Thursday's WNBA Trends and Indexes - 9/5

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Thursday, September 5

Good Luck on day #248 of 2019!

NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


Matchup Links


WNBA Matchups

WNBA Hot and Not

WNBA Data Base

[Udog]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

— A’s 6, Angels 0— Rookie C Murphy caught a shutout, hit a home run in his first big league game.

— Pirates 6, Marlins 5— Bryan Reynolds had a walk-off bloop single for the Bucs.

— Giants 9, Cardinals 8— Pillar’s two-run tater in 8th inning was the game-winner.

— Arizona 4, Padres 1— Rookie P Gallen tossed seven shutout innings.

— Reds 8, Phillies 5— Cincy’s Michael Lorenzen became the first player to earn a win, hit a HR and play in the field in the same game since Babe Ruth in 1921.

— Dodgers’ Joc Pederson hit five HR’s in a span of six AB’s, first time thats been done since Barry Bonds in 2001.


**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) Ezekiel Elliott got a 6-year contract extension from the Cowboys worth more than $90M, with $50M+ in guarantees. Cowboys are 28-12 in regular season games when Elliott plays, and so he got paid.

12) Scary moment in Houston Tuesday night when Astros CF George Springer made a leaping catch in centerfield, but then stumbled and the back of his head hit the wall. Springer was in obvious pain and left the game.

11) Rhode Island is the 7th state with a mobile sports betting app; 13 states have sports betting, but the mobile app really increases betting handle.

I was sitting at a bar when we heard that Andrew Luck retired; imagine being able to grab your phone, jump into the betting app and trying to capitalize on that news? Would’ve been fun.

10) Football Outsiders Almanac projects the Miami Dolphins to be the NFL’s worst team; their projection is the worst one for any team since the 2012 Rams, who also had a new coach (Jeff Fisher) but they improved from 2-14 (under Steve Spagnuolo in 2011) to 7-8-1 that year.

What Miami is doing this seems similar to what the Raiders did LY, when they traded Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper for draft picks. Raiders finished 4-12 last year.

9) Speaking of the Raiders, my review of HBO’s Hard Knocks this summer:

— They didn’t show when guys get released, which is usually the most interesting part of the show; most of the late cuts get picked up somewhere else, anyway.

— Too much Jon Gruden; he’s gotten ton of airtime the last few years.

— Antonio Brown is finally healthy (His father was a great player in the Arena League– played for the Albany Firebirds)

Was reading an article that said that Gruden/Mike Mayock wanted no part of being in Hard Knocks, but this was owner Mark Davis’ doing. That probably explains why HBO wasn’t given very good access.

8) By the way, Raiders have already fined Antonio Brown $53,950 for missing mandatory preseason activities.

7) Washington QB Jake Haener has transferred to Fresno State, where he’ll play for Jeff Tedford, who was Aaron Rodgers’ college coach. He’ll sit this season out and then will be eligible to play two more years.

6) Michigan State lost its long snapper, a 5th-year senior; he’s being replaced by a freshman.

5) New York 4, Texas 1— Bronx is now 10-0 the last ten times Will Little umped the plate in one of their games.

4) Around 11pm Wednesday, someone wagered $30,000 on the Buffalo Bills over 6.5 wins this season; the Westgate SuperBook reacted by moving up Bills’ win total up to 7 wins.

3) TV guys totally missed this Monday night, but there was a play in the Notre Dame-Louisville game Monday night when ND quarterback Ian Book threw a pass away, with the ball going way out of bounds- it drilled a Louisville cheerleader in the face.

Turns out the young lady broke her nose and is seeing a specialist for treatment. Not good.

2) Something to keep in mind when handicapping September baseball; some of the teams that aren’t contending aren’t 100% trying to win; they have to take a look at their younger players, and some teams have innings limits on their pitchers.

Wednesday night in Arizona, San Diego took starting P Chris Paddack out of a 0-0 game in the sixth inning because he hit the 90-pitch mark; if the Padres were contending, no way he comes out there. But they don’t want Paddack overextending himself, so he came out.

1) I still disagree with teams who bat their pitcher 8th, and I’ve spent way too much time thinking about why they do it. It makes very little sense to me.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday’s extra list of 13: College football trends from outside the top 13 games of the week

Ohio U covered six of last seven tries as a road underdog; Bobcats ran ball for 278 yards in 41-20 win over a I-AA foe LW. Ohio has a senior QB, an OL with only 45 returning starts. Pittsburgh was held to 263 yards in its 30-14 loss to ACC rival Virginia LW; under Narduzzi, Panthers are 5-10-1 ATS as a home favorite. Last three years, ACC teams are 11-2 vs spread when playing a MAC opponent.

Old Dominion (+27) outscored Virginia Tech 28-7 in 4th quarter of 49-35 upset win LY; total yardage in game was 632-600, ODU. Monarchs lost 13 of 22 starters from LY; they’re 5-4 ATS as a road underdog. Tech was minus-4 in turnovers in its 35-28 loss at BC last week; under Fuente, Hokies are 9-5 ATS as home favorites. Last four years, ACC teams are 11-5 vs spread when they play a C-USA opponent.

UAB completed only 8-20 passes in its 24-19 win over I-AA Alabama State LW; Blazers are 2-3 ATS as a road favorite. UAB has a soph QB and an OL with only 30 returning starts. Akron is just 8-22 ATS in its last 30 games as a home underdog; Zips got waxed 42-3 at Illinois LW, giving up 207 yards on ground. Last four years, MAC teams are 15-8-1 ATS when playing a C-USA opponent.

Vanderbilt was outgained 481-225 at home in a 30-6 loss to Georgia LW; under Mason, Commodores are 13-11 ATS as a road underdog- they’re 6-3 ATS in last nine games outside the SEC. Purdue blew 24-7 halftime lead in LW’s 34-31 loss at Nevada; under Brohm, Boilers are 4-5 ATS as a home favorite. Last four years, SEC teams are 8-5 vs spread when playing a Big 14 opponent.

Iowa (-13) won 14-7 at Rutgers three years ago, in teams’ only meeting. Scarlet Knights won their opener 48-21 over UMass- they outgained Minutemen 548-307. Under Ash, Rutgers is 7-8 ATS as a road underdog. Hawkeyes covered five of last seven tries as a home favorite- they drilled Miami OH last week, outgaining Red Hawks, 465-245. Iowa has a senior QB but only four starters back on defense.

North Texas (-4) beat SMU 46-23 LY, ending its 3-game skid against the Mustangs; Mean Green beat a I-AA team 51-31 LW, but they gave up 456 yards. UNT has a senior QB (37 starts). SMU won its opener 37-30 at Arkansas State LW, gaining 508 TY. Mustangs are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Last 6+ years, AAC teams are 15-13 vs spread when playing C-USA teams.

South Florida (+3) beat Georgia Tech 49-38 LY, despite giving up 419 YR- Tech doesn’t run the option anymore- they lost their opener 52-14 at Clemson LW, giving up 411 YR to the Tigers. Tech is 9-5 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite. Over last decade, USF is 20-10 ATS as a road underdog. Bulls got hammered 49-0 by Wisconsin LW. AAC are 16-9 ATS in their last 25 games vs ACC opponents.

Tulsa hammered San Jose State 45-10 (-5) in last meeting in 2016; Golden Hurricane was held to 80 yards LW in its 28-7 loss at Michigan State- Tulsa had minus-73 YR. Last three years, Tulsa is 1-3 ATS as a road favorite. San Jose beat a I-AA team 35-18 LW; Spartans are 6-4-1 in last 11 games as a home underdog. Last three years, Mountain West teams are 10-0 vs spread when playing an AAC opponent.

Over last six years, UConn is 3-22 ATS outside its conference, 0-12 last three years. Illinois had 207 yards running, 194 passing in its 42-3 win over Akron LW; Illini has 10 starters back on defense, but a new QB. Over last five years, Illini is 3-0 ATS as a road favorite. UConn held off I-AA Wagner 24-21 LW, a red flag; Huskies are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog. AAC teams are 8-5 ATS in their last 13 games vs Big 14 opponents.

Arkansas State (-7.5) beat UNLV 27-20 at home LY; Rebels ran ball for 310 yards, though. Last three years, ASU is 8-9 ATS on road. Red Wolves lost their opener 37-30 at home to SMU LW. UNLV hammered a I-AA team LW; Rebels are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 home games, 9-15 under Sanchez. Last three years, Mountain West teams are 8-3-1 vs spread when playing a Sun Belt opponent.

San Diego State beat a I-AA team 6-0 LW, gaining only 238 TY with 14 first downs- not good. Last three year, Aztecs are 3-1 as road underdogs- they’ve got a senior QB and an OL with 69 returning starts. UCLA lost 24-14 at Cincy LW, completing 8-26 passes, gaining only 218 yards. Last five years, Bruins are 8-15 as a home favorite. Last three years, Mountain West teams are 13-10 ATS when playing a Pac-12 opponent.

Trap game for Wyoming after they beat Missouri LW as 18-point dogs. Wyoming (-16) drilled Texas State 45-10 in last meeting two years ago, but that was with Josh Allen at QB. Cowboys are 3-6 ATS in last nine non-league games. TSU lost 41-7 at Texas A&M LW; they’re 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as a home underdog. Last three years, Mountain West teams are 8-3-1 vs spread when playing a Sun Belt opponent.

Central Florida (-13) waxed Florida Atlantic 56-36, gaining 545 TY. last three years, UCF is 7-2 ATS as a road favorite. Knights have a senior who transferred from Notre Dame- their OL has 75 returning starts. FAU was down 28-0 after 8:10 at Ohio State LW; Owls covered only once in their last eight tries as a home underdog. Last 6+ years, AAC teams are 15-13 vs spread when playing C-USA teams.

[Udog]

WNBA

Thursday, September 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Atlanta Dream
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Atlanta's last 11 games
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games when playing Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Atlanta's last 15 games when playing Las Vegas
Atlanta is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against Las Vegas
Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Las Vegas is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Las Vegas's last 9 games
Las Vegas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Las Vegas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Las Vegas is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Las Vegas's last 15 games when playing Atlanta
Las Vegas is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta

Los Angeles Sparks
Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Los Angeles's last 12 games
Los Angeles is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Los Angeles is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Los Angeles is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Seattle
Los Angeles is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Los Angeles's last 10 games when playing Seattle
Los Angeles is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Los Angeles's last 18 games when playing at home against Seattle
Seattle Storm
Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Seattle's last 19 games on the road
Seattle is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Los Angeles
Seattle is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Seattle's last 10 games when playing Los Angeles
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Seattle's last 18 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

WNBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LAS VEGAS (20 - 11) at ATLANTA (7 - 25) - 9/5/2019, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-4 against the spread versus LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 5-3 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (17 - 15) at LOS ANGELES (20 - 12) - 9/5/2019, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 5-3 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 4-4 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

WNBA
Dunkel

Thursday, September 5


Las Vegas @ Atlanta

Game 603-604
September 5, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Las Vegas
115.714
Atlanta
103.105
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Las Vegas
by 12 1/2
170
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Las Vegas
by 11
159 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Las Vegas
(-11); Over

Seattle @ Los Angeles

Game 605-606
September 5, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
103.617
Los Angeles
116.478
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles
by 13
157
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Los Angeles
by 5 1/2
152 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
(-5 1/2); Over