Announcement

**Udog** · 09-05-2020, 08:28 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

— Miami 115, Milwaukee 100— Heat grab 3-0 series lead.
— Houston 112, LA Lakers 97— Rockets take series opener.
— Dallas 5, Colorado 4 (OT)— Game 7 in OT is always highly dramatic.
— Cam Newton will be New England’s starting QB.
— Orioles split a twinbill with Bronx, ending a 19-game losing skid to their division rivals.
— Friday was 27th anniversary of Jim Abbott’s no-hitter; he had a hole-in-one Friday, 27 years later. The guy has one hand, an amazing athlete.

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 187,347
Please wear a mask when you go out.

**********

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Wrapping up a fun summer night

13) We start today with a movie review…….

The Way Back stars Ben Affleck as a guy (Jack Cunningham) who was a high school basketball star who walked away from the game rather than play in college; he got married, had a kid, but then his 8-year old son died of cancer, and he developed a drinking problem that ruined his marriage.

The movie starts with people from his old high school asking Jack Cunningham to come back to his old school to coach the basketball team; the previous coach had fallen ill. Reluctant at first, he takes the job and after a slow start, the team begins to turn it around.

This is a good movie because there is some laughter and some darkness; Jack Cunningham not only drinks a lot, he curses even more, much to the chagrin of the team’s chaplain. Basketball scenes in this movie are very well done.

This movie is making the rounds on HBO this month; it is worth your time.

12) Watching this movie, I was reminded that I once rebounded for a guy who made 126 foul shots in a row- seriously, he did.

I was student manager of our basketball team in college; rebounding for guys was part of my job, actually one of the best parts, but not when a guy makes 126 in a row and won’t stop until he misses one. I was hungry and wanted to go have dinner; tried throwing him a couple bad passes to get him off his mark, but that didn’t work.

Very impressive display of shooting by a guy who never played a significant minute for us; all he could do was shoot. We had a really good team, which made my job a lot more fun.

11) This week the Braves played in Fenway Park:
— Tuesday, Marcell Ozuna hit three homers.
— Wednesday, Adam Duvall hit three homers.

I was really surprised by this, but this was the first time EVER that teammates hit 3+ homers in consecutive games.

10) Defending World Series champion Washington Nationals are 12-23 this year, are headed nowhere; last year, they were 19-31 after 50 games, but they had a whole summer to bounce back, plus they had Rendon and a healthy Strasburg.

You can start to sense that reality has set in for a few of these terrible teams (Nationals, Red Sox, Pirates, Angels); they don’t have enough pitching to compete in such a compressed season. Will be interesting to see how many changes teams make this winter.

9) Arizona Diamondbacks were the last team to play an extra inning game under the new rules; they lost to the Dodgers in extra frames Wednesday night.

Last two years, with the new rule being used in the minor leagues, 73% of extra inning games ended after the first extra inning, whether it be the 8th or 10th inning. The two years before that, only 45% of extra inning games had ended in the first extra frame.

8) As of Wednesday night, seven major league teams still didn’t have a sacrifice bunt this season. One of the basic tenets of the analytics movements is not to make an out on purpose, and with pitchers not batting anymore, that is becoming the norm.

7) Mets have been outscored 51-28 in the first two innings of games this season.

6) Unusual stat; since 2014, New Orleans Saints are 58-38 SU in regular season games, but only 15-25-1 ATS as a home favorite. I would’ve thought they fared better at home.

5) Bronx Bombers are 20-16 this year; 2-8 vs Tampa Bay, 3-3 against the Mets, 15-5 against everyone else. Lot of their games with the Mets were really interesting; all six were decided by 3 or fewer runs.

4) South Alabama 29, Southern Miss 21:
— Jaguars were 12.5-point underdogs; it was their first road win in three years.
— USA quarterback Desmond Trotter is Ozzie Newsome’s grandson.
— Frank Gore Jr is a freshman RB for USM; his dad is still playing in the NFL.

3) Raptors 104, Celtics 103 (Boston leads 2-1)
— OG Anunoby drained a 3 at the buzzer to keep the series interesting.
— Raptors were down 10 at the half; huge win for them.
— Toronto was +12 with Siakam in the game; minus-11 in the 10:00 he sat out.
— Jayson Tatum was only 5-18 from the floor.

2) Clippers 120, Nuggets 97 (LA leads 1-0)
— Nuggets haven’t recovered from the Utah series yet.
— Leonard scored 29 points in 32:00 for the Clippers.
— Clippers shot 57% from the floor, unusually good for an NBA game.

1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
AL East- Tampa Bay, NY/Tor
AL Central- Chicago, Clev/Minn
AL West- Oakland, Houston
AL Wild Cards- Minn/Clev, Tor/NY

NL East- Atlanta, Philadelphia
NL Central- Chicago, Mil/StL
NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
NL Wild Cards- Miami, Mil/StL

**Udog** · 09-05-2020, 08:30 AM

NBA public betting, line movement September 5
Patrick Everson

Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers look to take a 2-0 lead on the Nuggets in a Saturday night prime-time game. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Los Angeles -8.5 and moved to -9 Friday.

NBA betting odds are up and getting action for a couple of conference semifinal playoff games, on a super Saturday of sports. The Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets tangle in a prime-time Game 2, preceded by the Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics in Game 4.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Saturday’s matchups.

NBA line movement

The Clippers pounded the weary Nuggets 120-97 in Game 1 Thursday, easily cashing as 9.5-point favorites. The SuperBook opened the Clippers -8.5 for a 9 p.m. ET Game 2, and the line ticked up to -9 Friday afternoon.

Meanwhile, defending NBA champion Toronto pulled off a shocking – and absolutely necessary – Game 3 win over Boston on Thursday to pull within 2-1 in the series. Trailing 103-101 with 0.5 seconds left, the Raptors executed a perfect inbound pass from Kyle Lowry to OG Anunoby, who splashed a 3-pointer for a 104-103 victory.

The Raptors opened -1.5 for Game 4 and ticked to -1 Friday afternoon, for a 6:30 p.m. ET start.

NBA public betting

The Consensus indicated early two-way play but a public lean toward the long underdog and the short underdog. As of late Friday night, the Nuggets were landing 56 percent of Consensus picks against the Clippers, and the Celtics were drawing 59 percent of picks against the Raptors.

**Udog** · 09-05-2020, 08:34 AM

741TORONTO -742 BOSTON
BOSTON is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game in the current season.

741TORONTO -742 BOSTON
TORONTO is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in road games after a win by 6 points or less in the current season.

743DENVER -744 LA CLIPPERS
LA CLIPPERS are 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season in the current season.

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, September 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (58 - 21) vs. BOSTON (54 - 25) - 9/5/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 227-279 ATS (-79.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
BOSTON is 46-29 ATS (+14.1 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
BOSTON is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after a division game this season.
BOSTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders this season.
BOSTON is 156-115 ATS (+29.5 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1996.
BOSTON is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 35-24 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
TORONTO is 43-34 ATS (+5.6 Units) in all games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 10-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 9-6 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (50 - 31) vs. LA CLIPPERS (54 - 25) - 9/5/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 45-33 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 38-29 ATS (+6.1 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 38-27 ATS (+8.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 37-28 ATS (+6.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 38-28 ATS (+7.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games when leading in a playoff series since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 6-5 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 6-5 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA

Saturday, September 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Toronto @ Boston
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games
Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

Denver @ LA Clippers
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Denver's last 16 games
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Clippers
LA Clippers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Clippers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-05-2020, 09:09 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, September 5

Toronto @ Boston

Game 741-742
September 5, 2020 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
124.925
Boston
128.780
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 4
211
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 1
214
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(+1); Under

Denver @ LA Clippers

Game 743-744
September 5, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
114.419
LA Clippers
128.525
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 14
235
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 9
222 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(-9); Over

**Udog** · 09-05-2020, 09:53 AM

Game 2 Odds: Nuggets vs. Clippers
Michael Crosson

The second round of the NBA Playoffs in the Western Conference will continue Saturday as the No. 3 Denver Nuggets will look to bounce back in Game 2 against the No. 2 Los Angeles Clippers.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Western Conference Game 2
Second Round: Clippers lead series 1-0
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Saturday, Sept. 5, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

The L.A. Clippers connected on 57 percent of their shots in Game 1 en route to an easy double-digit victory over the Nuggets. (AP)

Line Movements

Despite seeing the Clippers absolutely drop the hammer on Denver in Game 1, the oddsmakers have decided to stick to their guns on the spread for this Game 2 bout, rolling out the line of Los Angeles -9 for the second straight contest.

