Announcement

**Udog** · 08-12-2020, 08:27 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Odds for this week’s Wyndham Championship in North Carolina:
11-1— Webb Simpson
12-1— Brooks Koepka
16-1— Paul Casey, Patrick Reed
20-1— Tommy Fleetwood
22-1— Justin Rose
28-1— Harris English, Billy Horschel

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 164,137
Please wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's Den: Mid-week musings…….

13) Pac-12 and Big 14 cancelled their fall sports schedule, which also means no pre-conference basketball games. Next spring could be a very busy time in the sports world.

12) Tampa Bay 3, Columbus 2, 5 OT’s— This game took over six hours to play; five freakin’ overtimes. Joonas Korpisalo had 85 saves in a losing cause for Columbus. This was the first game of the series; gonna be lot of tired guys for Game 2.

11) Portland 134, Dallas 131— Damian Lillard scored 61 points for the Trailblazers, who played only 8 guys- you think they took this game seriously? NBA teams never play only eight guys in a game. Blazers were minus-25 in the 39:00 with CJ McCollum on the floor; they were +28 in the 9:00 he sat out, which is hard to believe— never saw a split like that before.

10) Phoenix 130, Philadelphia 117— Suns are 7-0 in the bubble; before this game, the Suns’ starting lineup was introduced remotely by members of their family, which was a surprise to the players, who really seemed to enjoy it.

9) Colorado 8, Arizona 7— Game was 2-2 in the middle of the 8th inning, then both bullpens imploded; if you had the under in this game (why would you bet the under at Coors Field?) This was a bad beat, for sure.

They showed Rockies manager Bud Black in the Colorado dugout in the 8th inning; the TV behind him in the dugout had the Padres-Dodgers game on, which seems odd.

8) Colorado’s Charlie Blackmon is hitting .500; the freakin’ guy had COVID before the season started, then went 0-8 in his first two games, but is 34-60 since then!!!!

7) Colorado is in the midst of a stretch where they play 33 games in 34 days; they’ll be glad to have the DH, where guys can get a day off from playing the field now and then.

6) I still think it is weird when the DH bats 9th; the DH is the DH because he is a good hitter, right? Then why is he batting 9th? Some guys DH because they need a day off from the field, but why would you want a lesser hitter to DH?

5) Atlanta Braves aren’t messing around; they dumped P Mike Foltynewicz after a poor performance couple weeks ago, and Monday night, after Sean Newcomb got KO’d in the 2nd inning in Philly, he was also told to take a hike, demoted to the team’s research-and-development division in Gwinnett.

Short season equals little patience.

4) Orioles 10, Phillies 9— Leadoff hitter for Baltimore in the 10th inning (Austin Hays) hit a 2-run inside-the-park homer, the first-ever 2-run inside-the-park homer leading off an inning. Phillies led 3-0 in 6th inning, 6-5 in 8th inning, but let this one slip away.

3) Sunday afternoon in Arlington, Rangers’ OF Nick Solak hit a fly ball to the warning track in rightfield; the RF reached up, the ball tipped off his glove and went over the fence. Had he not touched the ball, it would’ve landed on the warning track, a foot or two in front of the fence.

The official scorer called it a 4-base error, which I totally agree with. No way should it have been ruled a home run, but Solak appealed the scorer’s decision to MLB, but he lost his appeal, much to the relief of whoever the pitcher was.

2) Hanwha Eagles beat Kiwoom 7-5 in 12 innings Tuesday; KBO games end in a tie after the 12th inning, so teams maxed out their bullpens in this game. Each team used 10 pitchers; time of the game was 4:58. Lot of pitching changes.

1) Nets beat Orlando 108-96 Wednesday; Brooklyn made 13-42 on the arc for the game, 25-46 inside the arc. Justin Anderson was 0-12 on the arc, which isn’t good; he played 31:00, but only scored two points. Tough day at the office.

**Udog** · 08-12-2020, 08:29 AM

NBA line movement for August 12
Patrick Everson

The Thunder and the Heat meet in an 8 p.m. ET Wednesday contest. Most sportsbooks waited to put up any Wednesday lines, with lineups in constant flux of late, but FanDuel has the Thunder -4.

NBA betting odds are on the board for a four-game Wednesday slate inside the NBA Bubble in Orlando. Among the highlights is a prime-time matchup between the Miami Heat and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Wednesday’s matchups.

NBA line movement

It’s the fourth-place team in the East against the fifth-place team in the West when the Heat and Thunder get together for an 8 p.m. ET tipoff. Almost every book held off posting any of Wednesday’s games, with lineups in constant flux for these last few days of the regular season. However, FanDuel Sportsbook had the Thunder -4 Tuesday night.

The Raptors are among the hottest teams inside the bubble, going 5-1 SU and ATS, including a 114-106 win over the Bucks on Monday as 5.5-point underdogs. Toronto faces the 76ers in a 6:30 p.m. ET start, and FanDuel pegged the Raptors 5-point favorites.

In the 9 p.m. ET nightcap, the Clippers and Nuggets do battle, with Los Angeles 5.5-point chalk at Fan Duel.

**Udog** · 08-12-2020, 08:33 AM

NBA

Wednesday, August 12

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Trend Report
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Indiana @ Houston
Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indiana's last 8 games when playing Houston
Indiana is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
Houston
Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana

Toronto @ Philadelphia
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games at home

Miami @ Oklahoma City
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami's last 12 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Oklahoma City's last 12 games when playing Miami
Oklahoma City is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Miami

LA Clippers @ Denver
LA Clippers
LA Clippers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
LA Clippers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Clippers

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**Udog** · 08-12-2020, 10:38 AM

761INDIANA -762 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) after a division game in the current season.

763TORONTO -764 PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season in the current season.

765MIAMI -766 OKLAHOMA CITY
MIAMI is 22-7 ATS (14.3 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

767LA CLIPPERS -768 DENVER
DENVER is 104-137 ATS (-46.7 Units) in road games versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game since 1996.

NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, August 12

Indiana @ Houston

Game 761-762
August 12, 2020 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
110.909
Houston
122.921
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 12
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 7
230
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-7); Under

Toronto @ Philadelphia

Game 763-764
August 12, 2020 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
127.482
Philadelphia
113.013
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 14 1/2
234
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 5 1/2
223
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-5 1/2); Over

Miami @ Oklahoma City

Game 765-766
August 12, 2020 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
121.677
Oklahoma City
115.438
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 6
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 2
219 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+2); Under

LA Clippers @ Denver

Game 767-768
August 12, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Clippers
119.277
Denver
121.246
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 2
240
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 4 12
235 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+4 1/2); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, August 12

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INDIANA (43 - 28) vs. HOUSTON (44 - 26) - 8/12/2020, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after a division game this season.
HOUSTON is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 5-0 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 5-0 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (51 - 19) vs. PHILADELPHIA (42 - 29) - 8/12/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 226-275 ATS (-76.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
TORONTO is 39-29 ATS (+7.1 Units) in all games this season.
TORONTO is 30-20 ATS (+8.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after allowing 115 points or more this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 21-31 ATS (-13.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 11-7 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 12-6 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
11 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (44 - 27) vs. OKLAHOMA CITY (43 - 27) - 8/12/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 42-27 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 32-21 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 2-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (47 - 23) vs. DENVER (46 - 25) - 8/12/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 240-297 ATS (-86.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
DENVER is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 86-70 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 60-39 ATS (+17.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 52-31 ATS (+17.9 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 49-32 ATS (+13.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 5-4 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 5-4 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 08-12-2020, 11:42 AM

NBA Bubble Bets - Wednesday
Tony Mejia

Indiana Pacers vs. Houston Rockets

Time/Venue: 4:05 p.m, AdventHealth Arena
Records/Bubble Records (SU/ATS): Pacers 43-28/4-2 (38-30-3, 4-2); Rockets 44-26/4-2 (33-37, 4-2)
Line: HOU -7/***, HOU ML -278, HOU +225

Line Analysis: Considering the Rockets were blown out by San Antonio yesterday, the James Harden effect is on display given the spread here. He’ll be in the mix while Russell Westbrook rests and Eric Gordon returns from an ankle injury suffered in the final scrimmage before seeding games began. Nate McMillan has a banged-up team on his hands and promised to shuffle rotations and spread out minutes before play in the bubble began so we might be in for one of those games where he tinkers.

Injuries/Rotational Adjustments to Watch: McMillan has received a contract extension and has done a nice job developing his group, though there are criticisms about how archaic his offense can be. He’s dealt well without having Domantas Sabonis to play through after the talented forward had to leave the bubble to deal with a painful case of plantar fasciitis. It’s helped that Victor Oladipo decided to play and he’s been better than expected. T.J. Warren, a first-team all-bubble lock, has also been nursing a foot injury that could sideline him here if Indiana chooses the cautious approach. Gordon returning for the Rockets means he’ll be shaking off the rust while also getting time that Ben McLemore and Austin Rivers have used effectively to get themselves going over the past few weeks.

Handicapping Notes: Since scoring 153 points in that tremendous win over the Mavericks to open their bubble schedule, the Rockets have scored 120 or more points only twice in five games and have seen the ‘over’ cash only once. The regular-season meeting between these two went ‘under’ as Houston prevailed at home 111-102. Gordon, an Indianapolis legend, is the x-factor here. How effective will he be? Mike D’Antoni is prioritizing getting him some reps and will put the ball in his hands often. .

Nothin’ But Bet: Bet the ‘over’ on Harden assists. My expectation is he’ll look to facilitate for Gordon and others in this one.

Toronto Raptors vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Time/Venue: 6:35 p.m. ET, AdventHealth Arena
Records/Bubble Records (SU/ATS): Raptors 51-19/5-1 (40-29-1, 5-1); 76ers 42-29/3-3 (29-38-4, 1-5)
Line: TOR -5.5/222.5 TOR -250 ML, PHI +205

Line Analysis: Expect this line to fluctuate as news trickles out regarding the availability of 76ers center Joel Embiid. Al Horford and Tobias Harris are questionable as well after sitting out Tuesday’s loss to Phoenix. The Raptors should have a full roster in play after a rest day on the heels of posting wins in both ends of a back-to-back against the Grizzlies and Bucks. They’re locked into the East’s No. 2 seed.

Injuries/Rotational Adjustments to Watch: Pascal Siakam hasn’t rebounded well but has found the range from the perimeter. Skinnier Marc Gasol is still every bit as impressive a defender as the larger model, and guards Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet have been tremendous. Both should play here, which means Philly point guard Shake Milton will have his hands full. Josh Richardson had a huge game in a loss to Portland before sitting out yesterday’s loss to Phoenix, so he’ll be the x-factor for the Sixers. Alec Burks comes off a great effort in Tuesday’s loss to the Suns and gives the offense some teeth now that he’s guaranteed a larger role with Ben Simmons sidelined.

Handicapping Notes: Toronto won two of three this season against its Atlantic Division rival but these teams haven’t seen one another since Jan. 22. The 76ers suffered both losses in Toronto, failing to crack the century mark. They beat the Raps at home 110-104 on Dec. 8 in the only meeting that didn’t go ‘under.’ The low side is 5-0-1 in seeding games involving the Raptors.

Nothin’ But Bet: We’ll get creative in this one and ride the 76ers to win the first quarter but the Raptors to ultimately take the game. That first-quarter winner/match winner prop pays +330 at FanDuel.

Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Time/Venue: 8:05 p.m. ET, Visa Athletic Center
Records/Bubble Records (SU/ATS): Heat 44-27/3-3 (36-33-2, 3-3); Thunder 43-27/3-3 (43-27, 3-3)
Line: OKC -1.5/217 OKC -120 ML, MIA +102

Line Analysis: The Heat opened as a heavier underdog here and I don’t understand why. Both teams have been impressive in the bubble. This should be a pick’em. If Jimmy Butler is counted in as a participant, I’d expect this line to shift closer to that.

Injuries/Rotational Adjustments to Watch: The Heat dominated three of the four quarters against the Pacers as Jimmy Butler returned and shut down T.J. Warren, helping hold one of the bubble’s breakout stars scoreless in the second half. Goran Dragic (ankle) also returned, rejoining the starting lineup with rookie Kendrick Nunn “self-quarantining” after leaving the bubble. He’s not expected to play today but according to Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel beat writer Ira Winderman, that could change. Tyler Herro has excelled with more touches and seems well-suited to taking over Dragic’s role as chief catalyst off the bench.

Chris Paul played both legs of a back-to-back for the Thunder and appears to want to log reps and help teammates improve through these seeding games. Centers Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel have been banged up this week and have been excluded from the lineup the past few games. Mike Muscala has started in the middle and Darius Bazley has flourished in creating matchup problems by using his mobility as a small-ball big man.

Handicapping Notes: These are two of the bubble’s most impressive defensive teams, and it will be interesting to see if Bazley can have the same impact that he’s enjoyed over the past few weeks when facing Miami’s active frontcourt paced by Bam Adebayo. The ‘under’ is 3-3 for both teams but cashed more often than not prior to the regular season being put on pause as these teams established identities. The ‘over’ connected in the lone meeting back on Jan. 17. The Heat won 115-108 in OKC as a 1-point favorite but Adams didn’t play and Herro was ill. Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala weren’t part of the Miami roster yet.

Nothin’ But Bet: If Adams plays, I’d be the first-quarter under.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets

Time/Venue: 9:05 p.m. ET, AdventHealth Arena
Records/Bubble Records (SU/ATS): Clippers 47-23/3-3 (39-31, 4-2); Nuggets 46-25/3-3 (33-34-4, 4-2)
Line: LAC -5/227.5, LAC ML -220, DEN +184

Line Analysis: This number is right around where it should be, though it opened a little higher than I would’ve guessed and was sharply bet as some took the points with the Nuggets. These Western conference heavyweights are expected to meet in the semifinals if both hold serve as seeded favorites in their first-round series. L.A. sent a message in the most recent matchup between these teams on Feb. 28, prevailing 132-103 as a seven-point home favorite. Denver was a one-point underdog when it won at home on Jan. 12, but Paul George was absent for that 114-104 result. The total for both games closed in the 220-221 range.

Injuries/Rotational Adjustments to Watch: The big news for L.A. is that super sub Montrezl Harrell is expected to return and see his normal minutes after coming out of quarantine. Harrell has been away from the bubble due to a family tragedy and is ready to rejoin Lou Williams on the most lethal second unit in the league. George and Leonard will likely rejoin forces and should be in the mix for this one and Friday’s finale against the Thunder.

The Nuggets are going to be without starting wings Will Barton and Gary Harris for one more game before potentially getting them back on Friday for a dress-rehearsal. Both have been too injured to play throughout the seeding games, giving Michael Porter Jr. and Jerami Grant opportunities to really contribute. Jamal Murray returned on Saturday and has looked sharp, allowing Monte Morris to return to the bench role that suits him best. He was the key to Denver’s cover against the Lakers on Monday.

Handicapping Notes: This would ordinarily be a massive game between the second and third seeds in the West since a Nuggets’ victory would trim the difference between the teams to a half-game. Without homecourt advantage in play, it means much less. It remains to be seen whether Doc Rivers and Michael Malone hold anything back since neither wants to tip their hand prior to an expected playoff meeting, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see this one wind up with a scrimmage feel. Harrell’s return and the fact that Malone is still taking a long look at the likes of P.J. Dozier and Bol Bol contribute to the feeling that this contest isn’t likely to get bogged down by many coaching tactics.

Nothin’ But Bet: Porter Jr.’s run is about to come to an end since Barton’s return will limit touches and potentially send him back to the bench. Expect him to be aggressive in making Malone’s decision a difficult one with a big game here. Ride the over a Porter Jr. points + rebounds prop.

**Udog** · 08-12-2020, 02:04 PM

Hoop Trends for Wednesday August 12
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: L.A. Clippers at Denver (9:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Clippers are 11-0 ATS (12.32 ppg) with rest coming off a loss as a favorite.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Miami at Oklahoma City (8:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Heat are 0-11-1 ATS (-10.46 ppg) with rest off a 10+ points in which their high scorer had fewer than 20 points.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Toronto at Philadelphia

-- The 76ers are 9-0-1 OU (12.45 ppg) after they had less than 15% of their points from free throws last game.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day
Matchup: L.A. Clippers at Denver (9:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Clippers are 0-10-1 OU (-9.27 ppg) off a game as a favorite in which Kawhi Leonard had more than 30 points and they did not win by more than 25 points.

Announcement

Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 8/12

Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 8/12

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