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**Udog** · 09-23-2020, 09:17 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Six interesting spreads for this Week 3 NFL games:
— Panthers @ LA Chargers (-6.5, 44)
— Lions @ Arizona (-6, 54.5)
— Buccaneers (-6, 43.5) @ Denver
— Cowboys @ Seattle (-5, 55.5)
— Packers @ New Orleans (-3, 51.5)
— Chiefs @ Baltimore (-3.5, 53.5)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 200,641
Please wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's Den: Mid-week musings………

13) LA Chargers and head coach Anthony Lynn may have to have a conversation soon; he seems committed to Tyrod Taylor being the Chargers #1 QB, but fact of the matter is, rookie Justin Herbert was the 6th player taken in last spring’s draft- they’ve got a lot of $$$ tied up in him, and he looked good against the Chiefs Sunday, so he will be the starter, and probably soon.

Recent QB’s taken in the top 10 of the draft and when they first started:
2020:
— Joe Burrow— started Weeks 1-2
— Justin Herbert— started Week 2, but because of injury
— Tua Tagovailoa— hasn’t played yet

2019:
— Kyler Murray— started all 16 games
— Daniel Jones— started 12 games

2018:
— Baker Mayfield— started 13 games
— Sam Darnold— started 13 games
— Josh Allen— started 11 games
— Josh Rosen— started 13 games

2017:
— Mitch Trubisky— started 12 games
— Patrick Mahomes— started one game

Odds are the Chargers aren’t going to let Herbert sit on the bench all year.

12) Unusual situation this weekend, with the 49ers playing back/back games in New Jersey, especially when they had a lot of injuries against the Jets last week and complained about the “sticky” turf at MetLife Stadium.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t play in the 2nd half after spraining his ankle; he’s expected to play this week.

49ers are staying/practicing at the Greenbrier resort in West Virginia this week; its pretty nice there- golfer Nick Faldo owns a home there.

11) Speaking of turf, the Las Vegas Raiders play home games on natural grass, which is wheeled outside brand-new Allegiant Stadium when the Raiders aren’t playing there.

When UNLV plays its home games in, they’ll play on an artificial turf field that is on the floor of the new stadium. Playing on artificial turf is cheaper than maintaining a pristine grass field.

10) Jacob deGrom has been the ace of my fantasy baseball team for a few years now; I was watching him pitch Monday night and I wondered if pitchers got queasy when they saw certain umpires calling balls and strikes when they pitched.

So I looked up deGrpm’s record and came up with umpires who he excelled with, and also some where things didn’t go so well;

Umpires he likes to see:
— Ron Kulpa 2-0, 0;66 four starts
— Paul Mauert 3-0, 0.75 four starts
— Mark Ripperger 2-0, 1.64 three starts
— Lance Barrett 2-0, 0.48 three starts
— Jeff Nelson 3-0, 1.90 four starts

Umpires he’d rather not see:
— Tom Hallion 1-2, 6.87 four starts
— Mike Muchlinski 1-2, 7.98 three starts
— John Tumpane 0-3, 3.68 five starts

9) Two additional things about pitchers/umpires:
a) Next year, when things go back to 162 games, we’ll do more on our daily write-ups about umpires, getting back to the way we’ve always done things.

b) In October/November, when things get slow again before the college hoop/NBA re-starts, I’ll do a deeper dive into pitchers and umpires. Lot of good information in that database.

8) Since the Tampa Bay Rays started using an opener, a relief pitcher throwing the first inning or so, they’ve gone 64-41 in games where they used one. They do things differently, but it sure does work.

7) Nuggets 114, Lakers 106 (LA leads 2-1):
— Nuggets shot 55% from the floor for the game.
— Denver’s four subs were a combined +16.
— Lakers’ three starters other than Davis/James scored a combined 20 points.
— To oversimplify, Denver looked like the much hungrier team in this game.

6) Unusual situation in Anaheim, where SS Andrelton Simmons opted out of the rest of the season with six days to go, with the Angels still alive (though barely) for a playoff spot. The team was taken completely by surprise.

Simmons is a free agent after the season; this would lead you to believe that he has zero desire to re-sign with the Halos.

5) Chicago Bulls hired Billy Donovan as their new coach, which has to make give a lot of college coaches reasons to exhale— he would’ve been a highly sought after college coach.

I’m curious if Donovan would’ve been a strong candidate for the Knicks/Nets if he became available before those jobs were filled— Donovan grew up on Long Island.

4) Denver Broncos signed QB Blake Bortles to back up Jeff Driskel while Drew Lock nurses his injuries. Lock is expected to miss 3-4 weeks.

3) Cubs’ SS Javy Baez and Twins’ P Jose Berrios are married to sisters; they faced each other in the last two All-Star games, but until last Sunday night, they had never faced each other in a regular season game. Baez went 0-4 Sunday night, in a game Berrios won 4-0.

2) It is very early in this truncated college football season, but so far, home favorites in conference games are 1-5 ATS. Home underdogs are 2-2.

1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
AL East: Tampa Bay, New York
AL Central: Chicago, Minnesota
AL West: Oakland, Houston
AL wild cards: Cleveland, Toronto

NL East: Atlanta, Miami
NL Central: Chicago, St Louis
NL West: Los Angeles, San Diego
NL wild cards: Cin/Mil/SF

**Udog** · 09-23-2020, 09:22 AM

713BOSTON -714 MIAMI
BOSTON is 53-30 ATS (20 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.

NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, September 23

Boston @ Miami

Game 713-714
September 23, 2020 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
126.503
Miami
125.613
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 1
208
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 3 1/2
210 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+3 1/2); Under

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, September 23

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BOSTON (57 - 29) vs. MIAMI (54 - 31) - 9/23/2020, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 45-29 ATS (+13.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 49-33 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 40-29 ATS (+8.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 38-28 ATS (+7.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 8-5 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 7-6 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Wednesday, September 23

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Boston @ Miami
Boston
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Miami
Miami is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games
Miami is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games

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**Udog** · 09-23-2020, 11:45 AM

Game 4 Odds: Celtics vs. Heat
Michael Crosson

After blowing 10-point leads in each of the first two Eastern Conference Final contests, the Boston Celtics finally secured their first victory of the series with a 117-106 win on Saturday night.

The hill to climb remains steep for Brad Steven’s squad though as they still trail the Heat 2-1 heading into Wednesday’s Game 4 tilt in the bubble.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Eastern Conference Finals Game 4
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2020
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Gordon Hayward returned for the Celtics in Game 3 and lifted Boston past Miami. (AP)

Line Movements

The Celtics finally rewarded ‘favorite bettors’ by winning and covering in Game 3 on Saturday night, and Vegas has decided to lean on them again for Game 4 – listing Boston as a two and a half-point favorite to even up this series with Miami.

The winning team in this series has eclipsed 115 points in two out of the three contests so far, easily sending the total ‘over’ in those two matchups, respectively.

The total for this game still sits at OU 210.5 though, as the oddsmakers refuse to give these tough defensive units any leeway on the ‘over-under.’

Spread: Boston -3
Money-Line: Boston -160, Miami +140
Total: 210.5
Updated Series Price: Miami -125, Boston +105

Game 3 Recap

Opportunity knocked for Jayson Tatum on Saturday night when the spotlight fell on him to lead his team to it first victory in this year’s Eastern Conference Finals, and he did not “disappoint´ – leading his team in shot attempts and contributing 25 points, 14 rebounds, and 8 assists on 45% shooting to the Celtic victory.

What really got my attention though, was how the rest of the Boston starters answered the bell in this game, especially Jaylen Brown.

Believe it or not, Tatum was the only Celtic starter to record a field goal percentage under 50% in this contest – led by Brown who scored 26 points on 65% shooting.

The Heat may have failed to knock off the Celtics on Saturday night, but it was not because Bam Adebayo short-changed his team by any means.

Bam will look to continue his playoff tear against the Celtics on Wednesday night after going for 27 points on 71% shooting in the Heat’s Game 3 loss.

Game 3 Betting Results

The Boston offense finally put forth a consistent effort in Game 3 and bettors were able to cash the club in the first quarter, first-half, second-half and for the game.

The 'over' got off to a decent start and also remained steady in the final two quarters, which helped the high side connect across the board too.

Outcome: Celtics 117 Heat 106

Game: Celtics Win, Celtics Cover (-3.5), Over 208.5
First Quarter: Celtics Win (31-22), Celtics Cover (-2), Over 52.5
First-Half: Celtics Win (63-50), Celtics Cover (-3), Over 104.5
Second-Half: Heat Win (56-54), Celtics Cover (+3.5), Over 104

Celtics Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 14-8 SU, 12-9-1 ATS, 7-13-1 O/U
Playoffs: 9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS, 3-10 O/U

Marcus Smart and Kemba Walker really stepped up in a big way for the Celtics on Saturday night as the guard tandem combined for 41 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists to help guide their team to its first victory of this series.

The glorious part about this game for Boston is that Tatum has a relatively pedestrian outing during the Celtics’ must-win bout, but the Celtics still dominated for the entirety of the contest – never trailing Miami at the end of a single stanza in this one.

Tatum has the star-power to completely take over a game and win it for his team if he needs to, but it was good to see he does not necessarily need to do it in order to earn victories in this series.

Heat Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 13-7 SU, 13-7 ATS, 9-10-1 O/U
Playoffs: 10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS, 5-7 O/U

Miami is still in the driver’s seat in this series, but to say Vegas is not worried about Jimmy Butler and company might be a stretch, as the Heat have fallen to just a -135 favorite to represent the East in this year’s NBA Finals after earning a 2-0 lead on the third-seeded Celtics.

A team that had been winning games with soul-sucking defense and clutch shooting appeared to be totally unenthused about keeping up with the hot-shooting Boston lineup in Game 3.

Miami utilized a 2-3 zone for extended stretches during the first two games of this series – just begging Boston to beat them from deep. Eric Spoelstra may want to try going back to that more frequently on defense if his guys are going to continuously allow Boston to shoot at a 49% clip as a unit from 2-point territory.

Key Injuries

Boston

SG Romeo Langford: Hip - Out

Miami

PF Chris Silva: Pelvis - Game Time Decision

After exiting Boston’s very first playoff game in the bubble against Philadelphia with an ankle injury, Gordon Hayward returned to the court for Game 3 of this series and logged 30 minutes off the bench in his first contest back since August 17th.

The extra rest between games three and four should serve as crucial recovery time as he tries to return to full-strength for the tail-end of this series.

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Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/23

Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/23

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