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**Udog** · 10-02-2020, 09:06 AM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Odds to win the college hoop national title next April:
10-1— Gonzaga
12-1— Baylor
14-1— Villanova
16-1— Kentucky
18-1— Virginia
20-1— Duke, Texas Tech

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 206,005
Please wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Friday's Den: Wrapping up a busy Thursday

13) From James Logan: This week’s NFL games come with an average over/under of 49.9 points; since 2006, that would be the highest average over/under for any NFL weekend.
48.7- Week 11, 2018
48.2- Week 3, 2020
48.0- Week 10, 2018
47.8- Week 8, 2018
47.7- Week 9, 2018
47.3- Week 5, 2018
47.3- Week 7, 2018
47.1- Week 13, 2018
46.9- Week 11, 2014
46.8- Week 2, 2019

Ironic thing is that in those ten weeks, under wound up going 85-59-1 (59%)

12) Penalties per game are down about 1.5 flags per game over the previous four years; holding calls are down roughly 40%. Another reason for more scoring, higher totals.

11) Reader named Greg sent me this stat Thursday morning: over last 33 NFL games, if you bet first half totals, over is now 26-7, 16-1 in the last 17 games played.

Good weather is part of it, but is it easier to run an offense with no crowd noise? Fair question.

10) A’s 6, White Sox 4 (Oakland wins series 2-1)
— 17 pitchers were used in this game; none of them got more than six outs.
— Chicago led 3-0 after third inning.
— A’s win their first playoff series since 2006.
— For season, White Sox wound up 15-0 vs lefty starters, 23-27 vs righties.
— Tim Anderson had nine hits in three games for Chicago.

9) Braves 5, Reds 0 (Atlanta wins series 2-0):
— Cincinnati scored zero runs in 22 innings in this series. Zero. None. Bupkis.
— Rookie Anderson threw six shutout innings for Atlanta.
— Ozuna, Duvall both homered in a 4-run 8th inning.

8) Padres 11, Cardinals 9 (series 1-1):
— St Louis led 4-2 after five innings, before the Padres’ bats exploded.
— Fernando Tatis homered twice, knocked in five runs.
— 17 pitchers were used in this game, too.

7) Dodgers 3, Brewers 0 (LA wins series 2-0)
— Kershaw threw eight shutout innings, struck out 13.
— Milwaukee had a guy picked off first when they were down 3-0 in 8th inning; no bueno.
— At no point this season were the Brewers ever over .500.

6) Sunday’s Steeler-Titans game was postponed until later this season, after more Tennessee players tested positive for COVID.

5) Marlins’ OF Starling Marte broke his pinkie Wednesday; he can still pinch-run or play the field, but he can’t swing a bat for a while.

4) Philadelphia 76ers acted quickly, named Doc Rivers their new head coach.

3) Week or so ago, New York catcher Gary Sanchez was called for catcher’s interference three times in a 5-game stretch; he is the first major league catcher to do that since Vic Roznovsky of the Cubs, on September 28-29, 1965.

2) Philadelphia Eagles have been outscored 49-16 in second half of games this year.

1) Denver 37, NJ Jets 28:
— McManus drilled a 52-yard FG with 3:08 left for the win.
— Rookie QB Rypien was 19-31/242 in his first NFL start, but he did throw three INT’s.
— AFC West teams are 7-3-1 ATS outside their division.

— Jets had six personal fouls in this game, four in the first half.
— Jets lost their first four games, allowing 32.5 ppg.
— Jets are 6-11-1 ATS in their last 18 home games.

**Udog** · 10-02-2020, 09:09 AM

NBA public betting, line movement for October 2
Patrick Everson

LeBron James and Co. breezed to a 116-98 victory laying 4.5 points in Game 1. FanDuel Sportsbook opened them at -7 for Game 2, which rose quickly to -9.5 amid Miami injury concerns.

NBA betting odds are on the board for Game 2 of the NBA Finals, set for Friday night. The Los Angeles Lakers look to pick up where they left off in Wednesday’s Game 1, aiming to take firm control of this championship series against the Miami Heat.

FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on NBA Finals opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s matchup, along with odds to win the NBA championship.

NBA line movement

Miami entered Game 1 with a 12-3 SU and ATS record in this year’s playoffs, then sprinted out to an early double-digit lead in the opener against Los Angeles. But it was all Lakers the rest of the way, as LeBron James and Co. breezed to a 116-98 victory laying 4.5 points.

That led FanDuel to install Los Angeles as 7-point favorites for Game 2, and the line was already up to Lakers -9.5 by Thursday afternoon. Part of that is surely bettors’ reaction to Game 1, but the Heat are also banged up: Goran Dragic (foot) is doubtful for Game 2, while Jimmy Butler (ankle) and Bam Adebayo (shoulder) are questionable.

The total opened at 216 and moved to 216.5 Thursday afternoon.

NBA public betting

Bettors were buying the Lakers early and often at FanDuel, with 84 percent of tickets and 95 percent of dollars wagered landing on Los Angeles, through Thursday afternoon. On the total, ticket count is two-way, with the Over at 54 percent, but money is running 81 percent on the Over.

**Udog** · 10-02-2020, 09:13 AM

703MIAMI -704 LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 42-25 ATS (14.5 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the last 3 seasons.

