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**Udog** · 09-24-2020, 09:51 AM

At the heart of each of us, whatever our imperfections, there exists a silent pulse of perfect rhythm, which is absolutely individual and unique, and yet which connects us to everything else.

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Six interesting spreads for this week’s college games:
— Florida State @ Miami (-14)
— Louisville @ Pittsburgh (-3)
— Tennessee (-3.5) @ South Carolina
— West Virginia @ Oklahoma State (-7)
— Kentucky @ Auburn (-8)
— Duke @ Virginia (-5.5)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 201,617
Please wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) We talked yesterday about the LA Chargers’ QB situation; Wednesday afternoon, word came out that on Sunday, Tyrod Taylor was getting a pain-killing shot for bruised ribs before the game, when the Chargers’ team doctor accidentally punctured Taylor’s lung with the needle.

Oy.

Rookie QB Justin Herbert is likely to start again this week; it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out, going forward. I’m thinking the Chargers might also have a new team doctor soon.

12) Thinking out loud here, but is it better to be the #3 seed in the American League than the #2 seed?

#3 seed would play the 2nd-place team with the worst record, which right now would be the Astros, who are 28-28.

#2 seed would play the #1 Wild Card team, which right now would be Cleveland, which is 32-24.

The #1 Wild Card team figures to be a team that ended the regular season on a roll; this is such a unique situation, no real way of knowing until it all plays out.

11) There could be extra games before the playoffs begin; St Louis may have to play a doubleheader on Monday if they’re still in contention to make the playoffs, then there is the possibility that three teams tie for the two Wild Cards in the National League- that could be very cumbersome.

10) Tuesday night in Washington, the Nationals beat Philly 9-8 when 32-year old rookie Yadiel Hernandez hit a walk-off homer for Washington. Hernandez is now the oldest player in MLB history whose first career home run was also a walk-off blast.

9) Tampa Bay 8, New York Mets 5— Rays win their first AL East tile since 2010.

8) RIP to the great running back Gale Sayers, 77, who passed away this week after suffering from dementia the last few years. RIP, sir.

Sayers was a great running back, fast, elusive- he scored six TD’s in a game against the 49ers, but he also hurt his knee in a later game against San Francisco and played only seven years in the NFL. Sayers was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame when he was 34.

7) Back in the early 70’s, ABC had a Tuesday night movie of the week, where the movies were made just for showing on TV, not in theaters. Brian’s Song was one of those, but what a cast: Billy Dee Williams, James Caan, Jack Warden.

The movie chronicled a great friendship between Sayers and teammate Brian Piccolo; Piccolo replaced Sayers when he got hurt, but Piccolo was discovered to have cancer, and he passed away way too young. Very sad movie, but Brian’s Song is one of the best-ever sports movies.

6) Miami 112, Boston 109 (Heat leads 3-1):
— Tyler Herro scored 37 points in 36:00 off the bench.
— Miami was +11 (19-8) in turnovers.
— Celtics took 40 3-point shots, 42 2-point shots.

5) It is interesting to me the total lack of major league catchers who are good hitters; JT Realmuto is far and away the best of the bunch, everyone else is hit-and-miss. Modern baseball values defense more than offense behind the plate.

4) Tuesday night was a rough night for an Australian gambler; this is from Ben Fawkes, who works for VSIN:

– This person wagered $228,733 on Lakers money line (-263) pre-game

– The person then cashed out for $97,624 in the 2nd quarter with Denver leading 44-32

– The person placed all that money on Denver -9.5

Denver won 114-106 after Alex Caruso made an unguarded layup w/ 1.6 sec left. Not good.

3) Random stat: Yu Darvish is having a great season for the Cubs; nine of his 11 starts have been at home at Wrigley Field, but in his two road starts, he’s allowed only one run in 13 innings.

2) Here is some obscure trivia: In many East Asian cultures, including China, Korea, Japan and Taiwan, the number 4 is considered unlucky.

You probably wouldn’t see a button indicating the 4th floor on an elevator because most apartment buildings and hospitals skip the number four altogether. In Beijing, it’s not even possible to get a vehicle license plate that has the number 4 on it. The Chinese word for the number 4 sounds much like the Chinese word for death., and that is why it is considered unlucky.

1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
AL East: Tampa Bay, New York
AL Central: Minnesota, Chicago
AL West: Oakland, Houston
AL wild cards: Cleveland, Toronto

NL East: Atlanta, Miami
NL Central: Chicago, St Louis
NL West: Los Angeles, San Diego
NL wild cards: Cincinnati, San Francisco

**Udog** · 09-24-2020, 09:57 AM

709LA LAKERS -710 DENVER
DENVER is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) when trailing in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons.

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, September 24

LA Lakers @ Denver

Game 709-710
September 24, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
122.381
Denver
124.598
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 2
212
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 6
214 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+6); Under

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 24

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LA LAKERS (62 - 22) vs. DENVER (55 - 35) - 9/24/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when trailing in a playoff series this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 8-6 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 8-6 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Thursday, September 24

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Trend Report
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LA Lakers @ Denver
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 6 games when playing Denver
Denver
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

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**Udog** · 09-24-2020, 12:43 PM

Game 4 Odds: Lakers vs. Nuggets
Michael Crosson

Victory hung in the balance during the closing seconds of Game 2, but it finally became a reality for Mike Malone’s squad in Game 3.

The Denver Nuggets knocked off the Los Angeles Lakers, 114-106 on Tuesday night, and now have a chance to even up the series at two games apiece with another win in Thursday’s Game 4 showdown in the NBA bubble.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Western Conference Finals Game 4
Series: Lakers lead 2-1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Thursday, Sept. 24, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

The Nuggets captured a wire-to-wire win in Game 3 but still trail the Lakers 2-1 in the Western Conference Finals. (AP)

Line Movements

Despite the Nuggets losing at the buzzer in Game 2, and cashing hefty ‘underdog money line’ tickets in their most recent contest with the Lakers, the oddsmakers are still rolling with the same line, Denver +6, for Game 4 of these Western Conference Finals.

After combining for an average over 222 points per game in the first three contests of this series and cashing ‘over’ tickets in two out of those three games, Vegas has decided to stay-put with the ‘over-under’ as well, leaving it at the same clip – OU 214.5.

Spread: Los Angeles -6
Money-Line: Los Angeles -250, Miami +210
Total: 214.5
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -1400, Denver +800 +105

Game 3 Recap

Let me tell you, if I am asked to recall one in-game moment from this whole NBA bubble phase when this season is all said and done, I can almost guarantee my answer will be, “the night LeBron James and the Lakers were forced to double-team Jerami Grant in the midst of a title run.”

There is something ironically pleasing burning the image in my head of the former-Sixer forward going off 26 points on 63.6% shooting in a must-win game against a Laker team that typically guards his position relatively well.

Anthony Davis and LeBron were not the guys catching blame in the LAL locker room following Game 3, combining for 57 of their teams’ 106 points on 57.5% shooting for the contest.

It just simply was not enough to get it done against the Nuggets on this given night, as Jamal Murray poured in 10 fourth quarter points on 80% shooting to seal his team’s first Conference Finals victory in the bubble.

Game 3 Betting Results

Denver came out firing in the first and second quarters on Tuesday in Game 3, posting 63 points at halftime.

That effort helped the 'over' connect in both the first-half and second-half, plus the rally by the Lakers in the second-half came up short and that hurt bettors chasing on L.A. (-6.5) in the final 24 minutes.

Outcome: Nuggets 114 Lakers 106

Game: Nuggets Win, Nuggets Cover (+6.5), Over 215
First Quarter: Nuggets Win (29-27), Nuggets Cover (+2), Over 55
First-Half: Nuggets Win (63-53), Nuggets Cover (+3.5), Over 109.5
Second-Half: Lakers Win (53-51), Nuggets Cover (+6.5), Under 104.5

Lakers Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 13-8 SU, 9-12 ATS, 9-12 O/U
Playoffs: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS, 5-8 O/U

I figured the Lakers would take their foot off the gas a tad once they went up 2-0 on the Nuggets in this series, but not in the way they ended up doing it on Tuesday. I imagined Davis drawing tons of double teams and Lebron sharing the ball way too much – not Danny Green, Alex Caruso, AND Rajon Rondo stinking up the joint for the entirety of the contest.

LeBron was great in the contest and honestly looked like the only player on the court for LAL that wanted to win down the stretch of Game 3 – tallying another monster triple-double of 30 points, 11 assists, and 10 rebounds in the contest.

Davis ended up with 27 points on 53% shooting in the contest, but he looked downright lethargic for most of the game – corralling just two rebounds and bricking all four of his 3-point attempts.

This is likely just a case of Frank Vogel’s team a little too comfortable a little too soon against a very dangerous unit. I expect them to get it together and look like the Lakers from Game 1 on Thursday night.

Nuggets Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 12-13 SU, 16-9 ATS, 15-8-2 O/U
Playoffs: 9-8 SU, 12-5 ATS, 7-8-2 O/U

Clearly, Denver’s ability to finally over the hump against Los Angeles did wonders for Nikola Jokic and company, as we saw the Lakers fall from -10000 favorites to represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals, all the way down to -1400 favorites in the time frame of just a few hours during the Nuggets Game 3 victory.

The Nuggets entered the fourth quarter of Game 3 with an 18-point advantage, but even with that large of a lead, Denver still needed some late-game, 3-point heroics from Murray to close out the Lakers who rallied all the way back to just a three-point deficit by the middle of the last stanza.

Murray better bring the fourth quarter shooting he had on Tuesday night with him to the HP Field House for the whole contest on Thursday. There is going to be a frustrated King James waiting for him at the start of Game 4.

Key Injuries

L.A. Lakers

SG Dion Waiters: Groin - Out

Denver

SF Vlatko Cancar: Foot - Out
SF Will Barton: Knee - Out

LeBron landed on the injury report heading into Game 3 with a nagging groin issue he has been nursing all season.

Los Angeles did not even bother putting him on the report for Thursday night’s contest after a lackluster performance across the board from the “Showtime” squad in their last matchup.

Announcement

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/24

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/24

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