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**Udog** · 07-30-2020, 08:51 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Prop bets for the Las Vegas Raiders this season:
— Over/under: Gross passing yards for Derek Carr- 3149.5
— Over/under TD passes for Derek Carr- 17.5
— Interceptions thrown by David Carr: 8.5 (under -130)
— Over/under rushing yards for Josh Jacobs: 1149.5
— Over/under receptions for Henry Ruggs III: 49.5
— Over/under receptions for Darren Waller: 69.5

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 150,402
Please wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) Dodgers 4, Astros 3 (13)— The new extra innings runs is supposed to prevent 13-inning games, but Dodgers were 2-15 with RISP, Houston 3-19- hard to score runs that way.

Dodger reliever Joe Kelly got an 8-game suspension for his antics Tuesday night, when he threw at two Astros hitters. In a 60-game season, that’s a long suspension.

12) Astros had been favored in 80 consecutive regular season games, before losing the last two nights to the Dodgers as home underdogs.

11) Philadelphia Phillies got the go-ahead to play ball again, will resume with a doubleheader at home against the Buffalo Blue Jays Saturday. Those games will be Blue Jay “home” games; they will bat last, but the games are in Philly.

10) Washington Nationals’ OF Juan Soto also got the OK to play ball, good news for the defending champs.

9) Giants 7, Padres 6- San Diego led 6-3 in 8th inning but blew the lead and Mike Yastrzemski walked it off with a leadoff homer in the 9th.

8) Good news for the Atlanta Braves; veteran OF Nick Markakis originally opted out of this season, but now has changed his mind and will play ball for the Braves.

7) Nevada sports books lost $453,000 for the month of June, the first time in almost seven years (83 months) that they showed red ink over an entire month.

6) Mets’ rookie SS Andres Gimenez got his first major league hit Wednesday night, a big night for him, and later added a triple. He also got picked off after the first hit, but it had to be an exciting night for the young man.

5) Rangers 7, Arizona 4— Lance Lynn blanked Arizona for six innings, allowing only three baserunners. Diamondbacks fouled off 32 of his 102 pitches; they got only one hit on the 55 swings they took against him.

4) Washington 4, Toronto 0 (10)— Max Scherzer and rookie Nate Pearson had a great pitching duel; game was scoreless after nine innings, before the Nationals posted a 4-spot in the top of the 10th inning.

3) Rosters are 30 right now; in about three weeks they’ll be down tp 26, and then there will be more of a strain will be put on bullpens, with four less bodies on each bench.

2) If the playoffs started Thursday morning (they don’t), playoff teams would be:
AL: Bronx, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Cleveland, Houston, Oakland, Detroit, Toronto
NL: Miami, Atlanta, Chicago, Milwaukee, Colorado, Los Angeles, San Diego, New York

1) RIP to veteran basketball coach Lou Henson 88; he is best known for coaching Illinois, where he won 423 games in 21 years. He also coached at New Mexico State for 17 years.

RIP to former big league manager John McNamara, 88; he managed six teams, but was best known for being the Red Sox’ skipper in 1986.

**Udog** · 07-30-2020, 08:53 AM

701UTAH -702 NEW ORLEANS
UTAH is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) in road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

703LA CLIPPERS -704 LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 13-2 ATS (10.8 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the current season.

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, July 30

Utah @ New Orleans

Game 701-702
July 30, 2020 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
116.614
New Orleans
120.771
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 4
217
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 1
220 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-1); Under

LA Clippers @ LA Lakers

Game 703-704
July 30, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Clippers
128.091
LA Lakers
124.430
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 3 1/2
227
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
Even
218 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, July 30

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UTAH (41 - 23) vs. NEW ORLEANS (28 - 36) - 7/30/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 93-70 ATS (+16.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 52-78 ATS (-33.8 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 6-4 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 7-3 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (44 - 20) vs. LA LAKERS (49 - 14) - 7/30/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 238-297 ATS (-88.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 30-20 ATS (+8.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
LA LAKERS are 29-20 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 82-68 ATS (+7.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 38-24 ATS (+11.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 7-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 7-4 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Thursday, July 30

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Trend Report
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New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 11 of New Orleans's last 16 games at home
New Orleans is 7-15-3 ATS in its last 25 games when playing Utah
New Orleans is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing Utah
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing Utah
New Orleans is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games when playing at home against Utah
New Orleans is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Utah
The total has gone OVER in 12 of New Orleans's last 13 games when playing at home against Utah
Utah Jazz
Utah is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
Utah is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Utah is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Utah's last 14 games on the road
Utah is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Utah's last 8 games when playing New Orleans
Utah is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Utah is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Utah's last 13 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

Los Angeles Lakers
LA Lakers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Lakers is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Lakers's last 8 games
LA Lakers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
LA Lakers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Lakers's last 8 games at home
LA Lakers is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Lakers's last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
LA Lakers is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
LA Lakers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Lakers's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Los Angeles Clippers
LA Clippers is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
LA Clippers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Clippers's last 9 games
LA Clippers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
LA Clippers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 7 games on the road
LA Clippers is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
LA Clippers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Clippers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers

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**Udog** · 07-30-2020, 08:53 AM

NBA Weekly Essentials
Tony Mejia

NBA Bubble Has Yet to Burst as Season Approaches

With most teams getting set to conclude scrimmage play, the NBA is preparing to resume a regular season that was put on pause the evening of March 11 when Utah center Rudy Gobert tested positive for the coronavirus. Although there have been a number of instances where players had to leave the league bubble at Disney's Wide World of Sports, no one tested positive in last week's round of testing.

Players who did contract COVID-19 like Russell Westbrook, Eric Bledsoe, Pat Connaughton and Harrison Barnes all stayed back to deal with their illnesses before reporting and quarantined upon return. Clippers sixth man Lou Williams got himself a 10-day quarantine since he couldn't resist stopping by Atlanta's Magic City for some chicken wings - not a euphemism - and got caught.

Pelicans rookie star Zion Williamson returned to the bubble in time to be ready for Thursday's season opener while Clippers Patrick Beverley and Montrezl Harrell, unlike Williams, are also likely to be available for the opener against the Lakers.

Indiana's Domantas Sabonis had to leave to deal with a bad case of plantar fasciitis in his foot that may ultimately end his season. Cursed Sacramento forward Marvin Bagley III was set to serve as his team's go-to guy but got his ankle stepped on in practice and won't be able lead the Kings' playoff push. Memphis' Justise Winslow injured a hip in practice and was shut down.

That's it as far as the negative goes. NBA basketball returned via scrimmages inside three arenas that the league has really done a nice job dressing up to give it a terrific feel despite the absence of fans. There have been some blowouts and instances of sloppy play, but for the most part, the best players in the world have brought fresh legs and their A-game to the bubble. Only a few guys reported out of shape. Game on! Here's what to watch in this opening week.

Thursday - 2 games

Jazz vs. Pelicans (-3, 220.5), 6:30 p.m. ET
Gobert and the Jazz are first up, which is definitely an interesting way to hit the unpause button. We were joined by the Athletic's Tony Jones on the "Bet and Collect" podcast to detail the relationship between Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, who also contracted the virus and was openly annoyed with his teammate. The pair has looked sharp in scrimmages, and this group really needs to get off to a strong start since five of their next six opponents are likely playoff-bound.

This spread opened as a pick'em but New Orleans quickly got money behind it as the betting favorite. With Williamson returning to the bubble in time to start and Derrick Favors around to try and neutralize Gobert and his former team, it's not surprising that the 10th-ranked team in the West would be favored over the team currently in fourth. Top shooter Bojan Bogdanovic wasn't able to join Utah after wrist surgery, so we'll see who steps up for this new-look Jazz squad.

If Mike Conley can't improve on what has been a disappointing first season, Utah could take a significant step backwards. Conley struggled against the Heat last week and will likely have his hands full with Jrue Holiday.

Clippers vs. Lakers (-4/216.5), 9 p.m. ET
Harrell and Beverley are expected to play for L.A. The same goes for center Ivica Zubac and shooter Landry Shamet, who both were late in arriving to the NBA campus. With limited practice time and Williams sidelined, there's no question that the Clippers likely won't be as sharp as they'll be in a few weeks when the playoffs begin.

Anthony Davis got poked in the eye over the weekend but will be in the mix. In case you've missed highlights, LeBron James arrived in Orlando in phenomenal shape. He's running the floor with great power and outside of the new patches of gray in his beard, doesn't look like someone with 17 years of pro mileage under his belt. The Lakers have also seen Kyle Kuzma shoot the ball exceptionally well. If he's able to be a more efficient force off the bench, L.A. may step it up a level.

Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley are out, but Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been an asset in a starting lineup in which James is essentially the point guard. Alex Caruso, J.R. Smith, Quinn Cook and Dion Waiters are competing for minutes off the bench.

Friday - 6 games

Magic vs. Nets, 2:30 p.m. ET
Brooklyn got squashed by 31 points in its first scrimmage but bounced back and beat the Spurs next time out. Jonathan Isaac is set to play for the first time in months and should be part of the equation for Orlando, increasing its chances of ultimately finishing as the No. 7 seed. There's no line on this one as of Monday but it could approach double-digits. A Magic win allows them to leapfrog the Nets in the Eastern Conference standings.

Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers (-2, 222.5), 4 p.m. ET
Jaren Jackson, Jr. is back for Memphis to team with Ja Morant, while center Jonas Valanciunas reported in excellent shape. Portland will be looking to send a message that it is coming for that final West playoff spot and has seen center Jusuf Nurkic excel in his return from a broken leg. Damian Lillard has been dealing with foot inflammation but is expected to be ready when the lights come on, setting up a great matchup out of the gate against Morant.

Suns (-7, 225.5) vs. Wizards, 4 p.m. ET
Kelly Oubre Jr. hasn't suited up yet due to his knee injury but may ultimately play. In his absence, second-year forward Mikal Bridges has really stepped up as a glue guy alongside Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. Ricky Rubio has also recovered from a bout with COVID-19 and should start, which spells trouble for the lowest-rated team in the bubble. The Wizards have lost to the Nuggets and Clippers in scrimmages but haven't been embarrassed.

Celtics vs. Bucks (-4.5, 217.5), 6:30 p.m. ET
All eyes will be on this first meeting between the Eastern Conference's favorite and one of the teams most likely to dethrone them. Kemba Walker's knee soreness from February turned into a pain on the side so he will likely be on a minutes restriction. Bledsoe has returned to practice and will get one scrimmage under his belt following his bout with COVID-19. Be on the lookout for props on Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Jayson Tatum.

Kings (-2.5, 216) vs. Spurs, 8 p.m. ET
Sacramento point guard De'Aaron Fox has returned from an ankle sprain but didn't look like himself. Sacramento had a COVID-19 outbreak throughout its group so the team is definitely behind where it hoped to be. Barnes just arrived at the campus and could see minutes immediately. Kent Bazemore has been the Kings' most effective player. DeMar DeRozan shot 2-for-8 in that bad loss to the Nets and needs to be San Antonio's leader on the floor to overcome LaMarcus Aldridge's absence.

Rockets (-1, 225.5) vs. Mavericks, 9 p.m. ET
Westbrook is back in action and James Harden looks like a more effectively version of himself now that he's in prime shape, so we're going to see if these Rockets can ride fresh legs to championship contention right out of the gate. Dallas has depth issues but Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis will be a handful for everyone and shooters Tim Hardaway Jr. and Seth Curry will get plenty of open looks. 7-foot-4 center Boban Marjanovic went for 17 points and 13 boards in a win over the Lakers in scrimmage play and could be the x-factor.

Saturday - 5 games

Heat vs. Nuggets (-2, 222.5), 1 p.m. ET
Two teams who hope to stun the world with a run to the Finals square off in a game where I believe the wrong team is favored.

Jazz vs. Thunder, 3:30 p.m. ET
OKC has defeated the Celtics and 76ers despite Chris Paul shooting 3-for-11. They have defensive standout Andre Roberson back after years trying to get healthy again.

Pelicans vs. Clippers, 6:30 p.m. ET
New Orleans' playoff push will certainly benefit from Williams' absence and L.A. being behind schedule due to its roster being in flux. The Clips should still be favored but it won't be by much.

76ers (-4, 210) vs. Pacers, 7 p.m. ET
Expect this number to rise as tip-off approaches if Sabonis is indeed ruled out. It looks like Victor Oladipo will ultimately participate for Indiana, which makes it more formidable. Philadelphia has seen Ben Simmons arrive with a more aggressive frame of mind, which includes firing up shots from the perimeter to keep defenses honest. We'll see if that continues in games that count.

Lakers vs. Raptors, 8:30 p.m. ET
That Toronto will see its old nemesis LeBron as it begins its title defense seems fitting. A slimmer Marc Gasol looks formidable and emerging star Pascal Siakam will have his sights set on proving himself against James, but the Raptors' chances of winning this one may hinge on whether Fred VanVleet can return after limping off with a banged-up knee over the weekend.

Sunday - 6 games

Wizards vs. Nets, 2 p.m. ET
The two most unwatchable teams in the bubble scrap.

Trail Blazers vs. Celtics, 3:30 p.m. ET
If Portland can pull off this upset, the Pelicans will have their hands full leaping into the No. 9 seed and play-in action for the West's final playoff spot.

Spurs vs. Grizzlies, 4 p.m. ET
Given its tough schedule, this is a must-win for Memphis if it is going to hang on to the No. 8 seed.

Kings vs. Magic, 6 p.m. ET
Orlando should have Markelle Fultz in place, which sets up an intriguing matchup against Sacramento's Fox.

Bucks vs. Rockets, 8:30 p.m. ET
Hopefully this Sunday night special lives up to its potential. Milwaukee won the first meeting in Houston 117-111 in its season opener a lifetime ago on Oct. 24.

Mavericks vs. Suns, 9 p.m. ET
Phoenix is interested in doing more than playing spoiler in Orlando and will need an early upset like this one after presumably handling the Wizards to inspire confidence within their young group.

**Udog** · 07-30-2020, 08:54 AM

How to Bet the NBA Reseeding Games
Matt Blunt

Handicapping the Bubble
Reseeding Games

NBA games will be here before you know it, and with the eight-game sprint to the finish of the “regular” season, the scheduling angles are always interesting to look at. I'm not talking about the strength of schedule discussions either as those can go on for awhile with some teams.

But the fact that every game but one, for every team, is on a single's day rest, we can at least take a look at how these teams did in that specific scenario. Granted, the season that produced these numbers feels like a lifetime ago, but the rosters haven't really changed and their may be some edges to be had.

This whole bubble ordeal will pull out some interesting numbers that could be potentially used as the best baseline ones for future seasons that resemble past ones (with fans, travel etc) because this is about as perfect of a controlled variable state you'll get for a sports league. It's the same thing for every team across the board (no travel, same accommodations, no fans) and some of the league average numbers this eight-game sprint produces will be interesting to ******.

But with seven of the eight games for everybody being in a spot that's got some decent data from the year, and the lone outlier being a unique scenario too with it always being a back-to-back, there are plenty of talking points for the best and worst of the bunch in those spots this year, and if you're a fan of the defending champs, wagering on your favorite team shouldn't be that hard to do.

NBA SU & ATS Results
One Day of Rest

The Best of the Best

Toronto 25-13 (65.8%)
Oklahoma City 25-16 (61%)
Indiana 26-17-3 (60.5%)
Boston 24-16-2 (60%)
L.A. Clippers 23-16 (59%)

Canadian Cash?

The Toronto Raptors being the best team against the spread (ATS) with one day off will be tested in this bubble, as they are a team that got dealt one of the tougher hands from a strength of schedule perspective.

However, it could present some decent numbers on a team that understands how to be at their best in this situation. Toronto is already lined at +4 for their opener vs the Lakers – although that's not technically a game with a lone day off before, and will be catching points against a few other teams as well. The Raptors were 2nd in straight up (SU) winning percentage in this spot when compared to the rest of the field, as a 30-8 SU record in those contests (79%) trailed only Milwaukee's 35-8 SU mark.

Taking it a step further, Toronto's also got the 4th best 'over' percentage of the remaining teams in games after a single's day rest at 60.5% (23-15 O/U). I'm not sure if playing the Raptors ATS and Raptors games 'over' the number as standing wagers for these six games is the best way to go about it, but I'm sure there are plenty of Raptors fans who will have no problem going that route. There's at least some quality numbers in support of that method if that's the case.

Looking at the rest of the teams on the list above, it is interesting to see five teams total at 59% or better. Boston and Toronto only play each other of the teams listed, so that's six games where each will have the ATS edge historically in these games with one day in-between. The L.A. Clippers will only see Oklahoma City, and vice versa – it's also the last game for both – while Indiana has no crossovers and will always have a case to be made for taking them with their 60.5% success rate ATS.

Other Notes for 1 day off games

If bettors are looking for another team to hone in on and potentially double up their wagers on both side and total in the restart, San Antonio games would be a good place to start. The Spurs tied with New Orleans for the lowest outright winning percentage off a day off at 34.2%, were the worst against the number at 16-24-1 ATS, and finished 3rd in 'over' percentage at 63.4% (26-15 O/U).

Looking at going 'over' the number in Spurs games and backing San Antonio's opponent would historically be the way to go there, and with San Antonio's chances of hanging around for longer than eight games already slim, this could be an angle that pays off quite well.

The Lakers are a team that will get more coverage in the back-to-back spot, but they were the best 'under' team of the bunch during the regular season (56.4%). Even the Houston Rockets, a team most wouldn't typically associate with 'unders' clocked in 4th in that regard at 19-22 O/U (53.7%), as they had put up quite the stat line.

Houston was 28-13 SU with a day off, but 19-22 ATS and 19-22 O/U in those 41 games. So if you are ever looking to fade a team that might not cover a favorite spread that feels a little high, Houston's likely a good candidate.

Over-Under Results
One Day of Rest

Back-to-Back Spots

All 22 NBA teams in the Orlando bubble will play one game on zero days rest during their eight-game slate in the reseeding matchups.

NBA ATS Records
Zero Days Off (2019-20)

L.A. Lakers 7-1
Oklahoma City 8-2
Washington 7-2-1
New Orleans 7-2-1
Sacramento 7-2-1
Memphis 7-3
Milwaukee 7-3

Obviously these are going to be a much smaller sample size and numbers will look a bit better, but with how the schedule works, these are literally games you can mark off right now as potential leans. The Los Angeles Lakers were a perfect 8-0 SU for instance, and their 2nd opponent in as many nights is Houston on August 6th.

The Rockets were that team I mentioned that won SU way more often than they covered ATS in those single day off spots, and here they face one of the best teams in the league in general, in their best role on the season. Interesting to see what number gets posted there for sure.

Seeing a team like Washington make that list is also interesting in the sense that who knows how interested the Wizards are in giving their all considering their long shot odds to hang around, and they do face Indiana on August 3rd in their back-to-back spot. The Pacers were a team who made that earlier list so it's strength on strength historically, but the 'over' may actually be the way to go for that game. Indiana was 26-20 O/U in their specific role, while Washington put up a 6-3 O/U record in their role.

Going through all the rest of the schedules can be fun as well, but how big the number Milwaukee lays in their back-to-back will be interesting. The Bucks have Washington to deal with in this spot, so you already know a first vs worst battle brings a lofty spread. The Bucks 7-3 ATS record is probably worth a at least a bit of shade, and whether or not the Wizards have already packed it in on August 11th has to be considered as well.

But Milwaukee's opponent the day prior just happens to be the Toronto Raptors, and the seeds of that budding rivalry have already been planted. Remember, Milwaukee may have things already wrapped up by then too, so make sure to consider all the context you can when that line rolls out to the board.

Other Notes for Back-to-Backs

Philadelphia wasn't among the best ATS records at 5-3-2, but they were 8-2 SU in those games during the year, and went 7-2-1 O/U in those spots as well. The Sixers get to face Toronto in their second game in as many nights, and I've already noted that the Raptors were one of the better 'over' teams with a day off too.

Toronto and Philly went 0-2-1 O/U in their three regular season meetings, but this unique set-up for their fourth might be the best opportunity to flip the script on those totals yet. Philly's 77% over clip made them the best 'over' bet of the remaining teams in the latter half of a back-to-back, while their Atlantic Division rival Brooklyn was the worst with a 2-7 O/U record in those spots. The Nets play Boston the night after facing Milwaukee when they are up here, so keep that Nets/Celtics 'under' on the tip of your tongue as well.

Finally, this is not meant to look like I'm picking on the Houston Rockets, but at 3-6 SU and ATS in their back-to-back's during the year, they've found themselves in a losing role for their outlier game as well. Those numbers from this season would suggest looking to fade Houston as a general place to start could likely turn out profitable, and they'll have do deal with Indiana in their time on this clock, and we already know market results prefer the Pacers in their 1-day off role as it is.

**Udog** · 07-30-2020, 09:11 AM

NBA public betting, line movement, sharp money for July 30
Patrick Everson

NBA betting odds are finally back on the board, and Thursday night’s two-game tipoff is seeing early action. The Utah Jazz and New Orleans Pelicans are the appetizer at the NBA Bubble in Orlando, with the Battle of Los Angeles, the Clippers and Lakers as the main course.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s matchups. Covers will update this action report with NBA sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

NBA line movement

UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: CG Technology books in Las Vegas opened the Pelicans -2 against the Jazz and moved to -2.5. The Lakers opened -1.5 against the Clippers, and LeBron James and Co. got bet up to -4.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET TUESDAY: With concerns about Anthony Davis' eye injury, PointsBet USA took the Clippers-Lakers game off the board for the moment. Reports indicated Davis might sit out the Lakers' Thursday night opener. "We're waiting for clarity," PointsBet USA's Patrick Eichner said.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Lakers star Anthony Davis, who got poked in the eye during a Saturday scrimmage, didn't practice Tuesday, and there's a chance he might have to sit out the Thursday night opener against the Clippers. John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook at Westgate, said that information prompted his shop to adjust the line a tick. The Lakers tipped from -4.5 to -4.

---

The Jazz opened -2.5 at Caesars for Thursday’s 6:30 p.m. ET matchup. However, the game is currently off the board due to the unknown status of Zion Williamson. The rookie standout had to leave the NBA Bubble for a family medical issue, and he returned Friday night, starting a four-day quarantine period.

In the 9 p.m. ET nightcap, Caesars opened the Clippers-Lakers at pick, but LeBron James and Co. are now up to -4.5.

It wasn’t just the two Thursday contests getting speedy sharp money, but every reopening matchup from Thursday through Saturday. And all in one market, according to Caesars sportsbooks director of trading Jeff Davis.

“Sharp money came in on the Under on every single first game,” Davis said of action on totals at Caesars books.

The Clippers-Lakers total went from 220 to 216.5, and Jazz-Pelicans went from 222.5 to 220.5 before that game came off the board. Davis said sharp money also landed on Lakers +1 earlier this month.

NBA public betting

UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Said CG Tech director of bookmaking operations Tony DiTommaso: "They laid 2 and 2.5 with the Pelicans. We're still at 2.5, but we'll probably go to 3. They're also betting the over." The Jazz-Pelicans total shifted from 221 to 222.5. And in the Clippers-Lakers game, bettors took 1.5 with the Clippers early. "They should've waited," DiTommaso said, noting the public has since bet the Lakers up to -4.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET TUESDAY: William Hill US currently has Jazz-Pelicans off the board, wanting to make certain of New Orleans rookie Zion Williamson's status. But director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said his shop has a rooting interest. "We're definitely high on the Pelicans. We need the Jazz. The Pelicans are a popular team right now." As for the Clippers-Lakers nightcap, in which LeBron and Co. are laying 4 points, Bogdanovich said straight bets are running even, but the Lakers are drawing more parlay dollars.

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The bulk of line movement in the Clippers-Lakers clash has come in the last five days at Caesars books, and it’s been one-sided as the Lakers moved from -1 Wednesday to -4.5 by Sunday.

“The public is on the Lakers,” Davis said.

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Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 7/30

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 7/30

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