Announcement

**Udog** · 08-30-2020, 12:02 PM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Leaders in OPS this season:
1.212— Juan Soto, Wash
1.167— Jesse Winker, Cin
1.102— Luke Voit, NYY
1.098— Nelson Cruz, Minn
1.048— Tim Anderson, CWS
1.045— Bryce Harper, Phil

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 184,786
Please wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Sunday's Den: Random thoughts on a summer day

13) I’m a big fan of the Showtime series Ray Donovan, which stars Liev Schrieber; the Donovan family is from Boston in that show, so Schrieber’s character talks with a Boston accent.

I had no idea until a few months ago that Schrieber also does voice-overs for HBO’s Hard Knocks and other sports specials. That voice doesn’t have a Boston accent. Go figure.

12) There is talk of major league baseball going to a bubble format for the playoffs; American League bubbles would be in LA, San Diego. National League bubbles would be in the two Texas ballparks. World Series is rumored to be headed to the Rangers’ new ballpark in Arlington.

11) Toronto 5, Baltimore 0— Blue Jays’ acquisition of Taijuan Walker pays immediate dividends; he blanked the Orioles for six innings to get the win in Buffalo.

10) A’s acquired utility guy Tommy LaStella from the Angels this week; I’m guessing he will see some time at both 1B, 3B, to let Matt Chapman, Matt Olson get some days off from the field as the playoffs approach- they would probably still DH on those days.

Marcus Semien left Saturday’s game with a side injury, so Chapman will play SS and they will fill in with other guys at 3B for now.

9) Right now, the Phillies are a playoff team; they’re 13-4 when they score 5+ runs, 1-10 when they score fewer than five runs.

8) We talked a couple weeks ago about a pitcher named Chad Bell who was struggling so badly in the KBO that it was painful to watch. It took him 77 pitches to get thru three innings in the game I described. It almost looked like he had the yips about throwing a baseball.

Since then, Bell has turned things around; in three starts since that game, Bell is 2-0, 0.47, allowing one run in 19 innings. Good for him.

7) Bucks 118, Magic 104 (Milwaukee wins series 4-1)
— Game was 67-50 at the half; not a lot of resistance from Orlando.
— Milwaukee plays Miami in the next round.

6) Lakers 131, Portland 122 (Lakers win series 4-1)
— Lakers scored 117.2 ppg in this series.
— LA plays the winner of the Rockets-Thunder series.

5) Rockets 114, Thunder 80 (Houston leads series 3-2)
— Houston outscored OKC 37-18 in third quarter.
— It was such an easy win, Rockets took more 2-point shots than 3-pointers.

4) Golf trivia; Last time a non-major was won by a guy who shot over par for the week was the 1981 Byron Nelson Classic, when Bruce Lietzke won with a score of +1.

3) RIP to the great basketball coach Lute Olson, who passed away this week at age 85.

Olson built a great program from next-to-nothing at Arizona, leading the Wildcats to three Final Fours and the 1997 national title. He also led Iowa to the 1980 Final Four.

RIP to actor Chadwick Boseman, 43; he passed away this week after a 4-year bout with cancer. I remember him from his role as the linebacker who unexpectedly got drafted first by the Cleveland Browns in the movie Draft Day. 43 is way too young to go. RIP, sir.

2) I am seriously tired of being asked for money; animal rights groups, politicians, kids’ groups, groups that fight diseases, you name it. Seems like once you contribute to something, your name gets put on a suckers’ list and they spread that list around. Please go away.

1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
AL East- Tampa Bay, New York
AL Central- Minnesota, Chicago
AL West- Oakland, Houston
AL Wild Cards- Minnesota, Toronto

NL East- Atlanta, Mia/Phil
NL Central- Chicago, Milwaukee
NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
NL Wild Cards- Colorado, Mia/Phil

**Udog** · 08-30-2020, 12:02 PM

NBA public betting, line movement for August 30
Patrick Everson

Luka Doncic and the Mavericks meet Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers in Game 6 Sunday. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Los Angeles -10, moved to -11, then ticked back to -10.5.

NBA betting odds are up for a Sunday trifecta of playoff matchups, including a pair of first-round Game 6s that could lead to second-round berths. The Los Angeles Clippers aim to dispatch the Dallas Mavericks, and the Utah Jazz get their second shot at finishing off the Denver Nuggets.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday’s matchups.

NBA line movement

The Clippers beat the daylights out of the Mavs in Tuesday’s Game 5, notching a 154-111 victory to take a 3-2 lead in the best-of-7 series. Dallas won’t have Kristaps Porzingis, who’s out the rest of the series with a knee injury. The SuperBook opened the Clippers -10, reached -11 Saturday morning, then ticked back to -10.5 for this 3:30 p.m. ET tipoff.

Denver nabbed a 117-107 Game 5 victory Tuesday to stay alive, pulling within 3-2 against Utah. For Game 6, the Jazz bounced between -2 and -2.5 since the line went up Friday night at The SuperBook, and the spread was -2.5 late Saturday night for an 8:30 p.m. ET start.

The Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors open their second-round series in the day’s first game, a 1 p.m. ET meeting. Toronto opened -2.5 at The SuperBook, and that line was stable through Saturday night.

NBA public betting

SuperBook manager Reyna Hernandez said there was very light early interest in the Nuggets +2.5. The Consensus, often indicative of public play, shows the Jazz getting 66 percent of early picks against the Nuggets.

The Clippers are drawing 61 percent of early Consensus picks against the Mavericks, while the Raptors are landing 63 percent of early picks against the Celtics.

**Udog** · 08-30-2020, 12:03 PM

709BOSTON -710 TORONTO
BOSTON is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.

711LA CLIPPERS -712 DALLAS
LA CLIPPERS are 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season in the current season.

713DENVER -714 UTAH
UTAH is 103-75 ATS (20.5 Units) on Sunday games since 1996.

NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, August 30

Denver @ Utah

Game 725-726
August 30, 2020 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
113.505
Utah
119.345
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 6
233
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 2
220 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(-2); Over

Boston @ Toronto

Game 751-752
August 30, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
124.535
Toronto
129.170
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 4 1/2
230
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 2
216
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-2); Over

LA Clippers @ Dallas

Game 727-728
August 30, 2020 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Clippers
126.779
Dallas
114.731
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 12
247
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 8 1/2
238
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(-8 1/2); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, August 30

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BOSTON (52 - 24) vs. TORONTO (57 - 19) - 8/30/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 43-31 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games this season.
TORONTO is 33-22 ATS (+8.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
TORONTO is 34-25 ATS (+6.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
TORONTO is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 43-29 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a division game this season.
BOSTON is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 34-25 ATS (+6.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 227-276 ATS (-76.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 7-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 7-5 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (52 - 25) vs. DALLAS (45 - 35) - 8/30/2020, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in road games when leading in a playoff series since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 245-299 ATS (-83.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
DALLAS is 88-72 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 457-371 ATS (+48.9 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 135-95 ATS (+30.5 Units) on Sunday games since 1996.
DALLAS is 233-184 ATS (+30.6 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
DALLAS is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 73-53 ATS (+14.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 74-53 ATS (+15.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 43-33 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 77-63 ATS (+7.7 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 36-27 ATS (+6.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 43-29 ATS (+11.1 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 42-29 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 9-6 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 10-5 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (48 - 30) vs. UTAH (47 - 30) - 8/30/2020, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 24-36 ATS (-15.6 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 103-75 ATS (+20.5 Units) on Sunday games since 1996.
DENVER is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 23-32 ATS (-12.2 Units) as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 9-7 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 8-8 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA

Sunday, August 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Boston @ Toronto
Boston
Boston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

LA Clippers @ Dallas
LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 5 games on the road
LA Clippers is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing LA Clippers

Denver @ Utah
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Denver's last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
Utah
Utah is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games when playing Denver

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 08-30-2020, 12:49 PM

Game 1 Odds: Celtics vs. Raptors
Michael Crosson

The Celtics and Raptors will be the first teams to kick off a second-round playoff series. The pair was supposed to meet on Thursday evening in the NBA Bubble but Game 1 will now take place in the Sunday afternoon matinee spot at 1:00 p.m. ET from Orlando, Florida.

Make a note that both teams will enter this game with six full days of rest as both clubs haven't played since winning their first round series on Sunday August 23.

Toronto was expected to dominate Brooklyn heading into the postseason, but they weren’t expected to do it how they did. The Raptors scored an impressive average of 126+ points per game in its four playoff victories against Brooklyn, and there is no doubt they are a vital title-threat if Fred Van Fleet and the crew plan to continue scoring the way they did in round one.

Joel Embiid and the Sixers were expected to at least make Boston sweat a little bit in the opening round, even with the absence of Ben SImmons, but Jayson Tatum’s supporting cast was proven to be drastically superior to Joel’s young squad of role players, winning by an average margin of 11.75 points in a four-game beatdown of their division rival, resulting in firing of Brett Brown.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Eastern Conference Game 1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Sunday, Aug. 30, 2020
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

The Boston Celtics are listed as slight underdogs to the Toronto Raptors in both Game 1 and the best-of-seven series. (AP)

Betting Odds - Celtics vs. Raptors

Line Movements

The higher-seeded Toronto Raptors head into Game 1 of their second round series as two-point favorites against Brad Stevens and his Boston Celtics, despite boasting a losing record against Boston in the regular season.

‘Unders’ have been golden for two of the best defensive teams in the league to start the playoffs, as Celtics/Raptors games have stayed under the total in five out of eight bubble playoff contests to date. The total ‘over-under’ for this contest is holding strong at 216 points.

The oddsmakers are projecting this series to be a tight one, as Boston enters Game 1 as a slim +125 underdog to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals ahead of the Raptors (-150).

Spread: Toronto -2
Money-Line: Toronto -120 Boston +100
Total: 216
Updated Series Price: Toronto -140, Boston +120

Celtics Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 9-3 SU, 6-5-1 ATS, 5-6-1 O/U
Playoffs: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U

The Celtics are another team that looks like they are just now starting to put it all together, as we saw Kemba Walker looking like his old self, hanging 32 points on the Sixers in their Game 4 win to close out the final game of Boston’s first round series.

All the talk leading up to this series is surrounding the strength of Toronto’s defense, but let’s not forget about Boston’s deep defensive unit. The Celtics rank 4th in the NBA in defensive rating (106.5), trailing the second ranked Raptors by just a thin margin (104.7).

Boston held an always explosive Philadelphia team under 102 points in three out of four contests in the first-round of the playoffs while scoring an average of 112 points per game.

I expect them to put out an even better defensive effort against Toronto in this series, as they will likely need one to compete with the defending champs.

Raptors Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS, 4-7-1 O/U
Playoffs: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U

Toronto is notorious for being one of the best teams in the NBA on the defensive side of the ball, but in its series with the Nets, Nick Nurse’s team got it done with overpowering offense, tallying 115+ points in three out of their last four contests.

It seems like the Raptors are just now beginning to hit their stride offensively after exploding for 150 points in their most recent contest, making that 3-1 ATS in the last four games.

Toronto is not a team to be reckoned with in the East and they have a chance to put the East on hold with a statement win in Game 1.

Celtics vs. Raptors Head-to-Head

2019-20 Regular Season

Aug. 8, 2020: Boston (+1.5) 122 vs. Toronto, Push 222
Dec. 28, 2019: Toronto (+7) 113 at Boston 97, Under 217
Dec. 25, 2019: Boston (+4) 118 at Toronto 102, Over 214
Oct. 25, 2019: Boston (-2.5) 112 vs. Toronto, 106, Over 213.5

A highly anticipated playoff matchup kicks off this weekend in the bubble when the Raptors and Celtics square off for the fifth time this season.

Boston currently owns a 3-1 series lead, winning by an average margin of 14.7 points against Toronto on the year, but take that with a grain of salt as Pascal Siakam did not participate in two of those contests and the most previous matchup between these teams in the bubble was a meaningless one with key players on both sides not receiving typical minute loads.

This series is loaded with elite defensive talent at multiple positions on the floor, but that hasn’t necessarily been on display in the games between these teams so far this season, as they have combined for over 216 points in three out of their four matchups.

Try not to look too deep into the regular season H2H tallies between these two teams, as the recent results aren’t likely indicative of how this series will play out on the stat sheet.

Key Injuries

Boston

SG Javonte Green: Knee - Out
SF Gordon Hayward: Ankle - Out

Toronto

SF Patrick McCaw: Knee - Out
SF Oshae Brissett: Knee - Out

Gordon Hayward will miss Boston’s second round series with the Raptors after exiting Game 1 against the Sixers with a grade-3 right ankle sprain, requiring him to leave the bubble on Friday for treatment.

Kyle Lowry headlines the key injury concerns for Toronto heading into the Game 1 affair as he is a game-time decision with an ankle issue. Coach Nick Nurse confirmed Lowry missed practice on Tuesday afternoon, but is “hopeful” his point-guard will be available. The extra time off should have him ready to go although he may not be at 100 percent.

**Udog** · 08-30-2020, 12:53 PM

Game 6 Odds: Nuggets vs. Jazz
Michael Crosson

Betting Resources

Matchup: Western Conference Game 6
Series: Jazz lead 3-2
Venue: AdventHealth Arena
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Sunday, Aug. 30, 2020
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

Betting Odds - Nuggets vs. Jazz

Line Movements

The spread for this Game 6 contest opened in the same ballpark of -2.5 Utah as we have seen following the Jazz snatching a 2-1 series lead in Game 3. We haven’t seen a ton of movement in that line as tickets continue to come in, but a few books have knocked Denver down to just two-point underdogs which is something to keep an eye on moving forward.

After cashing ‘over’ tickets in four out of five contests in this series, the oddsmakers continue to climb the ladder on this ‘over-under’, opening at the highest total we have seen between these two teams all year – OU 221. The betting public thought this number was too high out of the gate though, knocking this number down to OU 219.5 at most books.

The Nuggets, who originally opened this series as moderate favorites to advance to the Western Conference second round (-200), now sit as +120 underdogs on the money line with their backs up against the wall down 3-2 heading into Sunday night’s Game 6 affair with the Jazz.

Spread: Utah -2.5
Money-Line: Utah -135, Denver +115
Total: 220.5
Series Odds: Utah -350, Denver +290

Jamal Murray lifted the Nuggets to a Game 5 victory as Denver looks to stay alive against Utah. (AP)

Game 5 Recap

When Jamal Murray is feeling it, he is the best basketball player on the court when these teams meet up; and that has been the case in the last two games of this series. Ever since Utah grabbed a 2-1 series lead over the Nuggets in Game 3, Murray has averaged 46 points, 7.5 assists, and 9.5 rebounds per game, willing his team to a 117-107 victory by scoring 42 points in Game 5.

With how unexpected Murray’s explosion onto the scene was in the back half of this series, Donovan Mitchell’s statistical outputs are beginning to fly under the radar and starting to look routine, as he has tallied under 30 points just once in this series, and that was during Utah’s 37-point blowout in Game 3 in which he played just 27 minutes.

Despite being down 3-2 in the series, the Nuggets own a 3-2 record ATS in this matchup after a sneaky 129-127 backdoor cover in Game 4; they will look to even up that record SU on Sunday night and force the first Game 7 in the bubble.

Game 5 Betting Results

Outcome: Nuggets 117, Jazz 107

Game: Nuggets Win, Nuggets Cover (+2.5), Over 220.5
First Quarter: Nuggets Win (33-32), Nuggets Cover (+0.5), Over 55
First-Half: Jazz Win (63-54), Jazz Cover (-1), Over 109
Second-Half: Nuggets Win (63-44), Nuggets Cover (-1.5), Under 111.5

Nuggets Betting Outlook

Denver: 48-30 SU, 36-38-4 ATS, 42-35-1 O/U
Bubble: 5-8 SU, 7-6 ATS, 12-1 O/U

The third seeded Nuggets continue to be one of the weirdest teams in the league as they entered this series as favorites, fell to underdogs, and are now charging their way back, trying to force a Game 7 in this opening round. These teams cashed ‘under’ tickets in the majority of their matchups in the regular season this year, but that has not been the case at all in the playoffs, with four out of five of the games in this series soaring ‘over’ the total.

There is a plethora of things working together for Denver right now, including the decrease in offensive usage of Nikola Jokic, causing 12 of their 13 games to go ‘over’ inside the bubble. I think the only way the Nuggets are able to keep up with Mitchell and company and force a Game 7 is by riding the hot hand of Murray on Sunday and winning the contest in another game that goes over the total.

Jazz Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Utah: 47-30 SU, 36-39-2 ATS, 42-35 O/U
Bubble: 6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS, 9-4 O/U

The game plan for Quin Snyder’s team on Sunday must revolve around orchestrating his guard tandem to contain Murray in Game 6, because Jamal has eaten the Utah defense’s lunch the past two games. Statistically speaking, the Jazz are a top ten defensive team in the NBA, but top tier defensive teams don’t allow “non-superstars” to go for 42 and 50 points in consecutive playoff games against them.

Despite entering the series as underdogs and earning a SU series advantage, Utah is still 2-3 ATS in its first round series after Jazz bettors got burned by the Michael Porter Jr. tip-in at the buzzer to conclude Game 4 (129-127 - Utah) and seal the Denver +3 backdoor cover.

I still think the Jazz are the better team in this series and will ultimately advance to the second round. I’m just not comfortable siding with them until I see what the defensive response to Murray’s scoring outbreaks are.

Key Injuries

Denver

SG Gary Harris: Hip - Game Time Decision
SF Will Barton: Knee - Out

Announcement

Sunday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 8/30

Sunday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 8/30

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