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**Udog** · 09-02-2020, 09:17 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Leaders in ERA this season:
1.20— Shane Bieber, Clev
1.47— Yu Darvish, Cubs
1.60— Max Fried, Atl
1.76— Jacob deGrom, NYM
1.93— Lance Lynn, Tex
2.09— Zac Gallen, Az

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 183,733
Please wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's Den; Mid-week musings…….

13) With the trade deadline passing yesterday, I’m always reminded of August 1987, when Detroit, desperate for a starting pitcher in the midst of a pennant race, acquired Doyle Alexander from Atlanta for a young prospect. Alexander went 9-0, 1.53 in 11 starts for Detroit and was a huge factor in their making the playoffs.

Problem is, that was a terrible trade; remember the young prospect they traded when they acquired Alexander? A guy named John Smoltz, now in the Hall of Fame.

12) In the history of major league baseball, only two teams won a game after trailing by 10+ runs in the first two innings:

1990— Philadelphia Phillies
1876— Philadelphia A’s

Phillies were down 10-0 in 2nd inning Sunday night, got back within 12-10 but fell short.

11) Oakland A’s won’t play again until at least Friday, because of COVID issues; looks like they’re going to be pretty damn busy in a couple weeks:
— September 11-13, at Texas
— September 14, DH at Seattle
— September 15-16, at Colorado

10) Cardinals 16, Reds 2— Sonny Grey threw 38 pitches, didn’t finish the first inning for the Redlegs, who had a very tough night. Cincinnati lost four of its last five games, is 15-21.

9) Chicago White Sox are 11-0 vs lefty starters this season, 11-13 vs righties.

8) Braves 10, Red Sox 3:
— Marcell Ozuna hit three homers, knocked in six runs.
— Rookie Ian Anderson allowed two runs in six IP in his 2nd MLB start; he is the first rookie to beat Bronx, Boston in his first two MLB starts since Luis Tiant did it for Cleveland in 1964.

7) You win some, you lose some; In March 2019, Orioles traded Mike Yastzremski to the Giants for a minor league pitcher. Bad move; Yastzremski is a quality player now for San Francisco.

But the Orioles also got Anthony Santander as a Rule 5 player from Cleveland, and he is one of their best hitters now- he has 30 RBI this year.

6) Oklahoma’s starting QB this fall is a redshirt freshman with a great name: Spencer Rattler.

5) They had high school football on TV Saturday night; one of the games had Deion Sanders’ son as one of the QB’s, being coached by his famous father. The kid is a 4-star recruit, looked like he is an accurate passer.

4) When Tampa Bay’s Ji-Man Choi hot a home run to right field in the Bronx Monday, YES Network quoted StatCast, which said that home run would’ve been a homer in only 3 of the other 29 major league parks. Interesting knowledge.

When they built this new stadium, they put the RF fence way too close to home plate- lot of cheap home runs in games there, for both sides. Not a fun place to pitch.

3) Boston 102, Toronto 99 (Celtics lead 2-0)
— Celtics outscored Toronto 32-21 in 4th quarter.
— Jayson Tatum had 34 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists.
— A reminder that Brad Stevens had Butler in the Final Four two years in a row, and the Bulldogs weren’t in the Big East back then- they were in the freakin’ Horizon League. The guy is a great coach.

2) Denver 80, Utah 78 (Nuggets win 4-3)
— Average total in first six games of this series: 234.3. Game 7’s are tense, more like the NCAA tournament, win-or-go home. Which is why shorter playoff series would be way more fun.
— Nikola Jokic had 30 points, 14 rebounds for Denver.
— Denver advances to play the Clippers in the next round.

1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
AL East- Tampa Bay, New York
AL Central- Chicago, Cleveland
AL West- Oakland, Houston
AL Wild Cards- Minnesota, Toronto

NL East- Atlanta, Mia/Phil
NL Central- Chicago, St Louis
NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
NL Wild Cards- Mia/Phil, San Francisco

**Udog** · 09-02-2020, 09:20 AM

NBA public betting, line movement September 2
Patrick Everson

James Harden and the Rockets get a second shot to knock out the Thunder when the Western Conference foes collide in Game 7 Wednesday. The SuperBook has the Rockets 5.5-point favorites.

NBA betting odds are on the board and getting attention for Wednesday’s pair of playoff games. The marquee matchup is Game 7 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets in first-round play, preceded by Game 2 between the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks in a second-round series.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Wednesday's matchups.

NBA line movement

Oklahoma City dodged elimination with a 104-100 Game 6 victory as a 5.5-point underdog Monday night. The SuperBook opened the Rockets -4.5 on Tuesday morning, and by Tuesday afternoon, the line was up a point to -5.5 for this 9 p.m. ET tipoff.

Top-seeded Milwaukee was a 5-point Game 1 favorite against No. 5 Miami, but lost 115-104 Monday night. The Bucks opened -4.5 for Game 2, and The SuperBook moved to -5 by Tuesday night.

NBA public betting

The Consensus is often indicative of the public mindset, and that mindset is showing a notable if not overwhelming lean to Wednesday’s favorites. As of late Tuesday, the Rockets were landing 61 percent of Consensus picks, and the Bucks were drawing 66 percent of early picks.

**Udog** · 09-02-2020, 09:23 AM

729MIAMI -730 MILWAUKEE
MIAMI is 15-3 ATS (11.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

731OKLAHOMA CITY -732 HOUSTON
OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games in the current season.

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, September 2

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MIAMI (49 - 29) vs. MILWAUKEE (60 - 19) - 9/2/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
MILWAUKEE is 98-74 ATS (+16.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 82-62 ATS (+13.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 87-65 ATS (+15.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 79-60 ATS (+13.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 77-59 ATS (+12.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against Central division opponents this season.
MILWAUKEE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 223-272 ATS (-76.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 7-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 7-4 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (47 - 31) vs. HOUSTON (47 - 31) - 9/2/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 113-75 ATS (+30.5 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
HOUSTON is 52-34 ATS (+14.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 54-37 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 46-31 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) as an underdog this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-25 ATS (+8.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-5 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-6 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
10 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Wednesday, September 2

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Trend Report
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Miami @ Milwaukee
Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Oklahoma City @ Houston
Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 8 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Houston
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games at home
Houston is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

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**Udog** · 09-02-2020, 10:06 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, September 2

Miami @ Milwaukee

Game 729-730
September 2, 2020 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
117.665
Milwaukee
125.149
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 6 1/2
226
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 5
220 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-5); Over

Oklahoma City @ Houston

Game 731-732
September 2, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
113.982
Houston
116.940
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 3
220
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 6
218
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(+6); Over

**Udog** · 09-02-2020, 12:42 PM

Game 2 Odds: Heat vs. Bucks
Michael Crosson

The Heat improved to 5-0 in the NBA Bubble on Monday as it defeated the top-seeded Bucks in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal matchup.

Milwaukee has been solid when playoff off a loss and the oddsmakers have the club favored when they take the court in Game 2 on Wednesday.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Eastern Conference Game 2
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Wednesday, Sep. 2, 2020
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

The Heat rallied past the Bucks in Game 1 as Miami is once again an underdog on Wednesday. (AP)

Line Movements

What was once a six and a half-point spread in favor of Milwaukee going into Game 1, has been trimmed down by over a third as Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks head into Game 2 as just four-point favorites, following their 115-104 loss to the Miami Heat in the series opener on Monday night.

‘Under’ bettors struck gold in Monday’s Game 1 tilt, as Milwaukee and Toronto combined for just 219 points – four and a half points under the total for the contest (OU 223.5). The oddsmakers decided to meet somewhere in the middle for the second game of this series, setting the line at OU 221.5 for Wednesday’s matchup.

Miami reigned victorious in Game 1, but it seems Vegas is content taking its chances against Jimmy Butler and company, listing the Heat as +175 underdogs heading into Wednesday’s contest.

Spread: Milwaukee -4.5
Money-Line: Milwaukee -200 Miami +175
Total: 221.5
Updated Series Price: Milwaukee -180, Miami +160

Game 1 Recap

The first game of this Eastern Conference Semi-Finals series was a track meet out of the gate, as Miami and Milwaukee combined for 69 points in the opening stanza of the matchup – 40 of those points belonging to the Bucks.

The Heat came charging back following the first quarter though and refused to take their foot off the gas for the remainder of the game, as Miami won the last three periods by a total of 22 points.

Most of that can be attributed to Monday night becoming the “Jimmy Buckets Show” down the stretch, as Butler tallied 27 second half-points to ultimately put the nail in Milwaukee’ coffin, 115-104.

Antetokounmpo appeared to be playing rather passive in Monday’s contest, attempting just 12 field goals in the opening tilt as his team spent virtually all of Game 1 trying to shoot its way back into striking distance from long-range, leaving the reigning-MVP with a rather under-whelming offensive role in the last three periods (8 FGA – Last 3 quarters).

Let’s see if Mike Budenholzer stresses playing through Giannis in Game 2, or if he elects to try to attack the Heat with the longball again like he did in Game 1.

Game 1 Betting Results

After scoring 40 points in the first quarter, bettors backing the Bucks were looking good. Unfortunately for them, Milwaukee cooled off in the second-half and was held to 41 points in the final 24 minutes.

Similar to wagers on the Bucks, the 'over' for the game was a tough beat especially after seeing the pair combined for 69 and 123 in the first quarter and half respectively.

Outcome: Heat 115 Bucks 104

Game: Heat Win, Heat Cover (+5), Under 226
First Quarter: Bucks Win (40-29), Bucks Cover (-2), Over 56.5
First-Half: Bucks (63-60), Push (-3), Over 113
Second-Half: Heat Win (55-41), Heat Cover (+2), Under 111.5

Heat Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS, 5-8 O/U
Playoffs: 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS, 1-4 O/U

It was so much fun watching “Playoff Jimmy” light up the Bucks for 40 points on 65% shooting in Miami’s win in their series opener on Monday, but the Heat better stay on their toes heading into Game 2 as they can’t expect that kind of scoring explosion out of from Butler on a nightly basis.

Goran Dragic also continued his playoff tear on Monday night, going for 27 points in Game 1, combining with Butler for over 58% of Miami’s total points. When you play the Bucks, the game plan must be to keep the ball away from the DPOY, and Eric Spoelstra’s team executed it seamlessly.

Bam Adebayo should be the one neutralized for the majority of Game 2 yet again, as he will likely draw the Giannis matchup for the second straight contest. All Miami can do is hope its shooters stay hot going into Game 2 while giving that same defensive effort for the remainder of the series.

Bucks Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 7-7 SU, 6-7-1 ATS, 7-6-1 O/U
Playoffs: 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS, 2-3-1 O/U

Antetokounmpo is not going to be crowned MVP in consecutive seasons simply because he has been the clear-cut best player in the league for the past two seasons.

It also must be attributed it to Giannis owning the highest usage rate in the NBA this past regular season (36.3), to go along with his superb basketball ability and physical attributes.

SO, GET HIM THE BALL. It is inexplicable for the Greek Freak to only account for just 12 of Milwaukee’s 75 field goal attempts over the course of a contest. On top of the Bucks failing to get their best player the ball, will somebody in a green jersey PLEASE make a free throw before Budenholzer has a literal cow on the sideline (14 for 26 – Game 1 FT’s).

Title-contenders do not shoot 53% from the foul line in playoff games. The Bucks are going to have to do many things better in Game 2 if they want to even this series up on Wednesday.

Key Injuries

Miami

PG Gabe Vincent: Shoulder - Game Time Decision
PF Chris Silva: Pelvis - Out

Milwaukee

PG Eric Bledsoe: Hamstring - Game Time Decision

The only injury really worth keeping an eye on for Wednesday’s contest is Eric Bledsoe’s hamstring. Coach Budenholzer confirmed the Milwaukee point-guard practiced on Tuesday, but he wouldn’t give a clear answer regarding Bledsoe’s status for Game 2. If Bledsoe is unable to go, I like Middleton to go over 22 points on Wednesday.

**Udog** · 09-02-2020, 12:46 PM

Game 7 Odds: Thunder vs. Rockets
Michael Crosson

The second Game 7 of the NBA Bubble will take place on Wednesday when the No. 4 Houston Rockets and No. 5 Oklahoma City Thunder square off in the finale of the opening round series.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Western Conference Game 7
First Round Series: Series tied 3-3
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Wednesday, Sep. 2, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

James Harden (L) and Russell Westbrook look to lift the Rockets to a Game 7 win over the Thunder. (AP)

Line Movements

The fifth-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder have forced Game 7 against the fourth-seeded Houston Rockets, and James Harden’s crew will head into this series finale as five and a half -point favorites, despite their lack of ability to assert themselves as the superior unit over the course of the first six games.

