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**Udog** · 05-04-2019, 08:15 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

More spreads on some random NFL games this fall:

— Week 10: Seahawks @ San Francisco (-2.5)

— Week 11: Steelers @ Cleveland (-3)

— Week 12: Cowboys @ New England (-6.5)

— Week 13: Bears (-3) @ Detroit

— Week 14: Giants @ Philadelphia (-8.5)

— Week 15: Jets @ Baltimore (-6)

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Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind…….

13) A 14-year old kid named Yang Kuang played in the European Tour event in China this week; he made the cut by a stroke, making a 15-foot putt on the last hole to finish the two days -1.

They show the kid get up and down from the bunker; he isn’t very big, but what a future he has, to be able to hold his own against pros when he is just starting high school.

12) So I’m having lunch at Denny’s Friday, and the couple in the next booth is having a fairly big argument; they’re newlyweds, and the Mrs is “stressed out”, but they can’t agree on why she is stressed out, which stresses her out even further. Neither person is happy.

This goes on for a while, then they mercifully ask for the check, take their argument elsewhere. Hopefully they have a comfortable couch in their home, seeing how the Mr figured to be sleeping there Friday night. Oy.

11) The dictionary defines “scapegoat” this way:

“a person who is blamed for the wrongdoings, mistakes, or faults of others, especially for reasons of expediency.”

Or in the case of the Washington Nationals, pitching coach Derek Lilliquist, who got told to take a hike Thursday after Washington stumbled to a 13-17 start.

Not his fault Bryce Harper signed in Philly.

10) Braves 7, Marlins 2— Last year, when Ronald Acuna was batting leadoff and hitting lot of homers, Jose Urena of Miami drilled him with the first pitch of a game and got tossed. Lot of words were exchanged since then. This game was the first time since then that Urena faced Atlanta.

Bottom of 2nd inning, Urena comes to bat and the first pitch is behind him, which wasn’t very subtle- Urena actually did a good job to avoid the pitch. Home plate ump immediately tosses Braves’ P Kevin Gausman out of the game, which didn’t go over well with the Atlanta dugout.

9) You know the home team is pretty sad when their TV people send the roving reporter out to promote the stadium’s concession stands in the 2nd inning, and during her report, there is no one else in the shot. No one. Zero. Bupkis.

Marlins’ home games are like the old joke, that if you’re an escaped convict, that would be a good place to hide out, since no one would think to look for anyone there.

8) With more strikeouts/home runs in baseball, that means fewer balls in play; does that lead to teams play worse fielders, since they’re going to get less action?

Milwaukee is playing Mike Moustakas at 2B, Travis Shaw at 3B; I’m guessing they have to have a 2B with better range than Moustakas somewhere in their system.

7) NFL and FOX agreed to fewer, but longer commercial breaks during next year’s Super Bowl. Four commercial breaks per quarter instead of five, with each running for 2.5 minutes instead of two minutes. Overall, same amount of commercials will be shown.

6) Detroit Lions’ trainer quit this week, to pursue “other opportunities”; the guy had spent 25 years in the NFL, the last five in Detroit. He was replaced by somebody from U of Michigan, who had previously spent time with the Patriots, Giants. Go figure. Matt Patricia spent a long time with the Patriots.

I may be a conspiracy theorist here, but guys don’t quit jobs like that, not when they’ve spent 25 years in the league. New head coach comes in, and after one season the trainer “quits”. It will read that he jumped ship, but the suspicion here is that he got pushed.

5) Hope for New Jersey Jets’ fans this season:

Since 2000, Jets head coaches, 1st year and then after……

2000 Al Groh First year: 9-7 Only lasted one year
2001 Herm Edwards: First year: 10-6 Rest of time: 29-35
2006: Eric Mangini: First year: 10-6 Rest of time: 13-19
2008: Rex Ryan: First year: 9-7 Rest of time: 37-43
2015: Todd Bowles: First year: 10-6 Rest of time: 14-33
2019 will be Adam Gase’s first year as Jets’ coach.

4) Cincinnati Reds scored total of nine runs in Tyler Mahle’s first six starts, which explains why they lost five of those games. Mahle is 0-4, 4.09 with a 1.30 WHIP; he hasn’t been terrible, just hasn’t gotten any support whatsoever.

3) Cubs 4, Cardinals 0– Kyle Hendricks threw an 81-pitch complete game, the fewest pitches in a complete game since Aaron Cook in 2012.

2) Giants 12, Reds 11 (11)— Cincinnati led 8-0 in 3rd inning, 11-7 in 8th inning but lost, day after splitting pair of 1-0 games in New York. Stephen Vogt went 3-3 with three runs scored for SF, in a game he didn’t enter until the fifth inning.

1) The governor of Montana signed a sports betting bill this week, the first state this year to pass a sports betting bill. Tennessee will also have sports betting soon; governors in Iowa, Indiana have similar bills on their desks.

Montana expects to have their system up for the NFL season.

**Udog** · 05-04-2019, 08:19 AM

**Udog** · 05-04-2019, 08:23 AM

589Golden State -590 Houston
GOLDEN STATE is 64-83 ATS (-27.3 Units) after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games in the last 3 seasons.

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, May 4

Golden State @ Houston

Game 589-590
May 4, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
128.453
Houston
133.986
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 5 1/2
229
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3 1/2
221 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-3 1/2); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 4

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GOLDEN STATE (63 - 27) at HOUSTON (57 - 32) - 5/4/2019, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 39-50 ATS (-16.0 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 22-34 ATS (-15.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 49-63 ATS (-20.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-45 ATS (-18.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
HOUSTON is 27-18 ATS (+7.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 72-48 ATS (+19.2 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 90-62 ATS (+21.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
HOUSTON is 114-148 ATS (-48.8 Units) in home games against Pacific division opponents since 1996.
HOUSTON is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 10-9 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 11-9 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
14 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, May 4

Houston was 31-87 (35.6%) on arc in losing Games 1-2; Rockets won their last 10 home games, covering four of last five. Warriors won four of last five road games (3-2 vs spread). Golden State won its last three games with the Rockets by 2-4-6 points; they’re 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Houston. Nine of last 11 series games stayed under the total. Golden State won 12 of its last 15 games overall; five of their last seven games went over. Six of last eight Houston games stayed under. Harden got cut near his eye in Game 2, took nine less shots than in Game 1; Curry dislocated finger on his left hand, was only 6-16 from floor.

NBA

Saturday, May 4

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Trend Report
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Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 7 games
Golden State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Golden State's last 11 games when playing Houston
Golden State is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Houston
Golden State is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston Rockets
Houston is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
Houston is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 11 games at home
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 11 games when playing Golden State
Houston is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games when playing at home against Golden State
Houston is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing at home against Golden State

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**Udog** · 05-04-2019, 10:21 AM

Saturday's Playoff Tips
Chris David

Western Conference Semifinals – Game 3 (Warriors lead 2-0)

Golden State at Houston (ABC, 8:35 p.m. ET)

Many pundits believed that this could be the year that the Rockets finally get over the hump and defeat the Warriors. After back-to-back wins by Golden State at home, Houston faces a 0-2 hole and knows that Saturday’s Game 3 at the Toyota Center is a must-win situation.

After losing a tightly contested 104-100 decision in Game 1 on Saturday, the Rockets came out flat on Tuesday and suffered a 115-109 setback in Game 2.

NBA expert Tony Mejia believes Chris Paul and James Harden have to find the right balance to keep the Warriors from getting too comfortable on the defensive end since isolations can make Houston easier to guard and can lead to stagnant play due to lack of ball movement.

“In attempting to get Harden going, Houston hasn’t done Paul any favors in terms of helping him find a rhythm as a shooter or playmaker. The All-Star point guard who was brought in to take some of the pressure off Harden in order to keep him fresher, but he’s shooting 27 percent from 3-point range this postseason (11-for-41) while averaging just six assists and 4.7 turnovers per game. Even if Harden wasn’t dealing with an eye issue, he’d need more help than he’s been getting. It might be time for Mike D’Antoni to let Paul run the offense and let Harden play decoy since it might help other Rockets get going at home. The first quarter will be telling, especially with Clint Capela expected to remain in the lineup despite being such a liability in Oakland against the “Hamptons Five” that Steve Kerr is riding as his primary group. We might see Danuel House and Austin Rivers replace Capela if the Rockets look to match up by going small, which could lead to even more 3-pointers flying, so keep that in mind for totals purposes.”

The eye issues for Harden aren’t expected to be an issue at least that’s what the oddsmakers believe. After catching +6 and +5 in two games at Golden State, the Rockets are listed as -3 ½-point home favorites for Game 3.

The nine-point swing from Oakland to Houston certainly opened up my eyes and going back to the 2015 NBA Playoffs, the Rockets haven’t been favored by more than 2 ½-points over the Warriors in their last three postseason matchups. Is the line telling us that Houston’s the play?

Houston went 31-10 in the regular season in front of their fans and 3-0 in the first round of the playoffs against Utah. For our purposes, Houston has gone 25-17-2 against the spread and that includes a 2-1 mark in the postseason versus the Jazz.

Despite being the reigning two-time defending champions, Golden State was an underdog seven times this season and it went 3-4 SU and 4-3 ATS. The Warriors did close the season with three consecutive wins and four straight covers in this role.

Golden State went 3-0 on the road in the first round against the Clippers while covering two of those games. In the first meeting (Game 3) at the Staples Center, the Warriors put on a display and captured a 27-point win (132-105) while taking the crowd out of the game quickly.

Was it a coincidence or a trend? Kevin Rogers of VegasInsider.com dug up a solid nugget on Golden State and he answered that question for us.

He said, “The Warriors have fared well in Game 3’s of a playoff series since 2017, compiling an 8-1 record both SU and ATS. That includes a 7-1 SU and ATS record away from Oracle Arena. The only defeat in this stretch came at New Orleans last season in the second round, 119-100 as five-point favorites. In three Game 3’s against Houston in the postseason dating back to 2015, the Warriors are 2-1 both SU and ATS, including a 115-80 rout of the Rockets in the 2015 conference finals as a short underdog. Houston and Golden State have split eight playoff games at Toyota Center since 2015, while the underdog has covered five times.”

After watching Game 1 easily go ‘under’ (224), bettors chasing the ‘over’ in Game 2 (222) caught a big break with a 67-point fourth quarter and 27 of those were posted in the final three minutes. Total players have certainly seen that movie before and the opening number of 222 for Game 3 has held steady as of Saturday morning.

Houston watched the ‘under’ go 2-0-1 at home in the first round versus the Jazz and those results could be overlooked since Utah (93.6 PPG) couldn’t buy a shot on the road. In last year’s Western Conference Finals versus the Warriors, the ‘under’ went 3-1 in the four games. Houston averaged 119.5 points per game in its two wins but just 99 PPG in the losses. Golden State has watched the ‘under’ go 9-3 in its last 12 road playoff games.

It’s rare to see teams get three days off in the middle of a playoff series and Houston actually struggled in these spots this season. The Rockets went 1-2 when playing on three plus days of rest and the offense only averaged 105.7 points per game. Meanwhile, the Warriors were 2-0 in these situations and they averaged a blistering 133 PPG.

Sticking with other trends, Houston owned an 11-5 record on Saturday this season while Golden State was 9-4. For those of you following the NBA this season, you’re probably aware of ABC’s primetime coverage on Saturday. They had eight nationally televised games and Houston and Golden State were a participant in seven of them. The Rockets went 2-1 while the Warriors went 4-1 and the loss came on Feb. 23 at home to the Rockets (118-112). The ‘under’ cashed in that game and the low side was 6-1 in the seven contests involving the pair.

Considering Golden State can essentially end Houston’s hopes with a victory, VI’s Mejia believes it’s worth thinking ahead entering such a defining game.

“The Warriors can really send a message with a victory here since it would put the Rockets in a massive hole while dispelling all talk of the two-time defending champs being vulnerable. The series price opened at -225 and is now at -700, so the only series future bet worth making would be to take a shot at the Rockets +500 if you believe they’re capable of getting back in the series by winning on Saturday night,” Mejia said. “There’s no way Golden State is losing four straight games, so this might be the spot to get in on the Dubs as the West champ at -400 or NBA champ at -200 considering Houston really appeared to be its biggest threat in preventing their threepeat bid. It’s hard to imagine Denver or Portland pulling off an upset in the conference finals, while the East representative will have walked through some serious flames in reaching June before encountering their biggest challenge.”

Mejia added, “The current futures at Westgate involving the Warriors winning the West and the NBA title are the same as they were entering the playoffs, and I can’t imagine you’re going to find better odds going forward if Golden State prevails here and you already failed to get in just after the lost Game 5 at home against the Clippers.”

The pair will meet again from Houston on Monday in Game 4.

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Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/4

Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/4

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