Announcement

**Udog** · 08-31-2020, 08:53 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Leaders in runs scored this season:
36— Fernando Tatis, SD
30— Story Col, Yastrzemski SF, Machado SD
29— Lewis Sea, Swanson All
27— Betts LA, Ramirez Clev
26— Freeman, Trout, TAnderson, Tucker, Lowe
25— Cruz, Castellanos, TTurner, Bellinger, Biggio

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 184,786
Please wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up a sports weekend

13) Baseball’s trade deadline is 4pm Monday; San Diego Padres were active this weekend, adding 1B Mitch Moreland from Boston, and revamping their catching corps, adding Austin Nola from Seattle, Jason Castro from the Angels.

12) Why did the Padres add two catchers this weekend?

Going into Sunday’s games, San Diego catchers were hitting .140 this year. Not good.

Cleveland’s catchers are doing even worse, hitting .118.

11) Braves 12, Phillies 10- Atlanta scored 10 runs in the 2nd inning, Phillies scored seven times in the 3rd inning. Not much pitching anywhere to be found in this one. Atlanta traded for Tommy Milone, who struggled to hold a 10-0 lead. No bueno.

10) LSU’s star WR Ja’Marr Chase caught 84 passes for 1,780 yards and 20 TD’s LY; he has opted out of this year’s college football season, a big blow for the Bayou Bengals.

9) Sunday in Cincinnati, the three Cubs’ outfielders hit two home runs each; that had never been done before, ever in the major leagues.

8) Mets did something Friday they’ll probably never do again; they hit a walk-off home run in the Bronx. The nightcap of Friday/Sunday doubleheaders were makeup games from games that were cancelled because of COVID- the Mets were the home teams for those games.

When Amed Rosario hit his walk-off homer Friday, lot of people didn’t know the game was over, including some of the players/announcers.

7) Dodgers are only team that hasn’t lost a series yet this season.

6) I picked up Orioles’ 2B-3B Hanser Alberto on my fantasy team three weeks ago; he drives me crazy, has no concept of the strike zone, but he can hit. Reminds me a lot of Manny Sanguillen, the Pirates’ catcher from their really good teams in the 70’s. They’re liable to swing at anything.

5) Teams that struggle in the NBA playoffs:
— Portland has made the playoffs 36 times, lost in first round 25 times.
— Indiana has made the NBA playoffs 27 times, lost in first round 19 times.

4) Denver 119, Utah 107 (series 3-3)
— Jamal Murray is first player since Michael Jordan in 1993 with three straight games of 40+ points in a playoff game. He had 50 in this game, which forces series to a 7th game.
— Adding some spice to this series is that Murray went to Kentucky, Utah star Donovan Mitchell went to Louisville. Mitchell scored 44 in this game.
— Utah’s uniforms are incredibly ugly.

3) Clippers 111, Dallas 97 (LA wins series 4-2)
— Kawhi Leonard had 33 points, 14 rebounds, 7 assists, 5 steals.
— Luka Doncic scored 38, but the other four Dallas starters shot a combined 15-46.

2) Boston 112, Toronto 94 (Celtics lead 1-0)
— Raptors were 10-40 behind the arc; that not good.
— Boston turned ball over 22 times (-8), but they were 17-39 on the arc.

1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
AL East- Tampa Bay, New York
AL Central- Cleveland, Chicago
AL West- Oakland, Houston
AL Wild Cards- Minnesota, Toronto

NL East- Atlanta, Mia/Phil
NL Central- Chicago, St Louis
NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
NL Wild Cards- Colorado, Mia/Phil

**Udog** · 08-31-2020, 08:56 AM

NBA public betting, line movement for August 31
Patrick Everson

Russell Westbrook and the Rockets can finish off the Thunder in Monday night's Game 6. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Houston -5.5 and briefly went to -6 Sunday, before dropping to -5.

NBA betting odds are up and getting some attention for a slim Monday playoff slate of two games. The Houston Rockets look to finish off the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 6 of their first-round series, while the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat open their second-round series.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Monday’s matchups. Covers will update this action report with NBA sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the day.

NBA line movement

Houston boatraced Oklahoma City 114-80 in Game 5 Saturday to take a 3-2 series lead. The SuperBook opened the Rockets 5.5-point favorites for Game 6, and that line was stable throughout the day Sunday. Tipoff is at 9 p.m. ET Monday.

Meanwhile, Miami is quite well-rested for its Eastern Conference semifinal series against No. 1 seed Milwaukee. The fifth-seeded Heat swept the Pacers in four games, advancing with a 99-87 victory Monday. The Bucks lost their opener against the eighth-seeded Orlando Magic, then took the next four games, closing with a 118-104 victory Saturday.

The Heat-Bucks line bounced around a little bit at The SuperBook, opening at Milwaukee -5.5 Sunday morning, then briefly ticking up to -6 Sunday afternoon before dialing down to 5 by Sunday evening. Game time is 6:30 p.m. ET.

NBA public betting

Reyna Hernandez, manager at The SuperBook, said as of Sunday night, Monday's NBA slate was drawing "just a few small public bets on the Rockets -5.5, nothing major."

The Consensus, often a strong indicator of where public betting stands, actually shows two-way action on both Monday matchups, though the favorites are more popular. Milwaukee is landing 56 percent of early Consensus picks, and Houston is drawing 57 percent of early picks.

**Udog** · 08-31-2020, 09:01 AM

717HOUSTON -718 OKLAHOMA CITY
HOUSTON is 33-18 ATS (13.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

719MIAMI -720 MILWAUKEE
MIAMI is 25-8 ATS (16.2 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

NBA
Dunkel

Monday, August 31

Houston @ Oklahoma City

Game 717-718
August 31, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
120.568
Oklahoma City
110.353
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 10
220
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 5 1/2
226
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-5 1/2); Under

Miami @ Milwaukee

Game 719-720
August 31, 2020 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
116.259
Milwaukee
126.555
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 10 1/2
227
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 5 1/2
223
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-5 1/2); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, August 31

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HOUSTON (47 - 30) vs. OKLAHOMA CITY (46 - 31) - 8/31/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 45-31 ATS (+10.9 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) as an underdog this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-25 ATS (+7.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
HOUSTON is 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 54-36 ATS (+14.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-5 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-6 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (48 - 29) vs. MILWAUKEE (60 - 18) - 8/31/2020, 6:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 6-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 6-4 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Monday, August 31

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Trend Report
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Miami @ Milwaukee
Miami
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games at home
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Houston @ Oklahoma City
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Houston's last 20 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston

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**Udog** · 08-31-2020, 09:15 AM

Game 1 Odds: Heat vs. Bucks
Michael Crosson

Betting Resources

Matchup: Eastern Conference Game 1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Monday, Aug. 31, 2020
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

The Heat went 2-1 both straight up and against the spread in three regular season matchups against the Bucks. (AP)

Eastern Conference Semifinal Schedule

All games to be played on one day of rest

Game 1 - Monday, Aug. 31
Game 2 - Wednesday, Sept. 2
Game 3 - Friday, Sept. 4
Game 4 - Sunday, Sept. 6
Game 5 - Tuesday, Sept. 8
Game 6 - Thursday, Sept. 10
Game 7 - Saturday, Sept. 12

The other side of the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals will tip off the opening game of its series between the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks and the fifth-seeded Miami Heat in Disney’s Wide World of Sports on Monday night. Miami looked to be in peak-form in its first round series with the Indiana Pacers, as Jimmy Butler and company completed a four-game sweep of the unit sitting directly above them in the standings in emphatic fashion.

On the other hand, the Bucks got off to a 3-6 start in the bubble and appeared to have totally lost their way offensively, but were able to bounce back with four straight victories over the Magic, holding them to an average of 103.25 points, finally beginning to look like the top-rated defensive team in the league we are accustomed to seeing.

Both of these teams come into this series boasting tons of pride and energy. I expect to see an emotional, action-packed battle between Eastern Conference foes who know each other well, contending for a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Line Movements

Miami may have entered its first round series against Indiana as a favorite despite being the lower seed, but that is not the case against the Giannis Antetokounmpo and company. Milwaukee enters Game 1 as a five and a half-point favorite against the fifth seeded Heat, which is a similar line to what we see for a regular season Milwaukee vs Toronto game.

The ‘over-under’ for this contest could be a tricky one, set at OU 223, as we have the top-scoring team in the NBA in the Bucks, squaring off against a Miami unit that stopped the red-hot Pacers cold in their tracks last round, holding Victor Oladipo and company to under 101 points per game over four contests. Milwaukee dropped its Game 1 matchup to the Magic 122-110 in the opening round of the playoffs. The Heat currently sit as +200 underdogs on the money line to be the second straight lower seed to knock off the Bucks in a series opener.

Spread: Milwaukee -6
Money-Line: Milwaukee -240 Miami +200
Total: 223
Updated Series Price: Miami -400, Milwaukee +300

Heat Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS, 5-7 O/U
Playoffs: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS, 1-3 O/U

Miami is right where it wants to be right now in all aspects of the game (health, defense, offense, etc.), following its four-game sweep of the Pacers, but it still might not be enough to steal a few games against a Milwaukee team that is absolutely loaded with talent on both sides of the ball.

The Heat are capable of completely locking down explosive teams like they did to the Bucks earlier in the year when they held them to just 87 points, but judging by Milwaukee’s scoring rate and energy level in its last four games, Miami will likely need a more offensive approach to keep up with the firepower of Giannis and company in this series.

Bam Adebayo will draw the matchup of the recently crowned 2020 Defensive Player of the Year. Look for Butler to have a big night on the scoreboard, regardless of the outcome, as Bam will likely struggle to get things going early in Game 1.

Bucks Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS, 7-5-1 O/U
Playoffs: 4-1 SU, 3-1-1 ATS, 2-2-1 O/U

People were quick to jump the gun on slamming Milwaukee’s “panic button,” as Mike Budenholzer’s team came into Orlando looking extremely rusty, posting a record of 3-5 in the re-seeding games, then dropping its playoff opener with the Magic. But obviously there was no need to worry, as the Bucks bounced back in dominant fashion, winning and covering in four straight contests, shooting 48% from the field the rest of the way to close out their first series against Orlando.

Milwaukee is the team to beat in the Eastern Conference still, and I expect that to become gradually more apparent throughout the course of this series as they pave their way to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Heat vs. Bucks Head-to-Head

2019-20 Regular Season

Aug. 6, 2020: Milwaukee (-9.5) 130 vs. Miami 116, Over 223.5
Mar. 2, 2020: Miami (+5) 105 vs. Milwaukee 89, Under 227.5
Oct. 26, 2019: Miami (+11.5) 131 vs. Milwaukee 126, Over 222.5

The top-seeded Bucks squared off with Miami twice this season prior to the six-month NBA shutdown, and Erik Spoelstra’s team prevailed in both contests as his guys were able to hold the best offensive team in the NBA to an average of 105 points across their first two matchups.

Butler sat out the third regular season game between these teams, which inevitably resulted in a 130-116 Bucks victory in their one matchup inside the bubble so far, giving Miami the 2-1 SU and ATS edge over Milwaukee this year. The ‘over’ has cashed in two out of these teams three matchups so far this season. It will be interesting to see how the increase in intensity during playoffs will affect the total scoring outputs in this series.

Key Injuries

Miami

PG Gabe Vincent: Shoulder - Game Time Decision
PF Chris Silva: Pelvis - Out

The only players listed on the injury report heading into Game 1 are Miami’s Gabe Vincent and Chris Silva, whose statuses should not have a dramatic effect on the outcome of this contest.

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Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 8/31

Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 8/31

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