‘Over’ bettors were sitting pretty following the first quarter of Game 1, as the Nuggets and Clippers ran up a tally of 62 points in the first stanza of the contest, but Denver scored just 36 points in the 2nd and 3rd periods combined, causing the first playoff matchup between these teams to fall under the total (OU 223).

The ‘over-under’ for Game 2 has fallen two points, down to OU 221.5 for Saturday’s tilt.

In the Clippers’ first playoff series with the Mavericks, they traded off victories with Luka Doncic and company for the first four contests of the series (split 2-2), before inevitably running away with the last two games of the bout once Porzingis left the bubble with an injury.

The Nuggets can cash as +320 underdogs to trade-off victories with Clippers in Game 2 on Saturday night.

Spread: Los Angeles -9
Money-Line: Los Angeles -400 Denver +320
Total: 223
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -10000, Denver +2000

Game 1 Recap

It looked like the Nuggets might have had something up their sleeve for the Clippers this whole time when Jerami Grant came out in the first quarter of Game 1 burying his first three shots from downtown and led his team to a 31-31 tie heading into the second period.

That was short-lived though, as Mike Malone’s team was outscored by Kawhi Leonard and company 89-66 for the remaining three stanzas.

Paul George’s playoff struggles continued on Thursday night as he went 2 for 7 from 3-point land and recorded the lowest FG% out of the LAC starters (46%), but his services weren’t necessarily needed anyway with the Claw going for a very casual 29 points on 75% shooting in the Clippers’ 120-97 victory.

A lot needs to change heading into Game 2 for the team from the mile-high city. Let’s see if the Nuggets can actually put together four quality quarters of basketball on Saturday night, like the first stanza of their Game 1 loss.

Game 1 Betting Results

As mentioned above, the opening matchup saw both teams come out blazing and the pair were tied at 31-31 after the first quarter before the Clippers surged ahead with a 38-20 second quarter.

Denver's woeful shooting continued in the third quarter, finishing with just 16 points. The pair did combined for 59 in the fourth quarter but the struggles in the third cost 'over' bettors from cashing all of their wagers.

Outcome: 120-97

Game: Clippers Win, Clippers Cover (-9.5), Under (223.5)
First Quarter: Tied (31-31), Nuggets Cover (+3), Over (57)
First-Half: Clippers Win (69-51), Clippers Cover (-5.5), Over (114)
Second-Half: Clippers Win (51-47), Clippers Cover (-0.5), Under (109.5)

Denver Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 7-9 SU, 9-7 ATS, 13-3 O/U
Playoffs: 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U

The Nuggets needed every bucket of Jamal Murray’s 40+ points per game in Games 4-7 of their opening round series to put away the sixth-seeded Jazz, and 12 points on 33% shooting just simply isn’t going to cut it against an even tougher opponent.

I’m not blaming the Denver loss on Murray not going off for 40 points, but it was still tough for the Nuggets to keep up with the offensive firepower of Donovan Mitchell last round, even with Jamal scoring at that rate he scored at. It is pretty simple for the Nuggets at this point.

Let Jokic and Murray try to heat up, because they are going to need something similar to Jamal’s explosions in the first round to get themselves back in this one.

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 10-5 SU, 11-4 ATS, 10-5 O/U
Playoffs: 5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 O/U

I am personally not picking a side between the Nuggets and Clippers on Saturday night, but not because I have lost faith in Doc Rivers’ team or am worried about them whatsoever – just because they tend to take their foot off the gas defensively a little bit when times are comfortable; and I think there is a good chance Saturday could be one of those times.

It also doesn’t feel safe to back the Clippers at this large of a spread when PG13 is shooting with the lack of efficiency he has shot with lately.

Not going to fade the Clippers in Game 2. Just not going to back them to cover in as second straight contest either.

Key Injuries

Denver

SF Vlatko Cancar: Foot - Game Time Decision
SF Will Barton: Knee - Out

Los Angeles

None

As if the Clippers didn’t already have the upper-hand heading into this series, they got point-guard, Pat Beverley, back from injury in Game 1 and it seemed to send them over the edge offensively early, as Los Angeles put up 69 first half points.

Aside from Cancar and Barton, who have missed the majority of these playoffs, Denver and Los Angles both head into Game 2 of the Western Conference Semi’s boasting relatively clean slates on the injury report.

Announcement

Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/5

Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/5

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment