Announcement

**Udog** · 01-18-2020, 07:38 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

NBA teams that sold the most team merchandise last year:

6) Golden State

5) Milwaukee

4) Toronto

3) Philadelphia

2) Boston

1) Lakers

**********

Armadillo: Saturday's Den: Doing some studying for the NCAA tournament……

Did some research today, which means:
a) It was really cold out.
b) There weren’t any good movies on TV.

I looked at the 40 teams who made the Elite 8 over the last five years, trying to find any common threads to teams who got to a regional final.

I’ll pull this list out the day after the brackets come out and see if we can identify a team or two that could surprise and make the Final Four. Here is what I found:

13) 2017 South Carolina is one of the weirdest Final Four teams ever; they started season 8-0, but went 12-6 in the SEC, lost their first SEC tourney game. On Selection Sunday, Gamecocks had lost six of their last nine games, but they got a 7-seed, so they were comfortably in the field of 68, but no one was picking them to advance very far.

Carolina’s eFG% was #304, which is bad (there are 353 teams); their experience was #233, but they played great defense (#15 eFG%) and were #5 in forcing turnovers.

It is South Carolina’s only NCAA appearance since 2004, and they made the Final Four.

12) Over the last five years, 16 of 40 teams (40%) who made the Elite 8 won their conference tournament; 8 of the 40 teams (20%) lost their first conference tourney game.

11) 32 of the 40 teams (80%) were in the KenPom top 20 on Selection Sunday; last year, all eight of the Elite Eight were in the top 15.

10) Strong defense is important; 24 of 40 teams (60%) were in top 50 in top 50 of eFG% rankings (FG% where a 3-pointer counts as 1.5 hoops).

9) Forcing turnovers? Not as important. Only 8 of 40 Elite 8 teams (20%) were teams that ranked in top 50 in forcing turnovers. Teams that do well in that category are generally bully teams who beat up on stiffs, but in March, there aren’t too many stiffs still playing.

8) Three of last four years, a team that went 9-9 in conference play but made the Elite 8:
— 2016 Syracuse, a 10-seed
— 2017 Xavier, an 11-seed
— 2018 Florida State, a 9-seed

7) Getting easy baskets is important; 22 of 40 Elite 8 teams (55%) ranked in top 50 in eFG% on offense; 53 of 60 teams (88.3%) were in the top 100.

6) How important is experience? Not so much. Talent means more.

Only 6 of 40 Elite 8 teams (15%) were in the top 100 in experience; the most talented teams have kids who bolt school early.

5) You can make the case that continuity is more important than actual experience; maybe a team has a nucleus of sophomores who played together for two years.

12 of 40 Elite 8 teams (30%) were in top 100 in minutes continuity.

4) Does playing a hard non-conference schedule help you in March, Unless your name is Mark Few, not really.

Only 5 of 40 Elite 8 teams (12.5%) had a non-conference schedule that ranked in the top 50 nationally. Teams from the bigger leagues pad their power ratings with conference games; they pad their W-L record with pre-conference wins.

8 of 40 Elite 8 teams (20%) had a non-conference schedule outside the top 200.

3) As for overall strength of schedule, 33 of 40 teams (82.5%) ranked in the top 40- teams like 2019 Auburn, 2018 Kansas State, 2017 Oklahoma made the Elite 8 from Power 5 leagues, with Big East being the 6th Power 5 league.

2017 Xavier had a 5-game losing skid in February; 2018 Texas Tech had a 4-game skid.

2) How about teams who get a lot of their points outside the arc?

Only 10 of 60 Elite 8 teams (16.7%) ranked in the top 100, as far as getting their points on 3-point shots. 21 of 40 teams (52.5%) ranked outside the top 200 in that category.

1) Depth seems to be incredibly overrated; TV timeouts are longer in March and while I can’t prove it, I’m pretty sure refs call fewer fouls in March.

Only 6 of 40 Elite 8 teams ranked in the top 100 in bench minutes; 10 of 60 teams (16.7%) ranked outside the top 200.

Like I said, we’ll put this article out on March 16 as we examine the brackets.

**Udog** · 01-18-2020, 07:40 AM

545LA CLIPPERS -546 NEW ORLEANS
LA CLIPPERS are 27-13 ATS (12.7 Units) in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts in the last 3 seasons.

547MILWAUKEE -548 BROOKLYN
MILWAUKEE is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half in the current season.

549PHOENIX -550 BOSTON
BOSTON is 66-46 ATS (15.4 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots in the last 3 seasons.

551DETROIT -552 ATLANTA
DETROIT is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread in the last 3 seasons.

553PHILADELPHIA -554 NEW YORK
NEW YORK is 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) in home games after having lost 4 of their last 5 games in the last 3 seasons.

555TORONTO -556 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 112-165 ATS (-69.5 Units) in home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread since 1996.

557CLEVELAND -558 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 4-20 ATS (-18 Units) in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.

561ORLANDO -562 GOLDEN STATE
ORLANDO is 14-3 ATS (10.7 Units) in road games after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

565SACRAMENTO -566 UTAH
UTAH is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons.

**Udog** · 01-18-2020, 07:48 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, January 18

Clippers-Pelicans
Clippers won four of their last five games; they’re 5-3 ATS in last eight road games. Over is 8-4-1 in their last 13 games. New Orleans won nine of last 12 games, winning last two in OT; they’re 5-0 ATS in last five home games. Pelicans’ last 10 games all went over.

Clippers lost five of last seven games with New Orleans; they’re 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Bourbon Street. Three of last four series games went over.

Bucks-Nets
Milwaukee won five in row, 31 of last 34 games; they’re 7-3 ATS in last ten road games. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Brooklyn lost nine of last 11 games; they’re 6-2 ATS as a home underdog. Three of their last four games went over.

Bucks won eight of last ten games with the Nets; they’re 4-1 ATS in last five trips to Brooklyn. Four of last five series games went over.

Suns-Celtics
Phoenix won three of its last four games; they covered four of last five road games. Four of their last five games went under. Celtics lost five of their last seven games, are 2-5 ATS in last seven home games. Over is 5-3 in their last eight home games.

Suns lost five of last six games with the Celtics; they’re 3-1 ATS in last four visits to Boston. Three of last four series games went under.

Pistons-Hawks
Detroit lost three of last four games overall, but covered three of last four on road; over is 10-3 in their last 13 games. Hawks won by a point in San Antonio Friday; they won last two games, are 5-2 ATS in last seven home games. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.

Pistons won seven of last ten games with the Hawks; they’re 2-2 ATS in last four visits to Atlanta. Over is 6-4 in last ten series games.

76ers-Knicks
Home side won/covered Philly’s last eight games; 76ers are 0-5-1 ATS in last six road games. Four of their last five games stayed under. New York lost seven of its last eight games; they’re 2-4 ATS in last six home games. Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.

76ers won their last ten games with the Knicks; they’re 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Manhattan. Under is 6-4 in last ten series games.

Raptors-Timberwolves
Toronto won three of its last four games; they’re 4-2-1 ATS in last seven road games. Three of their last four games went over. Minnesota lost its last four games; they’re 3-11 ATS in last 14 home games. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.

Raptors won their last three games with the Wolves; they’re 2-3 ATS in last five visits to the Twin Cities. Last three series games stayed under.

Cavaliers-Bulls
Cleveland lost its last three games; they’re 5-3 ATS in last eight road games. Over is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Chicago lost eight of its last ten games; they’re 7-5 ATS as a home favorite. Bulls’ last four games stayed under the total.

Cavaliers lost four of last five games with Chicago; they’re 3-2 ATS in last five trips to the Windy City (under 4-1).

Lakers-Rockets
Lakers won nine of last ten games, are 5-1 ATS aa road underdogs. LA’s last four games went over the total. Houston lost three of its last four games; they covered four of last five home games. Five of their last six games stayed under.

Lakers lost five of last six games with the Rockets; they’re 3-1 ATS in last four trips to Houston. Over is 7-3 in last ten series games.

Magic-Warriors
Orlando won six of its last nine games; they’re 9-5 ATS in last 14 road games. Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games. Golden State lost its last ten games; they’re 6-3 ATS in last nine home tilts. Five of their last six games went under.

Magic won last two games with Golden State, after losing previous eight meetings; they covered four of last five visits to Oakland. Under is 5-2 in last seven series games.

Trailblazers-Thunder
Portland lost nine of its last 13 games; they’re 3-78ATS in last 11 road games. Under is 10-3 in their last 13 road games. Oklahoma City lost three of its last four games; they’re 5-7 ATS in last dozen home games. Thunder’s last four games went over.

Trailblazers won four of last five games with the Thunder; they’re 2-3 ATS in last five visits to OKC. Under is 5-3 in last eight series games.

Kings-Jazz
Sacramento lost 12 of its last 15 games; they’re 1-3-1 ATS in last five road games. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games. Utah won 10 of its last 11 games; they covered their last five home games. Five of their last six games went over.

Kings lost eight of last ten games with the Kings; they’re 2-2 ATS in last four visits to Utah. Last three series games went under.

**Udog** · 01-18-2020, 07:53 AM

NBA

Saturday, January 18

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA Clippers @ New Orleans
LA Clippers
LA Clippers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
LA Clippers is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Milwaukee @ Brooklyn
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Brooklyn's last 11 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

Phoenix @ Boston
Phoenix
Phoenix is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Boston
Phoenix is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix

Philadelphia @ New York
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing New York
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New York
New York
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of New York's last 22 games at home
New York is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Detroit @ Atlanta
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing at home against Detroit
Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home

Toronto @ Minnesota
Toronto
Toronto is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto

Cleveland @ Chicago
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cleveland's last 9 games
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland

LA Lakers @ Houston
LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
LA Lakers is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against LA Lakers

Orlando @ Golden State
Orlando
Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Orlando
Golden State is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing Orlando

Sacramento @ Utah
Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games on the road
Sacramento is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
Utah
Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Portland @ Oklahoma City
Portland
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Portland's last 13 games on the road
Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games
Oklahoma City is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-18-2020, 08:17 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, January 18

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LA CLIPPERS (29 - 13) at NEW ORLEANS (16 - 26) - 1/18/2020, 3:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 6-3 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 6-3 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MILWAUKEE (37 - 6) at BROOKLYN (18 - 22) - 1/18/2020, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 80-127 ATS (-59.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996.
BROOKLYN is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 81-56 ATS (+19.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 65-46 ATS (+14.4 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 71-51 ATS (+14.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 40-27 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 145-109 ATS (+25.1 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 70-46 ATS (+19.4 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 43-27 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 63-43 ATS (+15.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 61-44 ATS (+12.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in home games against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 5-2 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 5-2 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHOENIX (17 - 24) at BOSTON (27 - 13) - 1/18/2020, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 41-54 ATS (-18.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 126-99 ATS (+17.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 140-182 ATS (-60.2 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.
BOSTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 4-1 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 4-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (15 - 27) at ATLANTA (10 - 32) - 1/18/2020, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 15-25 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all games this season.
DETROIT is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
DETROIT is 36-53 ATS (-22.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 6-3 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 6-3 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (27 - 16) at NEW YORK (11 - 31) - 1/18/2020, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 250-200 ATS (+30.0 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1996.
NEW YORK is 52-69 ATS (-23.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 45-60 ATS (-21.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 22-36 ATS (-17.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 21-33 ATS (-15.3 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 38-55 ATS (-22.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 6-3 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 10-0 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (27 - 14) at MINNESOTA (15 - 26) - 1/18/2020, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (12 - 30) at CHICAGO (15 - 28) - 1/18/2020, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 5-4 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 6-3 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA LAKERS (33 - 8) at HOUSTON (26 - 14) - 1/18/2020, 8:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 5-3 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 6-2 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ORLANDO (20 - 22) at GOLDEN STATE (9 - 34) - 1/18/2020, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 79-108 ATS (-39.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in home games after allowing 130 points or more since 1996.
ORLANDO is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 63-81 ATS (-26.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 28-43 ATS (-19.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 3-2 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 3-2 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PORTLAND (18 - 25) at OKLAHOMA CITY (23 - 19) - 1/18/2020, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 16-25 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PORTLAND is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 9-7 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 10-6 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
10 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SACRAMENTO (15 - 26) at UTAH (28 - 13) - 1/18/2020, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 38-24 ATS (+11.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 60-43 ATS (+12.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 5-4 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 7-2 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-18-2020, 11:45 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, January 18

LA Clippers @ New Orleans

Game 545-546
January 18, 2020 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Clippers
117.608
New Orleans
119.161
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 1 1/2
240
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 5 1/2
233 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+5 1/2); Over

Milwaukee @ Brooklyn

Game 547-548
January 18, 2020 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
122.389
Brooklyn
118.499
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 4
241
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 9 1/2
234
Dunkel Pick:
Brooklyn
(+9 1/2); Over

Phoenix @ Boston

Game 549-550
January 18, 2020 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
112.440
Boston
123.497
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 11
226
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 7
224
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-7); Over

Detroit @ Atlanta

Game 551-552
January 18, 2020 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
116.367
Atlanta
111.209
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 5
221
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 1 1/2
228 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-1 1/2); Under

Philadelphia @ New York

Game 553-554
January 18, 2020 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
118.908
New York
108.975
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 10
208
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 4
217 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-4); Under

Cleveland @ Chicago

Game 557-558
January 18, 2020 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
110.056
Chicago
114.373
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 4 1/2
211
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 6 1/2
214 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+6 1/2); Under

Toronto @ Minnesota

Game 555-556
January 18, 2020 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
124.308
Minnesota
113.896
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 10 1/2
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 5
223 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-5); Over

LA Lakers @ Houston

Game 559-560
January 18, 2020 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
123.173
Houston
117.790
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 5 1/2
228
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 2
232
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(+2); Under

Orlando @ Golden State

Game 561-562
January 18, 2020 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Orlando
116.803
Golden State
108.143
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Orlando
by 8 1/2
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Orlando
by 5 1/2
213
Dunkel Pick:
Orlando
(-5 1/2); Under

Portland @ Oklahoma City

Game 563-564
January 18, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
112.792
Oklahoma City
122.292
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 9 1/2
225
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 6
221
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(-6); Over

Sacramento @ Utah

Game 565-566
January 18, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Sacramento
116.418
Utah
122.240
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 6
217
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 9
221 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Sacramento
(+9); Under

**Udog** · 01-18-2020, 11:52 AM

Hoop Trends - Saturday
Vince Akins

PLAY-ON TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Suns are 12-0 ATS (8.62 ppg) with rest off a road win in which their assists increased by at least 10 from the game before.

PLAY-AGAINST TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Hawks are 0-11 ATS (-11.77 ppg) with no rest when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road.

TOTAL TREND OF THE DAY - OVER:

-- The Jazz are 15-0 OU (17.53 ppg) after a game as a road favorite in which they scored 15+ points more than Vegas projected.

TOTAL TREND OF THE DAY - UNDER:

-- The Celtics are 0-12-2 OU (-12.89 ppg) after they had at least 10 more three point attempts than their season-to-date average.

PLAYER-BASED TRENDS:

-- The Suns are 7-0 ATS (7.50 ppg) off a road game in which Devin Booker was their high scorer.

-- The Jazz are 0-9 OU (-11.94 ppg) at home when Donovan Mitchell scored at least 15 more in their last game then he did 2 games ago.

**Udog** · 01-18-2020, 11:56 AM

Lakers at Rockets Preview
Tony Mejia

Lakers at Rockets - 8:35 PM EST, ABC

Betting Odds: Houston -2, 232

The Lakers (33-8 SU, 22-18-1) look to build on the Western Conference’s top record as they open a challenging five-game road trip that continues in Boston on Sunday and features games against the Knicks, Nets and 76ers next week. Their visit to Houston coincides with the beginning of ABC’s Saturday night NBA schedule and will feature the home team looking to avoid what would be just their second three-game losing streak of the season.

The Rockets (26-14 SU, 19-21 ATS) open the day percentage points ahead of streaking Dallas for the Southwest Division lead but would be just the No. 5 seed, which is not at all where they envisioned being at the season’s halfway point considering they remain the No. 3 choice to win the Western Conference (6/1) in odds put out by the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. The Lakers have been co-favorites with the Clippers all season to win both the West (8/5) and NBA title (5/2).

Portland came into Houston and pulled off a 117-107 upset on Wednesday, holding James Harden to 13 points, his lowest-scoring output of the season. Afterward, Rockets head coach Mike D’Antoni attempted to downplay any turbulence but then changed course, stating that some guys on the team need to get over themselves and worry about the name on the front of the jersey instead of the back. A victory over the Lakers could certainly serve as a cure-all, but with Oklahoma City arriving on Sunday and Denver visiting to close out the Rockets’ homestand on Tuesday, there’s potential for a freefall too. Houston is 14-5 at the Toyota Center and had won five straight (4-1 ATS) there prior to the hiccup against the Blazers, so it’s understandable that it has been placed in a favorite’s role for this matchup.

Harden leads the NBA with a 37.2 scoring average but finished just 3-for-12, taking his second-fewest number of shots this season while also wrestling with foul trouble. Russell Westbrook helped pick up the slack with another triple-double, but the Rockets need Harden to reassert his dominance. He’s topped the 40-point mark three times this month and has scored at least 40 16 times this season.

This will be the first time these teams are meeting since last February, when LeBron James and Brandon Ingram combined for 56 points and 25 rebounds in a 111-106 victory at Staples Center. Harden scored 30, but the dynamic has obviously changed with Russell Westbrook replacing Chris Paul as Harden’s chief running mate and Anthony Davis joining the party. It remains to be seen if he’s going to come back for this Saturday night showcase considering he’s sat out the past four games with a glute injury after suffering a hard fall against the Knicks on Jan. 7. ESPN is reporting that he’ll be a game-time decision after warming up and seeing how he feels. Kyle Kuzma has been starting in his place, helping L.A. to a 3-1 record.

Los Angeles lost to the Magic on Wednesday, snapping its nine-game winning streak in a 119-118 loss against a shorthanded team led by 2017 No. 1 overall pick Markelle Fultz. L.A. had been 6-2-1 against the number prior to the surprising setback. The Lakers suffered through a four-game losing streak from Dec. 17-25 but otherwise haven’t dropped consecutive contests. They may not close as an underdog, particularly if the betting public suspects Davis will play, but they opened in that role for just the sixth time all season and come in 5-1 SU/ATS in games where they’re either a pick’em or catching points. The setback came at Milwaukee on Dec. 19. Houston has yet to be a home underdog in 2019-20.

The Rockets have owned the Lakers of late, winning five of six, which includes a pair of overtime victories. In all, L.A. has only beaten Harden-led Houston five times in 22 games since the beginning of the 2013 season. L.A. will look to reverse that history and should have Alex Caruso (face/concussion scare) and Rajon Rondo (finger) in the mix after some concern that they would have to sit out. It remains to be seen what happens with Davis. Kuzma and Dwight Howard, who famously flamed out alongside Harden with the Rockets, would get increased time on the court if Davis can’t play. The ‘over’ has prevailed in four straight games involving the Lakers, but the ‘under’ is on a 7-3-1 run in Houston’s games. The opening total (232) is the highest seen in a game involving L.A. since a Nov. 29 win over Washington. The ‘under’ is 2-0 when the number closes over 230 in Lakers’ games.

Best of the Rest

Suns at Celtics (-7/224.5), 7:05 p.m. ET: Boston didn’t lose three straight in the season’s first few months but is in danger of having that happen for the second time in 2020 if it can’t avoid an upset here. Phoenix forward Kelly Oubre, Jr. remains out due to a concussion, while rookie backup Cam Johnson is listed as questionable. The Celtics have dealt with injuries for the past few weeks but got Jayson Tatum back from a bout with knee soreness and list guard Marcus Smart (ankle) and center Daniel Theis (knee) as probable. Wing Jaylen Brown sat out Thursday’s 128-123 loss at Milwaukee with a thumb injury. Boston has beaten the Suns in eight of the last 10.

Trail Blazers at Thunder (-6/221), 9:05 p.m. ET: Oklahoma City welcomes old friend Damian Lillard back into town for the final time this season after losing 102-99 when the teams played back on Oct. 30. They’ve split a pair of games at Portland’s Moda Center since then, but Lillard loves playing at Chesapeake Energy Arena, where he had 23 points and 13 assists in the first meeting to build on ending the Westbrook era in OKC with his playoff heroics last April. The Thunder snapped four-game losing streak in the series with a 108-96 road win on Dec. 8 due to Carmelo Anthony shooting an abysmal 4-for-18. He’s been playing much better of late and is undoubtedly looking forward to some redemption. The ‘over’ is on a 4-0 run in Thunder games.

Kings at Jazz (-9/222), 9:05 p.m. ET: Utah looks to bounce back after seeing its 10-game win streak come to an end in New Orleans in an OT loss on Thursday. The Jazz have still won 15 of 17 (12-4-1 ATS) and haven’t lost in Salt Lake City since Dec. 9, a span of six games. The Kings lost 113-81 the first time they came through town (Oct. 26) but picked up a 102-101 win for a little revenge on Nov. 1. Mike Conley will make his return from a hamstring injury for Utah, so rotations will certainly be different. Sacramento lists guard Bogdan Bogdanovic as questionable but the expectation is that he’ll play. Forward Nemanja Bjelica has had a great week and will also suit up. Center Richaun Holmes won’t. The ‘over’ has prevailed in the last three games involving Sacramento.

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Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/18

Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/18

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