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**Udog** · 05-02-2019, 08:18 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Odds to win the Wells Fargo PGA event this week:

6-1: Rory McIlroy

10-1: Jason Day

12-1: Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler

18-1: Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau

20-1: Webb Simpson

22-1: Sergio Garcia

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

13) Cleveland Browns haven’t made the NFL playoffs since 2002; they’re -$120 to make the playoffs this season, with a rookie head coach and a 2nd-year QB. That would take a pretty big leap of faith on my part, to wager on the Browns to make the 2019 playoffs.

12) Rookie QB Dwayne Haskins will wear number 7 with the Redskins, the first person to do that since Joe Theismann retired 34 years ago.

11) Royals swept a doubleheader from Tampa Bay Wednesday, 3-2/8-2; Whit Merrrifield led off bottom of the 1st inning in both games with a double. He is the first player in major leagues to do this since Scott Podsednik, in 2005 for the White Sox.

10) Part of why the Miami Marlins are terrible:
— Chris Paddack was traded for Fernando Rodney
— Domingo Germán was traded for Martin Prado
— Luis Castillo was traded for Dan Straily

They traded three really good young pitchers for older, marginal players. Then they traded Yelich, Ozuna, Stanton and didn’t get much of a return for them. Astoundingly inept.

9) Morning line favorite Omaha Beach has been scratched from the Kentucky Derby with a trapped epiglottis, which apparently is a breathing problem. Game Winner (4-1) now appears to the favorite for Saturday’s race.

8) Chicago Bears hired Brad Childress as senior offensive assistant, which helps explain why he quit as head coach of the AAF team in Atlanta, which turned out to be a good move by him, since the league folded before their first season ended.

7) Baseball injuries:
— Mets put P Jeurys Familia (shoulder) on the IL.
— Indians will put P Corey Kluber (forearm) on IL.

6) Game 2 of Rockets-Warriors was Tuesday, Game 3 isn’t till Saturday; chance for coaches to make whatever adjustments need to be made. Chance for James Harden’s eye to heal, and for Steph Curry’s left hand to feel a little better- he dislocated a finger in Tuesday’s game.

5) ESPN the Magazine is shutting down this fall; they tried very hard to be different, and they were different, but in a bad way. Too many articles on stuff not many people care about.

4) College basketball transfer portal:
— Former Vandy/Notre Dame F Matt Ryan is transferring to Chattanooga. He is a career 36.5% shooter on the arc who shot only 32.8% for Vandy LY.
— Georgia poaches grad transfer Donnell Gresham from Northeastern.

3) San Diego Padres finished April with a 17-13 record, first time since 2010 that they finished the first month of the season with a winning record.

2) Indians’ ace Corey Kluber got hit by a line drive last night, broke his right forearm and is out for a long time, a huge blow to Cleveland’s chances this season.

1) This from Ryan Spaeder:

In 2005, Braves’ C Brian McCann hit a sac fly against Paul Quantrill; Dave Roberts (now the Dodgers’ manager) caught the fly ball for San Diego.

Tuesday night, 5,001 days later, McCann flew out against Cal Quantrill, Paul’s son. also against the Padres.

**Udog** · 05-02-2019, 08:38 AM

**Udog** · 05-02-2019, 08:45 AM

581Toronto -582 Philadelphia
TORONTO is 33-17 ATS (14.3 Units) vs. division opponents in the last 3 seasons.

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, May 2

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TORONTO (63 - 26) at PHILADELPHIA (56 - 33) - 5/2/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 209-264 ATS (-81.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 145-117 ATS (+16.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 53-36 ATS (+13.4 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) after a division game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 47-30 ATS (+14.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 80-57 ATS (+17.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 47-26 ATS (+18.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 9-5 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 10-4 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, May 2

Leonard was 13-24 from floor; rest of Toronto’s team was 20-67 (29.9%) in 94-89 Game 2 loss; home side won six of last eight series games. 76ers’ bench outscored Raptors’ subs 26-5 in Game 2. Philly lost four of six games with Toronto this season; Raptors are 2-2 vs spread in last four visits here. Toronto is 5-2 in playoffs this month; they’re 12-3 in last 15 games overall, winning three of last four on road. Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games. 76ers won seven of their last ten games; over is 13-8 in their last 21 games.

NBA

Thursday, May 2

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Trend Report
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Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto's last 8 games
Toronto is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Toronto is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto's last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Philadelphia is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Toronto
Philadelphia is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 9 games when playing at home against Toronto

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**Udog** · 05-02-2019, 10:28 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, May 2

Toronto @ Philadelphia

Game 581-582
May 2, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
128.788
Philadelphia
124.780
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 4
201
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 1
217
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-1); Under

**StarDust Bum** · 05-02-2019, 11:19 AM

Thursday's Playoff Tips
May 2, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

Both Eastern Conference semifinal series are knotted up at 1-1 with the venues shifting to Boston and Philadelphia. After the Celtics routed the Bucks in Game 1 at Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee turned the tables on the Celtics with a 21-point blowout in Game 2 to improve to 22-1 SU and 19-4 ATS off a loss this season.

Meanwhile, the 76ers bounced back nicely from a series opening defeat at Toronto to pull even with the Raptors in Monday’s 94-89 victory as 7 ½-point underdogs at Scotiabank Arena. Philadelphia jumped out to a 51-38 halftime edge, while leading by as many as 18 points in the first half. However, Toronto rallied back to cut the deficit to two late in the third quarter. Philadelphia built back the lead to 13 points halfway through the fourth quarter, but Toronto crawled back with a chance to tie it late as Danny Green’s open three-point look bounced out.

Although the 76ers scored fewer points in their Game 2 win (94) than their Game 1 loss (95), Philadelphia ended a 14-game losing streak at Toronto dating back to 2012. Jimmy Butler led the Sixers with 30 points following a 10-point effort in the series opener, while Philadelphia won in spite of only two made field goals and 12 points from Joel Embiid. Philadelphia made less than 40% of its shots from the floor, but the Sixers stepped up at the foul line by knocking down 24-of-26 free throws.

The Raptors received huge contributions from three players and nothing from the rest of their roster. Kawhi Leonard put together a game-high 35 points, Pascal Siakam scored 21 points (on 9-of-25 shooting), and Kyle Lowry posted a 20-point effort for Toronto, who received 13 points from the other six players who took the court. The Raptors were outrebounded for the second straight game, this time by a 52-36 count after Philadelphia collected seven more boards than Toronto in the opener.

The total for Game 3 opened at 217 ½ and was quickly pushed up to 219 ½ even though the ‘under’ has gone 2-0 in this series. Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his thoughts on the ‘over/under’ for Thursday’s third installment.

“I thought the oddsmakers sent out a solid number and I was a little surprised that the early action jumped on the ‘over’ in Game 3. Toronto’s defense has been lights out in the playoffs and that’s led to a 6-1 ‘under’ mark. In their two road games at Orlando in the first round, the Raptors held the Magic to 93 and 85 points. Will the unit come to play again while stepping up in class at Philadelphia? Your answer to that question will likely factor into both your side and total leans,” said David.

“Philadelphia was one of the best home teams (31-10) in the regular season and it went 2-1 versus Brooklyn while scoring 145 and 122 points. I note those results because the key to the 76ers is their offense and they’ve had a huge difference in scoring at home (118.6 PPG) than on the road (111.8 PPG). Philadelphia has used its homecourt to its advantage this season, especially out of the gate in the first quarter. The 76ers lead the league with 31.2 PPG at home in the first 12 minutes and I’d ride that trend on Thursday, plus I would look at the Philadelphia Team Total Over (108) as well.”

VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia checks in with his thoughts on Game 3, “Only the Warriors and Bucks had a better regular-season road record than the Raptors, who imposed their will against Orlando as a visitor twice in the first round. After stealing Game 2 despite Embiid looking like a shell of himself, Philadelphia is in excellent shape but needs Tobias Harris and J.J. Redick to join Butler in helping to spread the floor and push the pace. Toronto has shown its capable of slowing the 76ers down and can defend Embiid straight up since Marc Gasol plays him so well, so tempo should play a huge role in Game 3 and I think we’ll see the home team try to speed things up. Philadelphia played the fastest-paced series of the first round against Brooklyn but failed to crack 100 points against Toronto despite leaving Scotiabank Arena with a split.”

Since 2017, the Raptors are 1-4 in Game 3’s of a playoff series, including double-digit losses at Washington (’18 first round) and Milwaukee (’17 first round). However, Toronto ended up winning both those series in six games and clinched with the fourth victory coming on the road. In the previous three postseasons, the Raptors lost 14 of 19 games away from Scotiabank Arena before winning the first two games in the opening round against Orlando.

The 76ers and Raptors split a pair of meetings in Philadelphia this season. The Sixers routed the Raptors on December 22 at Wells Fargo Center, 126-101 as seven-point favorites, led by Embiid’s 27 points and 26 points from Ben Simmons. Leonard sat out for Toronto that night as the 76ers outscored the Raptors in the second half, 61-42.

Toronto won the second matchup in Philadelphia in February, 119-107 as 2 ½-point underdogs. Leonard converted only three field goals, but knocked down 16 free throws to lead Toronto with 24 points. The Raptors attempted 89 shots compared to 70 by Philadelphia, while the Sixers hit 38-of-41 free throw attempts. Since January 2015, the Raptors have won seven of 10 visits to Philadelphia, while the OVER has cashed seven times, although the February meeting went UNDER the total of 230 ½.

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Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/2

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/2

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