Announcement

**Udog** · 07-12-2019, 09:00 AM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Over/under win totals for NFL teams for this season:

— Pittsburgh Steelers 9 (over -$125)

— San Francisco 49ers 8 (over-$120)

— Seattle Seahawks 8.5 (over -$140)

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.5 (under -$120)

— Tennessee Titans 8 (under -$130)

— Washington Redskins 6.5 (under -$140)

**********

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: NFL knowledge on a summer day

13) Cleveland has a first-time head coach, a star WR who has played one game in December the last two years (3 catches for 35 yards) and high expectations (they’re favored to win the AFC North, at 5-4 odds). Lot of combustible personalities for a team that is 1-18-1 in season openers, but Mayfield showed great promise at QB LY, and 2nd year QB’s have done well lately.

Browns went 7-9 LY despite a +7 turnover ratio, after going 1-31 the previous two years; they spent the most $$$ in NFL LY on WR’s, and now they add Beckham, not the most dependable guy (played in 16 of 32 games the last two years).

Last three years, Cleveland is 2-22 SU on road; under is 16-6-1 in their last 23 home games. Browns are favored to win their division; they’ve been favored in only four of their last 48 games.

12) Troy Aikman says you can’t teach a QB to be accurate, which has to be scary for Buffalo’s fans; Josh Allen ranked 39th among 39 qualified QB’s in adjusted completion %age; he was dead last (28%) in completion %age while under pressure. No bueno.

Buffalo spent the most $$$ in the NFL LY on running backs; they ran the ball the 5th-most in the league. Bills went 6-10 LY but was 3-0 in games decided by 3 or fewer points, a red flag. Allen has to throw the ball better, or else…….

11) Cincinnati hired Zac Taylor as HC because he worked for Sean McVay for a year; Taylor’s father-in-law is former Green Bay coach Mike Sherman. Bengals scored 31.5 ppg in their first four games LY but once TE Tyler Eifert got hurt, their offense went in the ashcan (20.2 ppg) the rest of the season.

Last two years, Bengals are 12-7 vs spread as an underdog; they were 2-5 LY in games decided by 8 or fewer points. Taylor took a long time hiring a defensive coordinator; we’ll see if finally firing Marvin Lewis (131-122-3 in 16 years as HC) was a good move.

10) Atlanta Falcons ran 73 plays inside opponents’ 10-yard line LY; Falcons’ success on plays inside 10-yard line ranked 28th in NFL.The new OC is Dirk Koetter; last time he called plays in the NFL was 2017, when his Tampa Bay Bucs ranked 24th in red zone offense- he’ll need to do better than that this year.

Last two years, Atlanta is 2-6 vs spread as an underdog, 4-11 vs spread in true road games.

9) Dallas was 9-3 LY in games decided by 8 or fewer points; they spent the most $$$ in the league on their offensive line. Prescott is the 43rd-highest paid QB in the NFL for one more year, but they’ll have to break the bank for him next winter.

Last three years, Cowboys are 16-10 vs spread as a favorite; under is 17-7 in their road games.

8) Lions were #2 in NFL LY in $$ spent on QB’s; Matthew Stafford has a 66-75 career record in the NFL, 0-3 in playoff games. He is 31 years old.

Last two years, Detroit is 10-5 vs spread on road, 8-4 vs spread when favored. LY was the Lions’ worst SU record since 2012; they fired Jim Caldwell after consecutive 9-7 seasons, and hired a first-time HC because he was on a team with Tom Brady.

Lions’ last playoff win was in 1991; I still had hair in 1991.

7) Last time a college coach jumped to the NFL with as much fanfare as Kliff Kingsbury going to Arizona was Chip Kelly going from Oregon to the Eagles in 2013, but Kelly wasn’t fired at Oregon. Philly had a minus-24 turnover ratio in 2012; it improved to +12 in 2013, the biggest reason why the Iggles improved from 4-12 to 10-6. Eagles wound up going 27-22 under Kelly, 0-1 in playoffs.

Last year’s Cardinals were minus-12 in turnovers; is a similar scenario going to play out? Redbirds went 1-7 SU at home LY, after going 9-6 in 2016-17. Kingsbury is their third HC in three years, with a rookie QB starting- they’ll be interesting.

6) Aaron Rodgers will be 36 in December; he played LY with a broken bone in his leg and an MCL sprain, but he didn’t get along with coach McCarthy, so coach McCarthy is ex-coach McCarthy, and Matt LaFleur is the new coach, in part because he worked for Sean McVay.

Green Bay is 13-19 SU the last two years; they were 3-6 LY in one-score games. Packers are 5-12 vs spread in their last 17 games as an underdog.

If you play fantasy football, Davante Adams was targeted on 28 red zone plays LY; no one else had more than nine such targets. Will that change under LaFleur?

5) NFL QB’s drafted from 2012-17 went 37-59 SU as rookies, 63-44 in their second year, and Mitch Trubisky (4-8 in ’17, 11-3 LY) followed that pattern LY.

Bears were +12 in turnovers LY, which will be hard to duplicate; they were +17 in sacks, had 17 fewer penalties, and three more (6-3) return TD’s.They better have a good season this year; their salary cap for 2020 is a mess- they’ll likely need to purge some veterans next winter.

4) Ravens were 6-1 LY when Lamar Jackson started at QB, 4-5 when Joe Flacco started; now Flacco lives in Denver. Ravens ranked 31st in NFL LY in money spent on QB’s; they ranked #1 in spending on cornerbacks.

Average total in a Ravens’ game in 2017 was 40.6; LY, it was 44.8. Six of Flacco’s last seven starts stayed under the total. Baltimore scored 20+ points in all seven Jackson starts, with only loss 27-24 at KC- over was 4-3.

3) Denver went 6-10 LY despite a +7 turnover ratio; they’ll have their 4th different #1 QB in five years this season, with Keenum off to Washington. Broncos were #29 in NFL LY in $$$ spent on their offense; despite that, their offense efficiency improved from 31st to 14th, but they hired defensive-minded Fangio as their new coach. Go figure.

Last two years, Broncos are 4-10 vs spread as a favorite, 1-6 at home. Not good.

2) Last year, Houston led the NFL in $$$ spent on defense; they were 30th in $$$ spent on their offense— playing a young QB helps there. Watson is 14-6 as an NFL starter; Texans jumped from 4-12 to 11-5 LY- they went 1-3 vs Brady/Luck, 10-2 vs an assortment of average to lousy QB’s on the rest of their schedule.

11 of Houston’s 16 games LY were decided by one score; they were +13 in turnovers, which is a major red flag when you combine those two. Hard to go +13 again and if they don’t, those close games go the other way.

DeAndre Hopkins had 19 red zone targets LY; no one else had more than eight.

1) Carolina Panthers have never had consecutive winning seasons, so LY’s 7-9 record could be a source of optimism- they were 3-7 in games decided by 8 or fewer pioints. Panthers haven’t won a playoff game since losing the Super Bowl after the 2015 season. It would help if Cam Newton’s shoulder is healthy, which remains to be seen.

Last three years, Carolina is 2-7 as a road favorite; Panthers led the NFL LY in $$ spent on defensive linemen- their overall defensive efficiency slipped from #7 to #22 LY.

**Udog** · 07-12-2019, 09:02 AM

WNBA
Long Sheet

Friday, July 12

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LOS ANGELES (7 - 7) at INDIANA (6 - 10) - 7/12/2019, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 4-2 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 4-2 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (9 - 6) at ATLANTA (4 - 10) - 7/12/2019, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-3 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 5-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHOENIX (7 - 6) at CONNECTICUT (9 - 6) - 7/12/2019, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 7-1 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 5-3 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW YORK (7 - 8) at CHICAGO (7 - 8) - 7/12/2019, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 4-4 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-4 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (5 - 9) at SEATTLE (8 - 8) - 7/12/2019, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 5-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 5-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA

Friday, July 12

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Trend Report
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Los Angeles Sparks
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games
Los Angeles is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Los Angeles is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Los Angeles is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Los Angeles's last 14 games when playing Indiana
Los Angeles is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Los Angeles is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 6 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana Fever
Indiana is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Indiana is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Indiana is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Indiana's last 23 games at home
Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indiana's last 14 games when playing Los Angeles
Indiana is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
Indiana is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing at home against Los Angeles

Minnesota Lynx
Minnesota is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Minnesota's last 20 games on the road
Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Minnesota is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Minnesota's last 15 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta Dream
Atlanta is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
Atlanta is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
Atlanta is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Minnesota
Atlanta is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Atlanta's last 15 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Phoenix is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Phoenix's last 9 games
Phoenix is 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
Phoenix is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 7 games on the road
Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Connecticut
Phoenix is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Connecticut
Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Connecticut
Phoenix is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Connecticut
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing on the road against Connecticut
Connecticut Sun
Connecticut is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Connecticut is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Connecticut is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Connecticut is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Connecticut is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home
Connecticut is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Connecticut is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Phoenix
Connecticut is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix
Connecticut is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Connecticut's last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix

New York Liberty
New York is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
New York is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 5 games
New York is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
New York is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New York is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 5 games when playing Chicago
New York is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
New York is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago Sky
Chicago is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing New York
Chicago is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against New York
Chicago is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against New York
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against New York

Dallas Wings
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Dallas's last 14 games
Dallas is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Dallas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Seattle
Dallas is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Seattle
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 9 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle Storm
Seattle is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games
Seattle is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Seattle is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 10 games at home
Seattle is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Dallas
Seattle is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Dallas
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 9 games when playing at home against Dallas

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**Udog** · 07-12-2019, 01:08 PM

WNBA
Dunkel

Friday, July 12

Los Angeles @ Indiana

Game 601-602
July 12, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
107.086
Indiana
107.928
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 1
159
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Los Angeles
by 3
155 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indiana
(+3); Over

Minnesota @ Atlanta

Game 603-604
July 12, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
104.357
Atlanta
105.614
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
148
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 2 1/2
150
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+2 1/2); Under

Phoenix @ Connecticut

Game 605-606
July 12, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
107.573
Connecticut
115.007
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Connecticut
by 7 1/2
156
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Connecticut
by 5 1/2
153 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Connecticut
(-5 1/2); Over

New York @ Chicago

Game 607-608
July 12, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New York
107.995
Chicago
105.899
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New York
by 2
165
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 3 1/2
162
Dunkel Pick:
New York
(+3 1/2); Over

Dallas @ Seattle

Game 609-610
July 12, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
107.666
Seattle
109.965
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 2 1/2
151
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 5 1/2
145
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+5 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 07-12-2019, 01:10 PM

PHOENIX MERCURY AT CONNECTICUT SUN (-5.5, 153.5)

The Mercury sent a message through the WNBA with their one-sided road win over the Washington Mystics Wednesday. Phoenix blasted the league’s top team by 23 points, picking up its second straight win and improving to 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in its last six outings.

The Mercury could welcome back hoops legend Diana Taurasi Friday after sitting out the start of the schedule while recovering from back surgery. Taurasi won’t log a ton of minutes in her debut, which is too bad for a Phoenix team playing its fourth game in eight days.

The Mercury don’t have much firepower behind All-Star forward Brittney Griner and DeWanna Bonner (who make up for almost 52 percent of the team’s total offense) and rank dead last in points off the bench, with just 14.4 per game.

The Sun are heading in an opposite direction, losing five in a row heading into Friday. However, four of those five losses came on the road. Connecticut has been terrible from the field during this skid, shooting only 40.6 percent and 35 percent from 3-point range, but did knock down 8 of 20 from beyond the arc in the loss at Atlanta Wednesday.

The Sun return home, where they average 83 points per game, against a tired Mercury team ripe for a letdown and inflated with the return of a limited Taurasi.

PREDICTION: Connecticut -5.5

DALLAS WINGS AT SEATTLE STORM (-5.5, 148)

The Seattle Storm have had their share of bad luck in the first half of the 2019 WNBA season. The team, which started the schedule without stars Sue Bird and Brianna Stewart for the entire year, have seen key role players go down with injuries over the past two months.

While Seattle was frantically treading water throughout this period, the Storm hit their breaking point the past two weeks. They’ve dropped three in row – all at home – heading into Friday’s home stand with the Dallas Wings.

Seattle has been a mess on both ends of the floor, shooting just 40 percent from the field while allowing opponents to connect on almost 44 percent of their takes and average 76.7 points against over those three games. That’s a drastic change from their home defense before that span, in which the Storm gave up only 68.8 points per game through their first five contests inside Alaska Airlines Arena.

Granted, those three recent losses all came in a stretch of six days and with the roster down to nine healthy players. Seattle is expected to return guard Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis Friday after she missed the previous game - a loss to Atlanta on July 5 - and the status of standout guard Jewel Loyd is up in the air.

“We’ve been playing nonstop since the season started,” forward Natasha Howard told the Seattle Times earlier this week. “We all need time to recuperate and recharge.”

Dallas has improved since its slow start to the season but has struggled away from home. The Wings are winless on the road with a 2-4 ATS mark as visitors. The team averages only 66.7 points on 35 percent shooting in opposing gyms and have their own laundry list of injuries growing, heading into Friday.

PREDICTION: Seattle -5.5

Wednesday’s picks: 0-2
Season to date: 34-24

Announcement

Friday's WNBA Trends and Indexes - 7/12

Friday's WNBA Trends and Indexes - 7/12

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