told GM Billy Eppler to take a hike; in five years under Eppler’s watch, the Halos went a combined 332-376 (.469), with no winning seasons, even though the Angels have the best player in baseball on their team. Pitching still matters.
— Washington Nationals fired their pitching coach, who was surprised by the move.

2) Houston 10, A’s 5:
— Tide turned when Houston scored four unearned runs in top of the 6th.
— Alex Bregman has homered in a playoff game on October 5 four years in a row.
— Weird watching an A’s-Astros game and seeing batboys wearing Dodger uniforms.

1) New York 9, Tampa Bay 3:
— Cole went six innings, got his first win in eight career starts vs Tampa Bay.
— New York scored 31 runs in its first three playoff games.
— Stanton hit a grand slam in the ninth inning.

**Udog** · 10-06-2020, 09:53 AM

NBA public betting, line movement for October 6
Patrick Everson

Jimmy Butler and the Heat hope to fully climb back into the NBA Finals in Tuesday night's Game 4 against LeBron James and the Lakers. FanDuel opened Los Angeles a 7.5-point favorite.

NBA betting odds are on the board for Game 4 of the NBA Finals, set for Tuesday night. Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat look to knot up the best-of-7 series against LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers.

FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on NBA Finals opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Tuesday’s matchup, along with odds to win the NBA championship. Covers will update this action report with NBA sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement up until game time.

NBA line movement

The Heat lost Games 1 and 2 by double digits, then climbed back into the series with a double-digit win of their own, beating the Lakers 115-104 in Game 3 Sunday. Still, Los Angeles opened a 7.5-point favorite for Game 4, and the line stuck there at FanDuel through Monday night for this 9 p.m. ET Tuesday clash.

FanDuel opened the total at 219.5 and dipped to 218.5 Monday evening.

NBA public betting

The public, per usual, is on the Lakers at FanDuel, with 71 percent of early tickets and 87 percent of early money taking Los Angeles. And although the total dialed down a point, there’s similar consensus on the Over, which is attracting 79 percent of tickets/84 percent of money.

**Udog** · 10-06-2020, 09:57 AM

707LA LAKERS -708 MIAMI
MIAMI is 28-9 ATS (18.1 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 6

LA Lakers @ Miami

Game 707-708
October 6, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
131.097
Miami
120.286
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 11
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 7 1/2
219 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-7 1/2); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA LAKERS (66 - 23) vs. MIAMI (57 - 34) - 10/6/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
MIAMI is 48-40 ATS (+4.0 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 30-21 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MIAMI is 20-38 ATS (-21.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 7-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Tuesday, October 6

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Trend Report
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LA Lakers @ Miami
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami
LA Lakers is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home
Miami is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games

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**Udog** · 10-06-2020, 09:59 AM

Game 4 Odds: Lakers vs. Heat
Michael Crosson

The Miami Heat nabbed their first win of the NBA Finals with an impressive 115-104 victory on Sunday night – undeniably carried on the back of Jimmy Butler.

Miami still has a boatload of work to do heading into Game 4 though, still needing three victories in their next four games against a star-packed Los Angeles Lakers squad if they want to become the first team to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy following a run in the Disney World Bubble.

Betting Resources

Matchup: NBA Finals Game 4
Series: Lakers lead 2-1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat will look to avoid a 3-0 deficit when the meet the L.A. Lakers on Sunday. (AP)

Line Movements

Miami shut everybody up for the moment with a triumphant victory in Game 3, but the oddsmakers are not batting an eye after the Laker loss on Sunday night – rolling out the same opening line of Los Angeles -7.5 for Game 4.

Miami and Los Angeles combined for 219 points in Game 3, and depending on ‘when’ and ‘where’ your bet was placed, there is a chance you could have had a winning ticket regardless of whether you bet the ‘over’ or ‘under,’ as the total for Game 3 opened at OU 217.5 and closed at OU 220.

The ‘over-under’ for Tuesday night’s contest has been intelligently placed at the same number of points these teams combined for in their most recent affair – OU 219.5

Spread: Los Angeles -7.5
Money-Line: Los Angeles -325 Miami +270
Total: 219.5
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -1100, Miami +700

Game 3 Recap

Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic both did not suit up for the Heat in Game 3, but it did not make a difference anyhow, as Sunday night was all about a Miami lineup led by none other than Mr. Jimmy Buckets.

Butler had one of the most impressive nights in NBA postseason history in Miami’s 115-104 win on Sunday night, recording just the third ever 40-point triple double in a Finals contest, and did it on 70% shooting, without attempting a single 3-pointer. He also recorded two blocks and two steals at the other end of the floor.

The Lakers’ starters were miserable from 3-point land in Game 3, going a combined 3 for 14 from beyond the arc in their first loss of these Finals. Unexpected bright spots came in the form of Markieff Morris and Kyle Kuzma on Sunday night though, as the duo provided 38 points and 9 rebounds off the bench to keep Frank Vogel’s team alive over the course of this one.

Los Angeles will undoubtedly need more out of their superstars in Game 4 if Butler plans on continuing the rampage he started on Sunday night.

Game 3 Betting Results

Outcome: Heat 115 Lakers 104

Miami came to play on Sunday and bettors backing the Heat were able to connect in the first quarter and both halves, with each decision never in doubt.

While the underdog was the right side, the same can't be said for total wagers. After a slow start, the offensive units picked up the pace in the second and third quarter yet the 'under' still managed to connect. Some bettors may have been able to connect on a middle too as the game opened 218 and closed at 220.

Game: Heat Win, Heat Cover (+9.5), Under 220
First Quarter: Heat Win (26-23), Heat Cover (+2.5), Under 55
First-Half: Heat Win (58-54), Heat Cover (+4.5), Over 109
Second-Half: Heat Win (57-50), Heat Cover (+7.5), Under 108

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 17-9 SU, 11-14-1 ATS, 12-14 O/U
Playoffs: 14-4 SU, 10-7-1 ATS, 8-10 O/U

I am not sure if the Lakers’ superstars just wanted to give the Heat their ceremonial victory lap for winning the Eastern Conference in Game 3 or what, but Los Angeles lacked all signs of a killer-instinct on Sunday night, and appeared to be content letting Miami walk all over them once they fell behind in this game.

Adebayo did not suit up for Miami in Sunday’s contest, which means Anthony Davis was drawing the Kelly Olynyk matchup for large chunks of this game, and the Brow managed to convert just six of nine shot attempts.

The strategy for the Lakers on Tuesday night needs to be plain and simple. Get AD going early on – he needs to shoot the ball more. Bam is likely not going to suit up again. Davis has no excuse for dodging the spotlight in Game 4 after a relatively pedestrian performance last time out.

Miami Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 16-10 SU, 17-9 ATS, 13-12-1 O/U
Playoffs: 13-5 SU, 14-4 ATS, 9-9 O/U

Miami is now receiving a bit of love from Vegas heading into Game 4, being trimmed from a +1600 underdog, now down to just a +600 underdog following a victory on Sunday night without two of its crucial players.

I guess the only good thing about Bam and Goran being out is that there are more shots available for Butler, as the All-Star led the contest with 20 field goal attempts.

The Lakers are notorious for struggling to defend guards off the dribble and Jimmy exposed them in Game 3 by dropping 40 without taking a single 3-point attempt. He will look to utilize that part of his game again for his team on Tuesday night.

Key Injuries

Los Angeles

None

Miami

PF Bam Adebayo: Neck - Questionable
PG Goran Dragic: Foot - Doubtful

Adebayo said he feels good and wanted to suit up heading into Game 3, but the reports coming out of the bubble continue to be pessimistic regarding his, and Dragic’s statuses for the remainder of this series.

Leading up to tipoff on Sunday night, both players received “doubtful” tags which ultimately led to neither of the guys suiting up. Keep an eye out for any injury report upgrades before the contest, but I would not bank on either of them playing in Game 4.

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Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 10/6

Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 10/6

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