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**Udog** · 09-18-2020, 09:52 AM

In life, it's important to know when to stop arguing with people and simply let them be wrong.

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

NFL QB’s who got to 10,000 passing yards the fastest:
36 games— Kurt Warner
37— Matthew Stafford
38— Dan Marino
38— Andrew Luck
38— Marc Bulger
32— Patrick Mahomes has 9,623 passing yards in 32 games; he will be on top of this list in a couple of weeks.
Americans who have died from COVID-19: 197,244
Please wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Friday's Den: Wrapping up a busy Thursday

13) White Sox 4, Twins 3— Chicago clinches its first playoff berth since 2008.

6th inning of this game, Josh Donaldson was carping about balls/strikes during his at-bat, then he hits a home run to put the Twins up 3-2. When he rounds the bases, he kicks dirt on home plate as he scores as the ump kicks him out. Not good.

Twins are fighting like hell to make the playoffs; you can’t get kicked out of a one-run game.

12) Dodgers were the first team to clinch a playoff berth; they’re 35-15 this season.

11) Browns 35, Bengals 30:
— Burrow was 37-61 for 316 yards, most passes a rookie has ever completed in a game.
— Bengals had 30 first downs, converted 8-18 on 3rd down.
— Last three years, Cincy is 15-8 ATS as a road underdog; over is 11-2 in their last 13 road openers.
— Bengals went 5-5 going for it on 4th down.

— Chubb ran for 124 yards, two TD’s for the Browns.
— Cleveland scored TD’s on three of first four drives.
— Browns allowed 68 points in splitting their first two games.

10) Sean McVay is in his 4th year as an NFL head coach; he went to college at Miami OH, but he is four years younger than another Miami alum, Ben Roethlisberger, who is still playing ball. McVay is 34, Big Ben is 38.

9) When the Clippers ousted Dallas in the first round of the playoffs, they shot 47% on 3-point shots from the corner, which is exceptional.

Problem is, they got to Game 7 against Denver in the 2nd round and went 0-12 on those corner jumpers behind the arc. 0-12 doesn’t butter the biscuit.

8) An adventurous gambler wagered $200,000 on the Lakers to win the NBA title; if the Lakers win it all, the bettor pockets $121,212.

7) Heat 106, Celtics 101 (Miami leads 2-0)
— Miami was down 13 at the half, but held Boston to 41 points in 2nd half, after Celtics scored 60 in first half.
— Miami was +11 (20-9) in turnovers.
— Crowder/Robinson took 24 shots; 22 of them were 3’s.

6) This weekend’s Mariners-Padres series was moved to San Diego, because of the poor air quality in Seattle.

5) Angels’ rookie 1B Jared Walsh has scored a run/driven in a run in nine consecutive games, the longest streak like that by a rookie in baseball history.

4) Saw a film clip Thursday of Colorado Rockies’ manager Bud Black giving up Reggie Jackson’s 500th home run in 1984, when Jackson was playing for the Angels. Black was a good pitcher, with a 121-116 career record.

Angels’ manager then was John McNamara; two years later, he was Boston’s manager when they lost the World Series in seven games to the Mets. He was also Jackson’s manager in Oakland in 1970, when Jackson got involved in a squabble with owner Charlie Finley, the team unraveled and McNamara got fired.

3) How would you like to be the guy who works for the Diamondbacks who advised them to sign Madison Bumgarner to a 5-year, $85M contract? You’d have to be a little bit queasy about you job.

Bumgarner is only 31, but he’s got a lot of miles on that arm; he’s thrown 1,877 regular season innings and 101 more in the postseason. This year, he is 0-4, 8.53 in seven starts. Not good.

2) Get well soon to Texas Rangers’ TV analyst CJ Nitkowski, who tested positive for COVID; Ranger games are fun to listen to- Nitkowski is a good analyst.

1) If you baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
AL East: Tampa Bay, New York
AL Central: Chicago, Minnesota
AL West: Oakland, Houston
AL wild cards: Cleveland, Toronto

NL East: Atlanta, Miami
NL Central: Chicago, Cincinnati
NL West: Los Angeles, San Diego
NL wild cards: Philadelphia, San Francisco

**Udog** · 09-18-2020, 09:56 AM

733DENVER -734 LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 39-23 ATS (13.7 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the last 3 seasons.

NBA
Dunkel

Friday, September 18

Denver @ LA Lakers

Game 733-734
September 18, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
118.260
LA Lakers
128.718
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 10 1/2
220
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 6 1/2
212
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-6 1/2); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, September 18

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DENVER (54 - 33) vs. LA LAKERS (60 - 21) - 9/18/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 6-5 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 6-5 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Friday, September 18

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Trend Report
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Denver @ LA Lakers
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Denver's last 8 games
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
LA Lakers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

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**Udog** · 09-18-2020, 10:16 AM

Game 1 Odds: Nuggets vs. Lakers
Michael Crosson

The NBA Western Conference Finals will tip off on Friday with the No. 3 Denver Nuggets meeting the No. 1 Los Angeles Lakers in Game 1 of their best-of-seven series.

The Rockets appeared to have something special saved up for the Lakers following Houston’s 112-97 win in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals against LAL, but that was short lived as LeBron James rallied his guys to four straight victories, securing the first Western Conference Finals berth of 2020.

