Announcement

**Udog** · 09-04-2020, 08:59 AM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Teams that were worst in college football in turnover margin last year:
-15— Akron, New Mexico, New Mexico State
-13— Rutgers, NC State
-12— Kansas
-11— Central Michigan, Colorado State, Duke, Hawai’i, Southern Miss
-10— Northwestern, USC

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 186,392
Please wear a mask when you go out.

**********

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Wrapping up a fun summer night

13) We start today with a movie review…….

The Way Back stars Ben Affleck as a guy (Jack Cunningham) who was a high school basketball star who walked away from the game rather than play in college; he got married, had a kid, but then his 8-year old son died of cancer, and he developed a drinking problem that ruined his marriage.

The movie starts with people from his old high school asking Jack Cunningham to come back to his old school to coach the basketball team; the previous coach had fallen ill. Reluctant at first, he takes the job and after a slow start, the team begins to turn it around.

This is a good movie because there is some laughter and some darkness; Jack Cunningham not only drinks a lot, he curses even more, much to the chagrin of the team’s chaplain. Basketball scenes in this movie are very well done.

This movie is making the rounds on HBO this month; it is worth your time.

12) Watching this movie, I was reminded that I once rebounded for a guy who made 126 foul shots in a row- seriously, he did.

I was student manager of our basketball team in college; rebounding for guys was part of my job, actually one of the best parts, but not when a guy makes 126 in a row and won’t stop until he misses one. I was hungry and wanted to go have dinner; tried throwing him a couple bad passes to get him off his mark, but that didn’t work.

Very impressive display of shooting by a guy who never played a significant minute for us; all he could do was shoot. We had a really good team, which made my job a lot more fun.

11) This week the Braves played in Fenway Park:
— Tuesday, Marcell Ozuna hit three homers.
— Wednesday, Adam Duvall hit three homers.

I was really surprised by this, but this was the first time EVER that teammates hit 3+ homers in consecutive games.

10) Defending World Series champion Washington Nationals are 12-23 this year, are headed nowhere; last year, they were 19-31 after 50 games, but they had a whole summer to bounce back, plus they had Rendon and a healthy Strasburg.

You can start to sense that reality has set in for a few of these terrible teams (Nationals, Red Sox, Pirates, Angels); they don’t have enough pitching to compete in such a compressed season. Will be interesting to see how many changes teams make this winter.

9) Arizona Diamondbacks were the last team to play an extra inning game under the new rules; they lost to the Dodgers in extra frames Wednesday night.

Last two years, with the new rule being used in the minor leagues, 73% of extra inning games ended after the first extra inning, whether it be the 8th or 10th inning. The two years before that, only 45% of extra inning games had ended in the first extra frame.

8) As of Wednesday night, seven major league teams still didn’t have a sacrifice bunt this season. One of the basic tenets of the analytics movements is not to make an out on purpose, and with pitchers not batting anymore, that is becoming the norm.

7) Mets have been outscored 51-28 in the first two innings of games this season.

6) Unusual stat; since 2014, New Orleans Saints are 58-38 SU in regular season games, but only 15-25-1 ATS as a home favorite. I would’ve thought they fared better at home.

5) Bronx Bombers are 20-16 this year; 2-8 vs Tampa Bay, 3-3 against the Mets, 15-5 against everyone else. Lot of their games with the Mets were really interesting; all six were decided by 3 or fewer runs.

4) South Alabama 29, Southern Miss 21:
— Jaguars were 12.5-point underdogs; it was their first road win in three years.
— USA quarterback Desmond Trotter is Ozzie Newsome’s grandson.
— Frank Gore Jr is a freshman RB for USM; his dad is still playing in the NFL.

3) Raptors 104, Celtics 103 (Boston leads 2-1)
— OG Anunoby drained a 3 at the buzzer to keep the series interesting.
— Raptors were down 10 at the half; huge win for them.
— Toronto was +12 with Siakam in the game; minus-11 in the 10:00 he sat out.
— Jayson Tatum was only 5-18 from the floor.

2) Clippers 120, Nuggets 97 (LA leads 1-0)
— Nuggets haven’t recovered from the Utah series yet.
— Leonard scored 29 points in 32:00 for the Clippers.
— Clippers shot 57% from the floor, unusually good for an NBA game.

1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
AL East- Tampa Bay, NY/Tor
AL Central- Chicago, Cleveland
AL West- Oakland, Houston
AL Wild Cards- Minnesota, Tor/NY

NL East- Atlanta, Philadelphia
NL Central- Chicago, St Louis
NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
NL Wild Cards- Miami, Colorado

**Udog** · 09-04-2020, 09:01 AM

NBA public betting, line movement September 4
Patrick Everson

Anthony Davis and James Harden square off when the Lakers and Rockets meet Friday in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals. The SuperBook at Westgate has the Lakers 6-point favorites.

NBA betting odds are up and getting action for a couple of big conference semifinal playoff games, as both No. 1 seeds are on the court Friday. The well-rested Los Angeles Lakers open their series against the Houston Rockets, and the Milwaukee Bucks look to climb back into their series against the Miami Heat.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s matchups. Covers will update this action report with NBA sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the day.

NBA line movement

Houston fended off Oklahoma City in seven games, capped by a 104-102 victory Wednesday. Los Angeles, meanwhile, has been resting since Saturday, after beating Portland 131-122 to win that series 4-1. The SuperBook opened the Lakers -6.5 for Friday’s 9 p.m. ET tipoff, and the line moved to 6 late Thursday morning.

The Rockets-Lakers total opened 226.5 and is down a point to 225.5.

Miami got a pair of Jimmy Butler free throws with no time on the clock to win Game 2 116-114 and take a 2-0 series lead over Milwaukee. The Bucks opened -5 at The SuperBook for a 6:30 p.m. ET Game 3 start, and the total opened at 223.5. Both the point spread and total were stable as of late Thursday night.

NBA public betting

Although the Rockets are surely weary, early bettors at The SuperBook like the underdog against LeBron James and Co.

“As of now, all the liability we have is on the Rockets,” SuperBook supervisor Cameron Coombs said Thursday night.

The Consensus has a Houston lean, as well, with 57 percent of early picks taking the Rockets to cover the spread. Likewise, the streaking Heat – 6-0 SU and ATS in the postseason – were landing 57 percent of Consensus picks, as of late Thursday night.

**Udog** · 09-04-2020, 09:06 AM

737MILWAUKEE -738 MIAMI
MILWAUKEE is 36-16 ATS (18.4 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite in the last 3 seasons.

739HOUSTON -740 LA LAKERS
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders in the current season.

739HOUSTON -740 LA LAKERS
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game in the current season.

NBA
Dunkel

Friday, September 4

Milwaukee @ Miami

Game 737-738
September 4, 2020 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
120.120
Miami
122.693
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 2
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 5
223 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+5); Under

Houston @ LA Lakers

Game 739-740
September 4, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
112.644
LA Lakers
126.626
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 14
230
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 6 1/2
224 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-6 1/2); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, September 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MILWAUKEE (60 - 20) vs. MIAMI (50 - 29) - 9/4/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 223-273 ATS (-77.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against Central division opponents this season.
MILWAUKEE is 98-75 ATS (+15.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 82-63 ATS (+12.7 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 87-66 ATS (+14.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games after allowing 115 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 79-61 ATS (+11.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 77-60 ATS (+11.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 12-21 ATS (-11.1 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 8-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 8-4 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (48 - 31) vs. LA LAKERS (56 - 20) - 9/4/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games against Pacific division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders this season.
HOUSTON is 52-35 ATS (+13.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 6-5 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 8-3 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA

Friday, September 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Milwaukee @ Miami
Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games on the road
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

Houston @ LA Lakers
Houston
Houston is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Lakers's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
LA Lakers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-04-2020, 10:51 AM

Game 3 Odds: Bucks vs. Heat
Kevin Rogers

The Heat improved to 6-0 in the NBA Bubble on Wednesday as it defeated the top-seeded Bucks in Game 2 of their Eastern Conference semifinal matchup.

Milwaukee sits a 2-0 hole against Miami as the Bucks are favored once again in Game 3 looking to avoid a 3-0 series deficit.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Eastern Conference Game 3
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Friday, Sep. 4, 2020
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

Line Movements

In spite of losing the first two games of this series, the Bucks are favored in Game 3. Milwaukee is listed as the "road" team in the bubble, but the Bucks are a favorite for the 19th time in the last playoff 23 games since 2019. The Bucks own an impressive 13-0-1 ATS record in their last 13 postseason wins, but the Heat are a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS in the playoffs so far.

Spread: Milwaukee -5
Money-Line: Milwaukee -210 Miami +180
Total: 223.5
Updated Series Price: Miami -165, Milwaukee +145

Game 2 Recap

The Heat reversed course from a slow start in Game 1 in which they trailed by 11 points after the first quarter to grab a nine-point advantage following the first 12 minutes in Game 2. Miami was in control for most of Game 2 before Milwaukee roared back in the final minute to tie the game.

The Bucks received a huge break on a foul call charged to Heat guard Goran Dragic on a three-point attempt from Milwaukee's Khris Middleton in the final seconds. Middleton drilled all three free throws to tie the game at 114-114, but the Heat lucked out on their next (and final) possession when Bucks' star Giannis Antetokounmpo fouled Miami's Jimmy Butler on a jump shot. Butler hit both free throws to give Miami the victory as the Heat cashed not only in the full game, but also in the first quarter and first half.

Game 2 Betting Results

Outcome: Heat 116 Bucks 114

Game: Heat Win, Heat Cover (+5.5), Over 223.5
First Quarter: Heat Win (38-29), Heat Cover (+2.5), Over 57.5
First-Half: Heat Win (66-60), Heat Cover (+3.5), Over 114.5
Second-Half: Bucks Win (54-50), Heat Cover (+6.5), Under 111

Bucks Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 7-8 SU, 6-8-1 ATS, 8-6-1 O/U
Playoffs: 4-3 SU, 3-3-1 ATS, 3-3-1 O/U

The Bucks shot the ball well in Game 1 from the floor (49% and 16-of-35 from three-point range), but missed the freebies when it mattered most by going 14-of-26 from the free throw line in an 11-point loss. Milwaukee started fast and faded in the second half by scoring only 41 points, but the Bucks outscored the Heat in the second half of a Game 2 by a 54-50 margin.

Milwaukee shot better from the foul line in Game 2 by going 33-of-40 from the charity stripe, but the Bucks were held to 7-of-25 shooting from three-point range with three of those triples coming from big man Brook Lopez. Antetokounmpo led the Bucks with 29 points, while Eric Bledsoe returned from injury to chip in 16 points, but the Bucks have now lost four of five meetings with the Heat this season.

Heat Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS, 6-8 O/U
Playoffs: 6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS, 2-4 O/U

After Butler torched the Bucks for 40 points in the series opener, the former Marquette standout scored only 13 points (two coming on the final free throws) in the Game 2 victory. The Heat were carried by six other players who scored in double-figures, led by Dragic's 23 points, as the guard was one of five Miami players to knock down at least three treys on Wednesday.

Miami is the only team to win and cover in each of its first six playoff games (Boston failed to cash in Game 4 against Philadelphia in the first round). The Heat won and cashed in their first bubble game against the Nuggets, but then posted a 2-5 ATS mark in their final seven seeding contests before this hot streak in the playoffs.

The last time the Heat won their first six games in a postseason came back in 2014, the last season of the "Big Three" era showcasing LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. That was the only time during the "Big Three" reign from 2010-14 that Miami ever won six consecutive playoff games.

Key Injuries

Milwaukee

None

Miami

SF-Andre Iguodala: Ankle, Questionable

Iguodala sustained a right ankle sprain late in the third quarter of Game 2. The veteran swingman scored four points in 11 minutes on Wednesday and is listed as questionable for Game 3.

**Udog** · 09-04-2020, 10:55 AM

Game 1 Odds: Rockets vs. Lakers
Michael Crosson

Chris Paul and Thunder left everything on the floor at the HP Field House in Orlando during their Game 7 thriller with Houston to conclude the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs, but ultimately the Rockets were able to escape with a 104-102 victory behind some late-game defensive heroics from James Harden to cap off their series finale in the bubble.

Los Angeles has fallen victim to the media’s “panic button” consistently throughout the course of the league’s restart as Lakers were the lowest-scoring team in the NBA’s eight re-seeding games, then dropped their playoff opener to the Blazers by failing to put up 95 points in their Game 1 loss.

LeBron got his guys playing like the championship-caliber team they were designed to be for the remainder of the series though, rattling off four straight wins to put away Lillard-less Portland.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Western Conference Game 1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Friday, Sept. 4, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Russell Westbrook and the Rockets posted a 2-1 regular season record against the Lakers. (AP)

Western Conference Semifinal Schedule

All games to be played on one day of rest

Game 1 - Friday, Sept. 4
Game 2 - Sunday, Sept. 6
Game 3 - Tuesday, Sept. 8
Game 4 - Thursday, Sept. 10
Game 5 - Saturday, Sept. 12
Game 6 - Monday, Sept. 14
Game 7 - Wednesday, Sept. 16

Betting Odds - Rockets vs. Lakers

The Lakers open Game 1 of this Western Conference Semi-Finals matchup as a seven-point favorite over the Rockets, which is the largest margin of victory we have seen the oddsmakers predict in a matchup between Houston and LA this year.

The ‘over-under’ for this contest has been set at the lowest total we have seen for a Rockets-Lakers game all year (OU 226.5), as Vegas is clearly expecting these teams to ramp up the intensity on defense for Game 1 of their playoff series, after scoring an average of 235.5 points per game in their matchups prior to the bubble.

Houston is 2-1 SU against the Lakers this season, yet still sit as +240 underdogs to knock of the top-seed in the West on Friday night.

Spread: Los Angeles -7
Money-Line: Los Angeles -290 Houston +245
Total: 226.5
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -400, Houston +320

Rockets vs. Lakers Head-to-Head

2019-20 Regular Season

Aug. 6, 2020: Houston (-3.5) 113 vs. Los Angeles 97, Under 227.5
Feb. 6, 2020: Houston (+6.5) 121 at Los Angeles 111, Under 239.5
Jan. 18, 2020: Los Angeles (+3.5) 124 at Houston 115, Over 235

The Rockets have technically won two of their three matchups with the LAL this season, but it’s important to take that with a grain of salt, as LeBron James and Anthony Davis each missed a game against Houston this year, dramatically changing the landscape of each contest.

In the only “full-strength” matchup between Houston and LAL this year, the Rockets won 121-111 cashing ‘under’ tickets (OU 239.5), but it was no thanks to Harden, as he went 3-of-10 shooting and just under 17% from downtown in the victory.

Instead, the spotlight shined on Russell Westbrook as he went for 41 points on over 60% shooting, while attempting just two 3-pointers in the win. The concern regarding the Lakers all year has revolved around how they will attack a dominant scoring-backcourt defensively in a playoff series, after putting all of their eggs in Lebron and AD’s baskets.

This series against the Rockets should serve as a great test for LAL’s defensive limits.

Houston Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 8-7 SU, 7-8 ATS, 5-10 O/U
Playoffs: 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U

Westbrook has been licking his chops all year for this series against the Lakers, as it might become apparent very soon why Houston was willing to give up so much to acquire the former-MVP from the Thunder this past off-season.

Russ has averaged 38 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 6 assists per game against the Lakers this year, and while some of that can be attributed to LeBron and AD sitting out meaningless regular season games, a good portion of it can also be attributed to the LAL’s lack of defensive depth in its backcourt.

Harden has been cold shooting the ball in his past few games for Houston, going 1 for 9 from deep on 26.7% total shooting in the Rockets Game 7 win.

I expect that to lead to Houston into going to Westbrook early and often in this series, exposing the Lakers guard tandem defensively like they did in the regular season.

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 7-6 SU, 4-9 ATS, 9-5 O/U
Playoffs: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 6-7 O/U

Things are not all peaches and daisies for Frank Vogel’s team, as the Lakers essentially went 2-1 in their series with the eighth-seeded Blazers, considering Damian Lillard was injured in Game 4, leading to an LA cakewalk in the final two games following his departure from the bubble.

When this “Super-Team” was assembled, there were concerns about the Lakers lack of scoring depth beyond their superstars and rightfully so, as they have straight-up not shot the ball well in the HP Field House, a whopping average of 43.8% in the bubble (FG% - 19th out of 22 following NBA restart).

Where they are lacking on offense though, has been made up for on the defensive side of the ball as the Lakers have ranked 4th in defensive rating in the playoffs so far this year (104.1).

The Rockets are able to shoot through good perimeter defense on their good days though, unlike the Lillard-less Blazers, so Los Angeles is going to have to figure out a way to kick its offense into high-gear for this series, because there is no doubt Houston is going to light up the scoreboard for the next week or so.

Key Injuries

Houston

SF Luc Mbah a Moute: Knee - Game Time Decision

Los Angeles

PG Rajon Rondo: Back - Game Time Decision

Rajon Rondo is yet to suit up for the Lakers in the Orlando bubble, but Vogel said on Wednesday he is “hopeful” to get the point-guard back for LA’s Game 1 tilt with the Rockets, which would give LeBron and company some much needed depth at the guard position if he is able to return to the lineup on Friday.

Announcement

Friday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/4

Friday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/4

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment