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**Udog** · 09-25-2020, 09:28 AM

Do all the good you can, by all the means you can, in all the ways you can, in all the places you can, at all the times you can, to all the people you can, as long as ever you can.

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Six interesting spreads for this week’s college games:
— Florida (-13.5, 57) @ Ole Miss
— Iowa State (-2.5, 44.5) @ TCU
— Mississippi State @ LSU (-16.5, 57)
— Tulane (-3.5, 54.5) @ Southern Mississippi
— Army @ Cincinnati (-13.5, 45.5)
— NC State @ Virginia Tech (-6.5, 56.5)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 201,959
Please wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Friday's Den: Random stuff with the weekend here…….

13) Teams that have already clinched playoff spots will be tweaking their lineups and pitching setups this weekend; A’s used Jesus Luzardo for three innings in relief Thursday, as they ready to maybe piggy-back him and Mike Fiers in Game 1 of the playoffs on Tuesday.

San Diego might not have Mike Clevinger (biceps) now, so Dinelson Lamet could get their Game 1 nod on Wednesday, which may shorten his stint on the mound in San Francisco tonight.

12) Cardinals 4, Brewers 2— Yadier Molina got his 2,000th hit, which is a lot, especially for a catcher; 32-year old Kwang-Hyun Kim is 3-0, 1.62 in his first season of American baseball.

11) Astros 12, Rangers 4— Texas is 13-10 in its new domed stadium when the roof is closed; they’re 0-4 when the roof is open, as it was in this game. Jose Altuve had three hits, three RBI in his best game of what has been a poor season.

10) Dolphins 31, Jaguars 13:
— Miami’s first three drives: 29 plays, 239 yards, 21 points.
— Fitzpatrick was 18-20 passing for 160 yards, two TD’s.
— Dolphins won four of last five visits to Jacksonville.

— Dolphins had a 12-yard advantage in starting field position.
— Miami converted 7-13 on 3rd down, Jaguars 3-10.
— Last 4+ years, Jaguars are 6-10 ATS as a home favorite.

9) Indians 5, White Sox 4— Cleveland sweeps a 4-game series, has won seven of last eight games- they trail Pale Hose by a game, Twins by two games in AL Central. All three teams are going to make the playoffs.

8) Lakers 114, Nuggets 108 (LA leads 3-1)
— Third straight series Denver has trailed 3-1.
— James/Davis combined to shoot 28 foul shots; Denver shot 23.
— Denver subs were a combined minus-29 in 82:00.

7) Pac-12 is going to play football starting November 6; they’ll have their conference title game December 18. If they’re smart, Pac-12 will play some weeknight games; won’t be much else going on sports-wise during the week in November.

6) UAB 42, South Alabama 10— Blazers racked up 509 yards, converted 10-16 third down plays and led 28-10 at halftime- UAB averaged 11.4 yards per pass attempt.

5) Was bummed out when I found out this week that the Starbucks closest to my house closed down; used to stop in there for a hot chocolate and a slice of lemon pound cake- they have great lemon pound cake.

I’ve never had coffee, but hot chocolate on a chilly day is a good thing.

4) Congrats to the Toronto (Buffalo) Blue Jays, who clinched a playoff spot Thursday, despite playing their home games this season in their adopted hometown of Buffalo, where you can smelll Cheerios being made in the factory beyond the centerfield fence.

3) You know a guy is a sketchy prospect when he throws a no-hitter, and still doesn’t get picked up in our 14-team fantasy league, where each team has 28 players on his roster.

Cubs’ Alec Mills allowed eight runs in 9.2 IP in his two starts since throwing a no-hitter in Milwaukee September 13. For the season, he is 5-5, 4.48 in 11 starts.

2) Robinson Cano bunted for a hit against Washington’s shift in the 6th inning Thursday; it was his first bunt basehit since 2013.

1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
AL East: Tampa Bay, New York
AL Central: Minnesota, Chicago
AL West: Oakland, Houston
AL wild cards: Cleveland, Toronto

NL East: Atlanta, Miami
NL Central: Chicago, St Louis
NL West: Los Angeles, San Diego
NL wild cards: Cincinnati, San Francisco

**Udog** · 09-25-2020, 09:32 AM

715MIAMI -716 BOSTON
BOSTON is 53-31 ATS (18.9 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.

NBA
Dunkel

Friday, September 25

Miami @ Boston

Game 715-716
September 25, 2020 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
126.398
Boston
125.717
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 3 1/2
213
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+3 1/2); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, September 25

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MIAMI (55 - 31) vs. BOSTON (57 - 30) - 9/25/2020, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 49-34 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
BOSTON is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 40-30 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 38-29 ATS (+6.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 46-38 ATS (+4.2 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 28-19 ATS (+7.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 9-5 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 7-7 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 09-25-2020, 10:46 AM

Game 5 Odds: Heat vs. Celtics
Michael Crosson

On the back of a of a 20-year old rookie named Tyler Herro, the Miami Heat have taken a commanding 3-1 series lead against the third-seeded Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals.

The club from South Florida is now just win away from being the first team to punch a ticket to the 2020 NBA Finals in the NBA Bubble from Orlando, Florida on Friday as they meet in Game 5.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Eastern Conference Finals Game 5
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Friday, Sept. 25, 2020
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Heat rookie Tyler Herro scored 37 points in Game 3 as Miami opened up a 3-1 series lead over Boston. (AP)

Line Movements

The Celtics find themselves trailing the Heat by two games in this series, but Boston is still found on the majority of Vegas betting boards as a three and a half-point favorite to force a Game 6 in this year’s Eastern Conference Finals against Miami.

‘Under’ tickets have been golden in the NBA Playoffs thus far, but the same cannot be said when these teams two teams meet up, as three out of four games in this series have soared over the total. The ‘over-under’ for the fifth tilt in this series has gotten a slight bump up to OU 213.

Spread: Boston -3
Money-Line: Boston -155, Miami +135
Total: 213.5
Updated Series Price: Miami -400, Boston +325

Game 4 Recap

The Celtics choked away double-digit deficits in their first two losses of this series, but the loss by Brad Stevens’ team on Wednesday night was somehow even uglier.

Jayson Tatum was held scoreless during the first half of Game 4, putting his team in a difficult position to be successful in what has proven to be the most crucial contest for the Celtics thus far. He turned it on in the second half after it was already too late though, going for 28 points on 62.5% shooting in the final two stanzas.

On most days, Tatum’s second half explosion might have been just enough to send his team over the edge, but on this given Wednesday night, it was not nearly enough against Miami’s rookie off the bench from the University of Kentucky. Herro scored 37 points on 67% shooting and banged home 5 of 10 3-pointers against the Celtics in Game 4.

Miami has now cashed ‘underdog money line’ tickets in three out of four games in this series. They will look to do it one last time against the favorited Celtics on Friday night.

Game 4 Betting Results

It was a tale of two halves in Game 3 for total bettors and those playing the 'under' certainly weren't happy.

After the pair combined for just 94 points in the first 24 minutes, the offensive units came alive in the second-half and posted 59 and 68 points in the third and fourth quarter respectively.

Neither team shot from distance but the pair went a combined 41-of-48 from the charity stripe and those free points with no running clocks, 16 in the fourth quarter, are daggers for 'under' tickets.

Outcome: Heat 112 Celtics 109

Game: Heat Win, Heat Cover (+3.5), Over 212
First Quarter: Heat Win (24-23), Heat Cover (+1), Under 52.5
First-Half: Heat Win (50-44), Heat Cover (+2), Under 105
Second-Half: Celtics Win (65-62), Heat Cover (+3.5), Over 105.5

Heat Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 14-7 SU, 14-7 ATS, 10-10-1 O/U
Playoffs: 11-2 SU, 11-2 ATS, 6-7 O/U

Cover your eyes Heat fans if you have not seen Goran Dragic’s shooting numbers from last game because the 21 points he scored were not pretty. Dragic, who has been terrific for Miami in the playoffs thus far, seemed to be a little rusty coming off four days rest, going 8 for 21 from the field.

Jae Crowder also struggled in Game 4 from Miami, going 1 for 9 from the field and tallying just 3 points in the contest.

It all did not matter though because Herro had the game of his young life so far, going for 37 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists off the bench – the most points ever in a game by a Heat bench player in the post-season.

What Miami really had going for them on Wednesday night was its 2-3 defensive zone. The Celtics really wanted to emphasize a drive-and-kick scheme in Game 4, but the Heat defense did a phenomenal job of protecting the paint and closing out on shooters, giving Boston fits on offense for the whole contest.

Eric Spoelstra is not given enough credit for what he has done with his team. Look for the Heat to utilize that zone again on Friday night.

Celtics Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 14-9 SU, 12-10-1 ATS, 8-13-1 O/U
Playoffs: 9-6 SU, 9-6 ATS, 4-10 O/U

This is tough because Boston has been favorites in every game so far in this series, and I have agreed with the oddsmakers on every occasion – just like I do here.

I really think the Celtics will win on Friday night and force a Game 6; maybe even a Game 7. Not if the Heat are going to continue to get explosive assistance from guys not named Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo though.

If you would have told me Butler would not be the best player on the floor for a single game of this series, I would have guessed there is no way the Heat are in contention to win this series – but here they are, rolling the third seed in the East.

The Celtics need to figure out a way to contain these Heat role players. Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown have been great all year locking down the perimeter on defense. It all seems to have fallen apart here in this series though with Dragic and Herro exploding in their respective contests.

They figured out how to keep it under control in Game 3, and I think they will figure it out again on Friday night. Can they put together three consecutive wins though? Only time will tell. To start, they need to stop turning the ball over and drive into the paint more instead of settling for unassisted 3’s.

Key Injuries

Boston

SG Romeo Langford: Hip - Out

Miami

PF Gabe Vincent: Knee - Game Time Decision

PF Chris Silva: Pelvis - Game Time Decision

Romeo Langford is out for the season with a wrist injury after playing just a few minutes off the bench for the Celtics in this series.

Some may be asking, “Who is Langford?”

By trading down to acquire Tatum in the 2017 draft, Boston acquired Sacramento’s 2019 first round pick from Philadelphia. Miami and Sacramento both finished last season with 39-43 records, so essential

**Udog** · 09-25-2020, 02:33 PM

NBA

Friday, September 25

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Trend Report
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Miami @ Boston
Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Boston's last 17 games
Boston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Miami

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Announcement

Friday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/25

Friday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/25

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