Announcement

**Udog** · 09-03-2020, 10:00 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Teams that led college football in turnover margin last year:
+21— Florida Atlantic
+19— San Diego State
+18— Alabama
+17— Notre Dame
+16— Oregon
+15— Clemson, Appalachian State

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 184,974
Please wear a mask when you go out.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Nobody asked me, but……..

13) We start today with a story…….

Way back in January 1996, I’m an assistant basketball coach at Schenectady HS; our team was young but rapidly improving. We’re playing at home, but we lose a close game when a charge is called on our best player at a pivotal point in the game. Sketchy call.

Ref who made the call was a vice-principal at the school where our best player used to attend, before he transferred to Schenectady after 8th grade. Go figure.

After the game, I go out to dinner at Across the Street Pub, which was on my way home; first two people I see when I walk in the door? That ref and an assistant coach from the team we just lost to, yukking it up at the bar. I nod hello and go to a table in the back.

We only lost two more games that season, lost in the sectional final in 1997, then won the state title in 1998. Sometimes it takes difficult learning experiences for a team to come together, and that loss was one of ours.

12) One of the cool things about college sports is that different schools excel at different sports; for instance, Vanderbilt usually sucks at football, but they’re a national power in baseball.

Clemson is one of the best football programs in the country, but they’ve never won the ACC basketball tournament.

11) QB Jamie Newman transferred from Wake Forest to Georgia last winter, but now he’s opted out of playing this season and will prepare for the 2021 NFL Draft, leaving USC JT Daniels as the Dawgs’ new #1 signal caller.

Wake Forest was 8-5 last year; Newman would’ve been a big addition for the Dawgs.

10) Indians 5, Royals 0— Triston McKenzie tossed six innings of shutout ball on his 23rd birthday, as Cleveland improved to 23-14.

9) Braves 7, Red Sox 5— Adam Duvall homered three times for Atlanta.

8) Rockies 9, Giants 6— San Francisco scored 29 runs in two games in Denver, the most runs they’ve scored in consecutive games since 1993.

7) Free agent RB Leonard Fournette signed on with the Tampa Bay Bucs.

6) Disappointed to hear that Wednesday was Bert Blyleven’s last game as a TV analyst for the Minnesota Twins; a Hall of Fame pitcher, Blyleven has been a TV analyst for the last 25 years. He will continue working as a special assistant for the Twins.

5) Heat 116, Bucks 114 (Miami leads 2-0)
— Jimmy Butler made two foul shots with 0:00 left for the win.
— Tyler Herro scored 17 points off the bench for Miami.
— Miami had blown a 6-point lead with 0:27 left.

4) Rockets 104, Thunder 102 (Houston wins 4-3)
— Houston had balanced scoring; four guys scored between 17-21 points.
— Both teams played only eight guys.
— Chris Paul had 19 points, 11 rebounds, 12 assists in a losing cause.

3) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
AL East- Tampa Bay, New York
AL Central- Chicago, Cleveland
AL West- Oakland, Houston
AL Wild Cards- Minnesota, Toronto

NL East- Atlanta, Philadelphia
NL Central- Chicago, St Louis
NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
NL Wild Cards- Miami, Colorado

2) RIP to the great pitcher Tom Seaver, 75, who passed away this week; one of the best pitchers I’ve ever seen, Seaver won 311 big league games, led the league in strikeouts five times. RIP, sir.

1) If you’ve watched much poker on TV, you’ve seen Mike Sexton, who has done World Poker Tour events on TV for years, with Vince Van Patten. Mike Sexton is really sick these days, and the prognosis isn’t good. We send our prayers out to him.

This, from actress/poker player Jennifer Tilly:
“There is a beautiful story about Mike in @nolandalla’s book “One of a Kind” Stu Ungar was on the skids & couldn’t afford to buy his daughter school books or clothes. Mike sent a limo over with his credit card and told him take your kid out shopping, get her whatever she needs.”

We’re praying for an ace on the river, Mike.

**Udog** · 09-03-2020, 10:03 AM

NBA public betting, line movement September 3
Patrick Everson

Kawhi Leonard and Jamal Murray collide when the Clippers face the Nuggets in Thursday's Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals. The SuperBook has Los Angeles an 8.5-point favorite.

