Announcement

**Udog** · 12-12-2019, 07:34 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Too-early 2020 baseball over/under in totals:

— Astros 99.5

— Dodgers 98.5

— Twins 90.5

— Padres 84.5

— Giants 68.5

— Mariners/Royals 66.5

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) Los Angeles Angels signed 3B Anthony Rendon to a 7-year, $245M contact Wednesday night; Angels have a potent lineup, but they still lack pitching.

12) Want to know why fantasy baseball is increasingly popular? I’ll repeat something that I posted yesterday; it tells a story of why it is difficult to be a fan of a small market team:

2020 Bronx Bombers:
— Gerrit Cole, $36M
— Giancarlo Stanton, $26M
— Masahiro Tanaka, $23M
— Aroldis Chapman $17.2M

That adds up to $101.5M…….for four guys.

Oakland A’s made the playoffs the last two years; their ENTIRE payroll last year?

$92,178,333

11) If you and I play checkers, and you start wth 12 checkers but I start with 24, then I’m going to win most of the time, even if you’re smarter than me.

Gerrit Cole is going to make $1,090,909 per start next year; Oakland’s five starting pitchers LY made a total of roughly $12,500,000 for the whole season.

10) So having your own fantasy team where there are no salaries and you compete against people you know eliminates a lot of that BS and makes the summer more fun. At least if you have a cruddy season, you can blame yourself, instead of a ridiculous system that rewards the teams with the most money to spend.

9) 84 basketball players left college early LY and declared for the NBA Draft; only 44 of them were taken in the draft.

8) College football stuff:
— Colorado State hired former BC coach Steve Addazio as its new football coach.
— UNLV hired Oregon OC Marcus Arroyo as its new football coach.
— Florida Atlantic hired former Florida State coach Willie Taggart.

7) Baseball stuff:
— Mets signed P Michael Wacha to a 1-year deal, $3M deal (with incentives).
— Dodgers signed P Blake Treinen for one year, $10M.
— Blue Jays gave P Tanner Roark $24M for two years.

6) Adam Jones signed an $8M deal to play baseball for the Orix Buffaloes in Japan; Jones has played 14 years in the majors, mostly with the Orioles.

5) I’d track the movement of college football coaches on here, but those guys are nomadic- they constantly change jobs, especially assistants. Coaches’ wives must be experts at packing.

4) There have been 12 NBA games this season where a player had 20+ points and 20+ rebounds; Detroit’s Andre Drummond has five of those 12 games.

3) Diamondbacks/Padres will play two regular season games in Mexico City April 18-19; the first regular season MLB games in Mexico City. Games had previously been played in Monterrey.

2) Bad beat of the week: NBA’s Atlanta Hawks (+8.5) led Miami by 6 points with 0:59 left in regulation Tuesday night, but they didn’t cover. Seriously.

Miami scored the next 22 points and won by 14 in OT. It was the NBA’s widest margin of victory in an OT game since October 31, 2009, when Philadelphia beat the Knicks, 141-127.

1) Good trivia; Denver rookie QB Drew Lock plays against the Chiefs this week; Lock’s dad Andy was the starting right guard for the Missouri Tigers in 1989, when KC coach Andy Reid was his offensive line coach. 30 years later, they cross paths again.

**Udog** · 12-12-2019, 07:40 AM

523PHILADELPHIA -524 BOSTON
BOSTON is 11-0 ATS (11 Units) vs. winning teams in the current season.

525CLEVELAND -526 SAN ANTONIO
CLEVELAND is 23-42 ATS (-23.2 Units) in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, December 12

76ers–Celtics
Philly won seven of its last eight games; they’re 2-1-1 ATS as a road underdog. 76ers’ last four road games went under. Boston won/covered four of its last five games; they’re 6-3 ATS as a home favorite. Under is 8-4-1 in their last 13 games.

Home side won six of last seven 76er-Celtic games; Philly is 0-5 ATS in last five trips to Beantown. Under is 5-3 in last eight series games.

Cavaliers-Spurs
Cleveland lost its last eight games; they’re 0-5 ATS in last five road games. Four of their last five road games went over. San Antonio hasn’t played since Friday; they won last two games, both in OT. Spurs are 1-8 ATS as a home favorite. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Cavaliers lost their last six games with the Spurs (1-5 ATS); they’re 3-2 ATS in last five visits to the Alamo. Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.

Mavericks-Pistons (@ Mexico City)
Dallas won five of its last six games; they’re 8-2 SU one road, 2-1 ATS as a road favorite. Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Detroit won four of its last five games; they’re 2-5-1 ATS in last eight games as an underdog. Over is 4-2 in their last six games.

Pistons won four of last six games with Dallas; favorites are 4-1 ATS in last five series games. Under is 7-2 in last nine series games.

Trailblazers-Nuggets
Portland lost five of its last six road games; they’re 2-5 ATS in last seven games as a road underdog. Four of their last five road games went under. Denver lost five of its last five games; they’re 4-7 ATS as a home favorite. Under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.

Denver-Portland split their last ten meetings; Trailblazers are 2-3 ATS in last five trips to Denver. Over is 7-3 in last ten series games.

NBA

Thursday, December 12

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Trend Report
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Boston Celtics
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Boston's last 13 games
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games at home
Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Boston is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing Philadelphia
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 11 games
Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Boston
Philadelphia is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games when playing Boston
Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston

San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games
San Antonio is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 8 games
San Antonio is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games at home
San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 13 of San Antonio's last 19 games when playing Cleveland
San Antonio is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Antonio's last 11 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Cleveland's last 19 games when playing San Antonio
Cleveland is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Cleveland's last 11 games when playing on the road against San Antonio

Detroit Pistons
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games
Detroit is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Detroit is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games at home
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Detroit is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing Dallas
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 11 games when playing at home against Dallas
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
Dallas is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games on the road
Dallas is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Dallas is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing Detroit
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 9 games when playing Detroit
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas's last 11 games when playing on the road against Detroit

Denver Nuggets
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games at home
Denver is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Portland
Denver is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Denver's last 12 games when playing Portland
Denver is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against Portland
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games
Portland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Portland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games on the road
Portland is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Denver
Portland is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Portland's last 12 games when playing Denver
Portland is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Denver
Portland is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver

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**Udog** · 12-12-2019, 08:20 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, December 12

Philadelphia @ Boston

Game 523-524
December 12, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
125.470
Boston
122.924
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 2 1/2
214
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 1 1/2
210
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+1 1/2); Over

Cleveland @ San Antonio

Game 525-526
December 12, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
105.263
San Antonio
112.393
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 7
227
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 10 1/2
218 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+10 1/2); Over

Dallas @ Detroit

Game 527-528
December 12, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
127.035
Detroit
119.341
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 7 1/2
214
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 5 1/2
220 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-5 1/2); Under

Portland @ Denver

Game 529-530
December 12, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
113.971
Denver
124.070
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 10
204
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 6
213 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-6); Under

**Udog** · 12-12-2019, 08:37 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, December 12

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PHILADELPHIA (18 - 7) at BOSTON (17 - 6) - 12/12/2019, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 117-91 ATS (+16.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 47-30 ATS (+14.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 83-62 ATS (+14.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 42-26 ATS (+13.4 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 11-3 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 10-4 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (5 - 19) at SAN ANTONIO (9 - 14) - 12/12/2019, 8:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 3-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (16 - 7) at DETROIT (10 - 14) - 12/12/2019, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 60-43 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 533-444 ATS (+44.6 Units) in road games since 1996.
DALLAS is 88-57 ATS (+25.3 Units) in road games in December games since 1996.
DALLAS is 36-23 ATS (+10.7 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 50-29 ATS (+18.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 2-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (10 - 15) at DENVER (14 - 8) - 12/12/2019, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 10-5 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 10-6 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 12-12-2019, 10:54 AM

Thursday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Top Game - Blazers at Nuggets (-6/213), 10:40 p.m.

On Tuesday night, all was right with the Trail Blazers again.

Damian Lillard hit eight 3-pointers, Hassan Whiteside broke off a double-double with five blocks and Portland was so impressive that extended garbage time ensued in a 115-87 rout. Unfortunately, the Knicks can only come through town once and they still woke up this morning as both a last-place team and the NBA’s biggest disappointment.

Portland (10-15 SU, 11-14 ATS) still has time on its side, but must start getting its act together in piling up wins to avoid missing the playoffs for the first time since 2013, head coach Terry Stotts’ inaugural season at the helm. The Blazers have incredibly put together winning streaks only twice this season and have dropped eight of their last 10 road games. They’ve only defeated a single team with a winning record outside of Portland and are down three pieces who would ordinarily be in the rotation. Center Jusuf Nurkic is still a few months from returning from compound fractures of both his fibula and tibia in his left leg, forward Zack Collins is out until March after suffering a torn labrum and wing Rodney Hood ruptured his Achilles last Friday, adding to the doomed feeling around the group.

Talk of finding a way to add Portland native Kevin Love has begun making the rounds as a franchise that entered the season with aspirations of taking advantage of Golden State’s demise looks to reverse course from the sea of nowhere if appears headed towards. Carmelo Anthony has already had his contract guaranteed after providing a boost, so the Blazers have already proven willing to do just about anything to get on track.

They don’t play again until visiting Phoenix on Monday and then return home to start a four-game homestand played exclusively against teams with losing records, so this is the beginning of a crucial stretch as they attempt climb back towards .500. As things stand entering Thursday’s action, they’re just one game behind the playoff pace behind a pack featuring the Jazz, Thunder and Kings.

Less than five full games separate the entire Northwest Division, which continues to be led by the Nuggets in spite of their season-worst three-game losing streak. Denver (14-8, 10-11-1) has actually dropped five of six, beating only the Knicks on an East coast trip they returned from following a disappointing 97-92 Tuesday night loss in Philadelphia. Despite a strong start, losing Jamal Murray to a trunk contusion after colliding with fellow point guard Ben Simmons in the opening quarter. X-rays came back as hoped for, but it remains to be seen whether he plays here.

Paul Millsap is also questionable with a foot issue, which could lead to more minutes for rookie forward Michael Porter, Jr., who got early time against the 76ers as Michael Malone seeks to spark a slumping offense. Jokic is averaging 16 points and 10 rebounds, numbers more on par with what he did in his second season than what we’ve grown accustomed to seeing over the previous two as he’s grown into an MVP candidate. Jokic has averaged 15.6 points while shooting 46.6 percent over the last 10 games and is in a 4-for-26 slump from 3-point range (15.3 percent). Getting him going is crucial if the Nuggets are to live up to preseason expectations. They lead the league in fewest points allowed per game this season but have only topped 102 points themselves once in their last six games. Not surprisingly, the ‘under’ is 5-1 over that stretch.

The Nuggets are perfect against Northwest Division opposition, while Portland is 2-2 in such games. Rebounding is likely to play a major role since Denver is 8-2 when winning the glass and the Blazers are 4-13 when outrebounded, so it’s crucial that Whiteside stay out of foul trouble against All-Star Nikola Jokic for the Blazers to hang around and pull off an upset. Skal Labissiere, who has been getting the bulk of the minutes as the primary reserve center, is banged up and would require Stotts to go small with Mario Hezonja and rookie Nassir Little among his limited frontcourt options.

Denver won at Portland 108-100 in the season opener on Oct. 23, capitalizing on knocking down 18 3-pointers, the most in series history. It gave the Nuggets a small measure of revenge after losing last May’s Western Conference semifinal series upon fumbling Games 6 and 7. Jokic scored 16 points in the fourth quarter. He hasn’t scored 16 points in a whole game in seven of the last 11, though he’s starting to show signs of coming out of his slump and did deliver 11 assists against Philly, his second-largest total of the season.

This will be Anthony’s first trip in to Denver with the Blazers and will mark only the third time he faces the team that drafted him while suited up for a conference rival. Anthony was 0-2 at Pepsi Center with OKC in ’17-’18. After a hot start, Anthony is shooting just 33 percent in December, averaging 13.8 points. Including the postseason, the Blazers have won just two of their last nine in Denver, which includes an 0-7 regular-season run. The Blazers' last win in the Mile High city outside of their most recent playoff series came in OT back in the '16-'17 season opener.

Best of the Rest

76ers (-1/210) at Celtics, 8:10 p.m. ET: Boston lost a rollercoaster ride of a game in Indiana on Wednesday, falling victim to the absence of Marcus Smart (eye infection) in addition to Gordon Hayward exiting early after being struck in the face. The Celtics hope both can return and help the team improve to 11-0 at TD Garden, but Hayward reported feeling dizzy after being struck on the nose by Doug McDermott, so he'll have to pass concussion protocol. The 76ers won the season opener 107-93 by holding Kemba Walker to 4-for-18 shooting but he comes off a 44-point outburst in Indy and is looking increasingly comfortable with his role in Boston. Philadelphia is just 5-7 SU on the road and 2-5 ATS in a favorite's role away from home, which is what it would currently close as unless late money comes in on the Celtics, which is possible if the injury situation improves in their favor.

Cavs at Spurs (-11.5/219.5), 8:40 p.m. ET: Cleveland stunningly had the Rockets on the ropes in the fourth quarter of a 116-110 Wednesday night loss and fumbled away the game down the stretch, so an unhappy young team will take the floor at AT&T Center for the second of a back-to-back. The Cavs are 1-2 when playing on the second night in succession, absorbing blowout losses vs. the Knicks (123-105) and 76ers (141-94) on the road while beating the Blazers at home. Cleveland has dropped eight straight and 14 of 15. San Antonio is looking to match its season-long by winning a third straight game and will be playing for just the third time since Dec. 1 allowing them to get healthy and put in some much-needed practice work. The Spurs have won six straight in the series but are just 1-1 SU as a double-digit favorite this season, failing to cover either time.

Mavs (-5.5/220.5) vs. Pistons, 9:10 p.m. ET: This matchup is being played inside Mexico City Arena, which opened in 2012 and has hosted a number of games, most recently last December 13 in a 97-91 Orlando win over the Bulls. Altitude is a varaible, but both teams have had a number of days off entering this one. The Mavs come in off their first loss since Nov. 26, falling late against Sacramento in a home upset. Detroit has won four of five and is looking for its first three-game winning streak of the season after Derrick Rose's heroics helped win in New Orleans on Monday night. The Spurs and Suns will come into town and play on Saturday.

**Udog** · 12-12-2019, 10:55 AM

Hoop Trends - Thursday
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day:

-- The Mavericks are 10-0 ATS (8.40 ppg) after they scored fewer than 10 fast break points last game.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

-- The Spurs are 0-12 ATS (-11.29 ppg) at home when they won 2 straight vs current opponent.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day:

-- The Pistons are 10-0 OU (11.30 ppg) as a home dog with rest coming off a road game.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day:

-- The Nuggets are 0-10 OU (-12.15 ppg) as a favorite with rest off a loss as a road dog in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers.

Announcement

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 12/12

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 12/12

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