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**Udog** · 05-09-2019, 08:34 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

— Indians are 14-7 outside their division, but only 5-9 vs AL Central rivals.

— Warriors 104, Rockets 99— Kevin Durant strained a calf muscle, will probably miss Game 6.

— Bucks 116, Celtics 91— Milwaukee is in Final Four for first time since 2001.

— Hey, sports betting is legal in Indiana now. It isn’t legal yet here in New York.

— UConn, Louisville, Indiana, and Texas Tech will be the four teams at the 2019 Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden in December.

— NBA teams that win Game 5 of a playoff series with a 2-2-1-1-1 format have won that series 162 of 189 times (85.7%).

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) Kawhi Leonard has played in all ten of Toronto’s playoff games this spring, playing 36.6 minutes a game; no nights off for “load management” He has been great.

During the regular season, Leonard sat out 22 games, played 34 mpg when he did play; is this a hint of things to come? Stars taking periodical days off to reduce the stress of a long season?

Steve Kerr suggested the regular season be cut back from 82 to 75 games, for that reason. As long as the players’ salaries get reduced by the same %age as the games are reduced, I’d be OK with it.

Taking games off when you’re not hurt is BS— people might be spending lot of money to take their kids to see a guy play, and then he doesn’t, for no reason. It is bad business.

12) Texas Rangers’ DH Joey Gallo is first big leaguer ever to hit 100 home runs before he hit 100 singles; he hit his 100th homer Wednesday afternoon in Pittsburgh.

11) From Baylor’s Twitter account:

“Baylor Athletics is thrilled to announce a lead gift for the Baylor Basketball Pavilion. This new facility will be made possible thanks to recently publicized $100 million anonymous gift as a part of Baylor University’s Give Light Campaign.”

Someone gave Baylor $100M; 100 million freakin’ dollars. Wow.

10) One of the funny things about watching baseball on TV every night is when a team is doing badly, their TV guys quickly transition to other stuff, like the local team’s NBA/NHL playoff games, or the team’s concessions stands, or the bobblehead giveaway next week, or next month.

Can’t be easy for these guys when a team sucks or is struggling; they travel with the team, with social media nowadays, any criticism they say on air gets back to the players quickly, but the job is to tell the truth, too. Delicate balance that some do way better than others.

9) “If I ain’t starting, then I’ll be departing….”

Matthew Baldwin could’t beat Justin Fields out for the QB job at Ohio State, so he is gone to TCU, where he will sit out this season, meaning he will have sat out for two years in a row after he started for only one year in high school in Lake Travis, TX.

8) We talked yesterday about CBSSports.com‘s ranking the power 5 college football coaches; they listed #1-25 Wednesday, with Washington’s Chris Petersen #3, behind Saban/Swinney. Lincoln Riley was #4, Jimbo Fisher #5.

7) They somehow list Duke’s David Cutcliffe at #21; if Cutcliffe is such a great coach, how come he can’t recruit competent WR’s? All I heard in the New York media during/after the draft was how terrible Duke’s WR’s were. Shouldn’t the #21 coach in the country be able to coach ‘em up better than they’ve been?

6) College basketball transfer portal:
— DJ Harvey bolts from Notre Dame to Vanderbilt.
— Vermont lands grad transfer Daniel Giddens from Alabama.

5) Florida Gators inked a home/home football series with Colorado; Buffs will visit Gainesville in 2028, the Gators will visit Boulder in 2029. What is interesting about this? It will be the first time Florida has left the Sunshine State for a true non-conference road game (non-bowl game) since losing at Syracuse in 1991.

4) Paul George had rotator cuff surgery since Oklahoma City was eliminated from the NBA playoffs, is going to have another operation on the other shoulder, and is expected to miss at least part of training camp next fall.

3) Toronto’s Trent Thornton used to be on my fantasy team; he was cut during his horrendous start last night against the Twins.
His four starts when he was in my lineup: 0-3, 9.00 ERA, 2.13 WHIP
His four starts when he was on my bench: 0-1, 2.42 ERA, 0.85 WHIP
Enough already.

2) Mike Fiers has started 162 major league games; he finished two of them, both of them no-hitters, throwing 134-131 pitches. Hell of a performance late Tuesday night.

1) Doug Kern came up with some great no-hitter knowledge:

Mike Fiers: First pitcher to throw his second no-hitter since Jake Arrieta 2015-16.

Fiers’ second one was against the Reds.
Arrieta’s second one was against the Reds.

Final out of Fiers’ second one: Eugenio Suarez.
Final out of Arrieta’s second one: Eugenio Suarez.

**Udog** · 05-09-2019, 08:39 AM

**Udog** · 05-09-2019, 08:47 AM

513Toronto -514 Philadelphia
PHILADELPHIA is 46-25 ATS (18.5 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.

515Denver -516 Portland
PORTLAND is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more in the current season.

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, May 9

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TORONTO (65 - 27) at PHILADELPHIA (57 - 35) - 5/9/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 211-265 ATS (-80.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 146-119 ATS (+15.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 54-37 ATS (+13.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) after a division game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 80-59 ATS (+15.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 48-32 ATS (+12.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 81-59 ATS (+16.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 48-28 ATS (+17.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 11-6 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 12-5 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (61 - 33) at PORTLAND (59 - 33) - 5/9/2019, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 94-77 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 32-23 ATS (+6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
PORTLAND is 49-36 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 48-32 ATS (+12.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) vs. division opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 11-5 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 10-7 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
12 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, May 9

76ers have been held to 96 or fewer points in four of five series games; they won by 21 the one big game Embiid had (9-18 in Game 3, 14-42 in other four games combined). Simmons was 3-5 from floor in Game 5; he is taking only 8.4 shots/game in series, has been to foul line total of four times- they need lot more from him than that. Toronto crushed the 76ers by 36 Tuesday, can end series with road win here; Raptors are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits here. Key for the Raptors is how much support Leonard gets; he’s been playing great. Five of last six series games stayed under the total. Home side won eight of last 11 series games.

Denver won last two games since losing 4-OT game in Game 3 in Portland; they can close series out with win here. Nuggets won nine of last 12 games with Portland, covered last four visits to Oregon. Eight of last nine series games went over. Home side won eight of last 11 series games. Jokic has 79 points, 49 rebounds, 31 assists in his last three games. Under is 4-2 in Blazers’ last six wins; four of their last five losses went over. Lillard/McCollum shot combined 14-37 in Game 5; they’ll need big game here to force Game 7. Portland coach Stotts is 15-33-2 vs spread in playoff games.

NBA

Thursday, May 9

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Trend Report
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Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Toronto is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Toronto's last 11 games
Toronto is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Philadelphia is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Toronto

Denver Nuggets
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Portland
Denver is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 9 games when playing Portland
Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
Denver is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Portland is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games
Portland is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Portland's last 21 games at home
Portland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver
Portland is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Portland's last 9 games when playing Denver
Portland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Portland is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver

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**Udog** · 05-09-2019, 09:14 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, May 9

Toronto @ Philadelphia

Game 513-514
May 9, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
125.688
Philadelphia
127.880
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 2
202
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 2
213
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+2); Under

Denver @ Portland

Game 515-516
May 9, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
125.691
Portland
119.109
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 6 1/2
229
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 4
215 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+4); Over

**Udog** · 05-09-2019, 12:18 PM

Thursday's Playoff Essentials
Tony Mejia

Eastern Conference Semifinals – Game 6 -- Raptors lead 3-2

No. 2 Toronto (-2/213) at No. 3 Philadelphia, ESPN, 8:05 p.m. ET

May 7 – Raptors (-6) 125 vs. 76ers 89 (Over 212.5)
May 5 – Raptors (+2) 101 at 76ers 96 (Under 216)
May 2 – 76ers (+1.5) 116 vs. Raptors 95 (Under 216.5)
April 29 – 76ers (+7.5) 97 at Raptors 89 (Under 220)
April 27 – Raptors (-6.5) 108 vs. 76ers 95 (Under 223)

April 27 - Raptors (-6.5) 108 vs. 76ers 95 (Under 227)

Feb. 5 - Raptors (+2.5) 119 at 76ers 107 (Under 231)
Dec. 22 – 76ers (-7.5) 126 vs. Raptors 101 (Over 222.5)
Dec. 5 - Raptors (-6.5) 113 vs. 76ers 102 (Under 229)
Oct. 30 - Raptors (-6) 129 vs. 76ers 112 (Over 227.5)

The 76ers entered this postseason as a popular choice to stun everyone and win the Eastern Conference.

They’re one loss away from coming out of it with everyone’s star shining a little dimmer.

Joel Embiid hasn’t been himself since before the All-Star break but has shown flashes of the game-breaking brilliance he put on display before his knee issues intensified to have Philadelphia up 2-1 in this very series. Then he fell ill. Unlucky, but unfortunately, the game stops for no one. He’s looked like a shell of himself over the past few games and his team has suffered.

Ben Simmons, who you would expect to step up to help make Embiid’s burden easier, has instead regressed. He’s taken a backseat to Jimmy Butler and is incredibly averaging 9.4 points and 4.6 assists in the series. Butler, who may leave for L.A. as a free agent this summer, has emerged as the leader Simmons is supposed to be and at this stage in their careers, is better-suited for the role.

Tobias Harris and J.J. Redick haven’t gotten off in the same game once in this series, which has been a major factor in the offense bogging down as often as it has. Redicks missed five of six looks in Game 5 and ended up a minus-21 for the game. James Ennis came off the bench to miss all four of his shots in 23 minutes and wound up a minus-30.

The Raptors imposed their will on Tuesday night thanks to a 20-point second-quarter advantage, holding Philadelphia to 6-for-24 from 3-point range for the game. The Sixers couldn’t have played worse, so if you’re into the bounce-back factor, getting back home and seeing a few shots drop early could get them going as they look to avoid elimination. Because of Simmons shrinking and Embiid looking drained, Brett Brown has ridden Butler as his catalyst, so ball movement has suffered. They’ve got to get back to sharing the ball and creating open looks for one another, but you have to wonder whether that’s going to be possible with the Raptors as locked in as they’ve been.

The Raptors have been locked in on the defensive end since falling behind in the series and have seen Pascal Siakam impressively make a huge difference despite being at less than 100 percent due to a calf shooting the ball poorly from beyond the arc. A more complete effort helped take some of the pressure off Kawhi Leonard, who has made a strong case for being the NBA’s best player in this series. With Danny Green knocking down five of seven 3-point shots, Toronto crushed the 76ers, handing them their worst playoff loss since the 1982 Finals.

Coming back from that starts with Embiid, who is getting no sympathy despite his plight. Charles Barkley eloquently captured the general consensus of his impact on the 76ers since dominating Game 3, commenting that “he walks around like he’s on his death bed. He drains the energy out of the team.” He should be in better condition for this first elimination game that Philadelphia has come up against this season. Last year’s team went 1-1 when facing the end of their season, avoiding a sweep in the conference semifinals against the Celtics with a 103-92 home win before being eliminated in Boston last May 9.

You might remember how that game ended, with Embiid missing a pair of shots right around the basket late before being stripped by Terry Rozier, who knocked the ball of his leg. Boston held on 114-112.

The top scorer in both of those elimination games was Dario Saric, which may say something about Embiid and Simmons, who had chances to extend that series and fell to the Kyrie Irving-less Celtics 4-1. Embiid said last season that the next step in the “process” after finally reaching the playoffs last season was to make the conference finals. The 76ers are in danger of failing to attain their season goal.

Saric was dealt away in the Butler deal, which might end up being a rental if he bolts for L.A. It will be interesting to see how this version of the 76ers handles the desperation of a close-out game, especially with guys who have plenty of experience putting teams away on the other side. Kyle Lowry, Siakam and Serge Ibaka have done their share of winning over the past few seasons, while first-year Raptors Leonard, Green and Marc Gasol have been in this situation a bunch over their careers.

NBA expert Kevin Rogers spotted a trend that may have you riding a low-scoring affair.

“The Raptors have played in five road Game 6’s since the 2014 playoffs and there is one common thread through those contests,” Rogers said. “Toronto has scored 92 points or fewer in four of those games, while all five have finished ‘under’ the total. However, the Raptors have advanced in each of the last two seasons when leading a series, 3-2 on the road by beating Milwaukee in the 2017 first round and eliminating Washington in the 2018 opening round.”

If Embiid is in better spirits and the 76ers don’t fumble away the ball early, they’ve got a shot at a return trip to Toronto, which the 7-footer promised rapper Drake would happen as he left the floor for the final time on Tuesday night. No one is feeling much empathy for Embiid since he was so demonstrative during his dominant Game 3 effort and continues to keep up the bravado despite not backing his words up on the floor. He and Simmons had combined for more turnovers (12) than buckets (8) through the first three quarters of Game 5, part of a collective meltdown from a team now looking to prove it has indeed made strides despite the moment currently looking too big for their young stars.

Philadelphia won Game 3 as a 1.5-point home underdog, posting their first victory in that role after going 0-2 straight up during the regular-season (1-1 ATS) in games against the visiting Warriors and Bucks. Including the results from this series, Toronto has seen the ‘under’ go 8-2 in the postseason while Philadelphia is 7-3 to the low side.

Western Conference Semifinals – Game 6 -- Nuggets lead 3-2

No. 2 Denver at No. 3 Portland (-4/215.5), ESPN, 10:35 p.m. ET

May 7 – Nuggets (-5) 124 vs. Blazers 98 (Over 213)
May 5 – Nuggets (+3) 116 at Blazers 112 (Over 211)
May 3 – Blazers (-5) 140 vs. Nuggets 137 (Over 215)
May 1 – Blazers (+4) 97 at Nuggets 90 (Under 219.5)
April 29 – Nuggets (-4) 121 vs. Blazers 113 (Over 215.5)

April 7 – Blazers (-8.5) 115 vs. Nuggets 108 (Under 219.5)
April 5 – Nuggets (-6) 119 vs. Blazers 110 (Over 216)
Jan. 13 – Nuggets (-4.5) 116 vs. Blazers 113 (Over 217)
Nov. 30 – Nuggets (+1.5) 113 at Blazers 112 (Over 214)

It’s hard to believe the Trail Blazers could see their season end at home given all they’ve accomplished there just this postseason, having owned the Thunder and pulled off a four-overtime win in this very series. Their last result at Moda Center helped fumble back homecourt advantage to Denver, which is now poised to make its first conference finals appearance since 2009. It would be just the Nuggets’ third trip since they arrived from the ABA in the late 1970’s and their first since 1985.

Damian Lillard has to find the range from beyond the arc to prevent the visitors from celebrating on his home floor. Lillard has shot under 40 percent over the past four games after a Game 1 effort that saw him score 39 points. He finished 4-for-12 from 3-point range in that opener, which has actually been his most effective shooting game from beyond in the arc in this series.

Lillard is shooting 33-for-84 since the opener, which includes a 7-for-30 (23.3 percent) showing from 3-point range. Despite this, he didn’t rule out a 50-point game when asked about the possibility the other night, responding “with our season on the line and knowing we’ve got to have two games in a row, you never know.”

Teammate CJ McCollum has been terrific for most of the series but shot just 5-for-16, while the steady Al-Farouq Aminu missed seven of eight. Enes Kanter has been dealing with a shoulder issue suffered against the Thunder but has played through it and had been a major factor in at least making Denver All-Star center Nikola Jokic work, but he’s worn down over the last few contests, averaging just six points over the last two games. It will be interesting to see if Terry Stotts goes small at home if Kanter can’t get it going, especially since Game 5 saw them get so thoroughly dominated in the paint, where they were outscored 66-44 and outrebounded 62-44.

Jokic is making that “Big Honey” nickname stick with his fabulous work in the series, averaging 26.4 points, 14.6 rebounds and 8.8 assists in the series. With Jamal Murray looking healthier after suffering an ankle injury and the two guys with the most playoff experience on the team, Paul Millsap and Will Barton, really stepping up, Denver has really imposed their will against the Blazers and never trailed in Game 5, winning every quarter until the fourth when the outcome had already been decided.

The Nuggets opened the series as a slight favorite (-145) over the Trail Blazers (+125) according to Westgate, but now would be the time to go all-in on the Blazers if you believe they’ve got a comeback in them since their series price is up at 3-to-1.

Lillard played in all four regular-season meetings against Denver, averaging 21.3 points but shooting just 37 percent from the field and 28.6 from 3-point range. He’s got to find a way to get going early and go on one of those scoring flurries that swung the Thunder series in Portland’s direction. Lillard shot 40 percent from 3-point range at home as opposed to 34 percent on the road during the regular season and despite scoring roughly the same amount of points per game, so if he’s going to snap out of his slump, tonight figures to be the night.

Portland has dropped 10 of 13 against Denver dating back to last season. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the series and is 8-3 in the last 11 playoff games involving Denver. The high side is on a 5-1 run in Blazers’ games.

The total for Game 6 opened at 215 and that number has held steady as of Thursday morning. Totals expert Chris David weighs in on tonight’s matchup.

“Of the four conference semifinal matchups, this has been the best ‘over’ series among them as the high side has gone 4-1 in the first five games. The books have tinkered with the totals a little bit and Thursday’s number is up a couple points from both Game 4 (211) and 5 (213),” said David. “During the regular season, Denver watched the ‘under’ go 25-16 (61%) away from home but that trend has been tossed out the window in the playoffs. The ‘over’ has connected in all five road games for the Nuggets and we’ve seen an average combined score of 234.8 points per game. That number was certainly helped with the 140-137 overtime matchup in Game 3 of this series, but even if you take out that result, you’re looking at 224.3 PPG average.

“Knowing the Nuggets haven’t won a playoff series on the road since 1994, it could have you hesitating to back the visitor here. And, if you’re leaning Portland than you’re expecting an offensive surge especially after being held to 98 in Game 5. My lean would be to the latter and I believe the Trail Blazers Team Total (109 ½) is a solid look.”

Announcement

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/9

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/9

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