Announcement

**Udog** · 09-08-2020, 09:35 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Over/under win totals for NFL teams:
Arizona— 7.5
Atlanta— 7.5 (under -120)
Baltimore— 11.5 (under -140)
Buffalo— 9 (over -120)
Carolina— 5.5 (over -140)
Chicago— 8 (-135)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 188,941
Please wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Tuesday's Den: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) Southern Mississippi’s football team lost its first game last week, 32-21 to South Alabama as a 13-point home favorite; no idea what happened behind the scenes, but Jay Hopson is out as the Golden Eagles’ head coach. After one game.

12) When Freddie Freeman hit his first career grand slam Friday, it came on his 232nd career home run; only Sammy Sosa waited longer to hit his first grand slam— his first one was on his 246th career homer.

11) Jacob deGrom got 35 swings/misses from the Phillies Sunday, tied for most by any pitcher since they started keeping track of such things in 2008.

Danny Duffy (2016), Clayton Kershaw (2015) also got 35 whiffs in a game.

10) Eagles signed 41-year old Josh McCown as their emergency QB for this season; he’ll bank $204,000 for that task, all while he lives in Texas. If something happens and the Eagles need him, he’ll take a private plane to Philly; until then, he’ll participate in Zoom meetings with the Eagles’ offense and do his film study at home in the Lone Star State.

9) Toronto 12, Bronx 7— Blue Jays trailed 6-2, then scored 10 runs in the bottom of the 6th inning; they’re two games up in the battle for 2nd place in the AL East.

8) Celtics 111, Raptors 89 (Boston leads 3-2)
— Game was 62-35 at the half, so not much of a game at all.

7) Clippers 113, Nuggets 107 (LA leads 2-1)
— Clippers outscored Denver 29-19 in 4th quarter.
— Lou Williams was +20 in 28:00 off the bench.

6) Washington Redskins named Dwayne Haskins their starting QB.

5) Duke Blue Devils named Chase Brice their starting QB; the last two years, Brice was Trevor Lawrence’s backup at Clemson.

4) Josh Rosen signed on as a backup QB with Tampa Bay, where he re-unites with Byron Leftwich, who was his OC with the Arizona Cardinals.

3) When this baseball season started, no one figured that Kyle Tucker would be the Astros’ best player, but it is September 8th, and here we are. Tucker is a very good hitter.

2) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
AL East- Tampa Bay, Toronto
AL Central- Chicago, Cleveland
AL West- Oakland, Houston
AL Wild Cards- Minnesota, New York

NL East- Atlanta, Philadelphia
NL Central- Chicago, St Louis
NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
NL Wild Cards- Miami, San Francisco

1) RIP to the great Lou Brock, who passed away over the weekend; he was one of the great leadoff hitters of all time, stole over 900 bases, won two World Series rings with St Louis. He was also the all-time stolen base leader, until Rickey Henderson passed him. RIP, sir.

RIP to poker Hall of Famer Mike Sexton, a recognizable face on TV who also passed away this weekend. Sexton won a bracelet at the 1989 World Series of Poker, won over $6M in tournaments; he was one of the TV voices of poker for the last 20 years. RIP, sir.

**Udog** · 09-08-2020, 09:37 AM

NBA public betting, line movement September 8
Patrick Everson

LeBron James and the Lakers meet Jeff Green and the Rockets on Tuesday in Game 3 of the Western Conference semifinals. The SuperBook opened Los Angeles 5.5-point chalk and moved to -5.

NBA betting odds are up as the playoffs roll on with a pair of conference semifinal games on the Tuesday docket. The Los Angeles Lakers meet the Houston Rockets in a prime-time Game 3, preceded by Game 5 of the Miami Heat-Milwaukee Bucks series.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Tuesday’s matchups.

NBA line movement

After getting dumped by 15 in Game 1, the Lakers fended off the Rockets 117-109 in Game 2 to draw even in the best-of-7 series. For Game 3, Los Angeles opened as a 5.5-point favorite, the line ticked to -5 Monday morning and stuck there through Monday night at The SuperBook. The total opened at 224 and reached 225.5 in fairly short order before dialing back to 225 late Monday night.

Milwaukee lost Giannis Antetokounmpo to a sprained ankle in the first half of Sunday’s Game 4, yet stunningly avoided a series sweep. The Bucks forced overtime against the Heat and ultimately prevailed 118-115 to move within 3-1 in the best-of-7 series.

Antetokounmpo is questionable for Tuesday’s 6:30 p.m. ET start, but the line movement would indicate bettors and oddsmakers expect him to play. The SuperBook opened at Heat -3, initially moved to -3.5, then dialed down to -2 by Monday night.

NBA public betting

The Consensus, often a good indicator of public betting, is once again on the Rockets, with Houston landing 60 percent of early picks against the Lakers. Heat-Bucks was almost dead two-way late Monday evening, with a slight lean to Miami, which was grabbing 52 percent of Consensus picks.

**Udog** · 09-08-2020, 09:41 AM

705MIAMI -706 MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 13-4 ATS (8.6 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.

707LA LAKERS -708 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread in the current season.

NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, September 8

Miami @ Milwaukee

Game 705-706
September 8, 2020 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
121.861
Milwaukee
120.952
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1
226
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 3
217
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(+3); Over

LA Lakers @ Houston

Game 707-708
September 8, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
119.306
Houston
119.964
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 5
224 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+5); Under

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, September 8

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MIAMI (51 - 30) vs. MILWAUKEE (61 - 21) - 9/8/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 13-22 ATS (-11.2 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
MILWAUKEE is 99-76 ATS (+15.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 80-62 ATS (+11.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 78-61 ATS (+10.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against Central division opponents this season.
MIAMI is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 224-274 ATS (-77.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 9-5 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 9-5 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (57 - 21) vs. HOUSTON (49 - 32) - 9/8/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in road games against Pacific division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 53-36 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) when tied in a playoff series since 1996.
HOUSTON is 22-37 ATS (-18.7 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 7-6 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 9-4 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA

Tuesday, September 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Miami @ Milwaukee
Miami
Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
Milwaukee is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games at home

LA Lakers @ Houston
LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 9 of LA Lakers's last 10 games when playing on the road against Houston
LA Lakers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Houston's last 10 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 9 games at home

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**Udog** · 09-08-2020, 12:49 PM

Game 3 Odds: Lakers vs. Rockets
Michael Crosson

The 1-4 matchup in the Western Conference semifinals will continue on Tuesday from the NBA Bubble in Orlando, Florida and the winner of Game 3 will have earned either the L.A. Lakers or Houston Rockets a 2-1 series lead.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Western Conference Game 3
Second Round: Series tied 1-1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Tuesday, Sept. 8, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

The Lakers and Rockets are knotted at 1-1 after their first two games and both margins of victory came by double digits. (AP)

Line Movements

After winning and covering in their Game 2 contest to even up the series 1-1 SU and ATS, the Los Angles Lakers head into the third game of this series as five-point favorites with the public slightly leaning towards a Houston bounce-back effort on Tuesday night.

Similarly to the Lakers, the ‘under’ evened up the series with the ‘over’ on Sunday night (1-1) as Houston and Los Angeles combined for 226 points, pushing the total for the game over the line of OU 223 by just three points. The ‘over-under’ for Game 3 is set at OU 225.5 with early action coming in on the ‘over.’

James Harden and the Rockets are no strangers to cashing underdog-money line tickets like the +240 slips they cashed in their Game 1 victory this past Friday. Houston is +216 on the money line to take a 2-1 series lead over the top-seed in the West.

Spread: Los Angeles -5
Money-Line: Los Angeles -215, Houston +185
Total: 225.5
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -400 Houston +330

Game 2 Recap

No disrespect to Mike D’Antoni and his team’s center-less methodology, but the 34-point scoring spectacle displayed by Anthony Davis on Monday night should be a gameday tradition when LA and Houston meet up, because there literally isn’t a body on the floor for the Rockets capable of containing the All-Star big man and it finally showed in Game 2.

Russell Westbrook, on the other hand, was hard to watch in the second game of this matchup, as he attempted three more FGA than Harden (50%) in the contest, while barely shooting 25% from the field. Houston had been good against the Lakers this year prior to this series (2-1 SU), but mainly because of Westbrook’s explosive scoring and versatility (regular season vs HOU – 38.5 ppg.).

The Rockets scored 72 points in the second and third quarters of Game 1. I am sure they will aim to have more stanzas like that in Game 3 as Houston moves forward in this series lacking zero-confidence.

Game 2 Betting Results

The Lakers jumped out to an early lead and it appeared that bettors on L.A. were going to coast to an easy wire-to-wire victory in Game 2.

Sure enough, Houston outscored Los Angeles 41-23 in the third quarter and that effort made L.A. bettors sweat.

While the Rockets couldn't miss in the third, the fourth quarter was a different story as they were held to 17 points. Despite that outcome, the 'over' for the game still managed to sneak in.

Outcome: Lakers 117 Rockets 109

Game: Lakers Win, Lakers Cover (-5.5), Over (223)
First Quarter: Lakers Win (36-20), Lakers Cover (-2.5), Under (57.5)
First-Half: Lakers Win (67-51), Lakers Cover (-3.5), Over (114.5)
Second-Half: Rockets Win (58-50), Rockets Cover (-2.5), Push (108)

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 8-7 SU, 5-10 ATS, 10-6 O/U
Playoffs: 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS, 7-8 O/U

It was great to see LeBron look like himself again in Game 2, as King James was very close to posting an enormous triple-double in the Lakers win on Sunday, recording 28 points, 11 rebounds, and 9 assists for the Lakers.

But the spotlight managed to fall on AD again as the former-Pelican big man continues to draw the biggest height advantage he has received in matchup all year, standing five inches over the much shorter PJ Tucker.
Davis shot over 60% from the field for his second straight contest and I expect him to hit a similar clip for the remaining games in this series. Frank Vogel just needs to get him the rock more, because the 16 FGA he had in Game 1, simply isn’t enough to keep pace with the explosiveness of Houston.

Look for the Lakers to play through AD for the rest of this series and ride with his total points ‘overs’ until the Rockets find an answer on defense for him.

Houston Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 8-9 SU, 7-10 ATS, 6-11 O/U
Playoffs: 5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS, 4-5 O/U

Props to Houston for orchestrating a unique strategy to potentially pave its way to the NBA Finals through the star-packed Western Conference. And the club is doing so despite lacking the talent-level of teams like the Lakers and Clippers, and really sticking to it no matter the circumstances.

The Rockets looked like they were untouchable in the third quarter of Game 1 and were eyeing a 2-0 series lead after outscoring the Lakers 42-23 in the period, but then just completely ran out of the steam as Houston scored just 17 points fourth quarter on 2 of 12 from 3-point range.

Chef Harden and the rest of his guys are going to continue to put up 3-pointers at an incredible rate for the rest of this series because that is what they were designed to do. All LAL can do on defense is just put a hand up and hope they miss.

Key Injuries

Los Angeles

SG Dion Waiters: Groin - Game Time Decision
PF Anthony Davis: Finger - Game Time Decision
C JaVale McGee: Ankle - Game Time Decision
SF LeBron James: Groin - Game Time Decision

Houston

None

Surprised to see LeBron and Davis listed on the Lakers’ injury report with a finger/groin issues and not sore backs after carrying LA to its first victory in the Western Conference Semi’s on Sunday. Neither of the superstar’s injuries are considered serious enough to put their status for Game 2 in jeopardy.

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Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/8

Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/8

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