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**Udog** · 08-25-2020, 09:37 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Odds to win the BMW Championship this weekend:
8-1— Dustin Johnson
10-1— Jon Rahm
12-1— Justin Thomas
14-1— Bryson DeChambeau
16-1— Xander Schauffele
18-1— Rory McIlroy

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 175,380
Please wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Tuesday's Den: Nobody asked me, but……..

13) 2018 NBA Draft:
1st pick- Phoenix- Deandre Ayton
2nd pick- Sacramento- Marvin Bagley
3rd pick- Dallas- Luka Doncic

Sacramento’s GM just got fired. I wonder why.

12) The other day, a friend of mine was telling me about the first time he went to a horse racing book in Las Vegas, and how amazed he was when he saw that they showed races from all over the country. This was a long time ago, but his face still lit up telling the story. Was cool to see, and made me want to look at the prices for flights to the desert, but have to be cautious until there is a vaccine.

11) Major league pitcher is on the mound the other night, guy on first, two out, 1-2 count on the hitter. The pitcher backs off the mound, takes a note card out of his back pocket and looks at it. What the bleep could possibly be on that card, that he would need it there?

10) Miami Marlins have really ugly black jerseys; hard to read the names/numbers on the back, but if the season ended today, Miami would make the playoffs, which is remarkable. Manager Don Mattingly has done an excellent job.

9) Toronto’s Cavan Biggio was up with the bases empty in Tampa Monday; with bases empty, Rays played four outfielders, which looked weird. He slapped a single to left, which defeated the purpose. I’m thinking that sometimes the analytics guys overplay their hands in order to justify their existence in the business.

8) Dodgers are 7-1 this season in games where the winning run scores from 7th inning on.

7) Random stat: Indians’ 3B Jose Ramirez is hitting .353 at home, only .140 on the road.

6) Obscure news item of the day: A woman that was presumed dead was found alive and breathing inside a Detroit funeral home. Someone has some explaining to do.

NBA playoff games (all Game 4’s):
5) Milwaukee 121, Orlando 106 (Bucks leads 3-1)
— Bucks were only up 3 after the third quarter.
— Milwaukee was +30 in 23:00 that George Hill played.
— Good news for the Magic; when they get eliminated Wednesday, they won’t have far to go before they’re home, seeing how the bubble is just outside Orlando.

4) Oklahoma City 117, Houston 114 (series 2-2)
— Only one Houston sub played more than 15:00.
— Rockets were 23-58 behind the arc, 18-33 inside arc.
— Thunder’s four subs were a combined +33; their starters were minus-18.

3) Miami 99, Indiana 87 (Heat wins series 4-0)
— Miami advances to the 2nd round for first time since 2016.
— Indiana lost in the first round the last five years.
— Miami’s bench outscored Indiana’s 38-3.

2) Lakers 135, Portland 115 (Lakers lead 3-1)
— Game was 80-51 at halftime, which is all the comment this game deserves.

1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
AL East- New York, Tampa Bay
AL Central- Minnesota, Clev/CWS
AL West- Oakland, Houston
AL Wild Cards- Chi/CWS, Toronto

NL East- Miami, Atlanta
NL Central- Chicago, St Louis
NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
NL Wild Cards- Colo, NYM/SF

**Udog** · 08-25-2020, 09:37 AM

NBA public betting, line movement, sharp money for August 25
Patrick Everson

Luka Doncic and Kawhi Leonard square off in Game 5 Wednesday night, when the Mavericks take on the Clippers. The series is tied at 2, and The SuperBook has Los Angeles -6.5 for Game 5.

NBA betting odds heat up as the schedule slims down for a conference quarterfinal Tuesday. Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks land in the prime-time spotlight against the Los Angeles Clippers, preceded by the Utah Jazz against the Denver Nuggets.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Tuesday’s matchups.

NBA line movement

The Mavs-Clippers series is tied at 2 after Luka Doncic’s buzzer-beating 3-pointer in Game 4 gave Dallas a 135-133 overtime win Sunday. West No. 2 seed Los Angeles opened as a 6.5-point Game 5 favorite at The SuperBook, and that line was stable Monday night for a 9 p.m. ET Tuesday tipoff.

In a 6:30 p.m. ET start, the sixth-seeded Jazz can finish off the third-seeded Nuggets in Game 5. The SuperBook opened the Jazz -3, and that line also hadn’t moved by Monday night.

NBA sharp money

Reyna Hernandez, manager at The SuperBook, said the book saw some sharp action on Jazz-Nuggets Over 220.5, nudging the total to 221 Monday night.

NBA public betting

Hernandez said The SuperBook wasn’t seeing much early public play, though Mavs-Clippers will surely get a lot more popular as game time draws closer, particularly after Sunday’s entertaining game. The Consensus indicated two-way play on both games, though with a lean to both underdogs: the Mavericks were landing 57 percent of picks and the Nuggets 55 percent through Monday night.

**Udog** · 08-25-2020, 09:41 AM

713UTAH -714 DENVER
UTAH is 21-9 ATS (11.1 Units) in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

715DALLAS -716 LA CLIPPERS
DALLAS are 36-19 ATS (15.1 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game in the last 3 seasons.

NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, August 25

Utah @ Denver

Game 713-714
August 25, 2020 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
115.862
Denver
116.989
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 1
236
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 3
221
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+3); Over

Dallas @ LA Clippers

Game 715-716
August 25, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
114.850
LA Clippers
126.650
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 12
242
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 6 1/2
235 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(-6 1/2); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, August 25

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UTAH (47 - 29) vs. DENVER (47 - 30) - 8/25/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 98-77 ATS (+13.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 23-36 ATS (-16.6 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 8-7 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 8-7 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (45 - 34) vs. LA CLIPPERS (51 - 25) - 8/25/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 42-33 ATS (+5.7 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 64-41 ATS (+18.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 40-24 ATS (+13.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 42-29 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 53-34 ATS (+15.6 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 88-71 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 78-59 ATS (+13.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 79-53 ATS (+20.7 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more since 1996.
DALLAS is 73-52 ATS (+15.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 74-52 ATS (+16.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 72-58 ATS (+8.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 244-299 ATS (-84.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 8-6 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 9-5 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Tuesday, August 25

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Trend Report
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Utah @ Denver
Utah
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing Denver
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Denver's last 12 games

Dallas @ LA Clippers
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 9 games on the road
LA Clippers
LA Clippers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games when playing Dallas

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**Udog** · 08-25-2020, 11:40 AM

Game 5 Odds: Mavericks vs. Clippers
Micheal Crosson

The 2 vs. 7 matchup in the Western Conference has now become a best-of-three series as the upstart Dallas Mavericks are locked up 2-2 with the heavily favored Los Angeles Clippers.

The pair will meet in a Game 5 matchup on Tuesday from the NBA Bubble in Orlando, Florida.
Betting Resources

Matchup: Western Conference Game 5
1st Round Series: Series tied 2-2
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks outscored the L.A. Clippers 77-67 after the first-half in their Game 4 victory on Sunday. (AP)

Line Movements

After evening the series 2-2 in thrilling fashion on Sunday night, the Dallas Mavericks still remain six and a half-point underdogs for their Game 5 tilt with the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday night.

These teams have cashed ‘over’ tickets in three consecutive contests now, jacking up the ‘over-under’ for the fifth matchup of this series all the way up to 236.5.

Despite Los Angeles dropping its second contest out of four to Dallas and the struggles of Paul George, the Clippers still head into Game 5 as heavy favorites (-360), compared to the Mavericks steep underdog line (+260).

Spread: L.A. Clippers -6.5
Money-Line: L.A. Clippers -450, Dallas +350
Total: 231.5
Series Price: L.A. Clippers -1000, Dallas +600

Game 4 Recap

The pendulum swung right back in the other direction in Game 4, as Luka Doncic buried a cold-blooded, step-back three-pointer in the face of Reggie Jackson with time expiring in overtime to seal the Mavs' 135-133 victory on Sunday. Heading into the game, it was unclear whether Luka was even going to participate in the contest with a sprained ankle, but he sure did play; tallying 43 points, 17 rebounds, and 13 assists, including the game-winner in Game 4.

His partner in crime though, Kristaps Porzingis, who appeared to be the least concerning Maverick on the injury report, was scratched before tipoff on Sunday with a knee issue and is listed as questionable again for Tuesday’s contest.

Aside from the occasional Lou Williams scoring rampage, Kawhi Leonard is doing just about everything Clippers while getting virtually no help, averaging over 32 points and 10 rebounds per game, trying to single-handedly propel his team his team to the second round. Doncic has shown us that it is going to take more than one Clipper take down the pesky Mavericks, as they were able to take down a full-strength LA team without their second-best player Sunday evening. George and company need to pull it together on Tuesday night to avoid very dangerous territory in this Orlando playoff bubble.

Game 4 Betting Results

Outcome: Dallas 135 Los Angeles 133 (OT)

Some bettors might call it a collapse, while others will call it a comeback. Either way, Dallas fell behind early as Los Angeles cashed both first quarter and first-half wagers, rather easily too.

The Mavericks got hot in the final two quarters and carried that momentum into overtime. The 'over' cashed before the extra session started as the game was locked up at 121.

Game: Mavericks Win, Mavericks Cover (+7), Over 232.5
First Quarter: Clippers Win (34-24), Clippers Cover (-2), Under (60)
First-Half: Clippers Win (66-58), Clippers Cover (-4), Over (119.5)
Second-Half: Mavs Win (77-67), Mavs Cover (+3.5), Over (117)

Mavericks Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Overall: 45-32 SU, 39-37-3 ATS, 48-31 O/U
Bubble: 5-7 SU, 4-8 ATS, 8-4 O/U

After trailing in Game 4 by eight points heading into the halftime break, the Mavericks came out of the locker room looking like they had something to prove in what was a must-win game for them, outscoring the Clippers 35-19 in the third quarter, ultimately forcing overtime in this tilt.

If you would have asked me at the start of this series if I would rather have Luka or Kawhi on my team, I would have told you Kawhi…but Game 4 officially has me rethinking that with Luka tallying 43 points, 17 rebounds, and 13 assists in the Mavs' victory on Sunday. The second-year player has really proven that he can stand toe-to-toe with guys like Kawhi in high-pressure situations, his only problem is the health and skill of his supporting cast.

The Mavericks are already at a talent disadvantage in this series, they can’t afford to be losing guys like Porzingis down the stretch against the Clips if they want a chance to compete.

Clippers Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Overall: 52-24 SU, 43-33 ATS, 37-38-1 O/U
Bubble: 7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS, 8-4 O/U

It’s honestly a wonder that Los Angeles still has this series knotted up, given how bad George has played in the first four games of this series. After signing a four year max free agent deal, the superstar has averaged just 11.3 points per game over his last three contests and his team tends to rely on him heavily for offense. The Clippers, who were built to be this defensive powerhouse led by the Claw and PG13, appear to be caught off guard by this run-and-gun Dallas team that is notorious for playing flimsy defense.

All of that being said, the Leonard and company head into Game 5 with a clean slate, following four games in which they did not even scratch the surface of their potential as a unit. When it comes together for Los Angeles, it really is a beautiful thing, as they have covered in both of their playoff wins so far. They will try to put it together again on Tuesday in a crucial Game 5 showdown.

Key Injuries

Dallas

PG-Trey Burke, Ankle, Game Time Decision
SG-Luka Doncic, Ankle, Game Time Decision
PF-Kristaps Porzingis, Knee, Game Time Decision
SG-Courtney Lee, Calf, Out
C-Dwight Powell, Achilles, Out

The majority of the injury concerns leading up to Game 4 swirled around Luka, as he was the one who exited the third quarter of Sunday’s game with an ankle injury, but Kristaps was the one who ended up missing the Mavericks' last contest. Porzingis received an MRI on his knee and is listed as a game-time decision for Game 5 as he awaits results.

L.A. Clippers

PG-Patrick Beverley, Calf, Game Time Decision

Beverley is also listed as a game-time decision for this contest, but Doc Rivers hinted at him missing Game 5 in a press conference following Sunday’s loss.

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Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 8/25

Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 8/25

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