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**Udog** · 09-29-2019, 08:43 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Top six picks for Week 4 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Texans -4.5 (752)

5) Saints +2.5 (812)

4) Cowboys -2.5 (845)

3) Vikings +1.5 (861)

2) Patriots -7 (930)

1) Chiefs -6.5 (1,463)

2019 record: 12-6

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Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a college football Saturday

13) Clemson 21, North Carolina 20— Tar Heels scored a TD with 1:17 left, then went for 2 points and the lead- they didn’t get it. Here is why I think that was a terrible idea:

— Recruiting is the lifeblood of all college football programs; for an underdog team like UNC, this was free advertising on national TV. You want the game to last as long as possible.
— Even if they lost in overtime, it would be a great headline: “Tar Heels take Clemson to OT”
— All the pressure, 100% of it, is on Clemson. Play as long as you can; maybe they’ll screw it up.

— The game was televised on ESPN; Mack Brown spent the last five years working for ESPN, so all the announcers did was talk him up. The more of this, the better.
— The more recruits see of your stadium and enthusiastic fans, the better for you.
— Even if they get the 2-point conversion, Clemson had 1:17 left to try and beat them.

12) Oklahoma 55, Texas Tech 16— Jalen Hurts was 16-23/413 passing; how long can Oklahoma keep coach Lincoln Riley from jumping to the NFL?

Hurts is now 30-2 as a starting QB in college; in a perfect world, Alabama-Oklahoma would hook up in a January bowl game, Hurts against his old team. Good theater.

11) Alabama 59, Ole Miss 31— Tua Tagovailoa was 26-36/418 and six TD’s; Devonta Smith caught 11 balls for 274 yards and five TD”s. Thats a full day.

10) Baylor 23, Iowa State 21— Bears blew a 20-0 4th quarter lead on a hot day in Waco, then drove 49 yards on 14 plays and kicked the winning FG with 0:34 left. ISU had taken the lead on an 88-yard TD pass with 3:52 left.

9) Michigan 52, Rutgers 0— Why is Rutgers in the Big 14? What do they bring to the league?

Scarlet Knights are now 3-26 SU in conference play since joining the league; they’ve been outscored 82-0 in two league games this season.

In three years of Big 14 basketball, Rutgers is 13-43 in conference games; they haven’t been to the NCAA tournament since 1991. i won’t even bring up that the Big 14 is a midwestern league and Rutgers is in freakin’ New Jersey.

It makes no sense; UConn would’ve been a better add, if they were so insistent on having an eastern team in the league. At least the Huskies are strong in basketball.

8) Arizona 20, UCLA 17— Arizona’s senior QB Tate sat this one out with an injury, but UCLA missed a short FG in last minute and falls to 1-4, and they trailed 49-17 in the game they won. Freshman QB Gunnell was 29-44/352 passing for Arizona.

7) Upsets:
— Houston (+7.5) 46, North Texas 25
— UMass (+7) 37, Akron 29
— Arkansas State (+7) 50, Troy 43
— Arizona State (+4) 24, California 17

6) SMU 48, South Florida 21— Mustangs are 5-0, averaging 44.4 ppg and they’ve beaten TCU.

5) Duke 45, Virginia Tech 10— This was the Hokies’ worst home loss since 1974; they haven’t had back/back losing seasons since 1991-92, but appear headed that way this year.

4) Utah 38, Washington State 13— Last week the Coogs led UCLA 49-17 late in the 3rd quarter; in their last 79:00 of play, Wazzu has been outscored 105-27. Not good. Tough coaching job for Mike Leach now, restoring his players’ confidence.

3) Houston 46, North Texas 25— Cougars’ new QB Tune was 16-20/124 passing, and ran for 100 yards; line moved 10 points towards North Texas after Houston QB King red-shirted, so this was a good result for the bookmakers.

AAC teams were 4-0 out of conference this week, 3-0 vs C-USA teams.

2) Wisconsin 24, Northwestern 15— Two of Badgers’ three TD’s were scored by their defense. Northwestern has now covered 15 of last 19 games as a road underdog.

1) Wyoming 53, UNLV 17— Wyoming ran the ball for 374 yards, and also averaged 10.2 yards per pass attempt. Ugly numbers. The new dome in Las Vegas opens next year; it is becoming less clear if Tony Sanchez will still be UNLV’s coach when next year gets here.

**Udog** · 09-29-2019, 08:49 AM

WNBA Finals Cheat Sheet

The 2019 WNBA Finals will begin on Sunday Sept. 29 as the Connecticut Sun and Washington Mystics meet in a best-of-five series.

Oddsmakers at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Mystics as minus-300 favorites (Bet $100 to win $33) while the Sun have a return of plus-260 (Bet $100 to win $260).

Finals Schedule

Game 1 – Connecticut at Washington (Sunday, Sept. 29, 3:05 p.m. ET)
Game 2 – Connecticut at Washington (Tuesday, Oct. 1, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Game 3 – Washington at Connecticut (Sunday, Oct. 6, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Game 4 – Washington at Connecticut (Tuesday, Oct. 8, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Game 5 – Connecticut at Washington (Thursday, Oct. 10, 8:00 p.m. ET)

(1) Washington vs. (2) Connecticut

2019 Regular Season Meetings

May 25 – Connecticut (-5.5) 84 vs. Washington 69 (Under 166 ½)
June 11 – Connecticut (-3) 83 vs. Washington 75 (Under 166 ½)
June 29 – Washington (-7) 102 vs. Connecticut 59 (Under 161 ½)

Playoff Form

-- Connecticut won and covered all three matchups against Los Angeles in the semifinals as it pulled off the three-game sweep.

-- The Sun won by an average of 19 points per game and the defense only allowed 66.3 PPG, which helped the ‘under’ cash in every decision.

-- Washington advanced past Las Vegas in four games of the semifinals. Despite posting a 3-1 record in that series, the Mystics went 1-3 against the spread for bettors.

-- The Mystics averaged 94.3 PPG in their wins and were held to 75 in the lone loss. The ‘over’ went 3-1.

ATS Numbers

-- The home team won and covered all three encounters between the pair this season, with the results coming by an average of 33 PPG.

-- Connecticut owns a 17-19-1 ATS mark this season.

-- At home, Connecticut has gone 17-2 straight up and 12-7 ATS.

-- On the road, the Sun struggled to a 5-12-1 ATS mark for bettors despite a 9-9 record.

-- The point-spread hasn’t matter when the Sun have been listed as an underdog this season. Connecticut has gone 3-3 both SU and ATS in that role.

-- Including the playoffs, Washington has produced a 21-16-1 ATS mark this season.

-- At home, the Mystics have gone 16-3 SU and 12-16-1 ATS.

-- The club has produced a 13-6 SU and 9-10 ATS mark on the road.

-- Washington was listed as an underdog four times this season and it went 2-2 both SU and ATS in that role.

-- Coincidentally, the two setbacks came to Connecticut (see above).

-- Game 2, 4 and 5 will be played on one day of rest. The Sun went 10-5 SU and 8-7 ATS playing with the short break this season while Washington was a tad better at 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS.

-- The pair will have three or more days of rest between the first and third installments. Both Connecticut (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) and Washington (9-2 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) have fared well with the extra rest.

-- Sticking with the above, Game 1 and 3 are afternoon matchups. Connecticut has gone 6-9 ATS in day games while the Mystics own a solid 10-4 ATS mark.

Total Talk

-- The ‘under’ went 3-0 in this year’s regular season meetings between the pair.

-- In 2018, the two clubs saw their total results go 2-2.

-- Make a note that Washington has scored 75, 69 and 68 points in their last three trips to the Mohegan Sun Arena.

-- Including the postseason, the Sun watched the ‘under’ go 20-17 while Washington was a great ‘over’ wager (23-15).

-- Connecticut saw both its home (10-9) and away (10-8) records lean to the low side.

-- Washington saw the ‘over’ go 12-7 at home and 11-8 on the road.

-- As mentioned above, Game 1 and 3 will be afternoon tilts and even though the Mystics were an ‘over’ club this season, the high side was just 8-6 in day games. Connecticut watched the ‘under’ go 10-5 in afternoon spots.

WNBA Finals - Notable Trends

-- Both teams are aiming for their first WNBA title. While the Mystics were swept by Seattle in the finals last year, the Sun haven't been here since consecutive appearances in 2004-05. They were coached by Mike Thibault, who now ironically leads Washington.

-- Favorites have gone 13-8 straight up and 9-11-1 ATS in the last five finals.

WNBA History

-- Home squads have produced a 12-9 straight up record during this span.

-- Total bettors have watched more ‘under’ tickets connect in the last dance with the low side holding a slight 12-9 lean.

Stats to Watch

-- Washington has been an offensive machine, ranked first in points (89.3), field goal percentage (46.9%) and free throw percentage (87.5%).

-- The Mystics also led the league in 3-pointers attempted per game (25.4) and they were second in percentage (36.6%) from downtown.

-- Connecticut was ranked third in 3-point shooting percentage (35.6%).

-- That effort helped the Sun averaged 80.8 PPG, which was ranked fourth. That number could’ve been improved but Connecticut was ranked last in free throw percentage (70.3 PPG).

-- Washington surrendered 77.2 PPG defensively, ranked fourth in the league. Connecticut was a few hairs behind at 77.9 PPG.

Players to Watch – Notable Quotes

Connecticut

The Sun have benefited by having a healthy year from their starting lineup; the team used the same five players to begin every game. Jasmine Thomas, Alyssa Thomas, Shekinna Stricklen, Courtney Williams and Jonquel Jones all have the ability to have big games, making them tough to game plan against.

The core of Alyssa Thomas (11.6 points, 7.8 rebounds), Jasmine Thomas (11.1, 5.1) and Jonquel Jones (14.6, 9.7) has been together since 2016. Point guard Courtney Williams (13.2, 5.6 and 3.2 assists) joined them in 2017. Jasmine Thomas says they're like a college team that is dominated by seniors and understand how to play with each other.

''We take pride in team basketball. That's what we have fun doing on the defensive and offensive end,'' said Jasmine Thomas. ''But I think we definitely have stars here. We have All-Stars; we have the best 3-point shooter in the league (Shekinna Stricklen - 3rd in the WNBA). We have people who are reaching milestones in their career so early. We do play team basketball, but we absolutely have stars.''

Washington

This Mystics team is very different than the one that got swept by Seattle last season.

The Mystics are led by forward Elena Delle Donne, who was named the 2019 WNBA MVP in a near-unanimous vote. Delle Donne averaged 19.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.2 assists and shot a league-high 97.4% from the free throw line.

Along side EDD is Emma Meesseman, who missed the 2018 season while preparing for the Women's World Cup with Belgium. Meesseman was a huge reason the Mystics were able to advance past Las Vegas, winning the series in Game 4 as she had 22 points in the win.

''We didn't have Emma. We're a different team when she's on it,'' Delle Donne said. ''We got a really good Connecticut team coming in. They are playing really great basketball. We'll focus on them and figure some things out.''

While the Mystics have been in this position before, only guard Kristi Toliver has won a title, doing so with Los Angeles in 2016. She had been sidelined with her own bone bruise before returning for the playoffs. She started in Game 4 of the series against Las Vegas - the first time she had done so in the playoffs.

**Udog** · 09-29-2019, 08:53 AM

WNBA
Dunkel

Sunday, September 29

Connecticut @ Washington

Game 601-602
September 29, 2019 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Connecticut
112.245
Washington
122.830
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 10 1/2
179
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 7 1/2
165 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-7 1/2); Over

WNBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, September 29

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CONNECTICUT (26 - 11) at WASHINGTON (28 - 9) - 9/29/2019, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) in road games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games after scoring 75 points or more this season.
WASHINGTON is 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games on Sunday games this season.
WASHINGTON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home games vs. division opponents this season.
WASHINGTON is 40-61 ATS (-27.1 Units) in home games when playing with 3 or more days rest since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 7-3 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 6-4 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA

Sunday, September 29

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Trend Report
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Washington Mystics
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 11 games at home
Washington is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Connecticut
Washington is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Connecticut
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Connecticut
Washington is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing at home against Connecticut
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Connecticut
Washington is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Connecticut
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Connecticut
Connecticut Sun
Connecticut is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Connecticut is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
Connecticut is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Connecticut is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Connecticut is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Washington
Connecticut is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Connecticut's last 5 games when playing Washington
Connecticut is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Connecticut is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Washington
Connecticut is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Connecticut's last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington

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Announcement

Sunday's WNBA Trends and Indexes - 9/29

Sunday's WNBA Trends and Indexes - 9/29

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