Announcement

**Udog** · 08-06-2020, 09:13 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

— Marlins 1-2, Orioles 0-1- Miami swept a doubleheader, despite scoring a total of three runs in the two games.
— Washington ace Max Scherzer (hamstring) left his start after one inning Wednesday.
— Dodgers 7, Padres 6- Chris Taylor threw out the tying run at the plate from left field to end the game.
— A’s 6, Texas 4— Oakland won its last five games.
— Nuggets 132, Spurs 126- Denver scored 43 points in 4th quarter.
— Thunder 105, Lakers 86— OKC held Anthony Davis to 9 points in 29:00.

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 156,906
Please wear a mask when you go out.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..

Good to be back; have a lot of people to thank, but I’ll do that down the road a little.

13) First of all, Dr Fauci says he has gotten death threats and his family has been harassed, because he is a scientist who tells the truth. What the actual bleep? Who threatens a scientist because he tells us how to avoid catching a virus that can kill us?

He isn’t a politician, he is a 78-year old doctor who has worked for six Presidents and has an impeccable record. Who would threaten him?

There are some very evil people in this country; they need to go back under their rock.

12) Had eye surgery Tuesday; the doctor says things went well, and in a few weeks I’ll have some new glasses and I’ll be seeing like my old self again. When you’re sitting by yourself in a reclining chair waiting to be operated on, some thoughts run through your head……

11) Nurses might be the most underrated people in our society; they help sick people get better, they do lot of the dirty work, while doctors make the bigger money. Yesterday I was reminded of when my dad was very ill 6-7 years ago, sitting in his room and watching the nurses do their jobs with (mostly) good cheer. A very honorable profession.

10) Kansas City Royals used 20 different pitchers in their first 11 games; rosters go down from 30 guys to 28 Thursday, so hopefully that means bullpens will be little thinner, and hitters can face the same pitchers more often, which will help to increase scoring.

9) ESPN’s Jon Sciambi came up with an interesting stat:
— In his 2,164 major league games, Lou Gehrig faced 342 different pitchers.
— In his 1,205 major league games, Mike Trout has faced 835 pitchers.

8) Last year, only 24% of starting pitchers threw 100+ pitches in their starts; ten years ago, half of major league starters threw 100+ pitches.

7) Why is Dodgers’ reliever Joe Kelly still pitching? He got suspended last week, then appealed- hear the damn appeal already!!! They can’t do that on a Zoom call?

6) There was a delay in the Pirates-Twins game Tuesday when a drone was hovering over Target Field; took 10-15 minutes for the thing to go away.

5) Fred VanVleet of the Raptors set a career high with 36 points the other night; weird thing is that in that whole game, he scored only one 2-point basket. He was 7-12 on the arc, 13-13 on the foul line, 1-4 inside the arc.

4) TJ Warren of the Indiana Pacers scored 117 points in three games down in the Orlando bubble; an impressive display of scoring.

3) Braves lost pitching ace Mike Soroka to a torn achilles tendon this week; difficult loss to overcome.

2) UConn is the first I-A college football team to cancel its football season for this year.

1) Some good COVID news; Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford had a false positive test last week, so he is healthy and good to go for training camp. Glad to hear he is healthy.

**Udog** · 08-06-2020, 09:15 AM

NBA public betting line movement for August 6
Patrick Everson

James Harden and the Rockets take on the Western Conference-leading Lakers on Thursday night in the NBA Bubble. FanDuel Sportsbook opened the Lakers -2 and quickly moved to -1.

NBA betting odds are on the board and drawing dollars for Thursday’s six-game docket. The marquee matchup in the NBA Bubble is the nightcap between the Rockets and the Lakers, with LeBron James and Co. playing the second of a back-to-back.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s matchups. Covers will update this action report with NBA sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the day.

NBA line movement

The Lakers have already clinched the West’s No. 1 seed, and it showed Wednesday in a 105-86 loss to the Thunder. FanDuel, among limited sportsbooks posting the Lakers-Rockets line Wednesday night, opened Los Angeles -2 and quickly moved to -1 for a 9 p.m. ET tipoff.

Meanwhile, the Bucks look to rebound from the biggest point-spread upset in the NBA since April 1993. Milwaukee was an 18.5-point favorite against Brooklyn on Tuesday and lost outright, 119-106. The Bucks opened -8.5 against the Heat for a 4 p.m. ET matchup.

And the Trail Blazers continue their charge to make the playoffs, sitting just one game behind eighth-place Memphis in the West. Interestingly, FanDuel oddsmakers opened Portland a 3.5-point favorite against Denver, and the line moved to -4 late Wednesday night for an 8 p.m. ET clash.

**Udog** · 08-06-2020, 09:16 AM

775NEW ORLEANS -776 SACRAMENTO
SACRAMENTO is 13-1 ATS (11.9 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders in the current season.

777MIAMI -778 MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 33-14 ATS (17.6 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite in the last 3 seasons.

779INDIANA -780 PHOENIX
INDIANA is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season in the current season.

781LA CLIPPERS -782 DALLAS
DALLAS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less in the current season.

783PORTLAND -784 DENVER
DENVER is 32-18 ATS (12.2 Units) vs. division opponents in the last 3 seasons.

**Udog** · 08-06-2020, 09:19 AM

NBA

Thursday, August 6

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Trend Report
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New Orleans @ Sacramento
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Sacramento
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Sacramento's last 7 games

Miami @ Milwaukee
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
Miami is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games at home
Milwaukee is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home

Indiana @ Phoenix
Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

LA Clippers @ Dallas
LA Clippers
LA Clippers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games

Portland @ Denver
Portland
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Portland's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Portland's last 14 games when playing Denver
Denver
Denver is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Portland
Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Portland

LA Lakers @ Houston
LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Lakers's last 7 games
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
Houston is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games when playing LA Lakers

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**Udog** · 08-06-2020, 09:58 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, August 6

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NEW ORLEANS (29 - 38) vs. SACRAMENTO (28 - 39) - 8/6/2020, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 53-78 ATS (-32.8 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
SACRAMENTO is 42-28 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 132-100 ATS (+22.0 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 31-17 ATS (+12.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 6-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 6-3 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (43 - 25) vs. MILWAUKEE (54 - 14) - 8/6/2020, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 93-68 ATS (+18.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 82-60 ATS (+16.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 74-54 ATS (+14.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 72-53 ATS (+13.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 222-269 ATS (-73.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 6-3 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 6-3 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (42 - 26) vs. PHOENIX (29 - 39) - 8/6/2020, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.
PHOENIX is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
PHOENIX is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more this season.
INDIANA is 75-54 ATS (+15.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
PHOENIX is 54-69 ATS (-21.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 52-69 ATS (-23.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 5-0 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 5-0 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (45 - 22) vs. DALLAS (41 - 29) - 8/6/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 239-297 ATS (-87.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
DALLAS is 84-66 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 41-28 ATS (+10.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 230-181 ATS (+30.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
DALLAS is 69-49 ATS (+15.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 31-22 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
DALLAS is 68-53 ATS (+9.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 84-69 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 59-38 ATS (+17.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 5-4 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 6-3 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (31 - 38) vs. DENVER (45 - 23) - 8/6/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 23-32 ATS (-12.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PORTLAND is 19-30 ATS (-14.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
DENVER is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-33 ATS (-15.3 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 12-5 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 12-6 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
10 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (51 - 16) vs. HOUSTON (42 - 25) - 8/6/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 110-73 ATS (+29.7 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
HOUSTON is 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 50-32 ATS (+14.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 6-4 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 7-3 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 08-06-2020, 10:56 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, August 6

New Orleans @ Sacramento

Game 775-776
August 6, 2020 @ 1:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
120.078
Sacramento
113.689
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 6 1/2
225
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 4 1/2
233 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-4 1/2); Under

Indiana @ Phoenix

Game 779-780
August 6, 2020 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
119.987
Phoenix
119.299
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Phoenix
Even
233
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
by 3
229 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Phoenix
(+3); Over

Miami @ Milwaukee

Game 777-778
August 6, 2020 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
113.965
Milwaukee
125.051
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 11
232
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 8 1/2
222 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-8 1/2); Over

LA Clippers @ Dallas

Game 781-782
August 6, 2020 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Clippers
121.339
Dallas
123.664
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 2 1/2
226
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 4 1/2
231
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+4 1/2); Under

Portland @ Denver

Game 783-784
August 6, 2020 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
123.700
Denver
111.958
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 12
237
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 3 1/2
227 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(-3 1/2); Over

LA Lakers @ Houston

Game 785-786
August 6, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
121.379
Houston
115.690
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 5 1/2
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 1
226 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-1); Under

**Udog** · 08-06-2020, 11:50 AM

NBA Bubble Bets - Thursday
Tony Mejia

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Sacramento Kings

Time/Venue: 1:35 p.m, HP Field House
Records/Bubble Records (SU/ATS): Pelicans 29-38/1-2 (34-31-2, 1-2); Kings 28-39/0-3 (34-31-2, 1-2)
Line: NO -6/233.5, NO ML -200, SAC +165

Line Analysis: The opening line started at 3.5 to 4 points and has been bet up some with early action coming in on the Pels. The total was bet slightly down from 234-234.5 in a number that resides right around where I expected it would be. It closed at 225.5 and was surpassed to the ‘over’ in the Pelicans’ 117-115 win at Golden 1 Center on Jan. 4.

Injuries/Rotational Adjustments to Watch: The Pelicans are playing the first of a back-to-back and will worry about minute restrictions or sitting the likes of Zion Williamson and Derrick Favors after this one is in the books. Williamson played 25 minutes in Monday’s win over Memphis, the most he’s played in a game since Jan. 8. The Kings have all hands on deck as well.

Handicapping Notes: In Richaun Holmes and fellow Dukie Harry Giles, the Kings do have athletes who can at least make Williamson work around the basket, while the Pels will look to keep Fox from attacking early and getting teammates going. That could be an issue given that New Orleans’ up-and-down style is exactly what Fox prefers. He’s averaging 26.7 points and 6.0 assists thus far despite shooting just 3-for-15 from 3-point range. If he, Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic find the range, Sacramento could surprise.

Nothin’ But Bet: Hield had 24 points and a team-high 12 boards in an active performance in the 117-115 loss early in 2020 and should be aggressive against the team that drafted him in an elimination game. Ride the ‘over’ on 16.5 points (-113).

Indiana Pacers vs. Phoenix Suns

Time/Venue: 2:35 p.m. ET, Visa Athletic Center
Records/Bubble Records (SU/ATS): Pacers 42-26/3-0 (37-28-3, 3-0); Suns 29-39/3-0 (32-35-1, 3-0)
Line: IND -3/229, IND -148 ML, PHX +126

Line Analysis: There looks to be value in riding the Suns on the money line since the Pacers being favored by a three-spot is exactly what I expected but the return on a Phoenix outright win offers a higher profit than anticipated.

Indiana beat the Suns in Phoenix 112-87 the only time these teams got together during the regular season back on Jan. 22. The Pacers closed as a one-point road favorite and the total fell shy of the closing figure of 221.5.

Injuries/Rotational Adjustments to Watch: Domantas Sabonis remains sidelined and will be missed considering he finished with 24 points and 13 rebounds in that first matchup. Malcolm Brogdon’s neck isn’t expected to be an issue, while Victor Oladipo also seems to be playing without much discomfort.
active and making Kristaps Porzingis work on the defensive end.

Handicapping Notes: Devin Booker has been this sharp all season, so him beating Kawhi Leonard and Paul George for a game-winner was no fluke. Phoenix shot 4-for-20 from 3-point range in their loss to Indiana and will be looking to get going there. Without Kelly Oubre (knee) available, the Suns will have to rely on Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson to slow down Bubble MVP T.J. Warren, who has averaged just shy of 40 points per game through the first three contests in Orlando. He led the Pacers with 25 points in their win over the Suns.

Nothin’ But Bet: Myles Turner has been more assertive offensively without Sabonis in the mix and is especially aggressive getting out on the perimeter. Look for him to pull Deandre Ayton away from the rim by attempting a number of 3-pointers. I think he’ll hit at least two, which will go ‘over’ FanDuel’s number in their prop on Turner trifectas at a nice return rate of +134.

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Time/Venue: 4:05 p.m. ET, ESPN Wide World of Sports Arena
Records/Bubble Records (SU/ATS): Heat 43-25/2-1 (35-31-2, 2-1); Bucks 54-14/1-2 (37-31, 1-2)
Line: MIL -8.5/*** MIL -380 ML, MIA +300

Line Analysis: There was no total on this as of the early morning when this was written, but I would imagine it winds up in the low 220s. Jimmy Butler’s absence was known since he ruled out and has been baked into the line, but expect the Heat to end up getting double-digits if Goran Dragic can’t go.

Totals in this series were set at 223 and 227.5 for Miami’s regular-season upsets of the Bucks. The Heat won as an 11.5-point underdog on Oct. 26 at Fiserv Forum and rolled 105-89 in South Florida on March 2 while getting five points.

Injuries/Rotational Adjustments to Watch: Butler won’t play due to right foot soreness as he’s clearly gearing up to try and be 100 percent for his duel against Indiana’s Warren. Dragic’s x-rays on an ankle sprain suffered late in Tuesday’s win over Boston came back negative but he’s listed as questionable. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton didn’t play in the second half of Tuesday’s loss to the Nets, so this will be the first time they’ll play with the recovered Eric Bledsoe for longer than a few stretches of going through the motions. Bledsoe reported he was asymptomatic but struggled getting clean tests to rejoin the team following a bout with COVID-19. Pat Connaughton has returned too.

Handicapping Notes: Bam Adebayo vs. Antetokounmpo will be worth the price of admission and should give you pause in jumping on Milwaukee despite the Heat coming in shorthanded. Still, without Butler to offer a different look, Adebayo could have his hands full if he’s taken out of his game the way he was by Toronto. Adebayo was extremely aggressive to compensate and set the tone for the Butler-less upset of Boston, so he’ll be the x-factor here. Getting strong games from rookie guards Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn will likely also be essential to Miami’s chances.

Nothin’ But Bet: Let’s get crazy and chase a big payday here. Back Brook Lopez to score the game’s first basket in a Bucks’ win (+1300, FanDuel).

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks

Time/Venue: 6:35 p.m. ET, HP Field House
Records/Bubble Records (SU/ATS): Clippers 45-22/1-2 (36-31, 2-1); Mavs 41-29/1-2 (35-32-3, 0-3)
Line: LAC -4/231, LAC ML -174, DAL +146

Line Analysis: While the spread looks right about where I expected, the total is much higher than anticipated. The Mavs do own the NBA’s most efficient offense, but the Clippers are very capable of locking teams up. L.A.’s totals in the last three games have all hovered in the low 230s, while Dallas’ have been in the 232.5-236.5 range but have come in ‘under’ in two straight.

Injuries/Rotational Adjustments to Watch: The Clippers will play without point guard Patrick Beverley, who is out due to calf soreness. Key reserve big man Montrezl Harrell remains out, having lost his grandmother while being away from the team. He’s expected to be in the mix at some point but won’t play here. The Mavs are expected to again be without shooter Seth Curry, who sat the other night with a leg injury and is considered doubtful. Small guards J.J. Barea and Trey Burke are expected to fill in.

Handicapping Notes: The Mavs are looking for their first win in three tries against the Clippers, so this sets up nicely as Luka Doncic squaring off with two guys who would look to make his life miserable in a series in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Doncic shot just 40 percent in the two losses to the Clips, averaging 29 points, nine rebounds and 7.5 assists. He shot just 15 percent from 3-point range, so count on Doc Rivers playing up on him to try and keep him from gaining his bearings on the perimeter.

Nothin’ But Bet: Dorian Finney-Smith had a huge game on the boards in his most recent outing and has become one of Rick Carlisle’s favorite players due to his attention to all the dirty work. While him getting in foul trouble is a concern, it’s impossible not to ride the ‘over’ on 5.5 rebounds set at FanDuel (-146).

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets

Time/Venue: 8:05 p.m. ET ESPN, Visa Athletic Center
Records/Bubble Records (SU/ATS): Blazers 31-38/2-1 (29-37-3, 2-0-1); Nuggets 45-23/2-1 (31-33-4, 2-1)
Line: POR -4/***, POR ML -176, DEN +148

Line Analysis: The Blazers are benefiting from being the fresher group considering the Nuggets were extended by San Antonio on Wednesday. Portland was also so effective against Houston that one could argue this line is inflated, but sense of urgency is definitely in the Blazers’ favor since they’ve moved into the coveted ninth spot in the Western Conference playoff picture but have plenty of teams on their heels. It remains to be seen if Denver head coach Michael Malone holds anyone out on the second of a back-to-back.

Injuries/Rotational Adjustments to Watch: Starting guards Jamal Murray and Gary Harris have yet to play in Orlando, but Murray appears close. Returning to face the Blazers’ star-studded backcourt would provide a huge boost. Wing Will Barton remains out as well. Portland is healthy and has multiple guys producing at a high level since Carmelo Anthony has produced efficiently and Gary Trent Jr. has been a revelation.

Michael Porter Jr. and Jerami Grant have each excelled in heightened roles due to having the ball in their hands more with Murray and Barton out. Both have thrived from beyond the arc, which could turn this game into a track meet if that continues.

Handicapping Notes: The Nuggets won both regular-season meetings against the Blazers, which certainly adds fuel to the fire for Portland, which envisioned fighting the Nuggets for the Northwest Division this late in the season. Instead, the Blazers find themselves looking for a shot at a No. 8 seed and a date with the Lakers. With games against the Clippers, 76ers and Mavs on deck, this one almost feels like a must-win considering Denver could pull back the reins since its playing on consecutive days with a short-handed roster.

Nothin’ But Bet: Jusuf Nurkic was run out of Denver by Nikola Jokic’s development. Although the two are friendly, you know a healthy and rejuvenated Nurkic will go right at his former teammate. Ride the ‘over’ on him scoring 17.5 points in this one. (-104).

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets

Time/Venue: 9:05 p.m. ET, ESPN Wide World of Sports Arena
Records/Bubble Records (SU/ATS): Lakers 51-16/2-2 (36-30-1, 1-3); Rockets 42-25/2-1 (31-36, 2-1)
Line: LAL -1.5/***, LAL ML -126, LAL +108

Line Analysis: The Lakers didn’t show much life against a Thunder team that suffocated them from the jump, so it’s surprising to see them favored here despite Houston guard Russell Westbrook listed as questionable (quad). Although neither team “needs” this game, you can definitely buy the sense of urgency angle for the Rockets more than an L.A. squad that has just about wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. There has been no talk about any of the Lakers stars resting.

Injuries/Rotational Adjustments to Watch: Expect this line to shift if and when we get definitve news on Westbrook. L.A.’s Anthony Davis scored just nine points in the loss to Oklahoma City, while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope suffered a blow to his side that required treatment, so it remains to be seen how he felt this morning. James may play in a back-to-back, but his minutes could very well be limited since this game doesn’t mean much. L.A. head coach Frank Vogel does expect to have Dwight Howard back after he sat out with knee soreness on Wednesday.

Handicapping Notes: It’s always a party when these teams get together since L.A. natives James Harden and Westbrook relish taking down the Purple and Gold. James takes these games as personal challenges as a result, but I’m not sure that intensity is going to translate to the bubble with the Lakers becoming the first team to cross the halfway point in playing their fifth game on the Disney Wide World of Sports campus. The total for the most recent meeting was set a 239.5 but is unlikely to get up that high for this one.

Nothin’ But Bet: A Harden first basket in a Houston win “double” pays +1100 at FanDuel and would be worth a look given all the uncertainty in place.

**Udog** · 08-06-2020, 12:39 PM

Hoop Trends for Thursday August 6
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day
L.A. Clippers at Dallas (6:35 p.m. ET)

-- The Clippers are 10-0 ATS (12.50 ppg) with rest off a loss as a favorite.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
L.A. Lakers at Houston (9:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Rockets are 0-10 ATS (-8.95 ppg) after they had less than 40% of the total rebounds last game. team=Rockets and

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day
New Orleans at Sacramento (1:35 p.m. ET)

-- The Kings are 11-0 OU (12.45 ppg) with rest after they had less than 15% of their points from free throws last game.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day
Indiana at Phoenix (4:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Pacers are 0-9 OU (-15.56 ppg) with less than two days rest off a win as a dog in which they never trailed.

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Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 8/6

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 8/6

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