Announcement

**Udog** · 05-23-2019, 09:13 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Odds to win the NASCAR race in Charlotte Sunday night:

3-1— Kyle Busch

9-2— Kevin Harvick

6-1— Martin Truex

7-1— Brad Keselowski

8-1— Joey Logano, Chase Elliott

14-1— Clint Bowyer

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) Michigan hired Juwan Howard as its new basketball coach; Howard had been as assistant with the Miami Heat and of course is a Michigan alum, playing in the Fab Five era.

12) Giancarlo Stanton looks like an NFL tight end, but good grief, he gets hurt a lot.

First, a biceps strain; rehab from that led to a shoulder issue. Then, in his first rehab game in Florida, he strains a calf muscle trying to avoid a pitch in a Class A game, so now he’s been shut down another 7-10 days. Oy.

Stanton has been on my fantasy team since since he was an 18-year old in the Florida State League, so I’ve been down this road before:
— Missed 39 games in 2012
— Missed 46 games in 2013
— Missed 88 games in 2015
— Missed 43 games in 2016
— Missed 45 games already this season.

Guy gets paid $30M a year; would be nice if he played more.

11) Monday is Stanton Bobblehead Day in the Bronx; that should go over well.

10) Race for the two Wild Cards in the AL:
— Tampa Bay 27-18
— Boston 25-23
— Cleveland 25-23
— Texas 24-23
— Oakland 25-25
— LA Angels 22-26

9) Gleyber Torres has 12 homers this year; ten of them were against Baltimore.

8) Iowa passed a sports betting bill this week; their goal is to begin taking wagers around August 10th.

7) Baseball stuff:
— Cleveland DFA’d OF Carlos Gonzalez.
— Rockies put P Wade Davis (oblique) on IL.
— Angels put C Kevan Smith on 7-day concussion IL.

6) St Louis Blues came into the NHL in the fall of 1967, and made the Stanley Cup finals their first three years in the NHL, going 0-12 in those finals. This will be the first time since then that they’re back in the finals, playing the same Bruins’ squad they lost to in 1970.

5) Colonial Country Club is hosting a PGA Tour event this week for the 72nd consecutive year, the second-longest streak behind Augusta National.

4) Vanderbilt hired Faragi Phillips as an assistant basketball coach; he went 105-31 in four years as a head coach at the high school level in Memphis, winning two state titles. Memphis is a very fertile recruiting ground in basketball.

3) Future NFL Draft sites: 2021: Cleveland, 2023: Kansas City. No word on 2022.

NFL Combine is staying in Indianapolis for at least the next couple years.

2) A’s 7, Indians 2— Oakland won its last six games, is back at .500 (25-25).

1) Robinson Cano actually ran out a ground ball last night, so of course he leaves the game right after with a strained quad muscle.

**Udog** · 05-23-2019, 09:17 AM

**Udog** · 05-23-2019, 09:21 AM

507Toronto -508 Milwaukee
MILWAUKEE is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) off an upset loss as a road favorite in the current season.

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, May 23

Toronto @ Milwaukee

Game 507-508
May 23, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
130.156
Milwaukee
127.699
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 2 1/2
214
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 7
217
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(+7); Under

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, May 23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (68 - 30) at MILWAUKEE (70 - 25) - 5/23/2019, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 213-269 ATS (-82.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 57-35 ATS (+18.5 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 48-31 ATS (+13.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 29-18 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.
MILWAUKEE is 26-16 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 47-30 ATS (+14.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 29-19 ATS (+8.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 27-17 ATS (+8.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 11-10 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 12-9 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
11 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, May 23

Home side won all four series games; Raptors are 2-3 in last five visits to Milwaukee- over is 7-3 in last ten series games. Toronto’s bench outscored the Bucks’ subs 48-23 in Game 4, allowing Leonard to do less, which is good. Powell/VanVleet/Ibaka were combined +78 in 81:37. Now the question is, can Raptors do it on road? Toronto lost four of last five road games (under 3-2). Milwaukee won/covered its last four home games, winning by average of 19 points. Underdogs covered eight of last 11 series games.

NBA

Thursday, May 23

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Toronto is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 8 games on the road
Toronto is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
Toronto is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Toronto's last 11 games when playing Milwaukee
Toronto is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
Milwaukee is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Milwaukee's last 20 games
Milwaukee is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Toronto
Milwaukee is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 11 games when playing Toronto
Milwaukee is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 05-23-2019, 10:04 AM

G5 - Raptors at Bucks
Tony Mejia

Eastern Conference Finals – Game 5 -- Series tied 2-2

No. 2 Toronto at No. 1 Milwaukee (-7/216.5), TNT, 8:30 p.m. ET

May 21 – Raptors (+3, +135) 120 vs. Bucks 102 (Over 217.5)
May 19 – Raptors (-2) 118 vs. Bucks 112, 2OT (Over 221.5)
May 17 – Bucks (-6.5) 125 vs. Raptors 103 (Over 219)
May 15 – Bucks (-6.5) 108 vs. Raptors 100 (Under 218)

Jan. 31 – Bucks (+2.5) 105 at Raptors 92 (Under 232)
Jan. 5 – Raptors (+5.5) 123 at Bucks 116 (Over 227)
Dec. 9 – Bucks (+5) 104 at Raptors 99 (Under 229.5)
Oct. 29 – Bucks (+2) 124 vs. Raptors 109 (Over 222.5)

It wasn’t all that stunning that the Raptors got even at home against the Bucks on Tuesday night.

Toronto was one of the NBA’s top home teams, finishing in a tie for third with its 32-9 mark in its gym. Although both the Magic and 76ers got a game up at ScotiaBank Arena, each team saw their season end there. Game 3 saw the Bucks fight gamely, but ultimately fall short in double-overtime as their inconsistent shooting finally proved too much to overcome.

The surprising part about the Eastern Conference finals entering a Game 5 at 2-2 revolves around how Toronto managed to notch things up, putting together its most complete effort of these playoffs in securing a 120-102 result on a night where star forward Kawhi Leonard was off his game, visibly hampered by a nagging quad injury.

Everyone from the assistant trainer to the PA announcer to super fan Drake stepped up.

Kyle Lowry finished with a team-high 25 points, his second-largest output of this postseason, setting the tone early by attacking. Marc Gasol had a team-high seven assists, finishing with 17 points and knocking down three 3-pointers. Serge Ibaka relieved him and delivered 17 points and 13 rebounds in 24 minutes, while Norman Powell came in and ultimately fired up 13 shots from beyond the arc, knocking down four and often finding himself on the business end of a wide-open look as the Raptors manipulated Milwaukee’s defense with their ball movement.

Backup point guard Fred VanVleet hit five of six shots after entering Tuesday’s game 4-for-20 in the series, which was an improvement on shooting 12.9 percent in the 76ers series.

Toronto looked capable of winning a championship in Game 4, showing off its skill, length and depth.

Whether it can sustain that excellence remains to be seen, especially since the Eastern Conference finals shift back to Milwaukee, where the Bucks have only lost once in these playoffs and posted the top home record (33-8) in the East, finishing only behind Denver (34-7) in the entire NBA.

Depth was expected to be a major asset for the Raptors, but then the playoffs arrive and VanVleet and Ibaka went into a shell. Powell has been hit-or-miss and Nick Nurse has committed to solely using an eight-man rotation, so that perceived edge went out the window. No one who watched Toronto overcome Philadelphia’s talent would doubt the Magic of Leonard, but he’s clearly not 100 percent after aggravating a leg injury in the first half of Game 3. Considering he’s averaging 38.4 minutes per playoff game and has logged the fourth-most miles per game this postseason, per Second Spectrum, it’s unlikely he’ll be even 75 percent again in this series given the venue changes going forward before an Eastern Conference champion is decided.

Despite dominating the Bucks on Tuesday, the line opened with Milwaukee as a 6.5-to-7-point favorite. VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers points out that this critical swing game in a series has historically been a rough one for teams coming out of the visiting locker room, particularly this season.

“Backing the home team in Game 5 of the playoffs with the series tied at 2-2 has been money in the bank in 2019. Home squads in this situation are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this postseason,” Rogers said. “The Warriors failing to cash as six-point favorites in a five-point win over the Rockets in the second round is the lone non-cover. Dating back to the start of the 2018 playoffs, home teams have won 10 straight Game 5’s with a series tied at 2-2, including five victories by 10 points or more.”

Milwaukee led the league in point differential this season and have managed to cover all 10 times it has walked off the floor a winner in these playoffs, but we’re about to find out whether it has the mental fortitude to overcome adversity. If you believe the Bucks have the talent to dethrone the Warriors, you’re going to need to see how they respond to their first losing streak since March 4. This is only the second time they’ve dropped consecutive games this season and they didn’t lose a third in a row, rebounding to blow out the Pacers at home.

After being the lone team to post 60 victories this season and largely coasting through these playoffs prior to Sunday’s loss, the Bucks are going to be confronted with some tough questions about Giannis Antetokounmpo’s ability to lead a team and adjust to being the focal point of an opposing defense that has been designed to take the ball out of his hands and keep him from getting comfortable. Milwaukee led the NBA in offensive and defensive efficiency this season. In the playoffs, their offensive efficiency prior to going to Toronto was at 113.5, while their defensive efficiency was 98.4 for a league-best differential of +15.1.

In their losses to the Raptors, their offensive efficiency registered at 99.1, while their defensive number came in at 110.2. The Bucks looked like a shell of themselves. Will getting back home change matters the way it did for Toronto? Will we continue to see the Raps figure things out on the offensive end after their second and third-largest scoring output of the postseason?

The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series and Thursday’s total opened as high as 219 but is now sitting at 216.5 as of Thursday morning. VegasInsider.com totals expert Chris David offered up his thoughts on the number for Game 5.

“I was very surprised that Toronto put up 120 points in Game 4 after coming off a double-overtime victory in Game 3. The Raptors have always been a tough out at home and their ability to avoid the fatigue factor in this series against a deeper team was very impressive. The question I have now is how much gas does Toronto have left in its tank? The oddsmakers aren’t expecting the offense to travel, listing their Team Total at 105 ½ for Game 5 and based on what we’ve seen, you have to agree with them. The Raptors are averaging 100.1 PPG in seven road playoff games this season, and their highest output was 107 in Game 4 at Orlando in the first round,” said David. “If you’re handicapping is going to stick with the home-away tendencies, then I would put more trust in the Bucks offense.

“Milwaukee has averaged 114.7 PPG at the Fiserv Forum in seven games and despite that production, the ‘under’ has gone 4-3 but that’s because the Bucks defense (99 PPG) has been great in those games. Their Team Total is 112 ½ for Game 5 and a close game could certainly keep that number in check. However, this club hasn’t dropped three consecutive losses all season and the one time they did lose two in a row, they rebounded with a clinical 117-98 win at home. I believe Thursday’s outcome will be in the same neighborhood.” If you’re interested on getting in on an exact series price:

7 Games Bucks Win +135
6 Games Bucks Win +175
6 Games Raptors Win +450
7 Games Raptors Win +500

If you’re looking for an x-factor, Bucks point guard Eric Bledsoe may be worth targeting in props since the bar is so low due to his brutal play thus far. The length of Pascal Siakam, who is playing off him and conceding the 3-pointer, has played a major role in keeping him from even getting started. Bledsoe, a borderline All-Star this season, has been terrible in the series, shooting 24 percent from the field and averaging 8.3 points after scoring 16 per game over the first two rounds. He shot 12-for-43 from beyond the arc against the Pistons and Celtics but is just 2-for-19 against the Raptors.

Malcolm Brogdon’s return gave Mike Budenholzer another option alongside George Hill, who has been surprisingly steady in these playoffs, but he shot just 2-for-11 in Game 4. Perhaps getting back home to Fiserv Forum will be the remedy for him as well. Shooters Khris Middleton, Nikola Mirotic, Brook Lopez and Ersan Ilyasova are all capable of making Toronto pay for the extra attention they’re paying to Antetokounmpo, but most of them struggled in Toronto and must rediscover their stroke before they’re put in the first must-win situation of this postseason.

From that standpoint, the Raptors have the edge in experience, having already survived an elimination game against the 76ers, who they also won Game 5 against when that series was tied 2-2. Although Toronto has famously never reached an NBA Finals in franchise history, its leader is a champion.

How effective will Leonard be after another flight and another stretch of steady treatment? Can he continue to make big shots and be a steady force for the Raps’ halfcourt offense? Will he still be able to physically hang with the “Greek Freak,” making him work for everything?

The books are making it awfully easy to back Toronto if you believe Leonard can hold up physically, yet two-thirds of the early public money has come in on the favored Bucks.

Announcement

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/23

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/23

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment