Announcement

**Udog** · 05-06-2019, 09:02 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

— Nuggets 116, Trailblazers 112— Murray scored 34 points for Denver.

— Raptors 101, 76ers 96— Non-Leonard Raptors shot 39.3%, an improvement.

— Braves 3, Marlins 1 (10)— Miami falls to 9-24; Inciarte’s double won the game.

— Red Sox 9, White Sox 2— Boston scored seven times in 8th inning.

— Tigers 5, Royals 2 (10)— Brandon Dixon hit a walkoff tater for Detroit.

— Rockies 8, Diamondbacks 7— Colorado scored five times in 8th inning.

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Armadillo: Monday's Den: Early Week 1 NFL trends……

Green Bay @ Chicago— Packers won last four season openers, but lost five of last seven road openers; over is 11-2 in their last 13 RO’s. Chicago started 0-1 the last five years; they lost four of last five home openers (under 3-1-1).

Atlanta @ Minnesota— Falcons won three of last four road openers; they split last eight season openers. Five of their last six RO’s stayed under. Minnesota won four of last five season openers; they won/covered their last four home openers- Vikings’ last five HO’s stayed under.

Washington @ Philadelphia— Redskins snapped a 5-game skid on Opening Day LY; they won last three road openers. Over is 7-3 in their last ten RO’s. Philly started 1-0 in seven of last eight seasons; they won four of last five home openers (under 4-1).

Buffalo at Jets— Bills are opening on road for first time in five years; they lost last three road openers, scoring 7-3-3 points. Since 2002, they’re 9-7 vs spread as an underdog in their RO. Jets won six of their last eight home openers.

Baltimore @ Miami— Ravens won last three Week 1 games by combined score of 80-10; they’re 7-4 vs spread in last 11 road openers. Over is 8-3-1 in their last dozen RO’s. Miami covered five of its last six home openers (4-2 SU). Dolphins’ last ten home openers stayed under the total; nine of their last ten RO’s went over.

San Francisco @ Tampa Bay— 49ers lost last four road openers (1-3 vs spread), losing by average of 13.8 ppg; four of their last six road openers stayed under. Tampa Bay won its last two Week 1 games, scoring 31-48 points; they didn’t play in Week 1 in 2017 because of a hurricane. Arians was 2-3 in openers while he was Arizona’s coach.

Kansas City @ Jacksonville— Chiefs won last four season openers; they covered five of last six road openers. Over is 5-3 in last eight RO’s. Jacksonville won its last two season openers, but lost six of last seven home openers- they’re 3-9 vs spread in 12 HO’s. Four of their last five home openers went over.

Tennessee @ Cleveland— Since re-joining NFL in 1999, Browns are 1-18-1 in Week 1; they tied Steelers in LY’s opener. Cleveland did cover five of last seven home openers. Titans lost last three season openers, but won/covered five of last six road openers.

Rams @ Carolina— Under McVay, Rams won their season openers 46-9/33-13; since 2000, they’re 4-15 vs spread in road openers (4-5 in last nine). Four of their last five road openers stayed under total. Carolina won its last five home openers, allowing 8-3 point last two years; they won four of last five season openers. Under is 5-1 in their last six HO’s.

Detroit @ Arizona— Detroit started six of last eight seasons 1-0; Lions covered last three road openers; over is 9-4-1 in their last 14. Cardinals lost last three home openers, scoring 14.7 ppg; six of their last seven home openers stayed under.

Cincinnati @ Seattle— Seahawks won their last ten home openers (8-2 vs spread); under is 15-2-1 in their last 18 HO’s. Bengals won four of last five road openers; eight of their last nine RO’s went over total. Cincy won four of last five Week 1 games. Seattle

Indianapolis @ Chargers— Colts lost seven of last nine road openers; they’ve started last five seasons 0-1. Indy’s last three season openers went over. Chargers lost last two home openers and winning six of previous seven; 13 of their last 16 HO’s went over. Bolts started last three seasons 0-1.

Giants @ Dallas— Giants lost seven of last eight season openers; they’re playing road opener in Dallas for 6th time in last seven years. NY is 2-7 in last nine RO’s overall, 1-4 in last five RO’s here- their last three RO’s stayed under. Dallas won six of last eight home openers; they split last ten season openers, with four of last five staying under.

Pittsburgh @ New England— Pitt opens on road for 5th straight year. Since 1997, Steelers are 1-8-1 vs spread when an underdog in their road opener; five of their last six RO’s stayed under. Patriots won 15 of last 17 home openers, but are 2-4-1 vs spread in last seven (under 5-2). NE started 13 of last 15 seasons 1-0, losing in ’14/’17.

Houston @ New Orleans— Saints started last five seasons 0-1; NO lost its last four home openers and were favored in three of them- last three went over total, with Saints giving up 35-36-48 points. Texans lost three of last four road openers (under 4-0); in franchise history, they’re 4-8 vs spread in RO’s.

Denver @ Oakland— Broncos are opening on road for first time since 2010; they won last seven season openers, but obviously, all of them were in Denver. Broncos are 7-8 in last 15 road openers, with three of last four going over total. Raiders lost four of last five home openers; since 2003, they’re 4-12 vs spread in HO’s, with four of last five going over.

**Udog** · 05-06-2019, 09:04 AM

**Udog** · 05-06-2019, 09:10 AM

501Milwaukee -502 Boston
BOSTON is 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) in home games in playoff games over the last 2 seasons.

503Golden State -504 Houston
GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent in the current season.

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, May 6

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MILWAUKEE (66 - 23) at BOSTON (54 - 35) - 5/6/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 213-259 ATS (-71.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
BOSTON is 103-81 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 60-42 ATS (+13.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 55-41 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 73-56 ATS (+11.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 42-30 ATS (+9.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
MILWAUKEE is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
MILWAUKEE is 143-104 ATS (+28.6 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.
MILWAUKEE is 64-39 ATS (+21.1 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 43-28 ATS (+12.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 42-26 ATS (+13.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 13-7 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 10-10 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
13 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (63 - 28) at HOUSTON (58 - 32) - 5/6/2019, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 39-51 ATS (-17.1 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 49-64 ATS (-21.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-46 ATS (-19.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 16-25 ATS (-11.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 32-40 ATS (-12.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
HOUSTON is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) in home games this season.
HOUSTON is 28-18 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 40-27 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 72-49 ATS (+18.1 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 90-63 ATS (+20.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
HOUSTON is 13-24 ATS (-13.4 Units) in home games after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 11-9 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 11-10 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
14 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, May 6

Antetokounmpo got to foul line 40 times in last two games, after taking only 10 FT’s in Game 1; Greek Freak scored 32, with 13 rebounds, 8 assists in Game 3 road win. Hill scored 21 in 29:00 off bench Friday. Milwaukee lost three of last five visits to Beantown; home side won 11 of last 13 series games; Bucks won six of last seven games overall, covering last four road games. irving/Brown shot combined 14-36 in Game 3, are 23-66 last two games. Boston was +10 in 31:00 with Brown on floor, -17 in 17:00 he was out. Celtics are 5-2-1 vs spread in last eight games overall. Five of last seven series games went over the total.

NBA

Monday, May 6

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Trend Report
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Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Milwaukee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games
Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Boston
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Milwaukee's last 15 games when playing Boston
Milwaukee is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Boston
Milwaukee is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 9 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston Celtics
Boston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Boston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Boston's last 23 games
Boston is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Boston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games at home
Boston is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Milwaukee
Boston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Boston's last 15 games when playing Milwaukee
Boston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Boston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 9 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Golden State is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Golden State is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games on the road
Golden State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Golden State's last 12 games when playing Houston
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Golden State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston Rockets
Houston is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
Houston is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 12 games at home
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 12 games when playing Golden State
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State

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**Udog** · 05-06-2019, 09:43 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Monday, May 6

Milwaukee @ Boston

Game 501-502
May 6, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
126.417
Boston
122.609
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 4
227
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 1 1/2
220 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(+1 1/2); Over

Golden State @ Houston

Game 503-504
May 6, 2019 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
127.639
Houston
125.555
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 2
232
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
221
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(+1 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 05-06-2019, 12:16 PM

Monday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Eastern Conference Semifinals – Game 4 (Bucks lead 2-1)

Milwaukee at Boston (TNT, 7:05 p.m. ET)

The Celtics surprised the team with the best record in the NBA in the Eastern Conference semifinals opener by routing the Bucks, 112-90. However, it’s Boston now sitting in a 2-1 hole against Milwaukee after dropping consecutive games to the Bucks, while losing a rare home game in the playoffs.

When these teams hooked up in the first round last season, the home squad posted a perfect 7-0 record, capped off by Boston winning Game 7 at TD Garden. Through three games in the second round, the home team has lost two of three times, as Boston fell to Milwaukee on Friday, 123-116 to suffer its playoff defeat in Beantown since Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last season to Cleveland.

The Celtics lost for the second time in the previous 14 home playoff contests in Game 3 in spite of holding a 12-point first half advantage. The Bucks overcame a 46-34 deficit to cut the Boston lead to 56-55 at halftime, while using their trademark third quarter run (40-31) to lead heading into the fourth quarter.

Giannis Antetokounmpo put together his best game of the series for Milwaukee with 32 points, 13 rebounds, and eight assists. The last time the Celtics lost a home playoff game, George Hill was on the opposing side with the Cavaliers. In Game 3, Hill posted a 21-point effort off the bench, which is two points more than he produced in the first two games combined.

Kyrie Irving struggled from the floor for Boston by hitting 8-of-22 shots, but the All-Star guard knocked down 11 free throws to lead the Celtics with 29 points. Jayson Tatum added 20 points for the Celtics, although he misfired on all five of his three-point attempts. The two teams combined to attempt 68 free throws as the Bucks won in spite of missing 12 shots at the charity stripe.

Chris David was impressed with Milwaukee’s win on Friday and he believes the Bucks can go up 3-1 on Monday.

He explained his handicap, “It’s apparent that defense doesn’t win championships in the NBA these days, rather shooting and the Bucks firepower has been on display in each of the last two games in this series. They’ve hit 35 bombs from 3-point land in the wins and that’s led to a pair of 123-point performances. Milwaukee shooting guard Khris Middleton has connected on 65 percent (13-of-20) shots from distance and it’s become apparent that the absence of Marcus Smart for the Celtics has been felt on the defensive side of the ball in this matchup.”

David added, “The betting public is expecting Boston to earn the win in Game 4 and make it a best-of-three series headed back to Milwaukee at 2-2. While that lean could be argued based on the Celtics strong record at home, a couple trends has me pumping the breaks. For starters, Boston is just 19-16 off a loss this season. Second, how do you go against the Bucks as underdogs? Milwaukee is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when catching points and Giannis sat out one of those losses. In the other two defeats, both came by exactly four points. If you’re looking for other trends to back the visitor in Game 4, make a note that Milwaukee went 11-2 on Monday this season while Boston struggled to a 6-7 mark in that spot.”

The ”halftime adjustments” are certainly working for Milwaukee, according to NBA expert Tony Mejia, “The Celtics face a must-win given the circumstances, but have to solve the third-quarter spell the Bucks have cast over them the past two games, outscoring them 79-49. Perhaps getting Smart back will help set a better tone coming out of the break, but Milwaukee outscored Detroit in every one of its first-round games and ended up with a combined margin of 134-73. The Celtics won the series opener by dominating the third quarter but it’s hard to imagine that getting another 3-point barrage from Al Horford, Marcus Morris and Jaylen Brown is sustainable. Riding Milwaukee for the quarter and the second-half is highly recommended.”

Boston has won six consecutive playoff games under Brad Stevens when coming off back-to-back losses since getting swept by Cleveland in the opening round back in 2015. Milwaukee has won and covered in all seven playoff victories, as the last time the Bucks lost as a road underdog and failed to cover came at Boston back on November 1 in a 117-113 defeat as 2 ½-point ‘dogs.

Western Conference Semifinals – Game 4 (Warriors lead 2-1)

Golden State at Houston (TNT, 9:35 p.m. ET)

The home team has won each of the first three games between the Warriors and Rockets as Houston finally broke through on Saturday night. The Rockets staved off the two-time defending champions, 126-121 in overtime to cash as 3 ½-point favorites and improve to 4-0 at the Toyota Center in the playoffs.

Houston built a 13-point third quarter advantage before Golden State posted a 15-2 run to grab a 94-93 edge only two minutes into the fourth quarter. The two Western powers went back and forth until Andre Iguodala’s three-pointer put Golden State in front, 112-110 with 45 seconds remaining. James Harden knocked down a pair of free throws on the following possession to force overtime as the Rockets outscored the Warriors, 14-9 in the extra five minute session to grab their second cover in the series.

Harden led the Rockets with 41 points, but his former Thunder teammate Kevin Durant put together a 46-point night for his third 40+ point performance of the postseason. Durant has been fantastic during the postseason but the same can’t be said for his superstar teammate Stephen Curry, who has not scored more than 20 points in a game against Houston. Curry was limited to 17 points on 7-of-23 shooting, including 2-of-9 from three-point range, but Draymond Green stepped up with 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists for his second triple-double of the playoffs.

The Warriors have bounced back nicely off a loss during this postseason by picking up victories of 27 and 19 points (both on the road) against the Clippers. Dating back to the 2017 playoffs, Golden State has won seven of eight games off a defeat, with all three victories on the road coming by double-digits.

Mejia says that Golden State needs to figure out the Curry situation to be successful in this series, “It will be interesting to see how Steve Kerr approaches getting Curry off after his lack of rhythm ultimately helped cost the Warriors Game 3, but with the Rockets certain to sell out and run extra bodies at him, it’s going to be important that Iguodala and Green take advantage of open looks. Both did their part in helping put Golden State in position to claim Game 3, while Eric Gordon and Iman Shumpert stepped up similarly for the Rockets.”

“If those four can continue efficiently punishing the opposing defense for trying to take away more accomplished scorers, the pace is likely to be similar to Game 3, which produced an ‘over’ in regulation. If you’re of the opinion that can’t continue, there’s a chance this game gets bogged down multiple times to allow the low-side to thrive,” Mejia notes.

The last time Golden State dropped consecutive road playoff games occurred in the 2016 Western Conference Finals against Oklahoma City in Games 3 and 4 of that series, while Houston defeated Golden State in back-to-back contests in last season’s Western Conference Finals before losing the final two games of the series.

Announcement

Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/6

Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/6

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