The ‘over-under’ for this series has split straight down the middle (3-3), similar to how just about everything else has gone so far for Houston and Oklahoma City in this series. Game 7’s total opened at OU 223.5 points, but that number has taken a steep drop all the way down to OU 219 as the public continues to back the ‘under’ which is consistent with most win-or-go-home NBA contests.

Spread: Houston -5
Money-Line: Houston -240, Oklahoma City +200
Total: 219
Updated Series Price: Houston -240, Oklahoma City +200

Game 6 Recap

Game 6 of this Western Conference playoff series had the Thunder’s name written all over it as everything seemed to come together for Billy Donovan’s team offensively, and they played tremendous perimeter defense for a whole 48 minutes, holding the Rockets to 15 of 44 from downtown.

Chris Paul put his team of young guys on his back down the stretch on Monday like he always does, but he had a little extra something for his former teammate in Game 6 as he went for 22 points in the second half, burying his old squad in crunch time towards the end of their last game.

The last NBA Playoff Game 7 to go ‘over’ its OU total was between the Clippers and Warriors back in 2014. Let’s see if this center-less Rockets and CP3’s Thunder can be the first group of squads to send a Game 7 over the total in the last five years.

Game 6 Betting Results

While side wagers were tight until the final minutes in Game 6, bettors backing the 'under' were smoking cigars early and often as neither team could connect from distance and possession basketball ran the clock early and often in the fourth quarter.

Outcome: Thunder 104 Rockets 100

Game: Thunder Win, Thunder Cover (+5.5), Under 226
First Quarter: Rockets Win (25-24), Thunder Cover (+1.5), Under 57.5
First-Half: Rockets (51-48), Rockets Cover (-2.5), Under 115.5
Second-Half: Thunder Win (56-49), Thunder Cover (+3), Under 111.5

Thunder Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Overall: 47-31 SU, 47-31 ATS, 38-39-1 O/U
Bubble: 7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U

What was intended to be a re-building year for Oklahoma City, has resulted in its team playing in a Game 7 against a potential title contender in Houston.

The key to the Thunder’s success this season has been their success in “clutch” moments, as they rank 1st in the NBA this season in contests that have less than a 10-point differential with less than two minutes left in them (30-15).

This can mainly be attributed to CP3 being the league leader in clutch points so far this season (171), as he takes virtually every shot for Donovan’s crew at the end of games.

If Game 7 is close heading into the final minutes the Rockets may find themselves in trouble, but there is no guarantee that will be the case if Houston shoots the three-ball like it did in Game 5
.
Rockets Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Overall: 47-31 SU, 36-41-1 ATS, 32-45-1 O/U
Bubble: 7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS, 5-9 O/U

The three-point ball definitely wasn’t cooking for Chef Harden on Monday night as he shot 27.3% from downtown in Houston’s 114-104 Game 6 loss.

We all know Mike D’Antnoi’s team doesn’t stand a chance against virtually anybody when the Beard isn’t feeling it, because he is putting up 20+ shots per game whether he’s hot or not, and that is a lot of volume to be eaten up by a player who isn’t seeing the rim well from deep at any given time.

To make things worse on Monday night, Eric Gordon and Jeff Green were brutal from 3-point land in Game 6 as well (3PT – 2 for 11), who have provided much needed assistance from deep during these playoffs when Harden is resting up or trying to find his offensive rhythm.

The good news is for the Rockets is that they just put on their worst performance of this series so far, and still had a chance to tie up or even win the game in the closing minutes of the contest. No need to worry about the Rockets here.

They just need to pray to the basketball gods for a better shooting night on Wednesday.

Key Injuries

Oklahoma City

SG Deonte Burton: Illness - Game Time Decision

Houston

SF Luc Mbah a Moute: Knee - Game Time Decision

Nothing crazy on the injury report heading into Game 7 as The Rockets finally got Westbrook for Game 5, officially clearing the list of any names who’s absence could potentially be a crucial factor in determining the outcome of this final matchup between these teams.

Announcement

Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/2

Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 9/2

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