NBA
Dunkel

Friday, October 2

Miami @ LA Lakers

Game 703-704
October 2, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
124.750
LA Lakers
126.632
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 2
213
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 7 1/2
216
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+7 1/2); Under

NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, October 2

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MIAMI (56 - 33) vs. LA LAKERS (65 - 22) - 10/2/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
LA LAKERS are 40-32 ATS (+4.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MIAMI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 4-3 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 6-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Friday, October 2

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Trend Report
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Miami @ LA Lakers
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami's last 11 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing LA Lakers
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami

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**Udog** · 10-02-2020, 09:27 AM

Game 2 Odds: Heat vs. Lakers
Michael Crosson

Now just three wins away from securing his first ever championship ring, Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Lakers will square off for Game 2 of the NBA Finals against Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat at the HP Field House in Disney’s Wide World of Sports complex in Orlando.

Betting Resources

Matchup: NBA Finals Game 2
Series: Lakers lead 1-0
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Friday, Oct. 2, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

The Lakers blasted the Heat 116-98 in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, dominating the game in wire-to-wire fashion. (AP)

Line Movements

Following their 116-98 rout of Eric Spoelstra’s team in Game 1, the Lakers are getting a slight bump on the spread heading into the second contest of this series – setting the line for Friday night’s tilt at Los Angeles -7.5.

‘Under’ bettors were the victors in the first game of these NBA Finals as Miami and Los Angeles combined for just 214 points on Wednesday night. The ‘over-under’ for Game 2 sits in the same ballpark as Game 1’s final total – OU 216.

Spread: Los Angeles -8
Money-Line: Los Angeles -360 Miami +285
Total: 216
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -1200, Miami +750

Game 1 Recap

The Heat jumped out to an early lead in the opening stanza of Wednesday night’s contest, but that was short lived as the Lakers were able to secure a 31-28 lead before the final horn of the period, and never looked back.

The first game of these Finals was pretty much over at halftime, as the Lakers set a franchise record for most 3-point field goals made in the first half of a post-season contest by drilling 11 longballs in the opening two stanzas of Wednesday’s matchup, and gained a 65-48 lead at the break.

Miami started the game sitting back in a 2-3 zone similarly to how they prepared for Boston, daring Los Angeles to beat them from deep, but Frank Vogel’s team executed a drive-and-kick game plan flawlessly in Game 1 as his team scored a combined 70 points on Wednesday night from strictly 3-point land and the foul line.

Bam Adebayo was expected to give Davis some trouble down low on the defensive side of the ball, but that was far from the case in Game 1, as Bam exited the game with a neck injury, leaving Davis to dominate the contest with 34 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 blocks over 38 minutes in the Lakers’ win.

Game 1 Betting Results

Outcome: Lakers 116 Heat 98

After watching the Heat jump out to a 28-18 first quarter lead on the Lakers with three minutes remaining, Los Angeles closed on a 13-0 run and that effort not only helped the "Purple and Gold" carry the momentum into the final three quarters.

The Lakers covered for bettors in the first quarter, first-half and the game, plus they picked up a second-half ticket as a short 'dog too. The Heat's inabilty to score in the second and third quarters (39 combined points) hurt bettors who took the 'over' in the first-half and the second-half too.

Game: Lakers Win, Lakers Cover (-4.5), Under 217.5
First Quarter: Lakers Win (31-28), Lakers Cover (-2), Over 56
First-Half: Lakers Win (63-48), Lakers Cover (-3), Under 111.5
Second-Half: Lakers Win (51-50), Lakers Cover (+2.5), Under 105.5

Miami Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 15-9 SU, 15-9 ATS, 12-11-1 O/U
Playoffs: 12-4 SU, 12-4 ATS, 8-8 O/U

Miami got blown out in the first game of this series, but if you have paid attention to the Heat this season, then you know this is one of the most resilient bunches in the NBA and they are going to come back re-energized, with a brand new scheme to attack the Lakers with on Friday night.

The Heat will likely be without Adebayo in this game, so even if the zone concept worked in Game 1, they would likely have to switch up their defensive strategy after losing the heartbeat of their defense.

Although his team did not show up, Jimmy Buckets was still great for the Heat on Wednesday night – Butler going for 23 points and 5 assists on 61% shooting for the game. He may need to take matters into his own hands in Game 2 considering the names listed on Friday’s injury report if Miami wants a chance at evening up this series.

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 16-8 SU, 11-12-1 ATS, 11-13 O/U
Playoffs: 13-3 SU, 10-5-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U

Following Los Angeles’ blowout victory in Game 1 of these NBA Finals, the oddsmakers have shifted the Lakers from -380 favorites, to -1200 favorites heading into the second game of this series.

The Lakers are typically streaky from deep and they still were in this contest, but it was plenty to knock off the Heat in this game once they became ravaged by injury in the early goings of this one.

LeBron James nearly recorded another triple-double to open this year’s Finals by tallying 25 points, 13 rebounds, and 9 assists across 36 minutes in Game 1.

Los Angeles is now 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games and will look to keep that pace going with another win on Friday night.

Key Injuries

Miami

PG Goran Dragic: Foot - Doubtful
PF Bam Adebayo: Shoulder - Doubtful
PF Jimmy Butler: Ankle - Probable

Los Angeles

None

Along with Adebayo’s potential absence, Goran Dragic is listed as a game time decision as well with torn plantar fascia in his last foot. The diagnosis does not necessarily rule him 'out' for Game 2, but the injury commonly gives players discomfort on the court and is something to take note of if the guard suits up on Friday night.

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Friday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 10/2

Friday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 10/2

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