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**Udog** · 04-30-2019, 08:33 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Westgate SuperBook posted NFL win totals for 2019:

— Arizona Cardinals, 5

— Atlanta Falcons, 8.5

— Baltimore Ravens, 8.5, over -$120

— Buffalo Bills, 6.5, over -$160

— Carolina Panthers, 8, under -$120

— Chicago Bears, 9, under -$120

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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

13) 76ers 94, Raptors 89- Kawhi Leonard was 13-24 from floor; rest of Toronto’s team was 20-67 (29.9%). Series is tied, 1-1.

12) Ben Simmons is a weird player; I think he’s one of the five best passers I’ve ever seen, but it almost seems like he defiantly refuses to become a shooting threat.

In this game, Simmons played 44:00, was 3-6 from floor. No foul shots, no 3’s. He had seven rebounds, five assists. Someone who has the ball as much as Simmons does takes six shots in 44:00? Very unusual.

11) Nuggets 121, Trailblazers 113— Jokic had 37 points, nine rebounds, six assists as Denver takes the first game of this series. Nuggets are 41-5 at home this season.

10) Today’s unusual stat from Dan Hayes: Max Kepler’s 10-pitch walk in the 1st inning vs Justin Verlander Monday night was the 76th time Verlander has thrown 10 pitches in a plate appearance among the 11,497 batters (0.6%) he has faced in his great career.

9) Tennessee basketball coach Rick Barnes parlayed his dalliance with UCLA into a 5-year, $26M contract extension with the Vols.

8) Texas Tech basketball coach Chris Beard signed a six-year contract that will pay him $4.575M annually, through the 2024-25 season. His annual salary is now 4th-highest in the country, behind John Calipari, Mike Krzyzewski and Barnes.

7) Baseball injuries:
— Giants put P Derek Holland (finger) on the IL.
— Braves put P Chad Sobotka (abdomen) on the IL.
— A’s put 1B/OF Mark Canha (wrist) on the IL.
— Brewers put P Aaron Wilkerson (foot) on the IL.

6) New England Patriots ranked 25th in NFL LY with a 53.8% touchback rate on kickoffs, so it is possible that the punter they traded up to draft in the 5th round will also be used as a kickoff guy, seeing how PK Stephen Gostkowski is 35 now. Field position is important.

5) James Harden led the NBA in foul shots attempted in five of the last seven years, and finished 2nd/3rd the other two seasons.

4) Blues 4, Stars 3— St Louis wins a road game, is up 2-1 in this series.

3) Giants 3, Dodgers 2— Evan Longoria’s bases loaded double in the 7th inning was the game-winning hit.

2) Reds 5, Mets 4— Jesse Winker’s 9th-inning homer decided this one. It was the first hit that Mets’ closer Edwin Diaz allowed to a lefty batter this season.

1) I’d be curious to know how much NFL teams value if a prospect played for a winning program in college. I’m not 100% sold that playing on a winning team is that big a deal; sometimes your deficiencies can be hidden if you’re surrounded by superior athletes.

But I’d be more interested in how NFL teams feel than how I think about it.

**Udog** · 04-30-2019, 08:41 AM

**Udog** · 04-30-2019, 08:52 AM

571Boston -572 Milwaukee
BOSTON is 13-1 ATS (11.9 Units) off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons.

573Houston -574 Golden State
GOLDEN STATE is 4-19 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games on Tuesday nights in the last 3 seasons.

NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, April 30

Boston @ Milwaukee

Game 571-572
April 30, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
126.405
Milwaukee
122.621
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 4
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 7 1/2
219 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(+7 1/2); Over

Houston @ Golden State

Game 573-574
April 30, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
128.246
Golden State
124.677
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 3 1/2
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 5 1/2
220 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+5 1/2); Under

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, April 30

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BOSTON (54 - 33) at MILWAUKEE (64 - 23) - 4/30/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 51-33 ATS (+14.7 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 44-30 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 41-28 ATS (+10.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 40-26 ATS (+11.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 103-79 ATS (+16.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 79-58 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) against Central division opponents this season.
BOSTON is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 20-3 ATS (+16.7 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 55-39 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 73-54 ATS (+13.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 428-495 ATS (-116.5 Units) in home games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 211-259 ATS (-73.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 13-5 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 10-8 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
11 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (57 - 31) at GOLDEN STATE (62 - 27) - 4/30/2019, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 139-104 ATS (+24.6 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 71-48 ATS (+18.2 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 89-62 ATS (+20.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
HOUSTON is 128-96 ATS (+22.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
HOUSTON is 27-17 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 39-26 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 38-50 ATS (-17.0 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 34-47 ATS (-17.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 17-27 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 48-63 ATS (-21.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 30-45 ATS (-19.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-39 ATS (-11.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 10-8 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 10-9 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
14 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, April 30

Bucks shot 36% inside arc in 112-90 Game 1 home loss; Celtics shot 60.7% inside arc. Home team won ten of last 11 Boston-Milwaukee games; Celtics are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Wisconsin. Seven of last 11 series games went over the total. Boston covered its last six road games; four of their last five games overall stayed under total. Milwaukee won four of its last five games; they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six home games. Eight of last 11 Milwaukee games went over. Antetokounmpo was just 7-21 from floor in Game 1; they obviously need more than that from him.

Houston was 14-47 on arc in 104-100 Game 1 loss in Oakland; Durant scored 35 for Golden State. Rockets are 5-4 in their last nine games with the Warriors; they covered three of last five visits to Oakland. Nine of last ten series games stayed under the total. Golden State won 11 of its last 14 games overall; they’re 3-3 vs spread in last six home games. Four of last six Warrior games went over. Houston won eight of last 11 games overall, are 3-3 vs spread in last six road games. Six of their last seven games stayed under.

NBA

Tuesday, April 30

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Trend Report
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Boston Celtics
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 12 games on the road
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Boston's last 13 games when playing Milwaukee
Boston is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Boston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Boston's last 18 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 12 games
Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 13 games when playing Boston
Milwaukee is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Boston
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Milwaukee's last 18 games when playing at home against Boston

Houston Rockets
Houston is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
Houston is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Houston is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 10 games when playing Golden State
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Houston is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games
Golden State is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games at home
Golden State is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Golden State's last 15 games at home
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Golden State's last 10 games when playing Houston
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Golden State is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston

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**Udog** · 04-30-2019, 09:44 AM

Tuesday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Game 2 – Celtics at Bucks – 8:05 PM EST – TNT

Boston leads series, 1-0

There is only one team that has yet to lose in the playoffs and it’s the Celtics, who improved to 5-0 in the postseason after routing Milwaukee on Sunday, 112-90. It was pretty much all Boston from the opening tip-off as the Celtics led by nine after one quarter, while outscoring the top-seeded Bucks, 36-21 in the third quarter to win their third consecutive road game in the playoffs.

Boston easily cashed as eight-point underdogs after dropping all three matchups at Milwaukee in last year’s first round series. Kyrie Irving didn’t play in that seven-game series victory by the Celtics, but the All-Star guard posted a 26-point, 11-assist effort to help Boston snap a five-game losing streak at Milwaukee. Al Horford added 20 points for Boston, while Jaylen Brown scored 19 points as the Celtics shot 54% from the floor and attempted only eight free throws.

MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo was shut down by the Celtics’ defense as the Bucks’ star scored 22 points, but it came on 7-of-21 shooting from the floor. The “Greek Freak” converted only four two-point field goals, while missing five free throws as Milwaukee suffered its first loss in the playoffs after cruising past Detroit in four games of the opening round. The Bucks will not go far in the postseason if they continue to get poor offensive performances from the likes of Eric Bledsoe and Brook Lopez, who combined to score nine points of 2-of-10 shooting.

Boston continued its stellar work on the defensive end in the playoffs by limiting the opposition to less than 100 points in four of five wins, while cashing the UNDER four times. The Celtics have trailed in the second half of all five playoff contests, as Milwaukee rallied to take a 56-54 lead early in the third quarter. However, Boston scored the next 12 points to grab a 10-point advantage and never look back to improve to 5-0 in the last five playoff series openers.

Chris David picked Boston to win this series in six games and he wasn’t surprised by the Celtics taking Game 1 but he doesn’t expect the Bucks to go down 0-2 on Tuesday.

He explained his handicap for Game 2, “Milwaukee posted the best record in the regular season and it accomplished that feat by staying away from losing skids. The Bucks only dropped back-to-back games once this season and they’re a league-best 21-1 (95%) after a loss. What’s more impressive is they went 18-4 (81%) against the spread in those games, which makes you believe the Zig-Zag angle will be pressed by the betting public in Game 2.”

David added, “Sunday’s 90-point effort in the opener was just the sixth time this season that Milwaukee was held under 100 points. Not surprisingly, they went 1-5 in those games. In the first five games after the low production, the Bucks averaged 115.8 PPG but that average was helped with a 140-point effort. Defensively, I was more impressed with Mike Budenholzer’s troops as they only surrendered 104.6 PPG in the same five games. Instead of buying the Milwaukee offense to rebound in Game 2, I’d back its defense and play the Boston Team Total Under (106 ½).”

According to Dan Feldman of NBC Sports Pro Basketball Talk, the previous four road teams to win a playoff series opener by 15 or more points have gone on to lose the series. The most recent instance for this trend came last season when the Pacers destroyed the Cavaliers, 98-80 in Game 1 of the first round in Cleveland, but Indiana lost the series in seven games.

Game 2 – Rockets at Warriors – 10:35 PM EST – TNT

Golden State leads series, 1-0

For the third time in four seasons, Golden State and Houston are meeting in the playoffs. And for the third time, the Warriors captured the series opener from the Rockets as the two-time defending champions held off Houston, 104-100 on Sunday afternoon at Oracle Arena. Although Houston cashed as six-point underdogs, the Rockets had plenty of gripes with the officiating, especially on how the game was called against league MVP James Harden.

Harden led the Rockets with 35 points, as 13 of those points came at the foul line. However, he shot 9-of-28 from the field, including 4-of-16 from long distance as Harden had an opportunity to tie the game late. Harden missed the three-pointer as questions arose whether or not he was fouled by Draymond Green.

Meanwhile, Kevin Durant continued his hot scoring run for the Warriors by posting a 35-point effort following his 50-point output in the series-clinching win over the Clippers last Friday. Stephen Curry didn’t put up great numbers (18 points on 5-of-12 shooting), but he drilled a critical three-pointer with under 30 seconds remaining to give Golden State a 103-98 advantage.

The Rockets picked up their fourth cover in five meetings with the Warriors this season, while improving to 3-0 ATS at Oracle Arena. The UNDER cashed for the ninth time in the past 10 matchups dating back to Game 3 of last season’s Western Conference Finals, as the two teams easily finished UNDER the total of 224 in Game 1. Houston reached the 100-point mark for only the second time in the last seven playoff hookups with Golden State in Oakland since 2016.

The oddsmakers have adjusted the total from 224 to 220 ½ for Game 2, as the Warriors have hit the OVER in two playoff games against the Clippers coming off an UNDER.

NBA expert Tony Mejia checks in with his thoughts on tonight’s critical Game 2 by the Bay, “The Warriors and Rockets both shot terribly by their standards, which combined with a failure to call illegal closeouts in the first half, really gave the OVER no chance to clear the posted total. Chris Paul didn’t get suspended for Game 2 despite his outburst against an official, but I don’t think we’re through with the refs playing too large a role in this series. They’re being put in a no-win situation by players looking to draw whistles by kicking their feet out and defenders not allowing shooters space to land."

"There’s no way this doesn’t continue on Tuesday night, so expect a parade to the free-throw line. If everyone’s not thrown off rhythm by all the stoppages in play and we get an increase in made 3-pointers, we should see these teams approach 220 points, which is a good reason the number jumped from its opening position of 218.5,” Mejia notes.

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Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/30

Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/30

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