Announcement

**Udog** · 08-24-2020, 08:45 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

MLB leaders in OPS, minimum 70 AB’s:
1.122— Nelson Cruz, Minn
1.119— Bryce Harper, Phil
1.115— Luke Voit, NYY
1.095— Brandon Lowe, TB
1.077— Jesse Winker, Cin
1.074— Mike Yastzremski, SF

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 175,380
Please wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Monday's Den: Thoughts on basketball, and other stuff……..

Allow me a minute here to pat myself on the back; I don’t do this very often, but in this case, I think it is deserved.

On one of the NBA games Sunday, they were talking about plus-minus as a mainstream stat and I felt ten feet tall. There was a time a long time ago where plus-minus got me laughed at.

My work study job in college (1977-82) was keeping stats for football/basketball games for our college team at Albany. My real love is basketball, and I’ve always tried to come up with different metrics to help the coaches I worked for measure their team. In short, I was a basketball nerd way before it was a profitable enterprise. My timing hasn’t always been the greatest.

One day we were driving back from a football game, and I was thinking about the upcoming basketball season; someone in the car was talking about hockey, and mentioned a player’s plus-minus. Plus/minus is the score of the game while that player was on the ice, minus any goals scored while someone had a man advantage. Plus/minus was and still is a big NHL stat.

Suddenly it dawned on me; why not do this for basketball? Why couldn’t each player have his own plus/minus for each game? So I started doing it; as far as I knew, no one else in America was using this as a basketball stat. Of course, I was wrong.

Philadelphia 76ers had a legendary stat guy named Harvey Pollack; he was doing plus-minus too, as part of his media package for 76ers games. I regret that I never got to meet Mr Pollack; I couldn’t learned a lot from him.

For one individual game, plus/minus can be misleading, but over the course of a season, it is a telling stat. Plus/minus for player combos is also a really good metric; some guys just mesh well together, and should be on the floor at the same time. Others should not be.

(Side note: the guy who subs in for the best player often suffers in plus/minus, since he doesn’t get to play with the best player).

Some of the best stuff that has happened in my life revolved around my work with basketball teams and statistics; U of Albany, Schenectady HS, Guilderland HS. Being a nerd is more fun than it looks like from the outside.

Elsewhere……..
9) I keep weird hours; I’m watching Korean baseball Saturday night/Sunday morning and I see on Twitter where someone is posting pics of horses getting ready to work out at Saratoga. To them, it was already Sunday morning. To me, it was still Saturday night.

8) Neighbors across the street must’ve had a hall of a party Saturday; before I went off to bed around 6am, I look out the window and there is a black Corvette parked diagonally on the lawn across the street. Pretty nice car to be parked like that.

7) Major league baseball season is roughly half-over; we’re also a week away from the trade deadline. Blue Jays acquired DH-type Daniel Vogelbach from Seattle. Toronto is 13-13, tied for the second Wild Card slot.

6) Tampa Bay Rays have eight different pitchers with a save this season; they also have nine pitchers on the Injured List.

NBA playoff games (all Game 4’s):
5) Dallas 135, Clippers 133 OT (series 2-2)
— Tremndous game; Dallas wins after trailing by 21 at one point.
— Luka Doncic is 3rd player in NBA postseason history with a 40-point, 15-rebound, 10-assist game, joining Charles Barkley (1993) and Oscar Robertson (1963)
— Last three games, Paul George is 10-47 from the floor.

4) Toronto 150, Brooklyn 122 (Raptors win, 4-0)
— Game was 77-68 at halftime.
— Toronto’s subs scored 100 points in this game. Their subs.
— Nets can begin their coaching search now.

3) Boston 110, Philadelphia 106 (Celtics win 4-0)
— Sixers were down a hoop when Tobias Harris was knocked out of the game.
— Natives are restless in Philly; hard to imagine coach Brown keeping his job.
— Kemba Walker led the Celtics with 32 points.

2) Utah 129, Denver 127 (Jazz lead 3-1)
— First playoff game ever where both teams had a guy score 50+ points.
— Joe Ingels played 35:00, didn’t score a point, but also didn’t have a turnover; he was +8
— Jamal Murray made 9-15 on the arc, scored 50 points in a losing cause.

1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
AL East- New York, Tampa Bay
AL Central- Minnesota, Cleveland
AL West- Oakland, Houston
AL Wild Cards- Chicago, Tor/Balt

NL East- Miami, Atlanta
NL Central- Chicago, St Louis
NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
NL Wild Cards- Colo/NYM/SF

**Udog** · 08-24-2020, 08:46 AM

NBA public betting, line movement for August 24
Patrick Everson

Jimmy Butler and the Heat can get some time off in the NBA Bubble if they can finish off the Pacers in Game 4 on Monday. Miami is a 6.5-point favorite at Caesars sportsbooks.

