Announcement

**Udog** · 10-04-2020, 08:49 AM

Courtesy is the one coin you can never have too much of or be stingy with.

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

NFL leaders in passing yardage:
1,188— Dak Prescott, Dal
1,038— Josh Allen, Buff
961— Matt Ryan, Atl
925— Russell Wilson, Sea
898— Patrick Mahomes, KC
887— Aaron Rodgers, GB

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 208,025
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

**********

Armadillo: Sunday's Den: Wrapping up a college football Saturday

13) New England QB Cam Newton tested positive for COVID; Sunday’s game with the Chiefs has been postponed, without a new date being set. One of the Chiefs’ backup QB’s has apparently also tested positive.

12) There is talk that the NFL may push back the start of their playoffs by a week, eliminate the extra week between conference title games and the Super Bowl to create a Week 18 in the regular season which would become a parking lot for some of these postponed games.

11) Iowa State 37, Oklahoma 30:
— Sooners lose consecutive regular season games for first time since 1999.
— Oklahoma scored 65 points in its two D-I games, but allowed 38-37 points.
— Cyclones lost at home to Louisiana, then beat TCU/Oklahoma. Go figure.

10) Arkansas 21, Mississippi State 14:
— MSU QB Costello threw for 623 yards last week; he threw three INT’s here, including a pick-6, as Arkansas ended their 20-game SEC losing streak.

9) Ole Miss 42, Kentucky 41 (OT)
— Very fun game to watch; Kentucky’s kicker missed a PAT in overtime.
— Ole Miss QB Corral threw for 320 yards, ran for 51 more.
— Kentucky led this game 28-14 with 10:00 left in third quarter.

8) Tennessee 35, Missouri 12:
— Volunteers have now won eight games in a row, dating back to last year.

7) Upsets of the Day:
— Tulsa (+20.5) 34, Central Florida 26
— Arkansas (+17) 21, Mississippi State 14
— NC State (+14) 30, Pittsburgh 29
— TCU (+10.5) 33, Texas 31
— Iowa State (+7.5) 37, Oklahoma 30
— Air Force (+7) 40, Navy 7
— Ole Miss (+7) 42, Kentucky 41

6) TCU 33, Texas 31:
— Longhorns fumbled on the TCU 1-yard line with 2:44 left.
— Total yardage was 457-388, TCU
— Penalties: TCU 14-109, Texas 12-92

5) West Virginia 27, Baylor 21 OT:
— WVU survived four turnovers (-2), held Baylor 256 total yards.
— Bears lost their fifth straight visit to Morgantown.

4) Virginia Tech 38, Duke 31:
— Tech ran ball for 324 yards, keeping their depleted defense off the field.
— Hokies were missing their top 8 DB’s, their defensive coordinator, their DB’s coach and 13 other players.

3) NC State 30, Pittsburgh 29:
— Teams combined for 747 passing yards, no turnovers.
— Wolfpack scored the winning TD with 0:23 left.

2) SMU 30, Memphis 27:
— Both teams gained over 500 yards, converted over half their 3rd downs.
— Mustangs threw TD passes of 70-85 yards.
— AAC football is underrated; lot of fun teams to watch.

1) American League playoffs start Monday, in LA/San Diego. National League series start /Tuesday, in Arlington/Houston.

**Udog** · 10-04-2020, 08:52 AM

NBA public betting, line movement for October 4
Patrick Everson

LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers shifted to 8.5-point favorites for Game 3 of the NBA Finals after opening -10 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

NBA betting odds are on the board for Game 3 of the NBA Finals, set for Sunday night. The Los Angeles Lakers are already up 2-0 in the best-of-7 series, so the Miami Heat are pretty much in must-win mode.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on NBA Finals opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday’s matchup, along with odds to win the NBA championship.

NBA line movement

The Lakers led Game 2 by 14 at halftime and kept the at arm’s length the rest of the way in a 124-114 victory. FanDuel Sportsbook followed by making Los Angeles a 10-point favorite, but that line shifted to -8.5 by Saturday afternoon.

After missing Game 2, Heat forward Bam Adebayo (shoulder) expects to be back for the 7:30 p.m. ET tipoff, likely contributing to a little more optimism from Miami backers. Goran Dragic missed Game 2 with a foot injury, and his status is uncertain for Game 3.

NBA public betting

Game 3 is drawing two-way action at FanDuel, with the Lakers getting 53 percent of tickets and the Heat taking 56 percent of money through Saturday afternoon. The total remained at the opener of 218.5, even though FanDuel was seeing 84 percent of bets and 93 percent of money on the Over.

**Udog** · 10-04-2020, 08:56 AM

705LA LAKERS -706 MIAMI
LA LAKERS are 42-25 ATS (14.5 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the last 3 seasons.

NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, October 4

LA Lakers @ Miami

Game 705-706
October 4, 2020 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
127.244
Miami
124.139
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 3
215
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 9 1/2
218 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+9 1/2); Under

NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA LAKERS (66 - 22) vs. MIAMI (56 - 34) - 10/4/2020, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 40-32 ATS (+4.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MIAMI is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 4-3 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 7-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA

Sunday, October 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA Lakers @ Miami
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
LA Lakers is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-04-2020, 09:00 AM

Game 3 Odds: Lakers vs. Heat
Michael Crosson

Following an impressive 124-114 victory in Game 2 on Friday evening to earn his first 2-0 lead in 10 NBA Finals appearances, LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers will look to gain a three-game advantage against the Miami Heat in the bubble on Sunday night.

Betting Resources

Matchup: NBA Finals Game 3
Series: Lakers lead 2-0
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2020
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat will look to avoid a 3-0 deficit when the meet the L.A. Lakers on Sunday. (AP)

Line Movements

The Lakers have now won the first two games of this series by double digits, but the oddsmakers in Las Vegas are projecting Frank Vogel’s team to come up just short of that mark on Sunday evening – setting the spread for Game 3 at Los Angeles -8.5.

‘Over’ tickets cashed in a big way in Game 2, as Los Angeles and Miami combined for 238 points on Sunday night. The oddsmakers have elected to stick to their guns with the ‘over-under’ though – leaving the line at OU 218.5.

Spread: Los Angeles -8.5
Money-Line: Los Angeles -380 Miami +320
Total: 218.5
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -6000, Miami +1600

Game 2 Recap

The odds were stacked against Erik Spoelstra’s team from the jump on Sunday night, as Miami’s Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo were both sidelined due to injuries suffered during Game 1.

Even with Bam out of the lineup, the Heat appeared content sitting back in a 2-3 zone and allowing Los Angeles to fire as many longballs off as they pleased in this contest, and the Lakers took what they were given – LAL putting up 47 3-point attempts, compared to Miami’s 27.

Adebayo was also clearly missed in the rebounding department in Miami’s last contest, as the Lakers finished +10 on the offensive boards.

King James and Anthony Davis were both spectacular for a second straight NBA Finals victory for Los Angeles, combining for 65 of their team’s 124 points.

The Lakers appear to be firing on all cylinders right now after winning and covering in back-to-back Finals matchups. They will look to keep it going on Sunday night.

Game 2 Betting Results

Outcome: Lakers 124 Heat 114

The Lakers jumped out to a big lead at halftime but the Heat hung around with a big third quarter and managed to cover as double-digit underdogs.

The offensive units only combined for 52 points in the first quarter but the pair got the 'over' on track for an easy win with 70 and 74 points in the second and third quarter respectively.

Game: Lakers Win, Heat Cover (-10.5), Over 216.5
First Quarter: Lakers Win (29-23), Lakers Cover (-2), Under 54.5
First-Half: Lakers Win (68-54), Lakers Cover (-6), Over 112
Second-Half: Heat Win (60-56), Heat Cover (+1.5), Over 109

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 17-8 SU, 11-13-1 ATS, 12-13 O/U
Playoffs: 14-3 SU, 10-6-1 ATS, 8-9 O/U

Los Angeles’ willingness to shoot the longball against Miami’s zone defense has been incredible as they continue to shatter Lakers post-season franchise records for 3-point shot attempts by jacking up 38 more shots from long-range on Friday night.

King James was just short of a triple-double yet again in Game 2, tallying 33 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists in the Laker victory – landing himself as the current Finals MVP favorite at -200 odds. AD is right there behind him though (+140), after sporting his second straight 30-point outing on Friday to begin his NBA Finals career.

Los Angeles will look to make it a perfect 3-0 in these NBA Finals on Sunday evening.

Miami Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 15-10 SU, 16-9 ATS, 13-11-1 O/U
Playoffs: 12-5 SU, 13-4 ATS, 9-8 O/U

The Heat entered this series as hefty underdogs (+300), and things are only getting worse for them as they continue to lose games while nursing their injury woes – currently sitting at +1600 to rally back from a two-game deficit.

The biggest thing for Miami right now is health if they want to compete in this series. Even with Dragic and Adebayo in the lineup, the odds of the Heat knocking off LeBron and company in these finals were slim to none.

Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro also need to get it going from downtown in this series if the Heat want to swing the momentum back in their direction in Game 3 – the duo is shooting a combined 5 for 21 from three-point land in the series.

Key Injuries

Los Angeles

None

Miami

PF Bam Adebayo: Neck - Questionable
PG Goran Dragic: Foot - Doubtful

Dragic’s status for Game 3 remains foggy, but Adebayo says that he feels good and expects to be in the lineup for the Heat on Sunday night. If Miami wants to make these NBA Finals look like a closely contested series in the slightest, it is critical that Bam is healthy and in the lineup for the Heat. Keep an eye on his status as tipoff approaches.

Announcement

Sunday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 10/4

Sunday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 10/4

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment