Announcement

**Udog** · 05-08-2019, 08:57 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Odds for the Byron Nelson golf tournament this week:

13-2— Brooks Koepka

16-1— Hideki Matsuyama

18-1— Jordan Spieth

20-1— Aaron Wise, Henrik Stenson

25-1— Marc Leishman

30-1— Patrick Reed, Keith Mitchell, Branden Grace

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings……

13) PJ Tucker plays for the Rockets; he is 34 now. He is an important player for them, but only scored 7.3 ppg this season, shooting 37.7% on arc. He started every game, playing 34.2 mpg.

Winning teams have role players who flourish in that role; Tucker makes $8M a year, so he is obviously well compensated for that role.

For five years, from 2007-13, Tucker played pro ball in Israel, Ukraine, Germany and Italy. This is a guy who has paid his dues and probably could write a hell of a book.

12) When Jacob deGrom was playing shortstop in college for Stetson, he hit one home run; off of Chris Sale, who pitched for Florida Gulf Coast.

11) Quote of the Day, part II, from Kyrie Irving after shooting 7-22 in Monday’s loss:

“For me, I had 22 shots, I should’ve shot 30 … just the consistency of going at it, staying aggressive is always going to put us in a great position……”

10) Best over teams in baseball:
— Mariners 25-10-2, +13.57 units
— With Sox 19-12-2, +6.59
— Royals 21-14-1, +6.23
— Rangers 19-12-1, +5.04
— Cubs 19-13, +5.04

Best under teams:
— Reds 23-11-1, +10.69 units
— Blue Jays 21-14, +5.92
— Brewers 21-15-1, +5.22
— Tigers 18-13, +4.34
— Rays 19-14-1, +4.17

9) There are 65 Power Five college football teams; CBSSports.com ranked them #1-65 this week, with Rutgers coach Chris Ash #65, Colorado coach Mel Tucker #64. Tucker was interim coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2011, but hasn’t coached a game in Boulder yet.

I’m assuming Nick Saban is #1 and Dabo Swinney #2, but they haven’t released their top 25 yet. Thats sportswriting in May; stretch things out as much as possible.

Herm Edwards is ranked #54, which is interesting; the guy went 54-74 in the NFL. Lasting eight years as an NFL head coach should get him higher than #54 on the college list.

8) This will be the first time since 1996 that the Kentucky Derby winner won’t be running in the Preakness; Grindstone won the ’96 Derby, then never raced again because of injury.

7) Over last two years, San Diego’s Hunter Renfroe has pinch-hit with bases loaded three times; he has nine RBI in those AB’s, with two of the three hits walk-offs.

6) When Maximum Security was DQ’d at the Kentucky Derby Saturday, a woman from Ohio lost out on a $186,000 prize she would’ve won via a promotion through Rocket Mortgage.

5) Georgia Bulldogs have five top 100 recruits coming to Athens in the fall, so they figure to be a vastly improved team next season.

4) Start of Monday’s Giants-Reds game was delayed 18 minutes because of a swarm of bees that gathered near the seats behind home plate.

Giants-Reds split the four-game series, despite Cincinnati outscoring the Giants 24-2 in the first three innings of the four games.

3) College basketball transfer portal:
— James Bolden jumps from West Virginia to Alabama.
— Nevada poached Desmond Cambridge (15.7 ppg) from Brown.
— Marquette poached grad transfer Jayce Johnson (7.1 ppg) from Utah.

2) Get well soon to Mets’ broadcaster/former pitcher Ron Darling, who was diagnosed with treatable thyroid cancer recently. He is expected to return to TV sometime next month.

1) A’s 2, Reds 0— Mike Fiers threw a 131-pitch no-hitter as Oakland gets a much-needed win, coming off a 1-8 road trip. Fiers also threw a no-hitter for Houston four years ago.

Start of the game was delayed 1:45 by a lighting problem in LF.

51 years ago tonight, May 8, 1968, Catfish Hunter threw a perfect game for the A’s against Minnesota; he also knocked in three of the A’s runs in their 4-0 win.

**Udog** · 05-08-2019, 08:58 AM

**Udog** · 05-08-2019, 08:58 AM

Wednesday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Eastern Conference Semifinals – Game 5 (Bucks lead 3-1)

Boston at Milwaukee (TNT, 8:05 p.m. ET)

Things change quickly in a playoff series for better or worse. Boston stuck it to Milwaukee in Game 1 in a 22-point blowout at Fiserv Forum, but the Celtics have gone from flying high to one loss away from elimination in a 10-day span.

Milwaukee captured a pair of victories at TD Garden, where the Celtics lost a total of one playoff game last season. After the Bucks topped the Celtics in Game 3 as two-point underdogs, 123-116, Milwaukee rallied Boston to take Game 4 in Beantown, 113-101 as one-point ‘dogs. The key to both road wins in this series is Milwaukee’s ability to thrive after halftime by outscoring Boston, 33-23 in the third quarter of Game 4.

Giannis Antetokounmpo dominated the Celtics once again with 39 points and 16 rebounds, while Milwaukee overcame a horrific shooting night from three-point range going 8-of-37. Khris Middleton put together a 4-of-19 performance from the floor after scoring 20 points in Game 3, but George Hill stepped up off the Bucks’ bench to score in double-digits for the third time in this series with 15 points.

Kyrie Irving’s struggles from the floor continued in Game 4 as the Celtics’ guard scored 23 points, but shot 7-of-22, including hitting 1-of-7 three-point attempts. In the three Boston losses, Irving has converted 4-of-20 shots from downtown, while converting on 19-of-62 field goal attempts (30.6%). Gordon Hayward has been missing in action recently for Boston by scoring 10 points or fewer in each of the past three games, including a measly two points in Game 4.

Milwaukee improved to 7-1 SU/ATS in the playoffs following Monday’s win, while owning a solid 9-2 ATS mark in the underdog role. The Bucks are flipped to a home favorite on Wednesday, as Mike Budenholzer’s team is 9-1-1 ATS in the past 11 wins at Fiserv Forum. The Celtics are listed at their highest underdog price this season (+9) as the last time Boston was receiving nine points, it knocked off Philadelphia in overtime in Game 3 of the second round in 2018.

NBA expert Tony Mejia checks in with what could be the final game of the Celtics’ season, “The Celtics face the difficult obstacle of having to find a chemistry on the road that has thus far eluded them at home. Irving is struggling to have the impact he envisioned having on “his” team after being liberated from a supporting role under LeBron James, which is why it’s looking increasingly likely that he’ll give up and seek out a better fit in New York.”

“Brad Stevens needs to get everyone on the same page early and have a group in mind he’s going to want to turn to in case the game is spiraling away. Against a team that led the NBA in double-digit wins and margin of victory, that’s going to be important given the Bucks’ approach of stepping on the throat of teams at the new Fiserv Forum. Keep all this in mind when weighing whether to lay the big number,” Mejia said.

Western Conference Semifinals – Game 5 (Series tied 2-2)

Houston at Golden State (TNT, 10:35 p.m. ET)

Apparently, the Western Conference second round series between the Warriors and Rockets hasn’t started yet. Golden State won the first two games at Oracle Arena, while Houston responded with a pair of victories at Toyota Center to even up its series at 2-2. Now, the two Western powers travel back to Oakland as the two-time defending champions look to avoid their first three-game losing streak in the playoffs for the first time since blowing a 3-1 lead to the Cavaliers in the 2016 Finals.

Houston held off Golden State in overtime to grab Game 3 and get back into the series, but the Rockets were not going to allow the Warriors to take a 3-1 advantage. The Rockets built a 13-point second quarter advantage and led 61-54 at halftime thanks to 18 points from James Harden. Houston held a 17-point cushion in the third quarter before Golden State made a furious comeback to cut the deficit to two points with 19 seconds remaining on a three-pointer by Stephen Curry.

Harden split a pair of free throws to go up three as Curry hoisted a three-pointer to tie the game in the final seconds, but missed as the Rockets held on for a 112-108 victory and the cover as one-point favorites. Harden finished with 38 points, including 6-of-17 from three-point range, while Eric Gordon overcame a 2-of-12 performance from downtown to post 20 points.

Golden State was limited to 8-of-33 shooting from long distance (24%), but Curry finally busted out after three subpar efforts by scoring 30 points. Kevin Durant continued his hot scoring run with 34 points, but Klay Thompson didn’t contribute much by putting up 11 points on 5-of-15 shooting. The Warriors didn’t help themselves at the free throw line by misfiring on seven attempts, their most misses in any game during the postseason.

After watching the ‘under’ easily cash in the opener of this series, the ‘over’ has cashed in the last three games and bettors riding the high side certainly had to sweat out a couple of those outcomes. The total for Game 5 opened at 220 and Chris David of VegasInsider.com provides his thoughts on Wednesday’s number.

He said, “We finally saw the Houston offense click in this series at home as it averaged 119 PPG in the two games from the Toyota Center. That average was certainly helped with shots from distance as Houston hit 35 bombs from 3-point land in their victories. The bigger issue for the Rockets has been their inability to score at Oracle Arena in the playoffs and that’s a large part of the reason why they haven’t been able to get past the Warriors. Since the 2015 postseason, they’ve played 11 games in the Bay Area and Houston is averaging 94 PPG. That lack of offense has resulted in a 1-10 record and not surprisingly, the ‘under’ has gone 9-2 in those games.”

“To be fair, this year’s Rockets squad has looked a tad sharper in their trips to Oracle. They scored 135 and 118 points in a pair of regular season wins and while losing Game 1 and 2 of this series, they did finish with 100 and 109 points. The issue with those playoff losses is that they came out flat and were held to just 19 and 20 points in the first quarter of the setbacks. Can Houston carry over the offensive momentum to Game 5? Past history doesn’t look great for it but the difference of this year’s Warriors team is their defense, which allowed 111 PPG in the regular season and 115.4 PPG in the playoffs. My lean would be to ride the hot team and play the Houston Team Total Over (107) on Wednesday.”

Since 2015, the Warriors are 2-1 SU/ATS in Game 5’s of a series tied at 2-2, as the two victories have come at Oracle Arena. The lone loss in this stretch came on the road at Houston in last season’s conference finals, but Golden State went on to win the final two games of the series. The last time Houston played a Game 5 on the road with the series even at 2-2, the Rockets fell in overtime to the Spurs, 110-107 as a 5 ½-point underdog in the 2017 second round.

**Udog** · 05-08-2019, 09:02 AM

509Boston -510 Milwaukee
MILWAUKEE is 45-26 ATS (16.4 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game in the last 3 seasons.

511Houston -512 Golden State
HOUSTON is 43-23 ATS (17.7 Units) in road games after playing a home game in the last 3 seasons.

NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, May 8

Boston @ Milwaukee

Game 509-510
May 8, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
115.121
Milwaukee
133.905
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 18
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 9
218
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-9); Over

Houston @ Golden State

Game 511-512
May 8, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
119.677
Golden State
133.246
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 13 1/2
212
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 6
219 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-6); Under

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, May 8

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BOSTON (54 - 36) at MILWAUKEE (67 - 23) - 5/8/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 54-33 ATS (+17.7 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 45-30 ATS (+12.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 29-18 ATS (+9.2 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
MILWAUKEE is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 44-28 ATS (+13.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 103-82 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 33-21 ATS (+9.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 79-59 ATS (+14.1 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 51-34 ATS (+13.6 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 148-112 ATS (+24.8 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1996.
BOSTON is 242-187 ATS (+36.3 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
BOSTON is 55-42 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 73-57 ATS (+10.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 67-112 ATS (-56.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 13-8 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 11-10 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
13 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (59 - 32) at GOLDEN STATE (63 - 29) - 5/8/2019, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 90-64 ATS (+19.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
HOUSTON is 29-18 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 41-27 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 39-52 ATS (-18.2 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 35-47 ATS (-16.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 18-27 ATS (-11.7 Units) in home games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 49-65 ATS (-22.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-47 ATS (-20.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 16-26 ATS (-12.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 32-41 ATS (-13.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 12-9 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 11-11 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
14 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, May 8

Milwaukee’s bench was +52 in its Game 4 win; Bucks are up 3-1 in series, can end things with a home win here. Celtics lost three of last four visits to Milwaukee; underdogs covered four of last five series games. Irving was only 7-22 from floor; will this be his last game with Boston? Irving/Brown shot combined 25-69 from floor in last two games. Bucks scored 119.7 ppg in losing last three games; they won/covered four of last five road games. Milwaukee won six of last seven games overall, covering three of last four at home. Five of their last seven games went over the total.

Home side won all four Houston-Golden State games; over is 2-0-1 in last three. Rockets shot 35-92 (38%) on arc in Games 3-4, after shooting 31-87 (35.6%) in Games 1-2. Houston took 50 3’s, 39 2’s in Monday’s win; their bench outscored Golden State’s 18-11. Rockets lost four of last five road games (1-4 vs spread, under 4-1). Warriors split last six games overall, split last four home games, losing twice to Clippers. Curry was 4-14 on arc in Game 4, was 6-23 in Games 3-4. Over is 6-2-1 in Golden State’s last nine games, 3-6-1 in Houston’s last ten. Warriors’ bench was only 4-8 from floor in Game 4.

NBA

Wednesday, May 8

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Trend Report
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Boston Celtics
Boston is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Boston is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Boston's last 13 games on the road
Boston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Boston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Boston's last 16 games when playing Milwaukee
Boston is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Boston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Milwaukee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Milwaukee's last 15 games
Milwaukee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Boston
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Milwaukee's last 16 games when playing Boston
Milwaukee is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games when playing at home against Boston
Milwaukee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Boston

Houston Rockets
Houston is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games
Houston is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 13 games when playing Golden State
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Houston is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Golden State is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games
Golden State is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games at home
Golden State is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Golden State's last 16 games at home
Golden State is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Golden State's last 13 games when playing Houston
Golden State is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Houston
Golden State is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 7 games when playing at home against Houston

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Announcement

Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/8

Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/8

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