NBA betting odds are up and drawing action for a quartet of Game 4s in the conference quarterfinals. The Miami Heat look to complete a sweep of the Indiana Pacers on Monday night, and that contest is followed by the Los Angeles Lakers squaring off against the Portland Trail Blazers in a prime-time tilt.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Monday’s matchups.

NBA line movement

Jimmy Butler and the Heat can finish off the Pacers in a 6:30 p.m. ET start. Miami won and covered from the favorite’s role in the first three games, and the Heat were 6.5-point favorites Sunday night, a tick down from the opener of -7 at Caesars books.

After dropping Game 1, the Lakers snagged the next two games and look to take a 3-1 series lead in a 9 p.m. ET tipoff. Caesars sportsbooks opened the Lakers -7.5 on Sunday morning, and that line was stable late Sunday night.

The Oklahoma City Thunder notched a 119-107 overtime victory against the Houston Rockets in Game 3, drawing within 2-1 in the series. Houston will again be minus Russell Westbrook (quad strain), but the Rockets are still 3-point favorites at Caesars, after opening -3.5.

NBA public betting

Consensus indicated early public support for the underdog Trail Blazers, who were landing 66 percent of picks through Sunday night. The desperate Pacers were drawing 60 percent of early Consensus picks, and Rockets-Thunder was closer to two-way play, with 56 percent of picks on Houston.

In Monday’s 1:30 p.m. ET opener, the Milwaukee Bucks are 13.5-point favorites against the Orlando Magic, but the Magic were taking 54 percent of early Covers Consensus picks.

**Udog** · 08-24-2020, 08:51 AM

701MILWAUKEE -702 ORLANDO
MILWAUKEE is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half in the current season.

703HOUSTON -704 OKLAHOMA CITY
HOUSTON is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) after 3 straight games being outrebounded by opponent by 5 or more in the current season.

705INDIANA -706 MIAMI
MIAMI is 14-5 ATS (8.5 Units) in road games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons.

707LA LAKERS -708 PORTLAND
LA LAKERS are 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season in the current season.

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, August 24

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MILWAUKEE (58 - 18) vs. ORLANDO (34 - 42) - 8/24/2020, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 97-72 ATS (+17.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 81-60 ATS (+15.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 86-63 ATS (+16.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 52-37 ATS (+11.3 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 53-35 ATS (+14.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 78-58 ATS (+14.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 76-57 ATS (+13.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
ORLANDO is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ORLANDO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 8-5 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 11-3 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (46 - 29) vs. OKLAHOMA CITY (45 - 30) - 8/24/2020, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 21-36 ATS (-18.6 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 44-30 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 34-24 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
HOUSTON is 112-74 ATS (+30.6 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
HOUSTON is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 53-35 ATS (+14.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-4 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-5 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (45 - 31) vs. MIAMI (47 - 29) - 8/24/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 8-6 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 8-6 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (54 - 20) vs. PORTLAND (37 - 41) - 8/24/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 33-41 ATS (-12.1 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 27-36 ATS (-12.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PORTLAND is 23-34 ATS (-14.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 7-5 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 7-6 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Monday, August 24

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Trend Report
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Milwaukee @ Orlando
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Orlando
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 19 of Orlando's last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Orlando's last 10 games at home

Houston @ Oklahoma City
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Houston's last 19 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
Oklahoma City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston

Indiana @ Miami
Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games on the road
Miami
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indiana
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indiana

LA Lakers @ Portland
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Portland
LA Lakers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
Portland
Portland is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing LA Lakers
Portland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

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**Udog** · 08-24-2020, 09:07 AM

Game 4 Odds: Rockets vs. Thunder
Michael Crosson

Betting Resources

Matchup: Western Conference Game 4
First Round Series: Rockets lead 2-1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Monday, Aug. 24, 2020
Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

Oklahoma City avoided a 3-0 first round series deficit by defeating Houston 119-107 in overtime in Game 3 on Saturday. (AP)

Line Movements

The Thunder, again, enter Game 4 as three-point underdogs , despite the Rockets potentially getting Russell Westbrook back from injury who has missed the first three games of this matchup with a quad injury.

‘Over’ tickets have cashed in two out of three contests so far in this series, but that wouldn’t be the case if it wasn’t for overtime in Game 3, as these teams combined for just 208 total points in regulation during Saturday’s tilt. The ‘over-under’ for this matchup sits at 220.5, with the early action coming in on the ‘under.’

