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**Udog** · 05-25-2019, 08:40 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Updated Week 1 odds for the NFL:

— Falcons @ Vikings (-4, 47.5)

— Redskins @ Eagles (-9, 46.5)

— Bills @ Jets (-3.5, 38.5)

— Ravens (-4.5, 37) @ Dolphins

— 49ers @ Buccaneers (-1, 49)

— Chiefs (-3.5, 51.5) @ Jaguars

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Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind…….

13) George Springer leads the American League in homers and RBIs; he bats leadoff. No leadoff hitter has ever led their league in homers or RBI for a full season.

Springer hurt his left leg in Friday night’s game and appears headed to the IL.

12) Fran Fraschilla posted a note on Twitter this week that college basketball coaches spend 30% of their time on actual basketball. NBA coaches spend 99% of their time on basketball, and that is probably the appeal of the NBA to guys like Brad Stevens, Billy Donovan, John Beilein.

11) From 2011-18, when Max Scherzer started a game, his teams went 176-85 in those games.

This season, Washington is 2-9 when Scherzer starts. Go figure.

10) Findlay Prep in Las Vegas, which has won three National High School Invitational basketball championships, isn’t expected to field a team next season. Findlay had a run of 11 consecutive appearances in the national tournament stopped this year- the school is going to look for a new campus and could resume play for the 2020-21 season.

Since starting the program in the 2006-07 season, Findlay is 378-43; they could have three alums taken in the NBA Draft in June.

9) Raiders-Packers might play a preseason game in Winnipeg this summer. Seriously.

8) There are four NFL head coaches who played QB in either the Arena League or the Indoor Football League:
— Jay Gruden: Tampa Bay Storm, Orlando Predators, Nashville Kats
— Matt LaFleur, Omaha Beef, Billings Outlaws

— Matt Nagy: New York Dragons, Carolina Cobras, Georgia Force, Columbus Destroyers
— Sean Payton: Chicago Bruisers, Pittsburgh Gladiators

7) Baseball stuff:
— A’s put DH Khris Davis (oblique) on IL.
— Marlins put C Chad Wallach (concussion) on IL.
— Arizona put OF David Peralta (AC joint) on IL.
— Mets signed Ervin Santana, Matt Kemp to contracts.

6) This week in 1935 in Cincinnati, the first-ever night baseball game was played; there were 20,422 fans there to see the Reds beat the Phillies, 2-1.

5) Kansas Jayhawks get Silvio DeSousa eligible to play this coming basketball season, which is very good news for them.

4) Former Baylor football coach Art Briles is the new coach at Mount Vernon HS in Texas.

3) In case you were wondering, the 2011 Mets went 77-85; they left 1,257 men on base that year, the most of any team in this decade. Six of the top nine teams on this list won 91+ games.

#8 on the list are the 2016 Cubs, who won the World Series that year.

2) Tres Tinkle dropped out of the NBA Draft and will return to Oregon State for his senior year; he is a very good player, but his dad is also the OSU head coach. Beavers finished 10-8 in Pac-12 games last year, their first winning season in conference play this century.

1) Chicago Bears are -4 over Green Bay in Week 1 this season; Bears are getting 59% of the money so far, in wagering at William Hill sportsbooks nationwide; of the 16 Week 1 games, that is the game where the money is most evenly divided.

**Udog** · 05-25-2019, 08:43 AM

**Udog** · 05-25-2019, 08:44 AM

G6 - Bucks at Raptors
Kevin Rogers

Golden State is waiting in the wings to see where it is traveling for Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night. We were destined for a Warriors/Bucks NBA Finals after Milwaukee grabbed the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals against Toronto. However, the Raptors have rebounded to not only climb back into the series, but sit one victory away from their first ever Eastern Conference championship.

After the Bucks captured the first two games at Fiserv Forum, the Raptors needed to stave off Milwaukee in double-overtime of Game 3 just to avoid a 3-0 hole. Following an 18-point rout in Game 4 to even up the series, all of the sudden the Eastern Conference Finals turned into a best-of-three series for the right to end Golden State’s championship run.

Entering Thursday’s contest back in Milwaukee, the last 10 teams tied at 2-2 in the playoffs heading home won 10 consecutive Game 5’s, including a 5-0 mark in 2019. Milwaukee jumped out to a commanding 18-4 advantage in Game 5, as the Bucks have not lost three straight games all season. However, the Raptors rallied back to grab a 38-34 lead in the second quarter before Milwaukee settled for a 49-46 halftime edge.

Milwaukee built a 10-point third quarter lead, but Toronto sliced the deficit to 75-72 heading into the final 12 minutes. The Raptors ripped off 10 consecutive points after trailing 81-79, including eight points from star forward Kawhi Leonard, who finished with 35 points. Toronto held off Milwaukee, 105-99 to hold the Bucks below 100 points for the first time in the series, while the Raptors cashed as 7 ½-point underdogs.

The question after Game 2 was can Leonard’s teammates step up and help carry the scoring load. In Game 4, guard Kyle Lowry responded with 25 points, while Norman Powell (18) and Serge Ibaka (17) each contributed solid numbers off the bench. Another efficient game was put up by Fred VanVleet, who knocked down a trio of three-pointers for 13 points in Game 4, but the former Wichita State standout outdid himself with a 21-point performance in Game 5, including hitting seven shots from downtown.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has put a rough Game 3 (12 points on 5-of-16 shooting) behind him with 24 points in Game 4 and 25 points in Game 5. But, Antetokounmpo failed to reach double-digit rebounds for the first time in the series by grabbing only eight boards in Game 5. Khris Middleton struggled from the floor for the Bucks with only six points on 2-of-9 shooting after posting 30 points in Game 4.

Milwaukee hoisted plenty of three-point attempts in the first two wins (44 in Game 1, 41 in Game 2), but those numbers have dropped recently. The Bucks put up 44 attempts in the Game 3 double-overtime loss, as 40 of those shots came in regulation, while Mike Budenholzer’s team tried 35 three-pointers in Game 4 and 31 in Game 5. The 10 makes in Game 5 were the fewest in the series for Milwaukee, who hit at least 15 three-pointers in three of the four wins in the Boston series.

After watching the ‘over’ cash in three of the first four games in this series, the ‘under’ connected easily in Game 5 as the pair combined for 204 points, which was the lowest production between them through five contests. The total for Game 6 opened as high as 214 on Thursday and the number has dropped to as low as 211 ½ as of Friday.

Chris David offered up his thoughts on Saturday’s total.

He explained, “The ‘total’ pendulum continues to swing back and forth in this series and bettors have already shown their hand for Saturday with a barrage of ‘under’ wagers. Based on what we’ve seen recently from Milwaukee’s offense in this series, you can certainly see why bettors are buying the low side. The Bucks are shooting 42.8 percent from the field and only 30.3 percent from the 3-point land against the Raptors, both well below their season averages (47.3%, 35%). Another factor that played into Game 5’s loss was the free throw battle. Toronto took 31 attempts and made 25, while Milwaukee only earned 18 trips to the stripe and it connected on 13. The Bucks have feasted at the free throw line this season, averaging 23.9 attempts and the number was a tad higher on the road (24.2). If Milwaukee isn’t connecting from distance and it’s not earning freebies, then another Toronto-Under ticket seems likely.”

Even though we’ve seen some solid trends come to an end in this year’s playoffs, like the Bucks incredible record off losses, David believes there are two angles that could have you riding Milwaukee’s offense on Saturday and possibly the ‘over’ in Game 6 too.

“Thursday's 99-point effort in Game 5 was just the seventh time this season that Milwaukee was held under 100 points. Not surprisingly, they went 1-6 in those games and that includes their Game 1 loss (112-90) to Boston in the second round. In the seven games following the low production, the Bucks averaged 116.8 PPG but that number was assisted with a 140-point effort. Defensively, they were more impressive during this span as they only surrendered 104.2 PPG in the same seven games. This Bucks squad can drop crooked numbers on anybody and catching a Team Total of 105 ½ makes me want to go ‘over’ in this elimination spot,” he said.

David added, “As I mentioned before, trends aren’t always your friends but it should be noted that we’ve had five Game 6’s in this year’s playoffs. We saw an average combined score of 226.6 in those games, which helped the ‘over’ easily go 5-0.”

NBA expert Tony Mejia checks in on what has changed for Toronto, “The Raptors have seen their bench go from struggling as the weak link in the 76ers series through the first two games of the Eastern Conference finals to being the reason for their resurgence. With VanVleet and Powell finding the range and Ibaka providing steady play on both ends behind Marc Gasol, head coach Nick Nurse’s rotation has found the right balance and actually swung Game 5 after the starters got off to a slow start.”

“Although all looks lost after their first three-game losing streak of 2019, it’s worth pointing out that the Bucks matched the Warriors with the league’s top road record and dominated games in Detroit and Boston in previous rounds. I expect the team that showed up and fought until double-overtime in Game 3 to show up instead of the overwhelmed version that last took the floor there on Tuesday. Surviving the first quarter will be essential, but I think the Bucks will win the third quarter and would look into a wager on that, likely getting a half-point. I believe we’ll get a game that will come down to the final minutes,” Mejia notes.

The last time the Bucks posted four consecutive non-covers came in late November, as each ATS loss came in the favorite role. Milwaukee has compiled an 8-2 ATS record as a road underdog this season, including a 2-1 ATS mark in the postseason with the lone loss coming in Game 3 to Toronto. Saturday marks the first time in Raptors’ franchise history that they can close out a playoff series in Game 6 at home.

**Udog** · 05-25-2019, 08:48 AM

511Milwaukee -512 Toronto
MILWAUKEE is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite in the current season.

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, May 25

Milwaukee @ Toronto

Game 511-512
May 25, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
130.466
Toronto
127.388
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 3
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 2 1/2
213
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(+2 1/2); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 25

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MILWAUKEE (70 - 26) at TORONTO (69 - 30) - 5/25/2019, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 159-201 ATS (-62.1 Units) on Saturday games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 57-36 ATS (+17.4 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 28-17 ATS (+9.3 Units) in road games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 144-106 ATS (+27.4 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 151-112 ATS (+27.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 29-20 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 46-29 ATS (+14.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 27-18 ATS (+7.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
TORONTO is 214-269 ATS (-81.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 11-11 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 13-9 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
11 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, May 25

Toronto won/covered last three series games, after falling behind 2-0 in series; they can move on to NBA Finals for first time with win here. VanVleet scored 21 points in 37:00 off bench in last game; Raptors were +28 with VanVleet on the floor, -22 when he was off floor. Bucks had won six games in a row before losing last three games; they won/covered three of last five visits to Canada, but their bench was -54 in the Game 5 loss. Three of last four series games went over total. Toronto was 18-43 on arc in Game 5, only 13-41 inside the arc.

NBA

Saturday, May 25

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Trend Report
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Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
Milwaukee is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Milwaukee's last 21 games
Milwaukee is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Milwaukee is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 12 games when playing Toronto
Milwaukee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Milwaukee is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Toronto's last 18 games
Toronto is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Toronto's last 12 games when playing Milwaukee
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Toronto is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 8 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

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Announcement

Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/25

Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/25

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