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**Udog** · 02-27-2020, 07:52 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Odds to win the PGA’s Honda Classic this week:

12-1— Brooks Koepka, Tommy Fleetwood

14-1— Rickie Fowler

25-1— Holland, Oosthuizen, Rose, Woodland

30-1— Daniel Berger, Billy Horschel, Sungjae Im

40-1— Shane Lowry

50-1— Joaquin Niemann, Erik Van Rooyen

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) Maryland 74, Minnesota 73— Terps have won 10 of their last 11 games; they were down 16 at halftime in this game. Maryland outscored Minnesota 5-0 over final 0:31. Terps led this game for all of 0:24, but they were the right 0:24.

Richard Pitino has been Minnesota’s coach for seven years; they’re 125-106 under Pitino, but only 47-80 in conference games, 1-2 in NCAA tourney games.

If Minnesota/Pitino part ways, the Gophers have to hire Louisville assistant Luke Murray, just so his father, the great comedian Bill Murray, would finally have to root for the Gophers.

12) I think ESPN’s work has mostly gone downhill the last several years, but one thing that remains a quality product is when Scott Van Pelt does the late SportsCenter; his “Bad Beats” segment is an one, especially if you enjoy handicapping.

Couple of years ago, I’m waiting for a friend to finish work at a sportsbook in Las Vegas; it is just before midnight on Christmas Eve, so there were maybe ten of us scattered about sitting there, watching the late SportsCenter, when Bad Beats came on.

When you’re sitting by yourself in a casino on Christmas Eve, it ain’t exactly the highlight of the social season, but the next few minutes were filled with laughter and a few groans as Van Pelt went over some agonizing wagering losses from the past few days. One guy starting yelling about the coach who cost him one big wager; his buddies laughed at him. Good stuff.

11) Arkansas 86, Tennessee 69— Razorbacks have Isaiah Joe back in lineup; they went 0-5 when he was out hurt. Joe scored 22 in this game, going 12-12 on foul line.

10) Penn State 65, Rutgers 64— Nittany Lions blew a 21-point lead, then won the game on a 3-pointer with 0:28 left. PSU was only 14-22 on foul line; Rutgers was 6-11. Scarlet Knights lost six of their last eight games, look like they’re headed to the NIT.

9) South Carolina 94, Georgia 90 OT— I once walked past Gamecocks’ coach Frank Martin at an AAU tournament in Florida; the guy looks like he has a set of NFL shoulder pads under his skin, he is that big. Very large, strong-looking person.

During games, Martin has a scowl that makes me straighten up in my chair sitting at home in my living room. I would not want Frank Martin to be mad at me. Ever.

South Carolina won this game, despite going 23-37 on foul line, which made Martin frown a few times; Gamecocks are 9-4 in their last 13 games- they can see the bubble from where they are, but they’re not quite there yet.

8) Much like the swallows returning to Capistrano each spring, Giancarlos Stanton is hurt again, and will likely miss Opening Day. He has a calf strain now. Oy.

Stanton is making $26M this year; he played in 18 games LY. He’s played in 130+ games four times in his 10-year major league career.

Does he train properly? Does he lift weights too much? One of the great abilities is availability, and Stanton is unavailable way too often.

7) Upsets:
— Binghamton (+9) 76, UMBC 74
— Hartford (+7.5) 65, Stony Brook 54
— UMass (+5.5) 60, VCU 52
— Lehigh (+5) 57, Boston U 55
— Duquesne (+4.5) 81, St Bonaventure 77 OT
— Furman (+4.5) 81, NC-Greensboro 67

6) Florida 81, LSU 66— Florida’s coach is Mike White, whose dad is the AD at Duke. White’s family moved around a lot when he was a kid, as his dad kept getting better jobs. They said on this broadcast that when he was a kid, Mike White lived in 14 different states!!!!

I’ve lived in four houses/apartments my whole life, all within 20 miles of each other.

5) UNLV 76, Boise State 66— Rebels are hot, winning last four games, including giving San Diego State its only loss of the season. You watch UNLV play; their players are moving well without the ball, creating easy baskets. A much improved team that is now in 4th place in the Mountain West.

By the way, they moved the Mountain West tournament up a week this year; it is next week, possibly to avoid competition with the Pac-12 tournament at T-Mobile Arena.

4) Furman 81, NC-Greensboro 67— Road team won both series games this year; these teams are likely to meet again, in SoCon semi-finals. SoCon is an underrated league that needs more TV time.

3) Cavaliers 108, 76ers 94— Joel Embiid (shoulder) left this game early; with Ben Simmons already out, going to be.a rough few weeks for the Sixers if Embiid’s injury is serious.

2) One sportsbook posted an over/under of 83.5 for Astros hitters getting drilled by pitches this season; in their first five spring training games, seven Houston batters were plunked.

Take the over.

1) Mets have a minor league OF named David Thompson who wears #44; am wondering if #44 has anything to do with the great college basketball player David Thompson, who wore #44 when NC State won the college hoop national title in 1974.

Thompson wore #33 as a pro in the ABA/NBA for the Denver Nuggets.

**Udog** · 02-27-2020, 07:55 AM

NBA Betting Essentials, Odds and Angles for Thursday, Feb. 27
Tony Mejia

Top Game: Lakers (-4.5, 235.5) at Warriors, 10:35 p.m. ET, TNT
LeBron James played one of his best games since joining the Lakers on Tuesday night, helping survive their first encounter with Pelicans’ rookie Zion Williamson. His season-best 40 points helped send whatever messages he was trying to convey to a teenager he’d never met before and the team that could very well line up at Staples Center as his team’s first-round opponent.

The effort resulted in James choosing to take the night off here, citing a sore groin that can use a little rest before Friday’s test against the Grizzlies, the team they would currently open the playoffs against. It remains to be seen if he suits up to face injury-plagued Memphis, but he won’t play in San Francisco on Thursday as L.A. opens a three-game road trip that will end in New Orleans on Sunday.

The Lakers are looking to win a seventh straight game, which would match their third-longest winning streak of the season. L.A. has won nine and 10 in a row on separate occasions. It has won nine of its last 10 outright, covering the spread in seven of the wins. A victory over the Warriors would match Milwaukee for the NBA’s top road record at 24-5.

Forward Anthony Davis, who has been dealing with a calf bruise, hurt his elbow smacking the backboard in the second half against the Pelicans, is expected to play. He’s averaging 26.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and 2.6 blocks in February. Kyle Kuzma is likely to take James’ place in the starting lineup and newcomer Markieff Morris will probably get an extended look.

L.A. is 1-1 in games where James hasn’t suited up, losing to Denver at home on Dec. 22 and winning in Oklahoma City on Jan. 11.

Golden State has the NBA’s worst record (12-46), both overall and at home (7-22). The Warriors have dropped seven consecutive games and haven’t won since trading away D’Angelo Russell and acquiring former No. 1 overall pick Andrew Wiggins from Minnesota.

Wiggins debuted against the Lakers on Feb. 8 in a 125-120 loss at Chase Center, finishing with 24 points and five steals. He averaged 22.8 points over his first four games with Golden State but has averaged just 12 over his last two games, shooting 9-for-30 from the field. He’s been playing through a leg contusion.

Golden State will welcome Draymond Green back into the fold after he’s missed the last two games with a pelvic injury. Starting center Marquese Chriss returned from a calf injury that forced him to miss Sunday’s loss to New Orleans. He’s averaged 14.5 points and 6.8 boards since joining Steve Kerr’s starting lineup 12 games ago and led Golden State with 26 points and nine rebounds in the most recent loss to L.A., shooting 11-for-15. Green missed the game with lower back tightness.

Golden State is debating allowing Stephen Curry to debut on Sunday, so he may be in the mix when these teams play on April 9 but won’t play here. Ky Bowman, Damion Lee and rookie Jordan Poole will again see the majority of backcourt duty. Poole scored 19 points off the bench in the most recent loss.

Davis was absent for the 120-94 Lakers’ win at Staples when these teams met on Nov. 13, so JaVale McGee and Kuzma played large roles. The Warriors had won 10 of 11 encounters with L.A. from Nov. 2016 until this season and haven’t fallen in the season series between these teams since 2012-13. The ‘under’ has prevailed in four of Golden State’s last five contests.

Knicks at 76ers, 7:05 p.m. ET
Joel Embiid left Cleveland’s Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse with his left arm in a sling, declining to talk to the media after playing just 7:36 of a 108-94 upset loss to the Cavs. Philadelphia never led and its All-Star center banged his shoulder against fellow 7-footer, exited and returned with it wrapped. It’s safe to assume he won’t play against the Knicks, but it remains to be seen how long he’ll be sidelined.

All-Star point guard Ben Simmons is out at least two weeks with a nerve impingement in his lower back, so Philadelphia will have to rally behind Tobias Harris, Al Horford and Josh Richardson. Shake Milton joined the starting five in Simmons’ place and Glenn Robinson III is a likely candidate to replace Embiid with Horford shifting to center. This will be the first game the 76ers will play without either Simmons or Embiid since April 10 of last season when they rested starters to prepare for the playoffs.

The Sixers own the NBA’s top home record (27-2), winning 13 straight and last losing on Dec. 20. Visiting New York lost in Charlotte on Wednesday, failing to rally from a 15-point deficit despite closing strong. Julius Randle finished with 18 points and nine boards in just 25:14 while Mitchell Robinson added 12 points and 16 boards off the bench. Both should be more productive without Embiid to trifle with. The Knicks are 1-7 (2-5-1 ATS) on the second night of a back-to-back. Philadelphia is 7-2 (5-3-1) on the closing out a back-to-back. It has won the first three meetings against New York but have failed to cover in any of the victories. The ‘under’ is 2-1.

Kings at Thunder, 8:05 p.m. ET
Oklahoma City can equal its longest winning streak of the season by holding serve here and has caught the Jazz for second place in the Northwest Division, a half-game behind the Mavericks for the fifth-best record in the Western Conference. It’s looking increasingly likely that Thunder will reach the playoffs for the 10th time in 11 years.

Sacramento hasn’t qualified for the postseason since 2006, but a three-game win streak and Memphis’ recent woes have allowed it to claw within 3.5 games of the eighth and final spot. The Kings are 0-2 this season after winning three straight and are looking for their longest run of victories since October of 2018. De’Aaron Fox has played well at the point but is playing through groin and shoulder ailments. Harrison Barnes has led the team in scoring in three of the past five games. Forwards Marvin Bagley III and Richaun Holmes remain sidelined, so Nemanja Bjelica and Harry Giles III are playing big minutes in the post.

For the Thunder, center Steven Adams has averaged 15 points and 13 rebounds during their win streak, so his ability to stay out of foul trouble and control the paint should play a large role. Chris Paul is averaging 20.5 points and 7.5 assists over OKC’s last eight, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to do whatever is necessary to breed success. The Thunder and Kings split their two meetings in Sacramento, last playing on Jan. 29. Dennis Schroder scored 24 points off the bench in a 120-100 road win. This is the lone meeting between the teams in Oklahoma City. The ‘over’ has prevailed in five of the last seven games involving the Thunder and four of the last six featuring the Kings.

Trail Blazers at Pacers, 8:05 p.m. ET, TNT
Damian Lillard traveled with Portland as it opens a crucial three-game road trip that also features stops in Atlanta and Orlando, but he’s not expected to play here as he continues to deal with a groin injury. That’s a tough blow for a Blazers team running out of time to avoid being the season’s biggest disappointment. The Blazers have failed to cover a spread in five straight contests, dropping four outright. Portland is 0-4 on the road this month and are 10-20 on the highway this season, which is a key reason it remains 2.5 games behind the Grizzlies in the race for No. 8.

Indiana has won just three of its last 10 and is running sixth in the East, though Philadelphia’s injury concerns may afford it a window to move up. The Pacers have struggled working Victor Oladipo into the fold after his lengthy absence and have seen him miss the past few games due to a sore back. He’s questionable, which leaves Nate McMillan thin on the wing since Jeremy Lamb tore up his knee in a 46-point loss in Toronto on Sunday. The Pacers rebounded with a 119-80 rout of Charlotte on Tuesday and are looking for back-to-back wins for the first time since Jan. 24.

Indiana lost 139-129 in Portland when these teams met on Jan. 26, falling victim to a 50-point night from Damian Lillard. Lamb led Indy with 28 points. The Pacers have 10 of 11 contests against the Trail Blazers, including five straight. C.J. McCollum has averaged 32 points, 6.3 rebounds and 10.7 assists over the last three games in filling in for Lillard as the team’s primary catalyst. The ‘under’ has prevailed in Indiana’s last three games.

**Udog** · 02-27-2020, 08:00 AM

519NEW YORK -520 PHILADELPHIA
NEW YORK is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) in the current season.

521SACRAMENTO -522 OKLAHOMA CITY
SACRAMENTO is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders in the current season.

523PORTLAND -524 INDIANA
INDIANA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

525LA LAKERS -526 GOLDEN STATE
LA LAKERS are 2-16 ATS (-15.6 Units) in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, February 27

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NEW YORK (17 - 41) at PHILADELPHIA (36 - 23) - 2/27/2020, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 6-4 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 11-0 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SACRAMENTO (24 - 33) at OKLAHOMA CITY (36 - 22) - 2/27/2020, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 29-18 ATS (+9.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 7-3 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-5 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (26 - 33) at INDIANA (34 - 24) - 2/27/2020, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 23-34 ATS (-14.4 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
PORTLAND is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PORTLAND is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
INDIANA is 182-141 ATS (+26.9 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.
PORTLAND is 46-29 ATS (+14.1 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 5-0 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 5-0 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (44 - 12) at GOLDEN STATE (12 - 46) - 2/27/2020, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 70-89 ATS (-27.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 23-36 ATS (-16.6 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 57-77 ATS (-27.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 26-39 ATS (-16.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 25-41 ATS (-20.1 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 6-4 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 7-3 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 02-27-2020, 10:14 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, February 27

New York @ Philadelphia

Game 519-520
February 27, 2020 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New York
108.534
Philadelphia
117.270
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 9
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 7
212 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-7); Over

Portland @ Indiana

Game 523-524
February 27, 2020 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
114.945
Indiana
118.209
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 3 1/2
214
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
by 9 1/2
218 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(+9 1/2); Under

Sacramento @ Oklahoma City

Game 521-522
February 27, 2020 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Sacramento
117.370
Oklahoma City
125.846
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 8 1/2
228
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 7
222 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(-7); Over

LA Lakers @ Golden State

Game 525-526
February 27, 2020 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
120.275
Golden State
112.003
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 8
221
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 10 1/2
222 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(+10 1/2); Under

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Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/27

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/27

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