Denver’s route to the Western Conference Finals was a little more bumpy than the top-seeded Lakers’ path, as The Nuggets have been forced to play six elimination games inside the bubble already and have came away with six gutsy victories in those contests.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Western Conference Finals Game 1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Friday, Sept. 18, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

Jamal Murray and the Denver Nuggets have opened as healthy underdogs to the L.A. Lakers in Game 1. (AP)

Western Conference Finals Schedule

All games to be played on one day of rest

Game 1 - Friday, Sept. 18
Game 2 - Sunday, Sept. 20
Game 3 - Tuesday, Sept. 22
Game 4 - Thursday, Sept. 24
Game 5 - Saturday, Sept. 26
Game 6 - Monday, Sept. 28
Game 7 - Wednesday, Sept. 30

Betting Odds - Nuggets vs. Lakers

After up catching on a much needed five days of rest, the Lakers head into their first matchup with Denver as seven-point, despite being 0-2 SU in series openers inside the bubble.

The oddsmakers are not messing around with the ‘over-under’ in this series after watching 20 out of 28 post-season games fall ‘under’ the total inside the bubble so far – setting the line for Friday’s contest at a relatively low bar of OU 212.

The Nuggets are currently listed as ‘+400 underdogs’ to advance to the NBA Finals, but if you are looking to place a wager on Denver in this matchup, you might be better off waiting until the Lakers take a 3-1 lead because that is when Jamal Murray and company seem to do their best work.

Spread: Los Angeles -7
Money-Line: Los Angeles -280 Denver +240
Total: 212
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -500, Denver +400

Nuggets vs. Clippers Head-to-Head

2019-20 Regular Season

Aug. 10, 2020: Los Angeles 124 vs. Denver 121, Lakers -5, Over 223.5
Feb. 12, 2020: Los Angeles 120 at Denver 115, Lakers -3, Over 220.5
Dec. 22, 2019: Denver 128 at Los Angeles 104, Nuggets +2.5, Over 208.5
Dec. 3, 2019: Los Angeles 104 at Denver 96, Lakers +2.5, Under 208

Los Angeles held a 3-1 straight up advantage against Denver so far this seasonr, but the Nuggets have covered a hypothetical seven-point spread in three of those contests.

Prior to the NBA shutdown, the Nuggets did a great job defending the high-powered Lakers, holding them to just 106 points per game.

When these teams met up in the bubble though, the game quickly turned into a track meet as Kyle Kuzma went for 25 points on 68% shooting in the LAL’s 124-121 victory.

I believe the best way to get a feel for what kind of game we are going to see on Friday night, is by examining the overtime matchup in Denver between these teams back in February.

Nobody has had an answer for Murray defensively so far in these playoffs and the Lakers certainly did not have one for him back in the regular season when he went for 32 points on 13 for 25 shooting from the field – but it still was not enough to take down LAL, as LeBron teamed up with Anthony Davis and bullied their way to a combined 65 points to seal the victory.

Jokic was good in the contest too, tallying 22 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists to complement Murray’s electric outing, but again, it was not nearly enough to get them over the hump against the Lakers’ star-packed lineup.

Aside from Denver’s 128-104 victory back around Christmas-time, these teams have played each other pretty close and I have a feeling Game 1 of this series is going to end up in a similar fashion.

Denver Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 11-11 SU, 13-10 ATS, 13-8-1 O/U
Playoffs: 8-6 SU, 10-4 ATS, 5-8-1 O/U

The Nuggets are riding high following their Game 7 victory over the Clippers on Tuesday night, thanks to another insane 40-point outing from Murray (57% FG) to close out the second seed in the West.

It appeared most fans just assumed the Clippers would come out victorious in the series SOMEHOW, but Denver ended up making a mockery of Doc Rivers’ team by the end of the contest – highlighted by the Joker tossing a backwards pass over his head to a cutting Murray, already boasting a 15-point lead in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter.

Jokic and Murray combined for 56 points, 26 rebounds, and 18 assists on 51.3% shooting for the Nuggets in Game 7, and they will get a crack at a LAL team that really struggles to defend the perimeter at times.

If Mike Malone is going to continuously get that type of production from his young stars, there is no doubt the Nuggets could make LeBron and his crew sweat out a few extra games in this series, especially with the shooting cold-spells LA has been experiencing at times inside the bubble..

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 11-7 SU, 8-10 ATS, 7-11 O/U
Playoffs: 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS, 3-7 O/U

This matchup is really interesting to me because throughout the course of this year the Lakers have been the kings of “being caught off guard” by teams, and the Nuggets appeared to just lull the Clippers to sleep and completely catch them off guard in their previous series after falling in an 0-2 hole against the other team hailing from Los Angeles.

I am a little worried about something similar happening to Frank Vogel’s team in this series. The hype all year surrounded the two teams from Los Angeles potentially squaring off in the Western Conference Finals against each other, and now that the Clippers have been upset by Denver, it seems a lot of the buzz surrounding this series has faded.

The Lakers will win this series and likely this year’s NBA Finals, but do not be surprised if the Nuggets come out of the gates playing with an unmatchable amount of energy in Game 1 and put the pressure on LAL early.

Key Injuries

Denver

SF Vlatko Cancar: Foot - Out
SF Will Barton: Knee - Out

Los Angeles

SG Dion Waiters: Groin - Game Time Decision

Dion Waiters would probably hate me for saying this – but nothing significant on the injury report heading into the first game of this series.

It looks like there is a chance Denver could get Vlatko Cancar back before the end of this series, but other than that, minute rotations should look pretty similar to how they have looked in previous series for these teams.

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Friday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/18

Friday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/18

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