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**Udog** · 09-10-2020, 09:21 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

NFL teams with most room under the salary cap:
$34.74M— Cleveland
$32.24M— New England
$31.31M— NJ Jets
$30.95M— Jacksonville
$26.03M— Washington
$25.43M— Denver

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 190,589
Please wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Nobody asked me, but……..

13) A courageous gambler in New Jersey wagered $22,000 on the New Orleans Saints to win the Super Bowl, at 11-1 odds.

This isn’t related to that note, but over the last nine seasons, Saints are 2-15 ATS in Weeks 1-2 of each season. New Orleans is favored over Tom Brady’s Buccaneers Sunday.

12) Over the last decade, which NFL quarterback is the most profitable on to bet on Week 1?
I’ll post the answer below.

11) Justin Timberlake has become an investor in a group trying to bring major league baseball to Nashville; I’m thinking MLB will expand to 32 teams fairly soon; Nashville, Portland, Montreal are among the teams who are potential homes for new teams.

10) What do these people have in common?
John McCain, John McEnroe, Amy Adams, Bruce Willis

They were all born overseas, with their parents stationed in the military.

9) Houston Astros are 22-22, have lot of injuries; they’re 3-14 in California this season.

8) Other than Jacob deGrom, Mets’ starting pitchers have a 6.47 ERA this year.

7) Random opinion; Dave Parker should be in the Hall of Fame; Cubs’ TV guys were talking about the greatest RF’s ever and Jim Deshaies is throwing out a few names, all-time greats, and Parker is right in there with them. Hopefully he’ll get his day soon.

6) The best compliment a coach can give a basketball player; tie game, 2:00 to play, and you’re on the floor. Who finishes a close game is way more important than who starts the game.

5) Tuesday night, Oakland reliever Lou Trivino became the first reliever since 2005 to pitch the last inning of a win, getting the last three outs on three pitches. That has happened only seven times since 1988.

4) Duke Blue Devils were 2-4-1 ATS as an underdog last year, after going 27-10-1 from 2013-18.

12a) Answer to quiz: Over the last decade, Andy Dalton is 6-2-1 ATS in Week 1, making him the NFL’s most profitable QB in Week 1 games. He is the backup in Dallas now.

3) Toronto 125, Boston 122, 2OT (series 3-3)
— This was big-time basketball at its finest; high quality, intense game.
— Four Raptors played 50:00+.
— Kyle Lowry scored 33; shot 6-10 on the arc, 6-10 inside the arc.
— Four Boston subs played a total of only 39:00.

2) LA Clippers 96, Denver 87 (LA leads 3-1)
— Clippers led 26-12 after first quarter, then held Denver off.
— Other than Nokic, Denver starters were 10-28 from the floor.
— Nuggets were down 3-1 in last series, and won that one.

1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
AL East- Tampa Bay, Toronto
AL Central- Chicago, Cleveland
AL West- Oakland, Houston
AL Wild Cards- Minnesota, New York

NL East- Atlanta, Philadelphia
NL Central- Chicago, St Louis
NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
NL Wild Cards- Miami, San Francisco

**Udog** · 09-10-2020, 09:23 AM

NBA public betting, line movement September 10
Patrick Everson

The Rockets' Russell Westbrook and the Lakers' Anthony Davis will have plenty to say about how Game 4 of the Western Conference finals plays out Thursday. Los Angeles is -5 at The SuperBook.

NBA betting odds are up for a slimmed-down Thursday playoffs schedule, with just one matchup on the docket. The Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets clash in Game 4 of their Western Conference semifinal series.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s contest.

NBA line movement

The Lakers got rolled by 15 points in Game 1, then bounced back with a pair of victories, including a 112-102 win in Game 3 Tuesday night. Los Angeles opened -5 at The SuperBook for Game 4, and there was no line movement as of late Wednesday for a 7 p.m. ET Thursday tipoff.

The total also had zero movement through Wednesday, sticking at 220.5 at The SuperBook.

NBA public betting

In what’s become a pattern this series, Consensus is showing point-spread support for the underdog Rockets. As of late Wednesday night, there was two-way play, but Houston was attracting 55 percent of picks. The total had a more clear differentiation, with 67 percent of early Consensus picks on the Over.

**Udog** · 09-10-2020, 09:28 AM

715LA LAKERS -716 HOUSTON
LA LAKERS are 9-20 ATS (-13 Units) in road games when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days in the last 3 seasons.

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, September 10

LA Lakers @ Houston

Game 715-716
September 10, 2020 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
120.171
Houston
119.098
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 1
223
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 5 1/2
220 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+5 1/2); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 10

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LA LAKERS (58 - 21) vs. HOUSTON (49 - 33) - 9/10/2020, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 53-37 ATS (+12.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 8-6 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 9-5 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Thursday, September 10

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Trend Report
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LA Lakers @ Houston
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of LA Lakers's last 11 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games

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**Udog** · 09-10-2020, 12:50 PM

Game 4 Odds: Lakers vs. Rockets
Michael Crosson

The second round of the NBA Playoffs in the Western Conference will continue Thursday as the No. 4 Houston Rockets look to bounce back in Game 4 against the top-seeded Los Angeles Lakers.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Western Conference Game 4
Second Round: Lakers lead 2-1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Thursday, Sept. 10, 2020
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

LeBron James scored 36 points in Game 3 and the L.A. Lakers used that effort to take a 2-1 series lead over the Houston Rockets. (AP)

Line Movements

After winning and covering in back-to-back contests to take a 2-1 series lead, Vegas has the Los Angeles Lakers listed as five-point favorites heading into Game 4 of this seven-game series as Frank Vogel’s crew will look to earn a commanding two-game advantage over the Rockets on Thursday night.

Despite cashing ‘over’ tickets in the second game of this series (117-109 – LAL), the ‘over-under’ for this matchup has been on a steady decline since it opened at OU 227 for Game 1. The line for Thursday night’s matchup sits at the lowest total between these units all season – OU 220.

Prior to Game 2, we saw the price for Houston’s potential advancement to the Western Conference Finals climb all the way up to +180 back when the Rockets owned a 1-0 lead. That mark has fallen significantly heading into Game 4 though, as Mike D’Antoni’s team is now a +525 underdog to knock off the top-seeded Lakers, trailing now 2-1.

Spread: Los Angeles -5
Money-Line: Los Angeles -210, Houston +180
Total: 220.5
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -750 Houston +525

Game 3 Recap

Another high-quality basketball game took place between the Rockets and Lakers in the bubble on Tuesday night, as the first and fourth seeds in the Western Conference entered the final quarter of Game 3 deadlocked on the scoreboard and in the series. LeBron James finished with another jaw-dropping stat line of 36 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists in Tuesday’s contest as he became the NBA’s all-time playoff wins leader (161) – but anyone who actually watched the game will confirm that Rajon Rondo was the MVP for the Lakers in the contest.

Anthony Davis and James were rather loud in the opening two stanzas of Game 3 as the superstar-duo combined for 44 points, 9 rebounds, and 6 assists in the first half on Tuesday – but the closing minutes of the contest belonged to “Playoff Rondo” as he tallied 12 points, 5 assists, and played tremendous defense down the stretch to help secure the victory and a 2-1 lead for Los Angeles.

Following Game 1, the Lakers appeared to be lacking the depth at the guard position to keep up with the explosive scoring ability of the Rockets, but it looks like they might have found a neutralizing factor if Rondo is able to contribute similarly to the way he did on Tuesday night.

Game 3 Betting Results

Outcome: Lakers 112 Rockets 102

It was déjà vu for bettors backing the Rockets in Game 3 as the club ran out of gas in the fourth quarter. Los Angeles outscored Houston by exactly 10 points (30-20) in the final 12 minutes for the second consecutive game.

Houston was outscored 51-38 in the second-half and the offensive struggles helped 'under' bettors connect even though the 'over' appeared to be the right side in this contest.

Game: Lakers Win, Lakers Cover (-4), Under (222)
First Quarter: Rockets Win (33-32), Rockets Cover (+1), Over (57.5)
First-Half: Rockets Win (64-61), Rockets Cover (+2), Over (114)
Second-Half: Lakers Win (51-38), Lakers Cover (-4.5), Under (107.5)

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 9-7 SU, 6-10 ATS, 10-7 O/U
Playoffs: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, 7-9 O/U

It was great to see LeBron and AD finally get some help scoring the ball on Tuesday night as Kuzma and Rondo combined for 35 points off the bench in the Lakers’ crucial Game 3 victory – 20 of those points coming in the fourth quarter.

In LAL’s 112-97 loss to Houston in Game 1, Alex Caruso appeared to be the only Laker role-player with a pulse as he led his team’s non-superstars in scoring with 14 points on 57% shooting. On Tuesday, LeBron kept his team in contention during Houston’s scoring outbreaks, going for 29 points in the first half, but then we saw him turn the ball over to the hot-hands coming off the bench down the stretch as he coasted to the finish line with just five points in the fourth quarter.

The Lakers are easily the best team in the NBA when all the pieces come together for them like they did on Tuesday night. It is crucial for LAL to get serviceable play out of its role-players (especially its guards) for the remainder of this series, because we have seen what the Rockets are capable of when teams get lazy defensively against them.

Houston Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 8-10 SU, 7-11 ATS, 6-12 O/U
Playoffs: 5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS, 4-6 O/U

I am not sure who I should be mad at in the Rockets organization for this, but regardless, the Rockets’ approach on offense in this series is driving me crazy and something clearly needs to change. There is no way Houston traded away Clint Capela to the Hawks so a 25% 3-point shooter in Russell Westbrook can jack up an increased volume of longballs per game. The ex-Thunder point-guard has outshot Harden 63-55 over the course of this series and that cannot continue to happen if Houston wants to remain competitive.

What the Rockets have done with this team should inspire front offices with inferior talent-levels to engineer unique offensive schemes and ride with them, but the way Houston is currently executing its strategy is atypical for them in a playoff sense. Westbrook averaged over 38 points per game against LAL in the regular season, but the Rockets know now they are dealing with an evolutionarily advanced version of the unit as the post-season intensity continues to ramp up.

James Harden NEEDS to shoot the ball more in Game 4 for Houston – whether he is feeling it or not (4 for 9 – G3). If Westbrook continues to take more shots than Harden for the remainder of this series, you can go ahead and chalk this series up to a victory for the Lakers because that is basically Houston waving the white flag on the season.

Key Injuries

Los Angeles

SG/SF Dion Waiters: Groin - Game-time decision

Houston

SF Danuel House: Personal - Game-time decision

Tyson Chandler and Danuel House Jr. both elected to sit out during Houston’s Game 3 loss to the Lakers on Tuesday for “personal reasons,” and House Jr. is listed as questionable again for Thursday night’s matchup with the same tag. House Jr. suffered a minor face injury in the opening game of this series, but has returned to the Rockets lineup since then, leading me to believe the forward’s status is unrelated to concussion protocol etc.

If any players listed on the injury report miss Thursday night’s contest, it should not have a large impact on the final outcome of the game – likely a slight uptick in volume for Harden and Westbrook.

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Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/10

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/10

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