Announcement

**Udog** · 08-29-2020, 09:23 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Odds to win the Heisman Trophy:
+500— Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)
+600— Jamie Newman (Georgia)
+900— D’Eriq King (Miami, Fl.)
+1200— Spencer Rattler (Oklahoma)
+1400— Myles Brennan (LSU)
+1600— Bo Nix (Auburn)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 184,786
Please wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Saturday's Den: ACC football notes

ACC football notes:
Clemson
— 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Last three years, they’re 22-12-2 ATS as a favorite.
— Tigers won five of last seven postseason games.
— Offensive line this year has only 17 returning starters.

Florida State
— 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Seminoles are 18-20 the last 3 years; from 2010-16, they were 78-17.
— Last four years, FSU is 9-12 ATS as a home favorite.
— Florida State is 5-8 ATS in last 13 games as an underdog.

Louisville
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Cardinals covered once in last 8 games as a road underdog.
— Last four years, Louisville is minus-19 in turnovers.
— Cardinals’ top seven RB’s from LY are all back.

NC State
— 10 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
— Under Doeren, State is 5-10 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last three years, State is 3-9 ATS outside the ACC.
— Wolfpack split its last four bowls, which were all decided by 21+ points.

Wake Forest
— 3 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Last five years, Deacons are 13-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— Under Clawson, Wake Forest is 1-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Wake are 3-1 in bowls the last four years; all four games were decided by 8 or fewer points.

Boston College
— 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— New coach Hafley was a DB coach in the NFL for 7 years.
— Last five years, BC is 7-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last six years, Eagles are 14-4-1 ATS as a road underdog.

Syracuse
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
— Syracuse won its last four bowls; their last bowl loss was in 2004.
— Under Babers, Orange is 10-7 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last two seasons, Syracuse is +22 in turnovers.

North Carolina
— 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Last five years, Tar Heels are 7-4 ATS as road favorites.
— Last two years, underdogs are 9-2 ATS in UNC home games.
— In his career, Mack Brown is 15-8 in bowl games; UNC won its bowl 55-13 LY.

Miami
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
— Miami is 13-13 SU last two years; the natives are restless.
— Miami’s offensive line has 114 career starts returning.
— Hurricanes lost their last three bowls; they were outscored 49-3 in last two bowls, losing 14-0 to Louisiana Tech LY.

Virginia Tech
— 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— This is their most experienced OL in years; 115 career starts.
— Under Fuente, Hokies are 5-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Tech lost its last three bowls, allowing 30-35-37 points.

Pittsburgh
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Last six years, Pitt is 10-17-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last five years, Panthers are 14-7 ATS as a road underdog.
— Pitt beat Eastern Michigan 34-30 in a bowl LY, ending a 4-game bowl losing skid.

Virginia
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Virginia’s OL has 119 returning starts; all 5 starters are upperclassmen.
— Last two years, Virginia is 7-3 ATS outside the ACC.
— Cavaliers lost four of their last five bowl games (3-2 ATS, all as an underdog)

Duke
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Duke won its last three bowls, scoring 44-36-56 points.
— Last five years, Blue Devils are 8-14 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2013, Duke is 25-8 ATS outside the ACC.

Georgia Tech
— 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Tech covered once in last nine games as a home underdog.
— Last five years, Yellow Jackets are 2-8 ATS as a road favorite.
— Tech has 123 returning starts on the offensive line.

**Udog** · 08-29-2020, 09:27 AM

NBA line movement for August 29
Patrick Everson

LeBron James and the Lakers can finish off the Trail Blazers in Game 5 Saturday. Portland won't have Damian Lillard (ankle), and Los Angeles is a 13.5-point favorite at The SuperBook.

NBA betting odds are up for Saturday’s trio of conference quarterfinal matchups. The top seeds in each conference can advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs, with the Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks in position to end their respective series in five games.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Saturday’s matchups.

NBA line movement

With Portland Trail Blazers star Damian Lillard out due to a knee injury, The SuperBook opened the Lakers 13-point favorites for Saturday’s 9 p.m. ET tipoff. Late Friday night, the point spread moved to Lakers -13.5. Los Angeles boatraced Portland 135-115 in Game 4 Monday to take a 3-1 series lead.

Mirroring the Lakers, the Bucks lost Game 1 of their series against the Orlando Magic, then won the next three, including a 121-106 victory Monday night. And like L.A., Milwaukee is laying a big number, opening -13.5 with no line movement Friday night for a 3:30 p.m. ET start.

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets meet in Game 5 at 6:30 p.m. ET, with that series tied at 2. Rockets star Russell Westbrook is expected to make his first playoff appearance, after sitting the first four games with a quad strain. The SuperBook opened Houston -5.5 and ticked down to -5 Friday night.

The Thunder-Rockets total was also on the move Friday night, opening at 225.5 and moving to 227.

**Udog** · 08-29-2020, 09:33 AM

701ORLANDO -702 MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 14-3 ATS (10.7 Units) in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

703OKLAHOMA CITY -704 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 84-62 ATS (15.8 Units) vs. winning teams in the last 3 seasons.

705PORTLAND -706 LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season in the current season.

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, August 29

Orlando @ Milwaukee

Game 719-720
August 29, 2020 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Orlando
109.280
Milwaukee
125.808
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 16 1/2
228
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 14
227
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-14); Over

Oklahoma City @ Houston

Game 721-722
August 29, 2020 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
111.014
Houston
119.880
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 9
226
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3
224
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-3); Over

Portland @ LA Lakers

Game 723-724
August 29, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
109.927
LA Lakers
126.370
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 16 1/2
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 13 1/2
222 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-13 1/2); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, August 29

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ORLANDO (34 - 43) vs. MILWAUKEE (59 - 18) - 8/29/2020, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
ORLANDO is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
ORLANDO is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ORLANDO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 98-72 ATS (+18.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 38-29 ATS (+6.1 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
MILWAUKEE is 39-31 ATS (+4.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) on Saturday games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 53-37 ATS (+12.3 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 79-58 ATS (+15.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 77-57 ATS (+14.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 86-133 ATS (-60.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 9-5 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 12-3 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (46 - 30) vs. HOUSTON (46 - 30) - 8/29/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 112-75 ATS (+29.5 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
HOUSTON is 51-33 ATS (+14.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 53-36 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 45-30 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-24 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
HOUSTON is 12-21 ATS (-11.1 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-4 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-5 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (37 - 42) vs. LA LAKERS (55 - 20) - 8/29/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 33-42 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 27-36 ATS (-12.6 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
PORTLAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 27-37 ATS (-13.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PORTLAND is 23-35 ATS (-15.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 8-5 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 7-7 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 08-29-2020, 11:57 AM

Game 1 Odds: Celtics vs. Raptors
Michael Crosson

The Celtics and Raptors will be the first teams to kick off a second-round playoff series. The pair was supposed to meet on Thursday evening in the NBA Bubble but Game 1 will now take place in the Sunday afternoon matinee spot at 1:00 p.m. ET from Orlando, Florida.

Make a note that both teams will enter this game with six full days of rest as both clubs haven't played since winning their first round series on Sunday August 23.

Toronto was expected to dominate Brooklyn heading into the postseason, but they weren’t expected to do it how they did. The Raptors scored an impressive average of 126+ points per game in its four playoff victories against Brooklyn, and there is no doubt they are a vital title-threat if Fred Van Fleet and the crew plan to continue scoring the way they did in round one.

Joel Embiid and the Sixers were expected to at least make Boston sweat a little bit in the opening round, even with the absence of Ben SImmons, but Jayson Tatum’s supporting cast was proven to be drastically superior to Joel’s young squad of role players, winning by an average margin of 11.75 points in a four-game beatdown of their division rival, resulting in firing of Brett Brown.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Eastern Conference Game 1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Sunday, Aug. 30, 2020
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

The Boston Celtics are listed as slight underdogs to the Toronto Raptors in both Game 1 and the best-of-seven series. (AP)

Line Movements

The higher-seeded Toronto Raptors head into Game 1 of their second round series as two-point favorites against Brad Stevens and his Boston Celtics, despite boasting a losing record against Boston in the regular season.

‘Unders’ have been golden for two of the best defensive teams in the league to start the playoffs, as Celtics/Raptors games have stayed under the total in five out of eight bubble playoff contests to date. The total ‘over-under’ for this contest is holding strong at 216 points.

The oddsmakers are projecting this series to be a tight one, as Boston enters Game 1 as a slim +125 underdog to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals ahead of the Raptors (-150).

Spread: Toronto -2
Money-Line: Toronto -120 Boston +100
Total: 216
Updated Series Price: Toronto -140, Boston +120

Celtics Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 9-3 SU, 6-5-1 ATS, 5-6-1 O/U
Playoffs: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U

The Celtics are another team that looks like they are just now starting to put it all together, as we saw Kemba Walker looking like his old self, hanging 32 points on the Sixers in their Game 4 win to close out the final game of Boston’s first round series.

All the talk leading up to this series is surrounding the strength of Toronto’s defense, but let’s not forget about Boston’s deep defensive unit. The Celtics rank 4th in the NBA in defensive rating (106.5), trailing the second ranked Raptors by just a thin margin (104.7).

Boston held an always explosive Philadelphia team under 102 points in three out of four contests in the first-round of the playoffs while scoring an average of 112 points per game.

I expect them to put out an even better defensive effort against Toronto in this series, as they will likely need one to compete with the defending champs.

Raptors Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS, 4-7-1 O/U
Playoffs: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U

Toronto is notorious for being one of the best teams in the NBA on the defensive side of the ball, but in its series with the Nets, Nick Nurse’s team got it done with overpowering offense, tallying 115+ points in three out of their last four contests.

It seems like the Raptors are just now beginning to hit their stride offensively after exploding for 150 points in their most recent contest, making that 3-1 ATS in the last four games.

Toronto is not a team to be reckoned with in the East and they have a chance to put the East on hold with a statement win in Game 1.

Celtics vs. Raptors Head-to-Head

2019-20 Regular Season

Aug. 8, 2020: Boston (+1.5) 122 vs. Toronto, Push 222
Dec. 28, 2019: Toronto (+7) 113 at Boston 97, Under 217
Dec. 25, 2019: Boston (+4) 118 at Toronto 102, Over 214
Oct. 25, 2019: Boston (-2.5) 112 vs. Toronto, 106, Over 213.5

A highly anticipated playoff matchup kicks off this weekend in the bubble when the Raptors and Celtics square off for the fifth time this season.

Boston currently owns a 3-1 series lead, winning by an average margin of 14.7 points against Toronto on the year, but take that with a grain of salt as Pascal Siakam did not participate in two of those contests and the most previous matchup between these teams in the bubble was a meaningless one with key players on both sides not receiving typical minute loads.

This series is loaded with elite defensive talent at multiple positions on the floor, but that hasn’t necessarily been on display in the games between these teams so far this season, as they have combined for over 216 points in three out of their four matchups.

Try not to look too deep into the regular season H2H tallies between these two teams, as the recent results aren’t likely indicative of how this series will play out on the stat sheet.

Key Injuries

Boston

SG Javonte Green: Knee - Out
SF Gordon Hayward: Ankle - Out

Toronto

SF Patrick McCaw: Knee - Out
SF Oshae Brissett: Knee - Out

Gordon Hayward will miss Boston’s second round series with the Raptors after exiting Game 1 against the Sixers with a grade-3 right ankle sprain, requiring him to leave the bubble on Friday for treatment.

Kyle Lowry headlines the key injury concerns for Toronto heading into the Game 1 affair as he is a game-time decision with an ankle issue. Coach Nick Nurse confirmed Lowry missed practice on Tuesday afternoon, but is “hopeful” his point-guard will be available. The extra time off should have him ready to go although he may not be at 100 percent.

**Udog** · 08-29-2020, 12:01 PM

Game 5 Odds: Thunder vs. Rockets
Michael Crosson

After the pair was expected to play on Wednesday evening, the short break from the players halted action in the NBA Bubble. Despite the two-day hiatus, the NBA Playoffs will get back into gear on Saturday Aug. 29 nd all eyes will be on the 4-5 matchup in the Western Conference between Houston and Oklahoma City.

The Rockets captured the first two games in the series by double-digit margins but the Thunder have rallied for back-to-back victories, one coming in overtime and the other decided by just three points.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Western Conference Game 5
First Round Series: Series tied 2-2
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Saturday, Aug. 29, 2020
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

Oklahoma City has matched the small-ball style of Houston and that has helped the club capture victories in the last two games. (AP)

Line Movements

Despite losing two straight games to the Thunder, the Rockets still opened as two and a half-point favorites for Game 5, and we are seeing that number climb up to three and a half points at most books with the majority of the early action backing Houston to bounce back. As of Saturday morning, the Rockets are up to -5 at most betting shops.

We have seen the peak ‘over-under’ for this contest climb to 226.5 for Game 2 and stoop down to 223 for its lowest point in Game 3, but the total finally returns to what it opened at in Game 1 following consecutive ‘overs’, which is a healthy line of OU 225. Similar to money on Houston, the 'over' got some cash and the number is up to 227.5 for the evening tip-off.

Good value on the money line coming up in the Game 5 contest as the Thunder have managed to knock off Houston in consecutive games, but still cash as +126 underdogs despite the ambiguity regarding Russell Westbrook’s availability for the fourth seed.

Spread: Houston -5
Money-Line: Houston -210, Oklahoma City +180
Total: 227.5
Updated Series Price: Houston -250, Oklahoma City +210

Game 4 Recap

The Rockets looked like the far better team in the first two contests of this Western Conference first round series, but the last two contests of this seven game set tightened up, and we saw Oklahoma City emerge as victors in both games that contained “clutch” moments in them.

Oklahoma City was only able to muster up an average of 103 points in the first two games of this series, but seem to have figured out how to get through the center-less Houston defense by now, scoring 119 and 117 in its last two contests.

A big part of those scoring outbursts are thanks to Thunder sixth-man Dennis Schroeder, who went for 30 points in Game 5, pacing his team in scoring.

It takes a lot to knock off James Harden in a playoff series, but if OKC continues to muster up offensive performances similar to their previous two games, there is no doubt they have a shot of being the team that advances from this series.

Game 4 Betting Results

It was a great Game 4 for bettors taking the 'over' as the pair combined for 62 points in the first quarter and 120 by halftime. The pace slowed down and the Thunder did just enough to pull away for the victory as a three-point underdog.

Outcome: Thunder 117 Rockets 114

Game: Thunder Win, Thunder Cover (+3), Over 223.5
First Quarter: Rockets Win (37-35), Rockets Cover (-1), Over 58
First-Half: Tied (60-60), Thunder Cover (-1.5), Over 117.5
Second-Half: Thunder Win (57-54), Thunder Cover (+2), Under 115

Thunder Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Overall: 46-30 SU, 46-30 ATS, 38-37-1 O/U
Bubble: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS, 7-5 O/U

A team that was originally supposed to be in the middle of a rebuild and expected to deal players at the trade deadline now has the series knotted up 2-2 with a potential title-contender, and heads into Game 5 with a boat-load of confidence following consecutive victories in this Western Conference opening round.

Oklahoma City has the best record in the NBA in the clutch this season (31-15), and much of that can be chalked up to Chris Paul being the league leader in “clutch points,” racking up over 120 points in crunch-time during the regular season.

This Thunder team is loaded with guys who thrive on taking big shots, and are going to make a really tough out for the Rockets, especially if they continue to play without Westbrook. We saw emotions flare up between old teammates all over the court in Game 4, I expect this contest to be a doozie as well.

Rockets Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Overall: 46-30 SU, 35-40-1 ATS, 32-43-1 O/U
Bubble: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS, 5-7 O/U

The Rockets broke their own NBA record of most 3-point field goals attempted in a playoff game, jacking up 58 3-pointers in their 117-114 Game 4 loss on Saturday.

When Westbrook sits out for Houston, the offense tends to become one-dimensional, relying on the three-ball for the majority of its points, and we are seeing a glaring example of that demonstrated by their inconsistency over the first four contests in this series.

Houston came out of the break banging eight straight long balls in the third stanza, but finished the half under 40% behind a 3 for 18 cold-spell, ultimately losing them the contest.

The Rockets are still capable of beating anybody without Westbrook, it just becomes more like rolling dice, as you never know how Houston is going to come out and shoot from deep and can feel like riding a literal roller coaster at times during games.

I think the Rockets are by far the better team in this series and should ultimately win it, but I am personally electing to stay away from siding with Houston until Russ is back on the floor and looks healthy.

Key Injuries

Oklahoma City

SG Deonte Burton: Illness - Game Time Decision

Houston

SF Luc Mbah a Moute: Knee - Game Time Decision
PG Russell Westbrook: Quadriceps - Probable

The Rockets were hoping to get Westbrook back for Game 4 but opted to play it safe and sit him out as they still owned a 2-1 heading into Monday.

If Russ is physically able to play, I expect him to suit up for Game 5 with the series now knotted up; him being listed as a 'probable' should be a positive indication of his status moving forward.

Announcement

Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 8/29

Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 8/29

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