NBA betting odds are on the board and getting attention for a pair of conference semifinal playoff games Thursday night. The Denver Nuggets, fresh off an exhilarating series against the Utah Jazz, meet the Los Angeles Clippers in prime time, preceded by Game 3 of the Toronto Raptors-Boston Celtics series.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s matchups.

NBA line movement

Denver rallied from a 3-1 series deficit to Utah, winning the final three games to advance to the Western Conference semis. The Nuggets finished with an 80-78 victory in Game 7 Tuesday night. Meanwhile, Los Angeles went six games with Dallas, capped by a 111-97 win Sunday. The SuperBook opened the Clippers -8 and moved to -8.5 by Wednesday afternoon for Thursday’s 9 p.m. ET tipoff.

Defending NBA champion Toronto is already on the ropes in the Eastern Conference semis, trailing Boston 2-0 after a 102-99 loss Tuesday. The Raptors opened -1 at The SuperBook for Game 3, then the game spent a couple of hours at pick ‘em Wednesday before going back to Toronto -1 for a 6:30 p.m. ET start.

NBA public betting

"We're getting early bets on the Raptors -1, some parlay money on the Over, but not a lot," Osterman said of action on the first game, before moving on to the nightcap. "The Clippers are getting bet pretty well on the moneyline. Not much on anything else yet."

The Consensus, often indicative of where the public money is flowing, shows some early belief in the underdog Nuggets to cover the spread. As of Wednesday night, Denver was landing 60 percent of Consensus picks against L.A., while desperate Toronto was drawing 61 percent of early picks against Boston.

**Udog** · 09-03-2020, 10:07 AM

733TORONTO -734 BOSTON
BOSTON is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) in road games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days in the current season.

735DENVER -736 LA CLIPPERS
LA CLIPPERS are 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season in the current season.

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, September 3

Toronto @ Boston

Game 733-734
September 3, 2020 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
125.405
Boston
128.300
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 3
220
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 1
214
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(+1); Over

Denver @ LA Clippers

Game 735-736
September 3, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
121.779
LA Clippers
121.175
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 1
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 8 1/2
223
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+8 1/2); Under

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (57 - 21) vs. BOSTON (54 - 24) - 9/3/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 227-278 ATS (-78.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
BOSTON is 45-29 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
BOSTON is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after a division game this season.
BOSTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 36-25 ATS (+8.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 34-24 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
TORONTO is 43-33 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
TORONTO is 33-24 ATS (+6.6 Units) as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 9-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 9-5 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (50 - 30) vs. LA CLIPPERS (53 - 25) - 9/3/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 44-33 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 78-63 ATS (+8.7 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 37-27 ATS (+7.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 75-61 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 37-28 ATS (+6.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
DENVER is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 5-5 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 5-5 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA

Thursday, September 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Toronto @ Boston
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Boston
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Boston's last 8 games

Denver @ LA Clippers
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Denver's last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games on the road
LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games
LA Clippers is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Denver

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-03-2020, 11:28 AM

Game 1 Odds: Nuggets vs. Clippers
Michael Crosson

The second round of the NBA Playoffs in the Western Conference will begin on Thursday with the 2-3 matchup as the second-seeded Clippers face the No. 3 Nuggets in Game 1 of their best-of-seven series.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Western Conference Game 1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Thursday, Sept. 3, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

Doc Rivers and the Los Angeles Clippers advanced to the second round by defeating the Dallas Mavericks in six games. (AP)

It took every last second in Tuesday’s series finale between Denver and Utah to determine a winner, but a late-game Donovan Mitchell turnover led to a two-point Nuggets lead, which led to a Mike Conley missed 3-pointer at the buzzer, as the Jazz fall in a heart-breaker 80-78.

Denver will now face the ever so dangerous Los Angeles Clippers, who had a little more trouble putting away Dallas than originally anticipated, but lacks no confidence heading into the Western Conference Semi-Finals.

Even after the Maverick’s detrimental loss of Kristaps Porzingis in the middle of the opening round, it still took LA all of six games to put an end to the “Luka Doncic Show,” as the second year player out of Slovenia shattered playoff-debut records throughout the entirety of the series, but wasn’t nearly enough to butt a dent in the armor of Doc River’s team.

The Nuggets should pose as a tougher matchup for the Clippers on both sides of the ball as Dallas views Luka’s offense as its primary source of defense in most contests. We will see just how tough this young, Nuggets team can actually be in this second round series as their emotions their emotions are riding higher than ever coming off a thrilling Game 7 victory.

Western Conference Semifinal Schedule

All games to be played on one day of rest

Game 1 - Thursday, Sept. 3
Game 2 - Saturday, Sept. 5
Game 3 - Monday, Sept. 7
Game 4 - Wednesday, Sept. 9
Game 5 - Friday, Sept. 11
Game 6 - Sunday, Sept. 13
Game 7 - Tuesday, Sept. 15

Line Movements

The second-seeded Clippers opened Thursday’s Game 1 contest at most books as five and a half point favorites against Denver, but that number has climbed all the way up to Los Angeles -8, as tickets continue to come in on Doc River’s team like crazy.

The ‘over’ is 2-1 in the series matchup so far in this series, so the oddsmakers decided to lean towards the high-side for the total in this matchup, setting the line at OU 223 points.

The Nuggets got the benefit of the doubt from books in their first series, being listed as moderate -200 favorites against the Jazz, but Vegas is not giving them the same love with this series price, listing Denver as a +900 underdog to advance to the Western Conference Finals.

Spread: Los Angeles -8
Money-Line: Los Angeles -340 Denver +280
Total: 223
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -1600, Denver +900

Nuggets vs. Clippers Head-to-Head

2019-20 Regular Season

Aug. 12, 2020: Los Angeles (-5.5) 124 vs. Denver 111, Over 230
Feb. 28, 2020: Los Angeles (-7) 132 vs. Denver 103, Over 220.5
Jan. 12, 2020: Denver (+1) 114 vs. Los Angeles 104, Under 221

So far this season, the Clippers have been the superior team when these teams meet up, going 2-1 SU and ATS against Denver. The ‘over’ is also 2-1 in this matchup, with the only ‘under’ coming in the Denver victory in which Paul George did not participate in.

The only fair way to evaluate the upcoming matchup we have at hand is by diving into the games George and Leonard both played in, which Los Angeles won by a combined average of 21 points per game.

The Clippers and Nuggets play a similar style of basketball, but LA’s backcourt is just much better defensively and has exponentially more firepower on offense, led by PG13 who has averaged over 25 points per game in his two contests versus Denver.

Murray’s 10 days of fame was fun while it lasted, but I believe the writing is on the wall for Denver after seeing how routine thumping the Nuggets appeared to be for the Clippers in their previous meetings this year.

Denver Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 7-8 SU, 9-6 ATS, 13-2 O/U
Playoffs: 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 O/U

It appeared the Nugget’s season would be abruptly coming to a halt following their 129-127 Game 4 loss to the Jazz in first round of the Western Conference Playoffs.

However, Denver fans got to watch their young shooting guard blossom into a superstar before their very eyes as he averaged 40 points per game in the last four games of the series to bury Mitchell and the Jazz.

Jamal having the best stretch of games in his young career was barely enough for the Nuggets to put away Utah in seven games, they will likely need that kind of production out of Jokic AND Murray to pull off the upset against the second-seeded Clippers in this bout.

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 9-5 SU, 10-4 ATS, 9-5 O/U
Playoffs: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 O/U

Los Angeles lucked out a little bit in its first round series in the Western Conference Playoffs as 50% of the Luka-Kristaps duo exited the bubble with a knee injury following the Maverick’s Game 3 loss to the Clippers, in which the Dallas Unicorn went for 34 points and 13 rebounds in his final contest in Orlando.

Despite dropping two games to the seven-seed in the West, concern never swarmed the Clippers like it surrounded the Lakers, as any struggles River’s team had was either accredited to Doncic or solely blamed on the shooting woes of George.

This series is supposed to be a tune-up for LA’s potential upcoming showdown with the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. Let’s see if Denver makes them sweat a little bit in this series, like Luka and company did in the previous round.

Key Injuries

Denver

SF Vlatko Cancar: Foot - Game Time Decision
SF Will Barton: Knee - Out

Los Angeles

PG Patrick Beverley: Calf - Game Time Decision

Point-guard Patrick Beverley missed five of six games against the Mavericks with a calf injury, and is listed for Thursday’s Game 1 contest as a game-time decision. Coach Rivers said in a presser on Wednesday he expects Beverley to be ready to go for the series opener with the Nuggets.

Announcement

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/3

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/3

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment