Announcement

**Udog** · 09-30-2020, 09:02 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Six interesting spreads for Week 4 NFL games:
— Chargers @ Tampa Bay (-7)
— Ravens (-13) @ Washington
— NJ Giants @ LA Rams (-13)
— New England @ Kansas City (-7)
— Buffalo (-3) @ Las Vegas
— Philadelphia @ San Francisco (-7)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 205,268
Please wear a mask when you go out.

**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's Den: Mid-week musings……..

13) Tennessee Titans had three players, five staff members test positive for COVID; they shut down their facility until Saturday. Minnesota Vikings also shut down their facility until their contact tracing is finished, since they hosted the Titans Sunday. No word yet if this changes this weekend’s schedule at all.

12) NFL teams with the most plays of 20+ yards this season:
19— Buffalo
18— LA Rams
17— Dallas
16— Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota

11) NFL teams with the fewest plays of 20+ yards this season:
6— Cincinnati
7— NJ Jets
8— Carolina
9— NJ Giants, New Orleans, Miami, Tennessee

10) NFL defenses that have allowed the fewest plays of 20+ yards this year:
8— Tampa Bay
9— Jacksonville, LA Rams, LA Chargers
10— Kansas City, NJ Giants

9) NFL defenses that allowed the most plays of 20+ yards this year:
18— Atlanta
15— Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota
14— Detroit, Seattle, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Baltimore

8) Lamar Jackson has started 27 NFL games; the team leading at halftime won every game. Ravens trailed six of those games at the half.

7) Denver Broncos will start their 3rd different QB in four weeks Thursday, when Brett Rypien gets his first NFL start against the Jets in Swamp Stadium.

6) Cincinnati Reds are first major league team EVER to have more walks than singles over the course of a season; Reds walked 239 times, had 221 singles. Granted it was a 60-game season, but that’s a lot of walks, or not a lot of singles.

5) Houston 4, Minnesota 1— Greinke got out of a 30-pitch first inning without allowing a run, but only lasted four innings. Valdez was stellar with five shutout innings of relief, Brantley knocked in a couple run and Minnesota lost its 17th straight playoff game, dating back to 2004.

4) Chicago 4, Oakland 1— Lucas Giolito had a perfect game into the 7th inning; Jose Abreu hit a 2-run homer, as the White Sox won in their first playoff game since 2008.

Giolito’s grandfather was an actor who played Susan’s father on Seinfeld.

3) Tampa Bay 3, Toronto 1— Blake Snell allowed three baserunners while throwing 5.2 scoreless innings; Tampa Bay had gotten saves from 12 different pitchers this season, but Fairbanks got this save, and he wasn’t one of those 12 guys. Incredible juggling of a pitching staff.

2) New York 12, Cleveland 3— Shane Bieber picked a bad night to have a bad night; he gave up seven runs over 4.2 IP. New York hit four home runs; they send Tanaka out to the moumd for the two-game sweep Wednesday.

1) The presidential debate was so tedious/annoying last night, I put the WNBA game on- much better to watch. What an embarrassment. Our country desires better than this.

**Udog** · 09-30-2020, 09:05 AM

NBA public betting, line movement September 30
Patrick Everson

The Miami Heat have seven SU and ATS wins as underdogs in the 2020 NBA Playoffs. They opened as five-point underdogs for Wednesday's NBA Finals Game 1 against the Los Angeles Lakers.

NBA betting odds are on the board for Game 1 of the NBA Finals, set for Wednesday night. The surprising Miami Heat, who are a torrid 12-3 SU and ATS in the postseason, take on the Los Angeles Lakers at 9 p.m. ET.

DraftKings Sportsbook provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Wednesday’s matchup, along with odds to win the NBA championship.

NBA line movement

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET TUESDAY: BetMGM in Nevada opened the Lakers -5.5 and the line is now -4.5, but that's not indicative of the bulk of the action, nor the need. See below for details.

---

Miami’s run through the playoffs includes winning seven games SU and ATS from the underdog role. The Heat put away the Boston Celtics in six games in the Eastern Conference finals, closing with a 125-113 victory Sunday night. The Lakers are 12-3 SU and 9-5-1 ATS in the playoffs, finishing off the Nuggets 117-107 in Game 5 of the Western Conference finals Saturday.

DraftKings opened the Lakers -5 on Monday morning, and the line stuck there through Monday night. Likewise, the total opened and stuck at 217.5 Monday.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET TUESDAY: BetMGM Nevada's Jeff Stoneback said sharp play on the Heat +5.5 helped bring the number down to 4.5 for Wednesday's Game 1.
NBA public betting

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET TUESDAY: "We already need the Heat," BetMGM Nevada's Stoneback said. "There's a little sharp money on the 'dog, but the public is all over the Lakers." There's been little interest in the total so far, though it ticked from 218 to 217.5.

---

The Lakers were taking 64 percent of tickets and 72 percent of money on the spread Monday at DraftKings. And early bettors liked the Over, too, to the tune of 80 percent of tickets and 94 percent of dollars.

**Udog** · 09-30-2020, 09:08 AM

701MIAMI -702 LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 16-5 ATS (10.5 Units) in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games in the current season.

NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, September 30

Miami @ LA Lakers

Game 701-702
September 30, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
121.317
LA Lakers
130.066
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 9
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 5
217 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-5); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, September 30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (56 - 32) vs. LA LAKERS (64 - 22) - 9/30/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 20-37 ATS (-20.7 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 142-107 ATS (+24.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
MIAMI is 47-39 ATS (+4.1 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 29-20 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LA LAKERS are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 3-3 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 5-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA

Wednesday, September 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Miami @ LA Lakers
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami's last 10 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Lakers's last 10 games when playing at home against Miami

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-30-2020, 09:12 AM

Game 1 Odds: Heat vs. Lakers
Michael Crosson

It has been a little over 11 months since the winner of last year’s Finals, the Toronto Raptors, received their championship rings on the opening night of the 2019-20 NBA season, but the wait is finally over.

Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat will square off with LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers for one last series to crown the kings of the Disney World bubble in Orlando, Florida.

Betting Resources

Matchup: NBA Finals Game 1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

The Lakers will meet the Heat in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday from the NBA Bubble in Orlando, Florida. (AP)

NBA Finals Schedule

All games to be played on one day of rest

Game 1 - Wednesday, Sept. 30
Game 2 - Friday, Oct. 2
Game 3 - Sunday, Oct. 4
Game 4 - Tuesday, Oct. 6
Game 5 - Friday, Oct. 9
Game 6 - Sunday, Oct. 11
Game 7 - Tuesday, Oct. 13

Line Movements

The Heat continue to be doubted by the oddsmakers out in Las Vegas, now listing Miami as an ‘underdog’ in its third straight post-season series and a four and a half-point ‘dog for its Game 1 contest with the Lakers.

Without Steph Curry and the Warriors in the NBA Finals for the first time in five years, expect the landscape of the series to look much different as we will see two teams with defensive-minded coaches that play with a lot of energy go up against each other on basketball’s biggest stage.

The ‘over-under’ for this contest sits at 217.5 though, which is still a higher opening total than last year’s Toronto-Golden State Game 1 contest (OU 215).

Spread: Los Angeles -4.5
Money-Line: Los Angeles -185 Miami +165
Total: 217.5
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -350, Miami +290

Heat vs. Lakers Head-to-Head

Last Four Meetings (2018-2019)

Dec. 13, 2019: Los Angeles 113 at Miami 100, Lakers -5.5, Over 212
Nov. 8, 2019: Los Angeles 95 vs. Miami 80, Lakers -8.5, Under 218.5
Dec. 10, 2018: Los Angeles 108 vs. Miami 105, Lakers -5.5, Under 222
Nov. 18, 2018: Los Angeles 113 at Miami 97, Lakers -1, Under 224.5

The Lakers have won both matchups so far with the Heat this year in two very different fashions, but do not get it confused, it was all about Anthony Davis in both games. The first time these teams met up his defense was on display, as the Brow rejected three shots and scored a team-high 26 points during the Lakers’ 95-80 victory.

Aside from Butler’s 22 points on 44% shooting in the Heat’s first game with LAL this season, it was a miserable offensive performance from Erik Spoelstra’s team across the board as his team finished the contest shooting 35% from the field and 17% from deep in the loss.

The second meeting between Miami and Los Angeles was much higher scoring and closely contested, but the spotlight shone bright on Davis yet again by leading the Lakers in scoring for his second consecutive contest against the Heat (33 points, 10 reb, 4-9 3FG).

The Lakers won the contest so it got overshadowed, but the LAL defensive struggles at the guard position were on full display in their second contest with Miami this year, as Kendrick Nunn and Butler combined for 39 points and 6 steals in the contest. It simply was not enough though, as the Lakers escaped with the 113-110 victory.

Including the aforementioned results from this season, make a note that since LeBron joined the Lakers in 2018, Los Angeles has gone 4-0 straight up and 2-2 against the spread in four regular season meetings against his former team.

Miami Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 15-8 SU, 15-8 ATS, 12-10-1 O/U
Playoffs: 12-3 SU, 12-3 ATS, 8-7 O/U

At the start of the playoffs, it appeared to be a rocky path ahead, but the Heat have cruised right through the Eastern Conference by knocking off Indiana, Milwaukee, and Boston in just a combined 15 games.

The Lakers were built to beat teams like the Clippers and Rockets, but the Heat actually pose as an interesting matchup for LAL. Mainly because Bam Adebayo is capable of guarding Davis, but also because Miami has multiple, aggressive catch-and-shoot snipers in Herro, Robinson, and Dragic that the Lakers are notorious for having trouble defending outside.

I am not personally putting a dime on the Heat in this series, but Miami still sits as a +375 ‘underdog’ to win this year’s NBA Finals. So, if you are begging for reasons to bet against LeBron, now might be your best chance.

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 15-8 SU, 10-12-1 ATS, 11-12 O/U
Playoffs: 12-3 SU, 9-5-1 ATS, 7-8 O/U

People were worried about the Lakers following their Game 1 blunder to Damian Lillard and the Blazers in the first round...

People were worried about the Lakers following their Game 1 loss to James Harden and the Rockets in the conference semifinals...

People were worried when the Nuggets knocked off the Clippers in seven and if the Lakers could handle the one-two punch of Jokic and Murray...

Now, people are worried about this magical Heat unit that has made the Eastern Conference look like a cakewalk...

Should bettors backing L.A. be worried? No!

There is no need to worry about the Lakers whatsoever heading into this series. Los Angeles’ stars have had their heads on straight and eyes on the prize all the way inside the bubble, as LeBron and AD combined for 50+ points in all five contests against the Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals.

The Lakers have completed gentlemen’s sweeps in all three of their playoff series so far, have no injuries, and come into this series piping hot. The betting outlook appears bright in LA to say the least.

Key Injuries

Miami

PG Gabe Vincent: Knee - Game Time Decision
PF Chris Silva: Pelvis - Game Time Decision

Los Angeles

SG Dion Waiters: Groin - Game Time Decision

Good to see King James left off the injury report heading into the NBA Finals. His name was added to the report due to a nagging groin injury during the heart of the Lakers’ series with the Nuggets, but obviously was just for precautionary reasons as LeBron appears to be healthier than ever heading into his 10th NBA Finals.

Announcement

Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/30

Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/30

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment