Announcement

**Udog** · 08-08-2019, 08:43 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

— Mets 7, Marlins 2— New York won 13 of its last 14 games.

— Dodgers 2, Cardinals 1— LA scored twice in bottom of 9th.

— New York 14, Orioles 2— NY has 40 homers in 10 games at Camden Yards.

— Braves 11, Twins 7— Atlanta scored 23 runs in the last two games.

— Indians 2-5, Rangers 0-1— Cleveland sweeps a twinbill, allowing one run.

— If the playoffs started today (they don’t):
NL: Braves-Cubs-Dodgers. Wild Card: Phil/Mil @ Wash
AL: New York-Twins-Astros. Wild Card: Rays @ Indians

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) From 2015-17, Cleveland Browns were 4-44; LY, they went 7-8-1, but they let Gregg Williams walk and hired QB coach Freddie Kitchens instead- he’s never been a head coach. Browns were 9-4 vs spread as an underdog LY; they were 12-30-1 the previous three years.

Browns were +7 in turnovers LY, after being -9/-12/-28 the three years before that; finally having a good QB was a big part of that.

12) Tennessee Titans have gone 9-7 the last three years, despite not having a positive turnover ratio in any of those years (even/-1/-4). Titans only made playoffs once in those years, and even fired a head coach after he made the playoffs, and won a playoff game.

Last three years, Titans are 6-1 vs spread as a divisional home favorite, 2-4-2 as non-divisional home favorite.

11) In four years since letting Jim Harbaugh walk, the 49ers are 17-47; they were 44-19-1 when he was their coach (5-3 in playoffs).

Since 2014, Niners are 13-19 vs spread as a road underdog. Over is 20-12 in their road games the last four years. SF was -25 in turnovers LY; Garoppolo got hurt and they played backup QB’s all season. Garoppolo is back now; how much of a bounce does that give the 49ers?

10) Bruce Arians was 49-30-1 as coach of the Cardinals; he was 20-12-1 vs spread in games with a spread of 3 or fewer points, which is very strong.

This is Jameis Winston’s 5th year in the NFL; Buccaneers are 25-39 in his first four seasons, 21-33 in Winston’s starts— it is going to be on Winston if things don’t get better this season.

Last five years, Tampa Bay is 4-13 vs spread as a home favorite.

9) Seahawks are 75-36-1 SU in the Russell Wilson era (8-5 in playoffs); since 2014, Seattle is 6-0 vs spread as an underdog vs NFC West opponents. Since 2011, Seahawks covered 10 of 12 games as a home underdog.

Seattle was +15 in turnovers last year; over last four years they’re +30.

8) Cincinnati Bengals haven’t won a playoff game since 1990; Marvin Lewis went 131-122-3 in 16 years as the Bengals’ coach, but he was 0-7 in playoff games, so Cincy turns to rookie head coach Zach Taylor, who is the son-in-law of former Packer coach Mike Sherman.

Over last decade, Bengals are 42-27-5 vs spread as an underdog, 14-7-1 at home. Cincy won four of its last five Week 1 games, with all four wins on the road.

7) Last year, Houston Texans ran the ball on 53% of 2nd-down plays that followed 1st down incompletions, most in the NFL. Analytics people will tell you that is a bad thing.

6) Over last decade, underdogs are 22-8 vs spread in Jets’ AFC East home games; they’re 5-11 as a favorite when hosting a division foe, 11-3 when an underdog.

Over last four years, Jets are 5-12-1 vs spread on grass; since 2011, they’re 8-18-2 vs spread as an non-divisional road underdog. Over is 19-11-1 in their home games the last four years.

5) From 2015-17, Buffalo was 22-20 in Tyrod Taylor’s starts; they made the playoffs in 2017 for the first time since 1999, but then they drafted QB Josh Allen, shipped Taylor off to Cleveland and regressed to 6-10 LY, with seven losses by 11+ points.

Over last five years, Buffalo is 7-2-2 vs spread as a non-divisional road underdog; last three years, they’re 4-7 as a home underdog.

Allen’s development is essential; Bills were 33-31 in the four years before he got to Buffalo.

4) From 2005-2016, Rams were 60-113-1; in two years under Sean McVay, they’re 24-8, with a +19 turnover ratio. Under McVay, Rams are 10-5 at home, 14-3 on road.

LA is reshuffling its offensive line this year; they’ll have new starters at left guard/center.

3) Since 2014, Carolina Panthers are 7-3 vs spread as a home underdog[ 3-3 in divisional games, 4-0 outside NFC South. Since 2012, Panthers are 22-11 as a road underdog, 6-16-1 as a road favorite. Carolina won four of last five Week 1 games, allowing 14 or fewer points in all four wins.

2) Jacksonville has had one winning season since 2007 (10-6 in ’17); they were +10 in turnovers that year. Nick Foles spent two years as a backup QB on Andy Reid-coached teams, starting seven games; he’s won a Super Bowl but has never started more than 11 games in a season.

None of Jacksonville’s backup QB’s have ever played in an NFL game.

Last six years, Jaguars are 4-20 vs spread when facing an NFC team; this year will be the 8th year in a row they’ll be a Week 1 underdog (3-4 vs spread in last seven).

1) Kansas City’s turnover ratios the last four years: +9/+15/+16/+14- thats +54 in 64 games.   Last three years, Chiefs scored 33-42-38 points in their season opener. KC covered nine of its last 12 games as a road underdog. Over last four years, Chiefs are 12-5 vs spread in games with a spread of 3 or fewer points.

**Udog** · 08-08-2019, 08:48 AM

WNBA
Dunkel

Thursday, August 8

Indiana @ Washington

Game 643-644
August 8, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
103.957
Washington
121.439
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 17 1/2
176
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
N/A

Phoenix @ Los Angeles

Game 645-646
August 8, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
107.123
Los Angeles
113.540
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles
by 6 1/2
151
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Los Angeles
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
N/A

Dallas @ Seattle

Game 647-648
August 8, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
106.112
Seattle
108.595
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 2 1/2
156
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
N/A

WNBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, August 8

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANA (8 - 15) at WASHINGTON (14 - 7) - 8/8/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 22-34 ATS (-15.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 16-27 ATS (-13.7 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 28-42 ATS (-18.2 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15+ games after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-3 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 8-0 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHOENIX (11 - 10) at LOS ANGELES (13 - 8) - 8/8/2019, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in August or September games over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in a road game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in August or September games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) after scoring 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 7-4 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 9-2 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (6 - 16) at SEATTLE (12 - 11) - 8/8/2019, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in August or September games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 132-89 ATS (+34.1 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1997.
SEATTLE is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 45-23 ATS (+19.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 6-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 6-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WNBA

Thursday, August 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indiana Fever
Indiana is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Indiana is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
Indiana is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Indiana is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Washington
Indiana is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing Washington
Indiana is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Indiana is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Indiana's last 16 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington Mystics
Washington is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games
Washington is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Indiana
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Indiana
Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indiana
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Washington's last 16 games when playing at home against Indiana

Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Phoenix is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Phoenix's last 12 games
Phoenix is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Phoenix is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games on the road
Phoenix is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
Phoenix is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Los Angeles
Phoenix is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing Los Angeles
Phoenix is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Phoenix is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Los Angeles Sparks
Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Los Angeles is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 6 games
Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Los Angeles is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Los Angeles's last 25 games at home
Los Angeles is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Phoenix
Los Angeles is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Phoenix
Los Angeles is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Phoenix
Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Phoenix
Los Angeles is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix

Dallas Wings
Dallas is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Dallas's last 22 games
Dallas is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
Dallas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Dallas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle Storm
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Seattle's last 23 games
Seattle is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Seattle is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games at home
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Announcement

Thursday's WNBA Trends and Indexes - 8/8

Thursday's WNBA Trends and Indexes - 8/8

Comment

Comment