Oklahoma City’s Game 3 victory paid dividends to its series odds, jumping from +700 ‘dogs to advance to the round, all the way up to +400 after their display on Saturday.

Spread: Houston -3
Money-Line: Houston -160, Oklahoma City +140
Total: 220.5
Updated Series Price: Houston -590, Oklahoma City +400

Game 3 Recap

All kinds of familiar faces are flying around the court in this series as James Harden and Chris Paul (former teammates), square off against each other in the Western Conference first round.

It feels like the Houston is playing on a slippery slope here as they elected to cautiously hold Russell Westbrook out of their Game 3 loss on Saturday, and now find OKC within striking distance, trailing by just one game in this series.

Harden led the way for the Rockets on Saturday, tallying 38 points, seven rebounds, and eight assists before fouling out in overtime against his old team.

CP3 showed that he still has what it takes to lead his team to victory in big games, scoring 10 crucial points in the fourth quarter and overtime on Saturday, but there is no doubt he is going to have his hands full defensively if Russ is able to return.

Game 3 Betting Results

What looked like another win and cover for the Rockets quickly evaporated in the second-half of Game 3. Oklahoma City wasn't spectacular in the final two quarters but it did enough offensively to capture the win and cover as a short underdog.

Total bettors playing the 'over' appeared to be on the right side at halftime with 120 first-half points posted but back-to-back quarters under 50 points had them on the ropes. Despite Houston being held to three points in overtime, the extra session helped the high side connect.

Outcome: Thunder 119 Rockets 107 (OT)

Game: Thunder Win, Thunder Cover (+2), Over 223
First Quarter: Rockets Win (29-20), Rockets Cover (-1), Under 55.5
First-Half: Rockets Win (63-57), Rockets Cover (-1.5), Over 113.5
Second-Half: Thunder Win (62-44), Thunder Cover (PK), Under 114

Rockets Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Overall: 46-29 SU, 35-39-1 ATS, 31-43-1 O/U
Bubble: 6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, 4-7 O/U

The big news for the Rockets in this one is that they could possibly get Westbrook back for Game 4, which might just put the icing on the cake in this series, already up 2-1 SU and ATS.

The Rockets have the Thunder on the ropes here, with Oklahoma City’s only victory coming in an overtime game that the Beard fouled out in. Harden has shouldered an enormous load for Houston offensively so far in this series, and any kind of volume relief should pay dividends to his efficiency stats.

Houston made just one more three-pointer than Oklahoma City in its Game 3 loss on Saturday, don’t count on the 3-point totals to be that close on Monday if Westbrook comes back.

Thunder Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Overall: 45-30 SU, 45-30 ATS, 37-37-1 O/U
Bubble: 5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 6-5 O/U

It’s easier said than done, but things are pretty simple for the Thunder if they want to make it out of this series; they just have to outshoot the Rockets. Houston doesn’t even bother starting a center.

They come straight at teams with a run-and-gun, three-point bombing style of play and just challenge opponents to try to keep up with them. That style of play gave CP3 some trouble back when he played for Houston, and still continues to give his current team struggles as Oklahoma City has half the sharps-shooters the Rockets currently have.

Now, with Steven Adams listed as a game-time decision, the Thunder could be in deep trouble if they lose their scoring presence inside.

Key Injuries

Houston

PG Russell Westbrook: Quadriceps - Out
SF Luc Mbah a Moute: Knee - Out

After gaining a 2-0 lead, the Rockets elected to cautiously hold Westbrook out of their Game 3 loss on Saturday. All signs point to him making his playoff debut on Monday as he is now listed as a game-time decision for the contest.

Steven Adams exited the third quarter for the Thunder with a bruised knee and he's also very questionable for the contest.

Oklahoma City

C Steven Adams: Knee - Out

**Udog** · 08-24-2020, 09:09 AM

Game 4 Odds: Lakers vs. Trail Blazers
Michael Crosson

The top-seeded Los Angeles Lakers will look to win their third straight playoff game on Monday when it meets the No. 8 Portland Trail Blazers in Game 4 of their first-round series.

After Portland captured Game 1, the "Purple and Gold" have muscled their way to victories in Game 2 and 3 in this best-of-seven Western Conference matchup.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Western Conference - Game 4
First Round Series: Lakers lead 2-1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Saturday, Aug. 22, 2020
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

The Lakers have picked up their defensive efforts in Game 2 and 3, holding Portland to 88 and 108 points in those games. (AP)

Betting Odds - Lakers vs. Trail Blazers

After routing the Blazers 111-88 to in Game 2, the Lakers head into the third game of this set as seven and a half-point favorites, eyeing a 2-1 series lead in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs.

These teams connected on the ‘under’ in consecutive games, and the opening total for Saturday’s contest is still set in the same neighborhood of 225 total points for this Game 3 rubber-match.

Damian Lillard has been cleared to play Saturday’s contest with medical protection on his hand, after dislocating his finger on Thursday night. Portland sits at +265 on the money line if you think it will be "Dame-Time" in Game 3 following his injury.

Spread: Los Angeles -7.5
Money-Line: Los Angeles -300 Portland +250
Total: 225
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -800, Portland +550

Game 3 Recap

There are three true “superstars” in this opening round matchup of the Western Conference Playoffs, and so far, each one has had their big night. Damian Lillard tallied 34 points, five rebounds, and five assists in Portland’s 100-93 stunning Game 1 victory.

Game 2 belonged to Anthony Davis, as he went for 31 points and 13 rebounds in the Lakers 111-88 rout of Portland in the contest Lillard dislocated his finger in.

Then finally, the LeBron James we have been waiting to see all summer came out to play on Saturday, exploding for 38 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists in LA’s Game 3 comeback victory.

Lillard didn’t appear to be bothered by his injury on Saturday, exploding to the basket and converting and-one attempts with his injured hand, while also shooting 5-11 from 3-point territory.

There was a lot of chatter surrounding the Blazers after Game 1 of this series. Game 4 should determine whether they were worth all the hype.

Game 3 Betting Recap

After a great first-half, Portland ran out of gas in the final 24 minutes and that cost bettors backing the underdogs. The 'under' barely cashed again, the third straight time in this series although the combined 224 points was the most scored.

Outcome: Los Angeles 116 Portland 108

Game: Lakers Win, Lakers Cover (-7.5), Under 225
First Quarter: Blazers Win (29-25), Blazers Cover (+2), Under 58
First Half: Blazers Win (57-53), Blazers Cover (+4.5), Under 116
Second Half: Lakers Win (63-52), Lakers Cover (-7), Under 117.5

Lakers Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Overall: 54-20 SU, 38-35-1 ATS, 34-40 O/U
Bubble: 5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS, 5-6 O/U

The Lakers have been on the ballot for “most disappointing team” in the bubble for quite some time now, but I think we can go ahead and take them off that list following explosions from AD and LeBron in consecutive games, to take a 2-1 series lead over Portland.

The Lakers have still technically underachieved though, covering in only one of their playoff contests thus far, and that was the contest Lillard exited. The Lakers are having to win games right now with pure defense, which they are very capable doing, but is taxing on 35-year old’s like LeBron over the course of a seven-game series.

Trail Blazers Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Overall: 36-41 SU, 33-42-3 ATS, 45-33 O/U
Bubble: 8-4 SU, 6-5-1 ATS, 8-4 O/U

There’s no doubt that you could probably hear a pin drop in the city of Portland when Dame exited in the third quarter of the Blazer’s Game 2 contest with the Lakers, but Lillard’s 34-point performance on Saturday night was definitely a big sigh of relief for them, even though they ended up on the losing side of the scoreboard, as he paced his team in scoring on Saturday.

Portland actually had its best offensive night of the series so far in their Game 3 loss, scoring a series-high 108 points on 41.1% shooting.

Saturday night made the Blazers 2-1 ATS in this series, and proved that they are still dangerous heading into Game 4, even with their superstar being banged-up.

Key Injuries

L.A. Lakers

PG Rajon Rondo: Out

Portland

PF Zach Collins: Ankle - Out
SF Nassir Little: Illness - Out

Portland power forward, Zach Collins, will need season-ending surgery on his ankle, officially ending his time in the Orlando bubble, which is another devastating blow to the Blazers interior. Wenyen Gabriel is expected to start in place of Collins to add versatility on the defensive side of the ball.

**Udog** · 08-24-2020, 09:44 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Monday, August 24

Milwaukee @ Orlando

Game 701-702
August 24, 2020 @ 1:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
125.749
Orlando
109.339
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 16 1/2
228
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 13 1/2
225 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-13 1/2); Over

Houston @ Oklahoma City

Game 703-704
August 24, 2020 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
120.210
Oklahoma City
110.711
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 9 1/2
225
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3
219 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-3); Over

Indiana @ Miami

Game 705-706
August 24, 2020 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
117.202
Miami
119.487
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 2
214
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 7
216 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indiana
(+7); Under

LA Lakers @ Portland

Game 707-708
August 24, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
118.675
Portland
117.622
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 1
217
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 7 1/2
224 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(+7 1/2); Under

Announcement

Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 8/24

Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 8/24

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